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2021 Texas Offseason: Sark Attacks Austin

texifornia

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Doc Reeves

Doc Reeves 6434

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Just now, lemonandaturd said:

I just want Sark and Coach K to help me forget that Shawn Watson and Todd Orlando ever were coordinators at Texas.  The only other way to forget involves lots of drugs and alcohol.  


I agree with this but I think it’s better to just start doing lots of drugs and alcohol right now just in case

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There are longstanding rumors that Chip Brown is your typical old school sports reporter. By that, I mean he's allegedly a degenerate gambler and alcoholic. There's a longstanding rumor that Chip

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texifornia

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5 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Lost our best player in Sam Cosmi - will definitely be worse

Eh, they might not have an individual who's as good, but the coaching should be miles better. Flood vs Hand is an enormous contrast.

Look at the Euro Championship last night - England had the better, more athletic players, but Italy worked together more coherently.

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Fud

Fud 9551

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6 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Lost our best player in Sam Cosmi - will definitely be worse

Lose one player, return a bunch of others with potentially better positional coaching and play-calling/design. It's possible that it's worse, but saying it'll definitely be worse is dumb considering how bad it was at times last year 

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BurntOrange&White

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Just now, Fud said:

Lose one player, return a bunch of others with potentially better positional coaching and play-calling/design. It's possible that it's worse, but saying it'll definitely be worse is dumb considering how bad it was at times last year 

Christian Jones mas more potential to be better than Cosmi and Williams IMO.

 

None of these guys have had coaching in like 5 years.

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victory88

victory88 5663

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8 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Lost our best player in Sam Cosmi - will definitely be worse

We looked just fine without Sam our last 2 games.  In fact, we looked better.  I'm not saying Cosmi is bad or anything.  Just that we had guys step up while he was probably mentally checked out trying not to get hurt after the tcu and ou losses.

 

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GTNY

GTNY 284

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29 minutes ago, lemonandaturd said:

I just want Sark and Coach K to help me forget that Shawn Watson and Todd Orlando ever were coordinators at Texas.  The only other way to forget involves lots of drugs and alcohol.  

Hopefully its us consuming the alcohol in this case

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C-Man

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17 minutes ago, texifornia said:

Eh, they might not have an individual who's as good, but the coaching should be miles better. Flood vs Hand is an enormous contrast.

Look at the Euro Championship last night - England had the better, more athletic players, but Italy worked together more coherently.

Italy wasn't managed by GDGS either

 

 

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UncleSonny

UncleSonny 6570

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https://theathletic.com/2696515/2021/07/12/college-football-win-totals-could-clemson-miss-the-playoff-is-north-carolina-a-10-win-team-and-more/

Texas section of the Athletic win total column: 

Spoiler

Texas O/U 8

Andy: The Texas over-under is eight. Now, let’s just clear our minds of the idea of what Texas should be, because in our heads Texas should be a team that wins double-digit games every year. It’s impossible.

Ari: I can’t clear my mind of that. That’s all I think about before bed.

Clearing your mind of what Texas is supposed to be is like the antithesis of what it is like to talk about them. Like I don’t even know what Texas is if their logo and their helmet were something else. What would we even be talking about?

Andy: We’re gonna be talking about a team that Max Olson made my head explode by explaining that their record since 2010 is basically the same as Nebraska since 2010. I know. That’s what makes this interesting. So eight feels like the right number. Like it feels like they hit it right on the head.

They got to beat the (Louisiana) Ragin’ Cajuns in the season opener. And I don’t like that Arkansas game. I really don’t. And they’ve got TCU and Oklahoma back to back and they’ve got road trips at Baylor and Iowa State back to back.

Ari: Dude, Andy, I didn’t say this. I need to say this. October 2 at TCU. October 9 Red River (vs. Oklahoma), October 16 Oklahoma State. October 30  at Baylor. That’s a really tough month. Especially since they can’t seem to beat TCU. And TCU is going to be, I think, the best version of itself of the past four years, this year. I did the TCU “state of the program.” And they have a lot to like about them. And I don’t know if you find yourself buying into every single team that you write about for the state of the program series we do, but I bought into TCU.

Andy: I did the Mississippi State one recently. And I realized the SEC West is loaded. The win-loss column difference may not be huge, just because of the level of competition they’re playing. But they’re going to be way better. I can tell you right now they’re going to be a lot better. And so if you’re confident in TCU being a lot better, that’s a scary thing if you’re Texas because you couldn’t beat them when they were at their weakest.

