Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted

Their model is giving Texas a 76.6% chance of winning at least 10 regular season games (loss to OU, and losing a tossup against ISU), with a record floor of 10-2, record ceiling of 11-1, and confidence level in this model of 9/10

 

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Like 1
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 1:40 PM, BurntOrange&White said:

9/10 wins year 1 going into a bowl game would be very good IMO.

Expand  

I'd be a little disappointed with nine wins. That model has nine wins at 15.76%, which means they're giving a 92.3% chance of winning at least nine regular season games 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted (edited)

True but 10+ wins including bowl will be a good start. I don't see this staff as the type to let games stay close. I do think Louisiana(don't rip me a new one CTJ), Iowa St, and OU are our biggest threats this season. 

Edited by BurntOrange&White
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 12:54 PM, Fud said:

Their model is giving Texas a 76.6% chance of winning at least 10 regular season games (loss to OU, and losing a tossup against ISU), with a record floor of 10-2, record ceiling of 11-1, and confidence level in this model of 9/10

 

Expand  

I've read some of this guy's stuff before and was pretty impressed with his system. I hope he's right.  If he has any confidence in his metrics, he better go fly to Vegas and bet his house on Texas over 7.5 and 4.5 in conference.

Posted

I believe McClintock and Bartoo both use coordinator metrics in their models. Both probably have dramatically upgraded those two areas for us this year. I know Bartoo in particular disliked our coordinators, especially in combination. Something about Ash defenses getting worse with more plays, which made him a bad fit for Yurcich, IIRC.

Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 2:47 PM, LOHorn said:

I believe McClintock and Bartoo both use coordinator metrics in their models. Both probably have dramatically upgraded those two areas for us this year. I know Bartoo in particular disliked our coordinators, especially in combination. Something about Ash defenses getting worse with more plays, which made him a bad fit for Yurcich, IIRC.

Expand  

Yes. He has Sark rated as an "A" OC and PK as an "A-". He also has Sark rated as a "C" head coach, which should improve at Texas (we hope).

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 1:49 PM, Fud said:

I'd be a little disappointed with nine wins. That model has nine wins at 15.76%, which means they're giving a 92.3% chance of winning at least nine regular season games 

Expand  

Sounds like another shitty model....

Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 2:51 PM, Machinator said:

Yes. He has Sark rated as an "A" OC and PK as an "A-". He also has Sark rated as a "C" head coach, which should improve at Texas (we hope).

Expand  

He gets a C because he wasn't the OC at Washington and USC, but it really helps that he can completely trust the defense to PK, and has the best STs coach in college football in Banks. He really only needs to worry about 1 thing, while taking input from Kwiatkowski and Banks on the other 2 phases of the game.

Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 4:06 PM, TotallyLegit said:
Expand  

Also, pulling guard aside, the interesting thing about a counter play action is that it might mess with the backside DE's pass rush responsibilities even more, because he thinks he's the play-side DE for a split second.

Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 4:31 PM, BurntOrangeBlooded15 said:

I’m not saying it’s going to happen.  Honestly 8-9 wins is what I’m going to expect until it changes.  My point was IF 10-11 wins is hit in year one, recruiting will handle itself. 

Expand  

9-3 is my baseline. Anything over that is fantastic. Anything under that will be pretty disappointing. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Posted (edited)

I mean, if we can run it well enough to call play action 80% of the time then we're going to win 9 games. Yeah.

edit

restated: you have to be able to run the ball for play action to work. If we can run block like Bama, well...

Edited by GringoSalado
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 5:19 PM, GringoSalado said:

I mean, if we can run it well enough to call play action 80% of the time then we're going to win 9 games. Yeah.

edit

restated: you have to be able to run the ball for play action to work. If we can run block like Bama, well...

