2021 Texas Offseason: Sark Attacks Austin

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

That Robinson addition will be big. Imagine an offense with Bijan at RB, Robinson/Whittington in the slot, and Worthy and Smith on the outside. Then imagine getting the ball to any one of those guys in space.

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Fud 9,552]

Texas over here looks like really easy money

 

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

2 minutes ago, Fud said:

Texas over here looks like really easy money

 

JFC. They’re predicting us to be 6th in the conference? That definitely seems like easy money. 

[honolulu horn 6,164]

4 minutes ago, Fud said:

Texas over here looks like really easy money

 

I'm not a betting guy but that seems like really easy money. 

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1,084]

15 minutes ago, Fud said:

Texas over here looks like really easy money

 

Yeah, just don't be the 1 in KU's 1 o/u.

Edited June 7, 2021 by J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

[Fud 9,552]

Just now, Burt Macklin said:

JFC. They’re predicting us to be 6th in the conference? That definitely seems like easy money. 

Not exactly a projection since it's -125 to bet the over for Texas vs -110 for OSU, EVEN for TCU, and +120 for WVU

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

1 minute ago, Fud said:

Not exactly a projection since it's -125 to bet the over for Texas vs -110 for OSU, EVEN for TCU, and +120 for WVU

True. It’s definitely baiting Texas fans to take the over, but still even if they have us near even with TCU and WVU, that seems way too low. Most conference futures odds have us third with OSU near us and then a sizeabe gap to teams like TCU and WVU. 

[Fud 9,552]

Just now, Burt Macklin said:

True. It’s definitely baiting Texas fans to take the over, but still even if they have us near even with TCU and WVU, that seems way too low. Most conference futures odds have us third with OSU near us and then a sizeabe gap to teams like TCU and WVU. 

It's a really easy bet to make. Texas likely easily beats Kansas, Tech, and Baylor, and should beat KSU; that's likely four in hand with five games to go, only needing to win one 

I'd lay down a lot of money on that bet 

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

Just now, Fud said:

It's a really easy bet to make. Texas likely easily beats Kansas, Tech, and Baylor, and should beat KSU; that's likely four in hand with five games to go, only needing to win one 

I'd lay down a lot of money on that bet 

So what you’re saying is we should schedule a Surly road trip to Vegas so we can all throw our money at Texas over 4.5 this summer?

[Red Five 40,862]

So if you bet the over you win if Texas goes 5-4 in conference? Um yeah we can probably manage that. 

[runthebone 8,013]

Looks like we're ready to roll.

[cmontexas 3,272]

Roschon could play Wishbone QB

[Elmer_Fudd 22,281]

 

[westexhorn 2,020]

11 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

 

shit i just busted through a wall

[JFKFC 4,890]

2 hours ago, runthebone said:

Looks like we're ready to roll.

[TotallyLegit 3,053]

15 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

 

I'm starting to not feel so proud of my daily 1 hour brisk walk

[Vito Andolini 9,126]

44 minutes ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

 

I hope Becton knows what he’s doing, because I sure like him.

[OrangEngr 1,035]

20 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

 For my own sanity I might opponent adjust my expectations from watching that video

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[DeweyCox 366]

2 hours ago, TotallyLegit said:

I'm starting to not feel so proud of my daily 1 hour brisk walk

Just don’t make it look easy…

[Bevo14 8,333]

7 minutes ago, DeweyCox said:

Just don’t make it look easy…

One of my friends used to do low weight reps on bench and toss it up easily. Whenever the coaches would walk by, he'd start pretending to struggle until they left.

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

41 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

 

Finishing with 4 conference wins doesn’t automatically imply a 6th place finish but it does imply a 7-5 record at best. Finishing with 5 wins implies 8-4 record. An 8-4 (5-4) or 9-3 (6-3) seems most likely to me. I’d take the over in a heartbeat, and there aren’t good odds on it. We have a new QB, new HC with a mixed record, and because of this, I can kinda see why we were picked to finish 4.5-4.5. I think it’s unlikely and think Sark is going to dominate - over time. I predict a season like ‘18 or slightly better than the last two years. The difference will be we will look like a team with an identity that knows what we are doing, and have some QB growing pains. 

I said predicting us 6th based on the other teams’ O/Us. Also if Vegas is putting us around 4-5 wins in conference, then it absolutely does not imply going 3-0 OOC. ULL is likely going to be better than half the Big 12.
 