Ari: A new head coach comes in (Steve Sarkisian) who just drove a Ferrari 200 miles an hour, and what he got out of Alabama’s offense. But the general idea is that he is an offensive-minded guy who can get the most out of his players, which was — coincidentally enough — Tom Herman’s reputation when he took the job coming from Houston. But I trust that a coach like Sark who was just in Alabama’s system, has the secret sauce or at least a secret ingredient for what Nick Saban and Alabama did to get the most out of their players; and he will translate the things that he learned to Texas and I think Texas has a chance to get more out of the team that they would have otherwise. So I think the over here is the play you make if you believe that Texas has a chance to be different with their new head coach. I don’t know if it’s one of these hills that I will just be doomed to die on. But I have so much confidence in Texas all the time. And I think I’m gonna bite the bullet and do it again, man.

Andy: I will I will take the under until they prove me wrong. Prove me wrong, Longhorns! Because I just can’t believe you until you do it. Yeah. And that’s fair.

Ari Wasserman went with a tepid "over" with the O/U set at 8. Andy Staples went "under" mainly because he refuses to get fooled again. Some talk about how good they think TCU will be in there as well. 

If we have a 7 win season that is an outright disaster, so fuck you Andy.

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Dbeasy

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We should be better. Herman ran an offense based upon using the QB as a battering ram, and while it created an offense that was somewhat effective, it didn’t maximize the potential of the players and the team. 

On defense, we should also be better.  Losing Ossai is huge, but overall the talent and scheme should be better. 

I also believe coaching will produce better luck than with Herman. Put it all together and we should be 9-3 or 10-2  

 

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ousux

ousux 5597

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Seems someone woke up and realized in spite of firing our coach, we were just a cunthair away from winning all of our games last year, even got wonderboy at blowU benched for part of the game. I kinda liked flying under the radar a bit more, especially pawls "irrelevant" comments..
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USNALonghorn

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42 minutes ago, ousux said:
8 hours ago, texifornia said:

Seems someone woke up and realized in spite of firing our coach, we were just a cunthair away from winning all of our games last year, even got wonderboy at blowU benched for part of the game. I kinda liked flying under the radar a bit more, especially pawls "irrelevant" comments..

Yes we were. We were also a cunthair away from losing OSU and WVU games. There should be a correction factor for Tom Herman coached games:

-Overtime W/L (3 overtimes or greater) = Single overtime W/L 

-Overtime W/L (1 or 2 overtimes) = One possession regulation W/L

-One possession W/L = 2-3 TD W/L

-Greater than one possession W/L = 4+ TD blowout W/L

All kidding aside, I do believe we would've finished 9-3 last year if it wasn't for the cancellations. 

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UncleSonny

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28 minutes ago, USNALonghorn said:

Yes we were. We were also a cunthair away from losing OSU and WVU games. There should be a correction factor for Tom Herman coached games:

-Overtime W/L (3 overtimes or greater) = Single overtime W/L 

-Overtime W/L (1 or 2 overtimes) = One possession regulation W/L

-One possession W/L = 2-3 TD W/L

-Greater than one possession W/L = 4+ TD blowout W/L

All kidding aside, I do believe we would've finished 9-3 last year if it wasn't for the cancellations. 

We were straight up lucky to beat Tech as well. Needed a miracle onside kick, quick td, and an 2 point conversion just to get it to OT. 

In a 10 game schedule we played 6 games that were true toss-ups until basically the final gun.

 

 

 

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Eggo

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1 hour ago, UncleSonny said:

We were straight up lucky to beat Tech as well. Needed a miracle onside kick, quick td, and an 2 point conversion just to get it to OT. 

In a 10 game schedule we played 6 games that were true toss-ups until basically the final gun.

 

 

 

 

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Rimbo

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9 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

I mean it's a reasonable system but has some issues. Preseason ratings are iffy because they include roster guesses, etc. And recruiting rankings where they use Rivals but not 247, for example at least the last time I checked. Here's how it's done against the spread:

2020 - 51.2%
2019 - 48.2%
2018 - 51.3%
2017 - 51.2%
2016 - 53.4%
2015 - 47.3%

I mean that's not terrible, but there's no reason to take them more seriously than any other advanced system.

That's... only slightly better than a coin flip 4 out of 6 years, and worse than a coin flip the other two.

How's that... I mean, I guess "terrible" would be consistently worse than a coin flip?

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gmr548

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IT Scoop
 

 

 

Eric Nahlin

Humble Scribe
  By: Justin, Gerry, and Eric

Three young players to watch

IT asked a source for three young players who could start this year but probably won’t.

SO CB Kitan Crawford: “The only thing keeping him from starting is he has two seniors ahead of him. He looks like a pro; he has the focus of a pro; he moves like a pro. Always in control of his feet — never too wide or too narrow. He’s patient at the line and uses his eyes well. He’s a guy who doesn’t say much. Not scared to hit you, will play the run, and he’s smart. He’s not just a corner in college, he’ll be a corner in the NFL.“

That last sentence was in response to asking if he’d be a nickel in the NFL.

