2021 Poker: Raising Covid with the nuts!

[TXSooner518 2438]

Feels a touch weak, but I would just call here. Def not folding. I would call expecting to mostly win. Problem with raising is he can fold a lot that we beat, and casket stuffs us always when he's winning. In other words we are in good shape against his leading range, but not as much against his "calling a river jam" range. Him leading the turn is going to be 2 pair or a flush draw a good amount. We lose to a lot of those hands now. He could have a queen of course, but given your line is he just gonna call a river jam with QJ? Obv if we have a read that he overvalues hands and loves calling, jam it. 

It def feels annoying to just call and he flips 42cc over like it's the nuts, but also remember the annoyance of him just snapping a jam with Q9. 

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Feels a touch weak, but I would just call here.

Same

[Lurch 5922]

I snap call, though I was pretty sure he was going to show me a Q and I’d be missing a value bet. The threat of a boat was really my only concern, but enough to slow me down. He stuns me w A2cc for the nut flush which I had honestly not give him any credit for. Not raising him on the turn probably saved my stack.

Playing smaller suited connectors is great for bluffing helpful turns with equity if called, but I do need to be more aware of the risk (though relatively rare) of getting out flushed. I couldn’t get away from this, regardless.

[disgustipated 39]

1/2 NL, table open for about an hr.  standard raise established is 5xish BB.  UTG+2 raises to 11.  folds to me in the hijack with 6c,7c. is a 3 bet too aggressive here?

[CBT 1282]

it depends. stack sizes and reads?

[TXSooner518 2438]

it depends. stack sizes and reads?

These are the critical factors but I would say readless at a table with big open sizing, given the positions, it’s over-aggressive.

[Lurch 5922]

1/2 NL, table open for about an hr.  standard raise established is 5xish BB.  UTG+2 raises to 11.  folds to me in the hijack with 6c,7c. is a 3 bet too aggressive here?

Generally, yes. Vs most 1/2 players were just calling their open raise with 76s when they also tend to limp a lot, as their raise tells us it’s likely a fairly strong hand. We’re only 3betting AA,KK and something like A5s to balance if you think that’s important.

If, however, this player almost never limps and is also playing a fair number of hands, then we could start 3betting a few more hands, including JJ+ QJs+ and AKo.

76s I’d only 3bet vs a super loose and aggro player

[disgustipated 39]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

 

Generally, yes. Vs most 1/2 players were just calling their open raise with 76s when they also tend to limp a lot, as their raise tells us it’s likely a fairly strong hand. We’re only 3betting AA,KK and something like A5s to balance if you think that’s important.

If, however, this player almost never limps and is also playing a fair number of hands, then we could start 3betting a few more hands, including JJ+ QJs+ and AKo.

76s I’d only 3bet vs a super loose and aggro player

 

as I said the table was only open for about an hr, everyone pretty much was within +/-25 of their original stacks($200), with the shortest being $150ish.  Not a lot of 3 betting, so for the most part pretty soft. I thought about 3 betting to get heads up and have position but I ended up just calling.    Button and SB(shortest stack) called behind me.  flop was 6,7,3 rainbow no club. SB checked, UGT+2 original raiser leads $40.  I raised to $100, Button folds, SB Jams $140.  UTG+2 folds. Know I am behind but cant fold for $40.  board runs out and i dont fill. SB 4,5o.  Had several run ins with SB during the session.  He was the loosest player on the table and saw him do at least 4 rebuys during the session.  

[Lurch 5922]

Exactly how I would have played it. Cooler.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Exactly. SB is atrocious flatting 54o out of position not closing the action.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[Zwylde 812]

I played at Aria last Thursday and Sunday night.  As of Sunday the plexi was still up but more and more twitter reports are showing them coming down so it shouldn't be long before its back to normal.  I was shocked at how little table talk there was.  It was the most boring 12 hours of poker I have ever played.  The only words ever spoken are "once or twice?"   

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

I played at Aria last Thursday and Sunday night.  As of Sunday the plexi was still up but more and more twitter reports are showing them coming down so it shouldn't be long before its back to normal.  I was shocked at how little table talk there was.  It was the most boring 12 hours of poker I have ever played.  The only words ever spoken are "once or twice?"   