So 4 or 5 wins in conference would put us around 6-6 or 7-5 in the regular season.  

[Red Five 40,862]

Yes it would be a very strange year if we beat Louisiana and Arkansas and then lost four or five conference games.

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

1 minute ago, Dr. Beeper said:

We have finished 5-4 or worse in each of the last 7 seasons except 2018, where we finished 7-2 (and a loss against Maryland).

Nope. We literally just did better than that last year. 

[closetohumping 17,449]

I just put a ton of money (enough to take South Austin's mom to 3 seafood dinners) on Texas over .75.

[LTtxfan 49,249]

On 6/6/2021 at 6:04 PM, Machinator said:

 

 

[texifornia 57,000]

 

[SaucyJack 3,488]

6 hours ago, Elmer_Fudd said:

 

 

6 hours ago, westexhorn said:

shit i just busted through a wall

 

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Eggo 3,977]

33 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

His release is getting snappier. 

[futureman 22,485]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

 

*qb2

[gmr548 16,580]

Not exactly a projection since it's -125 to bet the over for Texas vs -110 for OSU, EVEN for TCU, and +120 for WVU

Honestly +105 on Texas being sub .500 in conference (which is probably 6-6 at best, overall, because a 4-5 team isn’t beating ULL AND piggy) is still less value than the -125 over. That’s just crazy low. Tom Herman had this program winning 6-7 big 12 games a year while finding innovative new ways to lose that had never once been executed in the game of football. Even 2017 Texas, which was a garbage team and took two trademark Herman Ls, went 5-4 in the league. There is just no way this team can’t get to 5-4 in conference barring a complete injury meltdown where Charles Wright starts most Big 12 games behind largely second team OL.

[gmr548 16,580]

I’m an idiot and can’t read

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

8 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Honestly +105 on Texas being sub .500 in conference (which is probably 6-6 at best, overall, because a 4-5 team isn’t beating ULL AND piggy) is still less value than the -125 over. That’s just crazy low. Tom Herman had this program winning 6-7 big 12 games a year while finding innovative new ways to lose that had never once been executed in the game of football. Even 2017 Texas, which was a garbage team and took two trademark Herman Ls, went 5-4 in the league. There is just no way this team can’t get to 5-4 in conference barring a complete injury meltdown where Charles Wright starts most Big 12 games behind largely second team OL.

All of this. Probably the most understated thing about Herman is that he was 90% right about pretty much everything. That 10% was infuriating as fuck, and absolutely merited showing him the door, but he did build a team capable of winning every fucking game. Wasn't gonna happen with him calling the shots, but then, he's not calling the shots this year, is he? If this team loses 4 games overall, then Sarkisian's seat will be and should be hot as fuck.

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

1 hour ago, Walden Ponderer said:

Probably the most understated thing about Herman is that he was 90% right about pretty much everything.

lol wut. Not even close. He did some things right, but he was wrong on a lot of it, coaching staff being one of the major issues. 

1 hour ago, Walden Ponderer said:

but he did build a team capable of winning every fucking game.

Also not true at all. We had major deficiencies at too many spots throughout his tenure. There was never a year we had a roster realistically capable of going undefeated. 

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

18 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Also not true at all. We had major deficiencies at too many spots throughout his tenure. There was never a year we had a roster realistically capable of going undefeated. 

I won't quibble on personnel, as that's a crap shoot for anyone not named Alabama who hopes to win every game -- if you don't have depth to win no matter what, then you need lucky bounces.

But as to whether it was realistic or not, there are very few losses during his tenure here that you can look at and say, "That would have happened even if he hadn't done dumbass things a through q during the game." Hell, just look at the Maryland losses for proof that he could easily have won games that he lost embarrassingly for embarrassing reasons.

And yes, my 90% paintbrush was certainly generous if the first thing you're going to mention is staff, I will readily concede.

[Domedriver 655]

What percentage of DNA differences between man and monkey?  The vital difference between winners and losers is really small and critical. VY had it, Colt had some of it.  It’s called Winnatonium!

[Eskimohorn 5,635]

All of this. Probably the most understated thing about Herman is that he was 90% right about pretty much everything. That 10% was infuriating as fuck, and absolutely merited showing him the door, but he did build a team capable of winning every fucking game. Wasn't gonna happen with him calling the shots, but then, he's not calling the shots this year, is he? If this team loses 4 games overall, then Sarkisian's seat will be and should be hot as fuck.