We talk to a lot of people and Crawford is roundly regarded as one of the most talented players in the program.

FR WR Xavier Worthy: “The only thing holding him back is weight and that really isn’t an issue either. He runs exceptional routes. He reminds of Jerry Jeudy the way he runs his routes, so fluid. He floats in and out of his routes. It’s the same thing with DeVonta Smith. It looks like he’s not running hard; he makes it looks easy. And he’s explosive, can get to top speed in a heartbeat. He’s not afraid to go into traffic and go up and get it. He has hands too. He makes consistently good catches, one-handed, double toe-tap on the sideline. He can do it all. He doesn’t say much and is business-like.”

DeVonta Smith’s name being mentioned is high praise, but it’s said the man at the top sees similarities to the player he helped turn into a Heisman winner as well.

Worthy isn’t a player IT got to know well, so that last term in the above quote is very encouraging and raises his floor considerably.

FR DT Byron Murphy: “He has the ability to start this year. He won’t because of Coburn and Sweat, but he’ll play. He’s another guy who doesn’t say much so there’s a theme working. He has the confidence of someone who has done it before. He worked over [a potential starter] last week — it was bad. He executes his plan very well. His skill level is advanced. Great footwork and he‘s strong. His body is sync from the ground up. Great center of gravity, good usage of hands. He’ll probably play a lot this year and become a standout the year after.”

Murphy uses his combination of 6-foot-1 low man advantage and feet quite well. Like how certain running backs can be hard to tackle, he’s hard to block. Comps to Bravvion Roy are fair but Murphy is better than the former Baylor standout.

Caveat: Anytime young players receive praise, fans expect them to be All Americans their first game. These guys should be expected to flash physical talent at an early age, but they’ll still have big eyes the first few times they see the field.

LB depth

Joe’s linebacker outlook offered a good opportunity to get sourced material on the position.

How linebacker shakes out will be one of the stories of August camp. “Somebody’s going to be left out,” a source said while discussing all the options.

The most interesting nugget is DeMarvion Overshown is still repping at Sam during player driven practices. Sam is on the field in “base” defense. He is in place of the nickel (Chris Adimora). The Sam is a piece that moves around, typically with getting after the quarterback in mind. He can be off the ball or on the line of scrimmage.

David Gbenda has also repped at Sam, as has Notre Dame transfer Ovie Oghoufo. Sam has some overlap with Oghoufo’s main position of X-backer (OLB).

Gbenda seems assured to start, likely at Will (the in-the-box linebacker). He’s the most trusted to call the defense at this point, plus he’s athletic. “It’s his spot to lose,” IT heard. Jeff Choate had good things to say about the young LB during his on-line coaching clinic so positive sentiment extends beyond sources.

Jaylan Ford and Luke Brockermeyer are both working at Mike but IT sources say they could play either linebacker spot. Both are in contention for real snaps at a minimum.

True freshman Terrence Cooks is already moving up the depth chart. He is also at Mike but repped at Sam during the spring.

Two big variables at the position are Devin Richardson, the New Mexico State transfer, and Dele Adeoye who returned to the program after his extended stay in El Portal Motel.

Re: Richardson: “He’s smart, moves better than expected, plays under control, great work ethic and study habits.”

Re: Dele: “Doesn’t have the body control Richardson does, but he has experience and knows what he’s doing.”  
 
We’ll see what he looks like on the field, but I liked Murphy as a take because there’s nothing harder to block than a short nose tackle. Can’t fucking get under them and strong as fuck.
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gmr548

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That's... only slightly better than a coin flip 4 out of 6 years, and worse than a coin flip the other two.
How's that... I mean, I guess "terrible" would be consistently worse than a coin flip?

I mean, that’s ATS not straight up. Professional sports handicappers are typically
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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14663

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On 7/11/2021 at 1:52 PM, Tex-19 said:

Btw, re: WRs -- don't be surprised if Bijan is one of our top receivers this year. Sark likes throwing to RBs and Bijan is reportedly amazing at it. I sure can't imagine any LBs covering him effectively..

It's not just Bijan. Johnson and Keilan are also + receiving threats.

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HtownHorn

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Just now, Tex Long said:

You beat me to adding RoJo. I haven't seen any of Keilan's games, but if you say so, that would be a Good ThingTM.

