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2021 transfer thread

Machinator

By Machinator
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OklahomaSam
OklahomaSam

I'm sorry you all are under the impression you know how to manage a roster more so than Riley. I'll defer to this boards wealth of knowledge and experience on the matter of managing that.   Oklahoma h

OklahomaSam
OklahomaSam

I mean things could be worse, OU could be on its third coach in a decade. 

Betty Blackwell
Betty Blackwell

Found Herb Hand's account.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

 

Yeah, you can back count, but that would only really allow you to sign an extra 5 guys over 4 years, so they’re still very limited roster-wise when you take 7+ JUCOs and transfers every year like they’ve been doing for the last few classes. Those guys only last 1-2 years and then you have attrition from the HS guys you take on top of that, so it gets to a point where you struggle to get 85 scholarship players on your roster. 
 

Their strategy requires really vetting the HS guys they take and hitting on some walk ons who they can then put on scholarship after two years. 

Say you lose 5 guys of your HS class every year - and the transfers you bring in are gone after 2 years. That would give them a senior and junior class of about 18 guys each coming up which gets you to 36 - assuming you sign 25 in the next 2 classes - transfers included - (and as discussed they can sign more than that if they move it around correctly) - that gets you back over 85. Say a few guys leave early for the NFL on top of normal attrition - then you can just go 27 or 28 in those next classes to be back at 85 - or hand out a couple scholarships to walk-ons. 

And - keep in mind for 2021 that you have guys getting an extra year without the scholarship cap being raised. For every senior that stays around for year 5 that is probably a guy that you can't sign out of HS in this upcoming year. Once those super seniors leave, then in 2022 you can backfill with EE that will count towards the 2021 cap.

It seems to me like they are doing the math correctly. 

Edited by ztejas
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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19020

Posted
Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Thanks. That's still a significant work around. You'd have to have back to back classes of significantly less than 20 freshman signees before it might get dicey. 

OU has had 23, 24 and 23 kids out of high school the past 3 years. They should be fine. As I mentioned upthread they wound up with 28 in last year's cycle. Even if they stay below 20 for 2021 they could take up to 30 in 2022 (apparently there's no limit if Fud is right below)

*they also had zero transfers in 2018. I went all the way back to 2017 - the math checks out to me. They are CERTAINLY hitting that 25 number every year over that 4 year stretch, though. 

Your numbers are all way off. 247 is off on transfers and You’re including JUCOs in your HS numbers. They took 20 HS recruits in 2020 and already lost 2 guys to attrition. They suffered a good amount of attrition in the 2018 class, and they only have 15 HS recruits in the 2021 class so far. They can’t take 30 in a class because they’re signing so many transfers.  They’re taking about 7 JUCOs and transfers per year lately, which means they’d be on pace to sign about 80 HS guys per 4 years, and attrition is usually around 20%, so it becomes clear how they’d start to struggle to fill out the 85 with scholarships if they keep this pace up. It’s not dire for them right now, but things will start to get tight and they can’t afford the kind of attrition they had in 2018 in future classes. 

Edited by Burt Macklin
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49142

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Your numbers are all way off. 247 is off on transfers and You’re including JUCOs in your HS numbers. They took 20 HS recruits in 2020 and already lost 2 guys to attrition. They suffered a good amount of attrition in the 2018 class, and they only have 15 HS recruits in the 2021 class so far. They can’t take 30 in a class because they’re signing so many transfers.  They’re taking about 7 JUCOs and transfers per year lately, which means they’d be on pace to sign about 80 HS guys per 4 years, and attrition is usually around 20%, so it becomes clear how they’d start to struggle to fill out the 85 with scholarships if they keep this pace up. It’s not dire for them right now, but things will start to get right and they can’t afford the kind of attrition they had in 2018 in future classes. 

Yeah if blOU's 2020 or 2021 Classes have too many fast departures, blOU may have some significant roster issues due to bringing in so many recent transfers...

Question:  How do grad-transfers coming in count??

(Not sure they are part of the 25 per year number or not...)

Edited by LTtxfan
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Ricky's one-hitter

Ricky's one-hitter 9084

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, texifornia said:

https://247sports.com/player/mike-jones-jr-35046/

From IMG, originally Nashville. Listed as starting sam lb with Venables' kid and Tyler Simpson behind him. Must be a curricular or personal choice. I bet he'll end up the first moral victory for the new vols coach

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Burt Macklin

Burt Macklin 19020

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

Yeah if blOU's 2020 or 2021 Classes have too many fast departures, blOU may have some significant roster issues due to bringing in so many recent transfers...

Question:  How do grad-transfers coming in count??

(Not sure they are part of the 25 per year number or not...)

They count towards the 25 signees limit.