Capable of winning every game? Every Big12 team besides Kansas can say that. If we consider firing a head coach after one year, we deserve to continue to wander in the wilderness.

We certainly have enough to win this conference, but have enough uncertainties and holes that can be exploited. With some bad breaks we can lose plenty of games.

Context matters. If we see a smarter, faster, more focused team where players clearly get better, and haul in a monster class, we can feel good going into next season even after a mediocre season.

I’m not sold with this offensive line, receiving corps, tight end. On defense, we have a lot to prove rushing the passer (in a league that doesnt call holding) and defending the pass down the middle. We have too many stiffs on this team, still.

That Kai Money, Cade Brewer, Denzel Okafor are still getting significant snaps demonstrates how mediocre those positions are. At safety, we have a receiver flashing as the best we have at the position. Get real.

And lets not even get into the QB situation. We’re supposed to believe Hudson Card has all-conference talent and could be better than Sam. I don’t see it yet. He still looks raw.

Casey has looked good 20 times in game action. Very good. But 20 snaps. I want to see more before crowning him.

Get real. Drop whatever weird agenda is happening on this site which sets expectations beyond what we’ve seen consistently since 2009.

[Slacks 6,821]

22 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

JFC. They’re predicting us to be 6th in the conference? That definitely seems like easy money. 

Actually, I suck at implied odds, but I don't think that is what you're seeing...  Don't look at the win totals... look at the odds.  -125 over vs +105 under.  Means the expectation at 4.5 is over 55% vs under 48% according to online calc.  Whereas WV odds of under 5.5 are 58%.  This is about money.  Vegas is hoping we lose 4 conference games... (and you already know what i'm going to say).

[futureman 22,485]

if sark doesn’t win 10 games in 2021 he should be executed by firing squad. 

[Slacks 6,821]

19 hours ago, TotallyLegit said:

I'm starting to not feel so proud of my daily 1 hour brisk walk

Make it harder! (TWSS?)

[Slacks 6,821]

19 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Capable of winning every game? Every Big12 team besides Kansas can say that. If we consider firing a head coach after one year, we deserve to continue to wander in the wilderness.

We certainly have enough to win this conference, but have enough uncertainties and holes that can be exploited. With some bad breaks we can lose plenty of games.

Context matters. If we see a smarter, faster, more focused team where players clearly get better, and haul in a monster class, we can feel good going into next season even after a mediocre season.

I’m not sold with this offensive line, receiving corps, tight end. On defense, we have a lot to prove rushing the passer (in a league that doesnt call holding) and defending the pass down the middle. We have too many stiffs on this team, still.

That Kai Money, Cade Brewer, Denzel Okafor are still getting significant snaps demonstrates how mediocre those positions are. At safety, we have a receiver flashing as the best we have at the position. Get real.

And lets not even get into the QB situation. We’re supposed to believe Hudson Card has all-conference talent and could be better than Sam. I don’t see it yet. He still looks raw.

Casey has looked good 20 times in game action. Very good. But 20 snaps. I want to see more before crowning him.

Get real. Drop whatever weird agenda is happening on this site which sets expectations beyond what we’ve seen consistently since 2009.

You gon' find out the agenda in September...  I ain't scared.

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

4 minutes ago, Snacks said:

Actually, I suck at implied odds, but I don't think that is what you're seeing...  Don't look at the win totals... look at the odds.  -125 over vs +105 under.  Means the expectation at 4.5 is over 55% vs under 48% according to online calc.  Whereas WV odds of under 5.5 are 58%.  This is about money.  Vegas is hoping we lose 4 conference games... (and you already know what i'm going to say).

I fully admit that I didn’t look close on my initial post because I couldn’t get past them having us at 4.5 regardless of the odds, but assuming your numbers are correct, how would us having a 55% chance at 5 or more wins (and therefore a 45% chance at 5 or less) not result in us being expected to be worse than WVU who has a 58% chance at 5 or less but also a 42% chance at 6 or more? The array of outcomes on those odds is still vastly in favor of WVU and would put us in 6th, would it not? 

[Eskimohorn 5,635]

You gon' find out the agenda in September...  I ain't scared.

If we lose one early and to OU, we’ll see a bunch of chicken littles pissing their pants, as per usual.

[BurntOrange&White 39,934]

Quote

Eric Nahlin

 

The addition of Alabama transfer running back Keilan Robinson has the potential to change the landscape at running back, both on the chalkboard and on the recruiting big board.