 

Just basing it off the fact Bama was planning on moving him to WR, because he didn't have any catches during his freshmen year.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19067

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15 hours ago, USNALonghorn said:

Yes we were. We were also a cunthair away from losing OSU and WVU games. There should be a correction factor for Tom Herman coached games:

-Overtime W/L (3 overtimes or greater) = Single overtime W/L 

-Overtime W/L (1 or 2 overtimes) = One possession regulation W/L

-One possession W/L = 2-3 TD W/L

-Greater than one possession W/L = 4+ TD blowout W/L

All kidding aside, I do believe we would've finished 9-3 last year if it wasn't for the cancellations. 

Really going out on a limb there. You think we’d have been able to beat rice and Kansas if we’d have played them 😀

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BigHorn'13

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My guess is Keilan gets used like how everyone wants Whittington to be used, but the injury risk isn't anywhere near as high. Keep in mind that he was listed as a slot receiver for Bama's spring game so catching the ball shouldn't be an issue. 

This offense has me feeling some type of way. Our rushing attack should be good enough to win some games by itself. If the RPO game starts working, watch out. 

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jdhorn92

jdhorn92 1545

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18 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Shit, there is some indication Keilan could even get time at slot.

Im thinking he will be used ala Ramonce Taylor.  Taylor lined up in 3-4 different positions is last year hear.  He played Wideout (remember the one handed TD vs Baylor or the trick play @ Mizzou where we lateraled to him).  He played traditional RB , straight I formation, he played in the slot and he played in a 2 back formation where Davis motioned him out to the flat, not to mention some ST.

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NoName

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21 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

texas:

 

Quote

 

Texas Longhorns

Texas improved significantly in 2020, but it wasn't enough to save Tom Herman's job. Now Steve Sarkisian takes over a gig that is anything but an overhaul.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 20th

Average projected wins: 8.0 (5.8 in the Big 12)

  • Likely wins: Kansas (98%), Rice (96%), Texas Tech (86%), Kansas State (84%), at Baylor (70%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Arkansas (64%), Oklahoma State (64%), Louisiana (61%), at WVU (57%), at TCU (57%)

  • Likely losses: at Iowa State (32%), vs. Oklahoma (27%)

Texas went 7-3 with one loss by two points, one by three and one in four OTs. With few guaranteed wins and no out-of-reach losses, close games will tell the tale again in 2021.

What we learned about Texas in 2020

Sarkisian earned another chance. Five years after substance abuse issues led to his dismissal as USC's head coach in 2016, Sarkisian earned another shot at a top job following stints as offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons and Alabama. His 2020 Bama offense combined nearly perfect offensive talent with brilliant spacing and all the bells and whistles -- RPO action, lots of motion -- of the modern offense.

Texas doesn't have Alabama's level of talent, but the Longhorns have ranked in the offensive SP+ top 10 for each of the past two years. They'll probably score lots of points in 2021.

Bijan Robinson's recruiting ranking was accurate. ESPN's No. 21 prospect in 2020, Robinson caught fire late in his freshman year. In wins over WVU, Kansas State and Colorado, he needed just 38 rushes and receptions to gain 594 yards and score six times.

With QB Sam Ehlinger and four of his top six targets gone, we don't know enough about UT's passing personnel. Either Alamo Bowl hero Casey Thompson or blue-chip redshirt freshman Hudson Card will start at QB, and veteran Joshua Moore and slot Jordan Whittington will have to carry heavy weight out wide. But with Robinson and four starting linemen returning, the ceiling is high.

What we didn't learn about Texas in 2020

Where'd the pass defense go? The UT defense rebounded from 68th to 35th in defensive SP+ in 2020, and now successful Washington coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski takes over a unit that was strong against the run (and should be again with the return of key linemen like Moro Ojomo and 348-pound Keondre Coburn) but terribly shaky against the pass. Needless to say, that's a bad thing to be in the Big 12.

Kwiatkowski has to bring life to a pass rush that ranked 115th in sack rate -- Sarkisian brought in four linebacker transfers to help with that -- and a secondary that was constantly shuffled and unsteady last season. Safety Chris Adimora is a keeper, and lord knows there are plenty of former star recruits to choose from, but stability is necessary.

Texas' history in one chart

Bill Connelly/ESPN

  1. Following its worst season (1-9 in 1956), Texas responded with its best hire: Darrell K Royal, who would engineer 10 AP top-six finishes and two national titles in 20 seasons.

  2. After going 20-12 from 1965-67, Royal tasked assistant Emory Bellard with revamping the offense. His solution -- the wishbone -- would dominate college football in the 1970s.

  3. The two decades after Royal's retirement saw a slow-motion slide, but after a 4-7 season in 1997, UT brought in Mack Brown, its second-best hire ever.

  4. Brown's heyday: 101 wins and six top-six finishes from 2001 to '09, highlighted by Vince Young's Rose Bowl touchdown and the 2005 national title.

