2021 Texas Offseason: Sark Attacks Austin

[justhookit 4,191]

Black was so fast he could tie Sydney to his left leg and still beat ctj in the race.

[ousux 5,601]

3 of our top 4 WRs are gone???

Yes, and apparently Mack "retired". Worthless article

[Fud 9,552]

Their model is giving Texas a 76.6% chance of winning at least 10 regular season games (loss to OU, and losing a tossup against ISU), with a record floor of 10-2, record ceiling of 11-1, and confidence level in this model of 9/10

 

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1,566]

If Sark comes in and goes 11-1, watch the fuck out.  This thing will take off and this class will be unreal. 

[NoName 16,369]

20 minutes ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

If Sark comes in and goes 11-1, watch the fuck out.  This thing will take off and this class will be unreal. 

honestly if he goes 10-2...

 

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,961]

9/10 wins year 1 going into a bowl game would be very good IMO.

[Fud 9,552]

7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

9/10 wins year 1 going into a bowl game would be very good IMO.

I'd be a little disappointed with nine wins. That model has nine wins at 15.76%, which means they're giving a 92.3% chance of winning at least nine regular season games 

[BurntOrange&White 39,961]

True but 10+ wins including bowl will be a good start. I don't see this staff as the type to let games stay close. I do think Louisiana(don't rip me a new one CTJ), Iowa St, and OU are our biggest threats this season. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by BurntOrange&White

[Burt Macklin 19,038]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

Their model is giving Texas a 76.6% chance of winning at least 10 regular season games (loss to OU, and losing a tossup against ISU), with a record floor of 10-2, record ceiling of 11-1, and confidence level in this model of 9/10

 

I've read some of this guy's stuff before and was pretty impressed with his system. I hope he's right.  If he has any confidence in his metrics, he better go fly to Vegas and bet his house on Texas over 7.5 and 4.5 in conference.

[Pam Cummings 9,654]

13 hours ago, GringoSalado said:

Jewboy is legit

Found them when they had the trailer on Burnet. T-Loc's is fucking amazing too.

[LOHorn 277]

I believe McClintock and Bartoo both use coordinator metrics in their models. Both probably have dramatically upgraded those two areas for us this year. I know Bartoo in particular disliked our coordinators, especially in combination. Something about Ash defenses getting worse with more plays, which made him a bad fit for Yurcich, IIRC.

[Machinator 32,099]

3 minutes ago, LOHorn said:

I believe McClintock and Bartoo both use coordinator metrics in their models. Both probably have dramatically upgraded those two areas for us this year. I know Bartoo in particular disliked our coordinators, especially in combination. Something about Ash defenses getting worse with more plays, which made him a bad fit for Yurcich, IIRC.

Yes. He has Sark rated as an "A" OC and PK as an "A-". He also has Sark rated as a "C" head coach, which should improve at Texas (we hope).

[Pimphand 5,850]

2 hours ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

If Sark comes in and goes 11-1, watch the fuck out.  This thing will take off and this class will be unreal. 

LOL how much delusional disconnect from reality can we sustain?

[Pimphand 5,850]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

I'd be a little disappointed with nine wins. That model has nine wins at 15.76%, which means they're giving a 92.3% chance of winning at least nine regular season games 

Sounds like another shitty model....

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[TotallyLegit 3,053]

16 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

Kinda reminds me of this old article.

http://smartfootball.com/passing/a-very-wise-coach-once-told-me-if-you-really-want-play-action-you-better-pull-a-guard

[HtownHorn 14,762]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

Yes. He has Sark rated as an "A" OC and PK as an "A-". He also has Sark rated as a "C" head coach, which should improve at Texas (we hope).

He gets a C because he wasn't the OC at Washington and USC, but it really helps that he can completely trust the defense to PK, and has the best STs coach in college football in Banks. He really only needs to worry about 1 thing, while taking input from Kwiatkowski and Banks on the other 2 phases of the game.

[TotallyLegit 3,053]

16 minutes ago, TotallyLegit said:

Kinda reminds me of this old article.

http://smartfootball.com/passing/a-very-wise-coach-once-told-me-if-you-really-want-play-action-you-better-pull-a-guard

Also, pulling guard aside, the interesting thing about a counter play action is that it might mess with the backside DE's pass rush responsibilities even more, because he thinks he's the play-side DE for a split second.

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[BurntOrangeBlooded15 1,566]

1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

LOL how much delusional disconnect from reality can we sustain?

I’m not saying it’s going to happen.  Honestly 8-9 wins is what I’m going to expect until it changes.  My point was IF 10-11 wins is hit in year one, recruiting will handle itself. 

[Red Five 40,881]

8 minutes ago, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

I’m not saying it’s going to happen.  Honestly 8-9 wins is what I’m going to expect until it changes.  My point was IF 10-11 wins is hit in year one, recruiting will handle itself. 

9-3 is my baseline. Anything over that is fantastic. Anything under that will be pretty disappointing. 