Expand  

This isn't really the case. Well designed offenses that use a lot of play-action can be effective whether or not the team runs the ball a lot or effectively. 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing

Not sure if there is similar data for college, but the relevant part: 

  Reveal hidden contents

Of course Bijan and an effective running game is just another way the offense can be deadly. 

  • Hook 'Em 3
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 2:39 PM, Burt Macklin said:

I've read some of this guy's stuff before and was pretty impressed with his system. I hope he's right.  If he has any confidence in his metrics, he better go fly to Vegas and bet his house on Texas over 7.5 and 4.5 in conference.

Expand  

this reminds me i need to find someone going there soon

Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 5:42 PM, UncleSonny said:
This isn't really the case. Well designed offenses that use a lot of play-action can be effective whether or not the team runs the ball a lot or effectively. 
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/further-research-play-action-passing
Not sure if there is similar data for college, but the relevant part: 
Spoiler
  Reveal hidden contents

Of course Bijan and an effective running game is just another way the offense can be deadly. 


It does seem counterintuitive. My belief (and that of many coaches per the article) is that it’s fundamentally unsound to run play action too much, when you cant run the ball effectively, or when you dont have much potential to run.

I think its best to understand how each opponent defends you, their tendencies, what keys they like, etc before assuming anything.

Still, it drives me crazy to see playaction on 3rd and long, with the defense not slowing down at all.
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 6:50 PM, Eskimohorn said:


It does seem counterintuitive. My belief (and that of many coaches per the article) is that it’s fundamentally unsound to run play action too much, when you cant run the ball effectively, or when you dont have much potential to run.

I think its best to understand how each opponent defends you, their tendencies, what keys they like, etc before assuming anything.

Still, it drives me crazy to see playaction on 3rd and long, with the defense not slowing down at all.

Expand  

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/rushing-success-and-play-action-passing

Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 12:54 PM, Fud said:
Their model is giving Texas a 76.6% chance of winning at least 10 regular season games (loss to OU, and losing a tossup against ISU), with a record floor of 10-2, record ceiling of 11-1, and confidence level in this model of 9/10
 

Feels a little aggressive, but my expectation is certainly closer to this than some of the 7-5 or under .500 in conference projections I’ve seen.
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 6:50 PM, Eskimohorn said:

It does seem counterintuitive. My belief (and that of many coaches per the article) is that it’s fundamentally unsound to run play action too much, when you cant run the ball effectively, or when you dont have much potential to run.

Expand  

Problem is the belief in that philosophy isn't supported by data or anything else. The article mentions the coaches by way of questioning their blind adherence to it.

"Run to set up the pass" is something they heard coming up the ranks a million times and it's ingrained in their coaching philosophy but it's an outdated maxim (if it ever was true). The best offensive coaches have accepted that there is basically no such thing as too much play-action and no minimum threshold your running game needs to hit to use it.    

Posted (edited)
  On 6/27/2021 at 11:40 PM, closetojumping said:

Anyway, Sarkisian doesn’t have any clear signs of being a naricissist, sociopath, genius, or bipolar. If he can stay off the sauce and he’s as football smart as he and his staff appear to be, we should be pretty good for a while. 

Expand  

That Sark said after his Falcons' gig that he did not have the answers yet and needed to learn more and went back to Saban speaks volumes of landing a life longer learner.

Edited by ShaggyBevo RIP
  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
  On 6/29/2021 at 3:49 PM, Machinator said:

 

Expand  

This play doesn't look like it was sprung by the play action much.  The LBs played pass almost the whole way.  The run fake did stall the the RDE a bit, but everyone else played pass.  Even the "pulling" OG looked more like an OL stunt to pass block the RDE, not a run pull...  aggy just can't cover 3 on 2... (granted, I don't recall many people covering Smith all season, so...)

Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 2:08 AM, Llewelyn Moss said:
My assumption is that this is 100% not related to the NCAA or their rules, or any state’s rules—but that as an international student, he isn’t authorized to work in the US. His beef is with federal immigration policy, not NCAA. 
He doesnt seem to have a beef, just wants to help his teammates earn money. That does kinda suck though, are international students not allowed a part time job to help with expenses?
Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 5:15 AM, ousux said:

He doesnt seem to have a beef, just wants to help his teammates earn money. That does kinda suck though, are international students not allowed a part time job to help with expenses?

Expand  

Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.

I think that's how it goes...

Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 1:21 PM, Snacks said:

Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.

I think that's how it goes...

Expand  

If Outback Steakhouse would like our resident Aussie to endorse their Shrimp on the Barbie he should be able to do it.  That being said, the NIL market for a punter who hasn’t done much to this point in his career is probably not real good.  Dickson could have snagged that endorsement his last year here.

Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 1:49 PM, conVINCEd said:

If Outback Steakhouse would like our resident Aussie to endorse their Shrimp on the Barbie he should be able to do it.  That being said, the NIL market for a punter who hasn’t done much to this point in his career is probably not real good.  Dickson could have snagged that endorsement his last year here.

Expand  

See, it's not about production and etc with NIL. If the person is charismatic, puts out good social media content, and develops large following then they will thrive in the NIL department. It's all about promoting yourself, brand, and etc when it comes to social media. As stated before attractive female college athletes who draw massive IG followers will thrive the most in NIL.

Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 1:49 PM, conVINCEd said:

If Outback Steakhouse would like our resident Aussie to endorse their Shrimp on the Barbie he should be able to do it.  That being said, the NIL market for a punter who hasn’t done much to this point in his career is probably not real good.  Dickson could have snagged that endorsement his last year here.

Expand  

Outback isn't really about rules, mostly just right

  • Like 2
  • Haha 6
Posted
  On 6/27/2021 at 1:40 AM, TXRed said:

ISU held Louisiana’s offense to under 300 yards and stopped them twice in the red zone, but gave up a kick off return for a TD, a punt return for a TD, and fumbled on a punt that pinned them inside their own 10. I think we’ll be fine as long as we don’t fuck special teams up like ISU did.  

Expand  

Well, that makes me feel better, because if there is one thing we have nailed down the last several years, it's special teams. 

 

 

  On 6/26/2021 at 5:37 PM, Machinator said:

E40nqaJWUAQdeh4?format=jpg&name=large

Expand  

Interesting chart, but it leaves out context.  For example, if rushing was 25% of their offense last year is a very different story vs it being 75% of their offense.

Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 1:21 PM, Snacks said:
Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.
I think that's how it goes...
Seems like there should be a way for international students to help themselves out during school..such as being allowed to make money (any way they can) as long as they're still enrolled in school
Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 2:08 AM, Llewelyn Moss said:
My assumption is that this is 100% not related to the NCAA or their rules, or any state’s rules—but that as an international student, he isn’t authorized to work in the US. His beef is with federal immigration policy, not NCAA. 

  On 6/30/2021 at 5:15 AM, ousux said:
He doesnt seem to have a beef, just wants to help his teammates earn money. That does kinda suck though, are international students not allowed a part time job to help with expenses?

Am I the only one that read that cheek as tongue in cheek? As in perhaps the international thing is true but how much attention is that kid getting?
Posted
  On 6/30/2021 at 6:54 PM, ousux said:
  On 6/30/2021 at 1:21 PM, Snacks said:
Student visas are very limited regarding employment.  Part time on-campus or campus related (think university research) jobs are allowed... But scholarship athletes (visa or not) can't accept the full scholarship and have a campus job.
I think that's how it goes...
Expand  

Seems like there should be a way for international students to help themselves out during school..such as being allowed to make money (any way they can) as long as they're still enrolled in school

Expand  

THEY SHOULD BE HAPPY WE LET THEM GO TO SCHOOL HERE FOR FREE AND QUIT TRYNA STEAL MA JOBS!!!1i

  • Haha 2

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...