  5. The 2010s saw 25% of UT's all-time losing seasons (four of 16), but Sarkisian inherits a program a few years removed from that darkness.

 

 

text:

Spoiler

 

We inevitably overreact to what we see in bowl season. It is the last real thing we see from teams for about eight months, and it's really easy to get sucked into believing that whatever we saw then is what we'll see for months on end when the next season begins. They are traps, and they can sometimes lead us to some poor preseason assessments.

They can also sometimes verify what we were already beginning to think. The Big 12 went 5-0 in last year's odd, cancellation-heavy bowl season. Oklahoma pummeled an admittedly limited Florida. Iowa State and Texas beat two of the Pac-12's more successful teams, Oregon and Colorado, by a combined score of 89-40. Oklahoma State's offensive skeleton crew outlasted Miami 37-34. WVU's defense-dominant squad solved Army.

This was affirmation of what numbers like SP+ had been telling us all season: The conference was pretty deep, and it had learned to defend. Five Big 12 teams boasted defenses that ranked 18th or better in SP+, and six were 23rd or better in February's initial 2021 projections.

Oklahoma, winner of six straight conference titles, is a solid favorite to stretch that streak in 2021, but Iowa State has the pieces to put together another top-10 campaign, Texas just hired 2020's best playcaller (former Alabama offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian) as its new head coach, and the conference is loaded with landmines and tricky defenses. Can the Sooners survive a long Big 12 grind with national title hopes intact? Does ISU have one more gear? Will people realize how strong and balanced the Big 12 has become? Let's preview the Big 12's top half!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC, the seven Independents, the ACC Atlantic and Coastal and the Pac-12 North and South, and the bottom half of the Big 12.

Jump to a team: West Virginia | Oklahoma State | Texas | Iowa State | Oklahoma

277.png&h=60&w=60

West Virginia Mountaineers

After a hard restart in Neal Brown's first year, WVU began to look the part in 2020. Well, one side of the ball did, at least. It's the offense's turn to improve now.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 34th

Average projected wins: 6.8 (4.8 in the Big 12)

  • Likely wins*: Long Island (99.9% win probability), at Kansas (91%), Texas Tech (78%), at Kansas State (66%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Baylor (59%), Virginia Tech (58%), Oklahoma State (51%), at TCU (44%), at Maryland (44%), Texas (43%)

  • Likely losses: Iowa State (31%), at Oklahoma (14%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.

No one in the Big 12 has more toss-up games and more possibilities, good and bad, in 2021.

What we learned about West Virginia in 2020

Building a strong culture takes a while. Brown's second season bore fruit: His Mountaineers jumped from a lucky 5-7 to an unlucky 6-4 and from 98th to 38th in SP+. The February SP+ projections had them improving further, but then three key defensive starters transferred, among others.

In all, 22 guys have entered the portal since last August. Is that a sign of the last remnants of a poor team culture leaving? A sign that Brown's culture-building attempts are failing? Neither? Both? It's impossible to know in real time. But WVU will likely end up in the mid-40s in August's updated SP+ projections.

There's still a lot of defensive potential. Coordinator Vic Koenning left the program last summer after accusations of mistreatment, and basically every defensive assistant turned into a co-coordinator, but the WVU defense still surged to 17th in defensive SP+. They were good against the run and great against the pass, and despite attrition the lineup will still have all-conference contenders in tackle Dante Stills, linebacker Josh Chandler-Semedo and safeties Alonzo Addae and Kerry Martin Jr., who opted out last season. Depth is an obvious concern, but the first string will still be strong.

What we didn't learn about West Virginia in 2020

Where's the offense? The Mountaineers have ranked just 100th and 72nd in offensive SP+ in two seasons under Brown. Their pass efficiency improved in 2020, but the run game was all-or-nothing.

Quarterback Jarret Doege has a high-level efficiency target in slot man Winston Wright Jr., and RB Leddie Brown and wideout Bryce Ford-Wheaton are explosive players. But the line needs to get far more of a push, and the WR corps outside of Wright has a drops issue. Eight starters return, but the ceiling might still be a little low.

West Virginia's history in one chart

Bill Connelly/ESPN

  1. Seemingly every program had a great run in the 1950s. WVU's came under Art Lewis: 24-5 from 1953-55 with three ranked finishes and a Sugar Bowl trip.

  2. After four straight losing seasons, WVU hired Michigan QBs coach Don Nehlen in 1980. He would take them to 13 bowls in 20 years, with two top-10 finishes.

  3. With Heisman finalist Major Harris at QB, WVU started 11-0 in 1988, with every win by double digits, but a Fiesta Bowl loss to Notre Dame denied them a national title.