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

Posted
Posted (edited)
27 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Your numbers are all way off. 247 is off on transfers and You’re including JUCOs in your HS numbers. They took 20 HS recruits in 2020 and already lost 2 guys to attrition. They suffered a good amount of attrition in the 2018 class, and they only have 15 HS recruits in the 2021 class so far. They can’t take 30 in a class because they’re signing so many transfers.  They’re taking about 7 JUCOs and transfers per year lately, which means they’d be on pace to sign about 80 HS guys per 4 years, and attrition is usually around 20%, so it becomes clear how they’d start to struggle to fill out the 85 with scholarships if they keep this pace up. It’s not dire for them right now, but things will start to get tight and they can’t afford the kind of attrition they had in 2018 in future classes. 

Didnt notice that- thanks. Some of those jucos classify as sophomores coming in, though.

Also - everyone gets an extra year now not just seniors. That affects the moving average calculation.

Also also - redshirts affect this.

Edited by ztejas
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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49142

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Fud said:

Funny note about OU. Unless I'm missing someone, OU has 11 scholarship transfers (so far) between the 2016-2021 seasons, and all 11 of them are on offense. That might go up to 12 soon if they take Eric Gray. 

If they continue to bring in more transfers who play immediately and lose more 2nd and 3rd year players as a result, gotta believe it starts to hurt blOU's high school recruiting at some point right??

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Fud

Fud 9551

Posted
Posted

Also, I don't think OU has any spots from 2020 to count back, so with 16 commits and 3 incoming transfers, I think they have 6 spots available. I haven't followed them closely in recruiting, so I'm not sure what prospects they lead for, although it seems like they're in on a couple more transfers. 

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Fud

Fud 9551

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, LTtxfan said:

If they continue to bring in more transfers who play immediately and lose more 2nd and 3rd year players as a result, gotta believe it starts to hurt blOU's high school recruiting at some point right??

Seems like wishful thinking, but maybe 

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Fud

Fud 9551

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Fud said:

Also, I don't think OU has any spots from 2020 to count back, so with 16 commits and 3 incoming transfers, I think they have 6 spots available. I haven't followed them closely in recruiting, so I'm not sure what prospects they lead for, although it seems like they're in on a couple more transfers. 

Apparently they think they're getting Key Lawrence (not to be confused with Lawrence Keys)

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Doc Sam Beckett

Doc Sam Beckett 5792

Posted
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1 hour ago, Ricky's one-hitter said:

From IMG, originally Nashville. Listed as starting sam lb with Venables' kid and Tyler Simpson behind him. Must be a curricular or personal choice. I bet he'll end up the first moral victory for the new vols coach

He's good, but I think maybe he saw the writing on the wall with Simpson playing so well last year and Barrett Carter coming in. Still kind of odd

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

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Posted
42 minutes ago, golfclap said:

Looks like UTSA and Traylor nabbed Denzel Feaster (ILB Kansas - originally from Manor) for his 17th year of eligibility :: 

https://247sports.com/Player/Denzel-Feaster-77855/high-school-135550/

What's that saying? Do something long enough for free and you'll never work a day in your life?

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Getafix

Getafix 28554

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Fud said:

Funny note about OU. Unless I'm missing someone, OU has 11 scholarship transfers (so far) between the 2016-2021 seasons, and all 11 of them are on offense. That might go up to 12 soon if they take Eric Gray. 

 

With this staff, our next 12 will be on ... special teams.

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PGFrog

PGFrog 25

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

If they continue to bring in more transfers who play immediately and lose more 2nd and 3rd year players as a result, gotta believe it starts to hurt blOU's high school recruiting at some point right??

Guess so, but all those transfer quarterbacks and the failure to develop the high school quarterback prospects on their roster doesn't seem to have hurt their recruiting at that position. 

 

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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Fud said:

Funny note about OU. Unless I'm missing someone, OU has 11 scholarship transfers (so far) between the 2016-2021 seasons, and all 11 of them are on offense. That might go up to 12 soon if they take Eric Gray. 

Honestly, who'd have wanted to transfer in to play for Mike Stoops on that defense?

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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Your numbers are all way off. 247 is off on transfers and You’re including JUCOs in your HS numbers. They took 20 HS recruits in 2020 and already lost 2 guys to attrition. They suffered a good amount of attrition in the 2018 class, and they only have 15 HS recruits in the 2021 class so far. They can’t take 30 in a class because they’re signing so many transfers.  They’re taking about 7 JUCOs and transfers per year lately, which means they’d be on pace to sign about 80 HS guys per 4 years, and attrition is usually around 20%, so it becomes clear how they’d start to struggle to fill out the 85 with scholarships if they keep this pace up. It’s not dire for them right now, but things will start to get tight and they can’t afford the kind of attrition they had in 2018 in future classes. 

I finally went back and hand separated the last five OU classes. The HS/JUCO numbers are from 247. The EE numbers are from publications covering the respective years' class. The transfer numbers are from going through the OU roster for each year.