[GringoSalado 1,651]

I mean, if we can run it well enough to call play action 80% of the time then we're going to win 9 games. Yeah.

edit

restated: you have to be able to run the ball for play action to work. If we can run block like Bama, well...

Edited June 29, 2021 by GringoSalado

[totallynotabuttpirate 5,403]

16 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

I mean, if we can run it well enough to call play action 80% of the time then we're going to win 9 games. Yeah.

edit

restated: you have to be able to run the ball for play action to work. If we can run block like Bama, well...

Bijan don't need no stinking blocking. 

[UncleSonny 6,573]

19 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

I mean, if we can run it well enough to call play action 80% of the time then we're going to win 9 games. Yeah.

edit

restated: you have to be able to run the ball for play action to work. If we can run block like Bama, well...

This isn't really the case. Well designed offenses that use a lot of play-action can be effective whether or not the team runs the ball a lot or effectively. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

Not sure if there is similar data for college, but the relevant part: 

Spoiler

As we saw when looking at play-action yards per play, there's no relationship here. The difference in the effectiveness of a team's passing game using play-action relative to without play-action is unrelated to the frequency or effectiveness of the team's rushing.

The most interesting part of these figures is the vertical placement of the dots. I've drawn a horizontal line at zero on each figure, and the vast majority of points lying above the line means that the vast majority of teams have more yards per play on play-action dropbacks than on non-play-action dropbacks. This isn't news -- Football Outsiders has documented play-action's efficiency for years -- but gives a visual for how rare it is for teams to fall below the zero line. And once again, there's no relationship between a team's rushing frequency or effectiveness and their likelihood of falling below the line.

Of course Bijan and an effective running game is just another way the offense can be deadly. 

[GringoSalado 1,651]

7 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Bijan don't need no stinking blocking. 

touché

[NoName 16,369]

4 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

I've read some of this guy's stuff before and was pretty impressed with his system. I hope he's right.  If he has any confidence in his metrics, he better go fly to Vegas and bet his house on Texas over 7.5 and 4.5 in conference.

this reminds me i need to find someone going there soon

[Eskimohorn 5,642]

This isn't really the case. Well designed offenses that use a lot of play-action can be effective whether or not the team runs the ball a lot or effectively. 
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
Not sure if there is similar data for college, but the relevant part: 
Spoiler

As we saw when looking at play-action yards per play, there's no relationship here. The difference in the effectiveness of a team's passing game using play-action relative to without play-action is unrelated to the frequency or effectiveness of the team's rushing.

The most interesting part of these figures is the vertical placement of the dots. I've drawn a horizontal line at zero on each figure, and the vast majority of points lying above the line means that the vast majority of teams have more yards per play on play-action dropbacks than on non-play-action dropbacks. This isn't news -- Football Outsiders has documented play-action's efficiency for years -- but gives a visual for how rare it is for teams to fall below the zero line. And once again, there's no relationship between a team's rushing frequency or effectiveness and their likelihood of falling below the line.

Of course Bijan and an effective running game is just another way the offense can be deadly. 

It does seem counterintuitive. My belief (and that of many coaches per the article) is that it’s fundamentally unsound to run play action too much, when you cant run the ball effectively, or when you dont have much potential to run.

I think its best to understand how each opponent defends you, their tendencies, what keys they like, etc before assuming anything.

Still, it drives me crazy to see playaction on 3rd and long, with the defense not slowing down at all.

[Fud 9,552]

3 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

It does seem counterintuitive. My belief (and that of many coaches per the article) is that it’s fundamentally unsound to run play action too much, when you cant run the ball effectively, or when you dont have much potential to run.

I think its best to understand how each opponent defends you, their tendencies, what keys they like, etc before assuming anything.

Still, it drives me crazy to see playaction on 3rd and long, with the defense not slowing down at all.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

[gmr548 16,601]

Their model is giving Texas a 76.6% chance of winning at least 10 regular season games (loss to OU, and losing a tossup against ISU), with a record floor of 10-2, record ceiling of 11-1, and confidence level in this model of 9/10
 

Feels a little aggressive, but my expectation is certainly closer to this than some of the 7-5 or under .500 in conference projections I’ve seen.

[UncleSonny 6,573]

30 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

It does seem counterintuitive. My belief (and that of many coaches per the article) is that it’s fundamentally unsound to run play action too much, when you cant run the ball effectively, or when you dont have much potential to run.

Problem is the belief in that philosophy isn't supported by data or anything else. The article mentions the coaches by way of questioning their blind adherence to it.

"Run to set up the pass" is something they heard coming up the ranks a million times and it's ingrained in their coaching philosophy but it's an outdated maxim (if it ever was true). The best offensive coaches have accepted that there is basically no such thing as too much play-action and no minimum threshold your running game needs to hit to use it.    

[Reese Bennett 3,615]

58 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Still, it drives me crazy to see playaction on 3rd and long, with the defense not slowing down at all.