  4. Under Nehlen's replacement Rich Rodriguez, WVU went 33-5 from 2005 to '07 and came within a devastating rivalry loss to Pitt of the BCS title game in 2007.

  5. Since joining the Big 12 in 2012, results have been ... middling: three ranked finishes and a 10-win 2016, but a .559 overall win percentage.

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Oklahoma State Cowboys

Mike Gundy had OSU back in the top 20 last season. He could have his best defense yet this fall, but can the offense generate consistency for the first time since 2018?

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 29th

Average projected wins: 7.5 (5.2 in the Big 12)

  • Likely wins: Missouri State (99.9%), Kansas (96%), Kansas State (79%), Tulsa (75%), Baylor (73%), at Texas Tech (73%)

  • Relative toss-ups: TCU (60%), at Boise State (55%), at WVU (49%), at Texas (37%)

  • Likely losses: Oklahoma (25%), at Iowa State (25%)

Trips to Austin and Ames could tamp down Big 12 title hopes, but there are enough likely wins to assure another solid season in Stillwater.

What we learned about Oklahoma State in 2020

Hiring Jim Knowles has worked out. Gundy brought Knowles, an aggressive defensive coordinator, in from Duke in 2018. Knowles wants to play man defense and play as physically as the refs will allow, and he's willing to risk some big plays in the name of three-and-outs and turnovers. After middling results in his first two years, Knowles had what he needed in 2020, and the Cowboys leaped from 58th to 18th in defensive SP+.

OSU returns 14 of the 18 defenders with 200+ snaps, including a trio of good pass-rushing ends (led by Trace Ford), an all-around playmaker in linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez and, most importantly, the most physical safety corps in the nation in Tanner McCalister, Tre Sterling and Kolby Harvell-Peel. This is a seasoned defense that could get even nastier this fall.

What we didn't learn about Oklahoma State in 2020

When will the offense reach fifth gear again? After three straight years ranked seventh or better in offensive SP+, coordinator Mike Yurcich left for Ohio State. OSU fell first to 26th, then to 41st last year. Quarterback Spencer Sanders remained up-and-down in 2020 -- his good moments were great, but his sack rate (7%) and INT rate (3%) were too high -- and star RB Chuba Hubbard was slowed by injuries. Outside of Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner, the WR corps was inconsistent.

Hubbard, Wallace and Stoner are gone, and OSU will be hoping for power in small samples. Dezmon Jackson and Dominic Richardson both had huge games late in the season -- Jackson rushed for 235 against Texas Tech and 118 against TCU, and Richardson had 169 against Baylor -- and when Wallace opted out as planned early in the Cheez-It Bowl, freshman Brennan Presley came out of nowhere to catch six balls for 118 yards and three scores. If they're stars, then combined with a strong O-line and a more mature Sanders, this should be the best post-Yurcich offense. But if they aren't, then the skill corps becomes a giant question mark.

Oklahoma State's history in one chart

Bill Connelly

  1. Hang the banner! OSU -- sorry, Oklahoma A&M -- went 9-0 and finished fifth in the AP poll in 1945, but an AFCA committee awarded them the national title in 2016.

  2. After a long run in the Missouri Valley, OSU officially joined the Big 8 in 1960. The Pokes' first winning season wouldn't come until 1972.

  3. In 1987-88, Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders rushed for 4,844 combined yards, and OSU went 20-4 -- 0-4 against OU and Nebraska, 20-0 against everyone else.

  4. NCAA sanctions meant frustration in the 1990s, but Les Miles kick-started a rebound with three straight bowl seasons. He left for LSU, and Gundy took over in 2005.

  5. OSU has been to 15 straight bowls, but Gundy's peak came in 2011 with Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon, a 12-1 finish and nearly a BCS title game appearance.

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Texas Longhorns

Texas improved significantly in 2020, but it wasn't enough to save Tom Herman's job. Now Steve Sarkisian takes over a gig that is anything but an overhaul.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 20th

Average projected wins: 8.0 (5.8 in the Big 12)

  • Likely wins: Kansas (98%), Rice (96%), Texas Tech (86%), Kansas State (84%), at Baylor (70%)

  • Relative toss-ups: at Arkansas (64%), Oklahoma State (64%), Louisiana (61%), at WVU (57%), at TCU (57%)

  • Likely losses: at Iowa State (32%), vs. Oklahoma (27%)

Texas went 7-3 with one loss by two points, one by three and one in four OTs. With few guaranteed wins and no out-of-reach losses, close games will tell the tale again in 2021.