I don't see the average of seven so please tell me where I'm missing people. 247 lists some "transfers" that are people who transferred to OU but never appear on the official roster even. Do you think some of the difference may be count walkons that have eventually earned scholarships?

2017: total 28
HS 25 (EE 11), JUCO 3, Transfer 1 (Badet)

2018: 23
HS 21 (EE 8), JUCO 2, Transfers 0

2019: 24
HS 21 (EE 8), JUCO 3, Transfer 2

2020: 23
HS 20 (EE 11), JUCO 3, Transfer 3

2021: 16
HS 15 (EE 9), JUCO 1, Transfer 4 (so far; it hasn't been report as to whether the OG from AZ is scholarship)

Several years ago, I looked back at attrition of CFB classes at Big12 schools and peer programs in other conferences. I found that only about 50% of high school enrollees from OU complete four years. From 2015, here are the numbers (complete four years/total enrollees). It appears similar (35/67).
2015: 15/25
2016: 5/17
2017: 15/25
so far...
2018: 13/21
2019: 17/21

Edited by quigley
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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, Fud said:

Also, I don't think OU has any spots from 2020 to count back, so with 16 commits and 3 incoming transfers, I think they have 6 spots available. I haven't followed them closely in recruiting, so I'm not sure what prospects they lead for, although it seems like they're in on a couple more transfers. 

I don't think OU's even in the running for any HS players outside of Uke and Wheaton. Of course, the Sooners are unlikely to get either.

The Sooners will likely remain active in the Portal. I think OU'd like to take a RB (Gray, eg) and specifically Big Cat Bryant (Auburn/Tenn/ ???) and Arik Gilbert (LSU/??? -- OU boards are saying OU's a legit possibility so who knows). I'd like them to kick the tires on both of the starting inside LB transfers from Tenn also. Both seem like high upside players. 

The portal will continue to be active for another couple of weeks and again after Spring Ball, I think, so there is virtue in keeping your powder dry.

Edited by quigley
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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

 

2 hours ago, golfclap said:

So he'll have 5 to play 4, right? he's basically a Freshman all over again? is that right? 

 

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

That grammar is actively painful, even by recruit Twitter standards. Oof.

He visited OU during his HS recruitment.

I guess this year is a gap year for any recruit (HS or JUCO or transfer). 

His grammar may be painful, but his skill set appears to be good. Though he didn't get a lot of run this year, it may be because Tennessee's coaches played him at CB (where he was recruited at 6'1", 200), safety, and NB. Seems like a terrible way to develop a DB.

News of him coming and Bookie looking to transfer are great news for OU's defensive backfield.

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OklahomaSam

OklahomaSam 151

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Spider2YBanana said:

Maybe don't come swinging some dragging pussy and just try to converse like a normal person and you may actually enjoy the board. 

Charmin Extra Soft if that was considered swinging.  OU is fine on numbers and on scholarship room  Sooner Scoop posted a scholarship breakdown and OU isn't close to being in jeopardy of any limit 

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Funk Doctor Spock

Funk Doctor Spock 12176

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OklahomaSam said:

Charmin Extra Soft if that was considered swinging.  OU is fine on numbers and on scholarship room  Sooner Scoop posted a scholarship breakdown and OU isn't close to being in jeopardy of any limit 

I may have missed it, but did someone say otherwise? I honestly don't know 

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Knewk210

Knewk210 244

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, OklahomaSam said:

I mean things could be worse, OU could be on its third coach in a decade. 

You show up in a bar in Austin (Texas Bulletin Board), I'm guessing already drunk. New to the scene (third post) and proceed to spew inflammatory shit and not expect to get your ass kicked?

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ztejas

ztejas 43411

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, OklahomaSam said:

Charmin Extra Soft if that was considered swinging.  OU is fine on numbers and on scholarship room  Sooner Scoop posted a scholarship breakdown and OU isn't close to being in jeopardy of any limit 

We're not talking about you running out of room or oversigning we're talking about you having to potentially grab a bunch of shitty walk-ons because you wind up with too few scholarship upperclassmen to have the depth you need to not get ass-raped by programs with a national pulse.

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quigley

quigley 1558

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, OklahomaSam said:

Charmin Extra Soft if that was considered swinging.  OU is fine on numbers and on scholarship room  Sooner Scoop posted a scholarship breakdown and OU isn't close to being in jeopardy of any limit 

Did my math come close to theirs? Here's what I get for net number per year:

2017: 24
2018: 23
2019: 29 --> this is the one year I can't account for.
2020: 24
2021: 11 so far.

OU averages ~ 9 - 10 EE per year so I think they can take up to 3-4 more transfers this year. I bet they're going after high impact players (Gray, Gilbert, Bryant) and then will still have 1-2 in their pocket for later for late transfers/JUCOs.

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