While Steve Sarkisian works out ways to assimilate the known commodity (to him) into the playbook and player rotation, he’ll also need to work out how Robinson affects roster management.

Bijan Robinson would be the starting running back at Alabama this upcoming season, so K. Robinson’s arrival won’t affect him from a starting standpoint. Keilan should help keep Bijan fresh for later in the season, and may reduce his targets in the passing game some, but ultimately Keilan is a turbo booster to the Bijan powered engine.

How does K. Robinson affect Roschon Johnson? It’s too early to know for sure, but my guess is Johnson won’t see his snap count drop much, though he may have to timeshare RB2 duties. Roschon’s value extends beyond when he’s carrying the ball. In addition to logging standard down carries, he can fill an ancillary role in two-back sets while also featuring as the short yardage or goal line back.

If you removed Bijan from the equation, I’d still be excited about the proverbial thunder and lightning Roschon and Keilan provide.

While I don’t think he’ll factor into playing time this season, when it comes to roster management we must account for 2021 signee Jonathon Brooks. Brooks has the hallmarks of a maximizer who will out-perform his ranking. He just needs some time to acclimate to the big jump in competition.

Playing time is easy to understand. The main intrigue to me is trying to figure out how Robinson affects recruiting in the 2022 class.

To get an idea there, let’s sum up what the staff has in Robinson: He’s a versatile speed-back with pinball power and slot machine attributes.

The speed speaks for itself. By pinball power, I mean, he has a lower center of gravity, good balance, and is hard to hit square. Basically, he can break tackles even if he isn’t the biggest back. Think, Tre Watson versus Georgia. A slot machine is a slot receiver with running back attributes, not unlike Devin Duvernay. Those guys are hard for smaller defenders to tackle, especially in space.

These attributes remind me a lot of Tyler Lee’s Jamarion Miller. At last check, the staff is prioritizing Miller and we feel if they can get him to campus this month, the recruitment has the potential to bounce back. However, it’s possible he could be viewed as redundant to K. Robinson. We’re not saying that’s the case, by the way, but it’s something we’re monitoring.

Lake Charles, La., running back, TreVonte’ Citizen may be Stan Drayton’s favorite back in the nation. Citizen took his official visit to Texas last weekend and enjoyed it. How much he enjoyed it, only Citizen, his close circle, and Texas know. UT will have wanted to get a good read here in order to understand whether the juice will continue to be worth the squeeze. With instate LSU and Texas A&M posing legitimate threats, there is stiff competition.

The addition of Robinson, along with having Jaydon Blue committed, allows the staff to play the long game if it wishes. Another reason to play the long game with Citizen or anyone else? The expectation Bijan Robinson’s season is going to become a national headline.

Like Citizen, Newton’s DeAnthony Gatson took an official visit to Texas this past weekend. It’s likely Gatson is more tied to the Citizen recruitment than any other factor. Again, the staff finds itself with the ability to let things play out if it wishes. UT is in great shape for Gatson, who has plant-and-go ability for outside zone but will also muscle up to 220 pounds and be effective between the tackles.

El Paso Burges runner Tavorus Jones profiles as a north/south slasher with good game-speed. He will take an official visit to Texas in two weeks. Given the various scenarios in play, and accounting for Jones being very high on UT, will the staff press?

The elephant in the room is current commit Jaydon Blue, who is a student at Klein Cain. While some fans think it’s great he’s ”saving his body,” there isn’t a coach in America of any sport worth his or her salt who thinks that’s a good indication of future success.

As players, Blue and Keilan Robinson have some overlap in their speed and ability as receivers.

It’ll be fascinating to see how it all plays out. One thing is for sure, the addition of Robinson improved the staff’s hand, and the bridge to Rueben Owens in the 2023 is much more sturdy.

 

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Slacks 6,821]

1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

I fully admit that I didn’t look close on my initial post because I couldn’t get past them having us at 4.5 regardless of the odds, but assuming your numbers are correct, how would us having a 55% chance at 5 or more wins (and therefore a 45% chance at 5 or less) not result in us being expected to be worse than WVU who has a 58% chance at 5 or less but also a 42% chance at 6 or more? The array of outcomes on those odds is still vastly in favor of WVU and would put us in 6th, would it not? 

.55*5 = 2.75

.42*6 = 2.52

Again... Vegas odds have one intention: win money for books... Because Texas moves WAAAAAAY more money than WV, The "odds" are not going to signal expectations of wins and losses.