What we learned about Texas in 2020

Sarkisian earned another chance. Five years after substance abuse issues led to his dismissal as USC's head coach in 2016, Sarkisian earned another shot at a top job following stints as offensive coordinator with the Atlanta Falcons and Alabama. His 2020 Bama offense combined nearly perfect offensive talent with brilliant spacing and all the bells and whistles -- RPO action, lots of motion -- of the modern offense.

Texas doesn't have Alabama's level of talent, but the Longhorns have ranked in the offensive SP+ top 10 for each of the past two years. They'll probably score lots of points in 2021.

Bijan Robinson's recruiting ranking was accurate. ESPN's No. 21 prospect in 2020, Robinson caught fire late in his freshman year. In wins over WVU, Kansas State and Colorado, he needed just 38 rushes and receptions to gain 594 yards and score six times.

With QB Sam Ehlinger and four of his top six targets gone, we don't know enough about UT's passing personnel. Either Alamo Bowl hero Casey Thompson or blue-chip redshirt freshman Hudson Card will start at QB, and veteran Joshua Moore and slot Jordan Whittington will have to carry heavy weight out wide. But with Robinson and four starting linemen returning, the ceiling is high.

What we didn't learn about Texas in 2020

Where'd the pass defense go? The UT defense rebounded from 68th to 35th in defensive SP+ in 2020, and now successful Washington coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski takes over a unit that was strong against the run (and should be again with the return of key linemen like Moro Ojomo and 348-pound Keondre Coburn) but terribly shaky against the pass. Needless to say, that's a bad thing to be in the Big 12.

Kwiatkowski has to bring life to a pass rush that ranked 115th in sack rate -- Sarkisian brought in four linebacker transfers to help with that -- and a secondary that was constantly shuffled and unsteady last season. Safety Chris Adimora is a keeper, and lord knows there are plenty of former star recruits to choose from, but stability is necessary.

Texas' history in one chart

Bill Connelly/ESPN

  1. Following its worst season (1-9 in 1956), Texas responded with its best hire: Darrell K Royal, who would engineer 10 AP top-six finishes and two national titles in 20 seasons.

  2. After going 20-12 from 1965-67, Royal tasked assistant Emory Bellard with revamping the offense. His solution -- the wishbone -- would dominate college football in the 1970s.

  3. The two decades after Royal's retirement saw a slow-motion slide, but after a 4-7 season in 1997, UT brought in Mack Brown, its second-best hire ever.

  4. Brown's heyday: 101 wins and six top-six finishes from 2001 to '09, highlighted by Vince Young's Rose Bowl touchdown and the 2005 national title.

  5. The 2010s saw 25% of UT's all-time losing seasons (four of 16), but Sarkisian inherits a program a few years removed from that darkness.

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Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State began 2020 with a loss to Louisiana, then ripped off its first ever top-10 campaign. Most of the Cyclones' key pieces return; do they have one more gear in them?

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: seventh

Average projected wins: 9.4 (6.8 in the Big 12)

  • Likely wins: at UNLV (99%), Northern Iowa (99%), Kansas (99%), at Texas Tech (87%), at Kansas State (85%), at Baylor (80%), TCU (78%), Oklahoma State (75%), at WVU (69%), Texas (68%)

  • Relative toss-ups: Iowa (63%)

  • Likely losses: at Oklahoma (33%)

When Matt Campbell took over in 2016, ISU had won seven of its past 38 Big 12 games. The Cyclones are projected favorites in eight of nine this fall, and all by at least eight points.

What we learned about Iowa State in 2020

The key pieces are in place. Few in college football have ever evaluated and developed talent like Campbell and his staff have of late. They have turned mid-three-star recruits, such as QB Brock Purdy, running back Breece Hall, tight end Charlie Kolar and defensive end Will McDonald IV, into All-American candidates. They have stocked the two-deep with worthy role players in a creative system catered specifically to the talent you can attract to Ames. They are converting top-50 recruiting classes into a genuine top-10 product.

We'll see if they can continue to do it when this batch of stars is gone, but that's a concern for another year. ISU is stocked in 2021.

What we didn't learn about Iowa State in 2020

What's the ceiling here? Improvement is not supposed to be linear. Progress comes in fits and starts, in two steps forward and one back. But after ranking 77th in SP+ the year before Campbell's arrival, ISU has improved to 66th, 44th, 38th, 24th and 11th, respectively. And now they have one of the better returning production averages in the country.

At some point, you hit your head on some sort of ceiling, right? Or is Campbell going to keep defying college football physics and generate a top-five level of play?

Can the Cyclones flip the big-play battle? As mentioned in June's If List piece, ISU won despite big plays, not because of them.