No worries. We won't be in third and long.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

dp

Edited June 29, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,868]

On 6/27/2021 at 7:40 PM, closetojumping said:

Anyway, Sarkisian doesn’t have any clear signs of being a naricissist, sociopath, genius, or bipolar. If he can stay off the sauce and he’s as football smart as he and his staff appear to be, we should be pretty good for a while. 

That Sark said after his Falcons' gig that he did not have the answers yet and needed to learn more and went back to Saban speaks volumes of landing a life longer learner.

Edited June 29, 2021 by ShaggyBevo RIP

[Slacks 6,856]

4 hours ago, Machinator said:

 

This play doesn't look like it was sprung by the play action much.  The LBs played pass almost the whole way.  The run fake did stall the the RDE a bit, but everyone else played pass.  Even the "pulling" OG looked more like an OL stunt to pass block the RDE, not a run pull...  aggy just can't cover 3 on 2... (granted, I don't recall many people covering Smith all season, so...)

[Walden Ponderer 12,639]

As a bipolar, I gotta say, college football is one profession bipolars need to steer the fuck clear of -- sleep deprivation is a job requirement for a coach, but it's a death sentence for a bipolar, good meds or no.

[Machinator 32,099]

[texifornia 57,074]

 

[Llewelyn Moss 210]

1 hour ago, texifornia said:

 

My assumption is that this is 100% not related to the NCAA or their rules, or any state’s rules—but that as an international student, he isn’t authorized to work in the US. His beef is with federal immigration policy, not NCAA. 

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[ousux 5,601]

My assumption is that this is 100% not related to the NCAA or their rules, or any state’s rules—but that as an international student, he isn’t authorized to work in the US. His beef is with federal immigration policy, not NCAA. 

He doesnt seem to have a beef, just wants to help his teammates earn money. That does kinda suck though, are international students not allowed a part time job to help with expenses?

[Slacks 6,856]

7 hours ago, ousux said:

He doesnt seem to have a beef, just wants to help his teammates earn money. That does kinda suck though, are international students not allowed a part time job to help with expenses?

Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.

I think that's how it goes...

[conVINCEd 21,469]

25 minutes ago, Snacks said:

Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.

I think that's how it goes...

If Outback Steakhouse would like our resident Aussie to endorse their Shrimp on the Barbie he should be able to do it.  That being said, the NIL market for a punter who hasn’t done much to this point in his career is probably not real good.  Dickson could have snagged that endorsement his last year here.

[BurntOrange&White 39,961]

18 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

If Outback Steakhouse would like our resident Aussie to endorse their Shrimp on the Barbie he should be able to do it.  That being said, the NIL market for a punter who hasn’t done much to this point in his career is probably not real good.  Dickson could have snagged that endorsement his last year here.

See, it's not about production and etc with NIL. If the person is charismatic, puts out good social media content, and develops large following then they will thrive in the NIL department. It's all about promoting yourself, brand, and etc when it comes to social media. As stated before attractive female college athletes who draw massive IG followers will thrive the most in NIL.

[Eggo 3,992]

45 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

If Outback Steakhouse would like our resident Aussie to endorse their Shrimp on the Barbie he should be able to do it.  That being said, the NIL market for a punter who hasn’t done much to this point in his career is probably not real good.  Dickson could have snagged that endorsement his last year here.

Outback isn't really about rules, mostly just right

[TrashMaster G 17,588]

On 6/26/2021 at 8:40 PM, TXRed said:

ISU held Louisiana’s offense to under 300 yards and stopped them twice in the red zone, but gave up a kick off return for a TD, a punt return for a TD, and fumbled on a punt that pinned them inside their own 10. I think we’ll be fine as long as we don’t fuck special teams up like ISU did.  

Well, that makes me feel better, because if there is one thing we have nailed down the last several years, it's special teams. 

 

 

On 6/26/2021 at 12:37 PM, Machinator said:

Interesting chart, but it leaves out context.  For example, if rushing was 25% of their offense last year is a very different story vs it being 75% of their offense.

[ousux 5,601]

Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.
I think that's how it goes...

Seems like there should be a way for international students to help themselves out during school..such as being allowed to make money (any way they can) as long as they're still enrolled in school

[gmr548 16,601]

My assumption is that this is 100% not related to the NCAA or their rules, or any state’s rules—but that as an international student, he isn’t authorized to work in the US. His beef is with federal immigration policy, not NCAA. 

He doesnt seem to have a beef, just wants to help his teammates earn money. That does kinda suck though, are international students not allowed a part time job to help with expenses?

Am I the only one that read that cheek as tongue in cheek? As in perhaps the international thing is true but how much attention is that kid getting?

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Machinator 32,099]

 

[Slacks 6,856]

3 hours ago, ousux said:

9 hours ago, Snacks said:

Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.
I think that's how it goes...

Seems like there should be a way for international students to help themselves out during school..such as being allowed to make money (any way they can) as long as they're still enrolled in school

THEY SHOULD BE HAPPY WE LET THEM GO TO SCHOOL HERE FOR FREE AND QUIT TRYNA STEAL MA JOBS!!!1i