Efficiency is the most important and sustainable aspect of football, and the Cyclones tend to win that battle. But explosive plays win individual games, and ISU's less than elite when it comes to either making or preventing them. Can a reliable big-play talent -- Joe Scates, perhaps? -- emerge alongside Hall and wideout Xavier Hutchinson? Can the zone that defense coordinator Jon Heacock so heavily relies on tighten up a bit more despite the loss of safety Lawrence White IV?

Iowa State's history in one chart

Bill Connelly/ESPN

  1. ISU was at an all-time low when Johnny Majors arrived in 1968. He had them in their first bowl just three years later.

  2. When Majors left for Pitt (where he'd win a national title), Earle Bruce took things even further, producing three eight-win seasons and ISU's first ranked finish.

  3. ISU wasn't very memorable in the 1980s and 1990s, but the Davis brothers were. Troy rushed for 4,195 yards in 1995-96, then Darren rushed for 3,559 from 1997 to '99.

  4. After winning 13 games in his first five years, Dan McCarney engineered a 9-3 season in 2000, then nearly won Big 12 North titles in 2004-05. Then everything collapsed again.

  5. The Cyclones' current trajectory is almost unprecedented. ISU hasn't won a conference title since 1912, and there might never be a better chance to end that incredible streak.

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Oklahoma Sooners

The stars are aligning, part one: Quarterback Spencer Rattler and his top two WRs are back, the defense has surged for two straight years, and last year's CFP teams all have big pieces to replace.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: third

Average projected wins: 10.3 (7.6 in the Big 12)

  • Likely wins: WCU (99.9%), at Kansas (99%), Texas Tech (96%), at Tulane (91%), at Kansas State (91%), at Baylor (87%), WVU (86%), TCU (86%), Nebraska (83%), at Oklahoma State (75%), vs. Texas (73%), Iowa State (67%)

  • Relative toss-ups: None

  • Likely losses: None

The stars are aligning, part two: Lincoln Riley's Sooners play only one projected top-50 team on the road (OSU), and they're projected double-digit favorites in 11 games.

What we learned about Oklahoma in 2020

Alex Grinch was a good hire. In Riley's first two seasons as head coach, his offense was so good that the Sooners made two CFP appearances despite defensive deficiencies. But it was clear that to win a CFP, the defense had to be addressed. Ranking 84th in defensive SP+ in 2018 wasn't going to get it done.

Riley brought Grinch and his ultra-aggressive 3-3-5 defense to town in 2019, and it has paid off. OU jumped to 48th in 2019, then 15th last season. Once you're behind schedule, you're toast: The Sooners were 41st in success rate allowed on standard downs but first on passing downs (second-and-8 or more, third- or fourth-and-5 or more).

Losing end Ronnie Perkins certainly hurts, but the Sooners still return tackle Isaiah Thomas and rush end Nik Bonitto (combined: 16.5 sacks in 11 games). Linebacker Brian Asamoah is strong against the run, and sophomore corner Woodi Washington is a star in the making. If star tackle Jalen Redmond returns to form after a 2020 opt-out, further improvement is conceivable.

What we didn't learn about Oklahoma in 2020

Does a remodeled skill corps have stability? The return of receivers Marvin Mims and Theo Wease might be all that the sophomore Rattler, likely a top 2022 draft pick, needs to post big numbers. But there is otherwise quite a bit of shuffling in the skill corps: Four of last year's top five RBs are gone, as are secondary receivers Charleston Rambo and Theo Howard.

The upside is massive, as always. RB Kennedy Brooks, a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019, returns after an opt-out, explosive WR Mike Woods arrives from Arkansas, WR Jadon Haselwood is healthy after an ACL tear and RB Eric Gray arrives from tumultuous Tennessee. Add in freshman receivers Mario Williams Jr. and Billy Bowman Jr., and the ceiling is limitless. It's hard to worry about an OU offense. But continuity's good, and this is a lot of change.

Oklahoma's history in one chart

Bill Connelly/ESPN

  1. OU's first run of dominance was still its most impressive: Bud Wilkinson's Sooners won 47 straight from 1954 to '57 and went 107-8-2 with 10 top-five finishes from 1948 to '58.

  2. Armed with the fancy new wishbone offense, OU went rampant again in the 1970s, going 105-11-2 with eight top-three finishes and two more national titles from 1971 to '80.

  3. After one more explosion (33-3 with another title from 1985 to '87), Barry Switzer resigned in 1989 with sanctions on the horizon. What followed was OU's only true dark period.

  4. After 17 wins in four years, OU hired Bob Stoops in 1999. Dark period: over. He'd lead the Sooners to the 2000 national title and nine other top-six finishes over 18 years.

  5. Stoops handed the reins to Riley in summer 2017, and the transition has been seamless. The next time OU doesn't win the Big 12 will be the first since 2014.

 

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