Thanks for the report. This is one big reason I haven’t played yet. I love the game but also really enjoy the social aspect of sitting at the table and chatting about sports or whatever. Things are starting to loosen up so I’m hoping to get back to it this summer.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Reno

[Lurch 5922]

On BestBet stream tonight. Seat 9

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

we might need the link again Lurch... its, you know, been 14 months since we last saw it. 

[TonyTexas 10504]

11 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

we might need the link again Lurch... its, you know, been 14 months since we last saw it. 

It’s on Twitch and YouTube. Bestbet live 2/2. Our guy just lost a decent pot. 

Edited May 6, 2021 by TonyTexas

[Lurch 5922]

I’m not sure he folds to a river shove

[TonyTexas 10504]

3 minutes ago, Lurch said:

I’m not sure he folds to a river shove

I don’t thinks so either. Pot odds would allow a call. 

[Lurch 5922]

He just told us he was watching stream. I was pretty loose early so that may have factored in too

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

good fold with the 10s Lurch... that dude is on a fucking heater 

[Lurch 5922]

Someone run the numbers on Q5ss hand

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

once JT folded, it became a 63.4 vs 34.8  hand

 

 

[Lurch 5922]

And I was calling $350 to win $1100, so about right?

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Camera angle cracks me up. Oh hey look there’s Surly on his phone. Good luck.

[Lurch 5922]

4 hrs, went from stuck $660 to up $355

Burned money playing bomb pots and playing a few blinds too wide after button straddle. Two things we never do off stream.

Came in planning to play loose early and then switching to TAG, but everyone was folding so much I decided to stay a bit wider than I normally would. For example, I’m generally not calling with that Q5s hand on the button, though I’d open with it there.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Q5 hand history?

[Lurch 5922]

@1:56:00

7 handed

UTG+2 opens $12, HJ calls, I call BTN w Q5ss. Both are solid players and have me covered. $40 pot

UTG has $1000, HJ has $1600, I have $565

Qd9s6s. UTG+2 bets $40. HJ calls. I raise to $125, leaving $428 behind. UTG+2 jams $935. HJ folds. I call.

3h.

8s.

UTG+2 shows Qh9h. I drag $1186 pot

[TXSooner518 2438]

Such a boss move to be able to link vid instead of just text history!

Pre is pretty marginal if opponents are solid. I like calling there if villains are bad, especially if they love giving up post.

Just not able to fold post, he can't have a hand that really has you fucked. You're 28% against QQ, which is worst case, and only 1 combo of that obv. 50% against AA (no spade), 44% against AA with spade, 52% against AKss, 77% against JTss, and 34% against Q9. 

You're calling $428 to win $673 more, so you need 428/1101 or 39% equity. So slightly losing against his exact hand. But against a range of QQ+, 99, 55, AQs, Q9s, AKss, JTss, we have 50%, so a hugely winning call. (I didn't include AQo to account for him maybe folding some AQ combos, dunno how likely that is, but adding all AQ just drops us to 49%). Our equity goes up a bit to 51% if he has other nut flush spade combos also, since we are beating those. Our equity also goes up if he can also have 95s combos. 

Edited May 6, 2021 by TXSooner518

[Lurch 5922]

In a standard game, I’m virtually never coming in pre w Q5s on the button unless I’m opening.

If you watch the action leading up to it, you’ll see a lot of timid/tight players. I actually came to the conclusion that the only two other solid players besides me were these two. I thought UTG+2 could be slipping towards too wide and HJ was getting high off his own rungood. Those reads, plus button, plus the cheaper than norm open (I was in the $15-20 range all night) all drove me to call light.

[Lurch 5922]

0:51:30 is probably the most interesting hand of the night (and a hand that set up several later in the night)

8 handed

BTN straddle. SB calls. BB (guy who was villain in hand above) makes it $20. UTG calls. I make it $65 in LJ w TT. All but UTG fold. Honestly, I’m not sure why I did this. Maybe the Jack kicking in. I shouldn’t be raising and the sizing is shit. $158 pot.

I started w $650 and he has me covered as big stack at table

Jh5c4s. UTG donk bets $60. It was weird and unexpected. I see poor players do this occasionally, but rarely solid ones. It made me think he was reading that the board missed me or he had AJ/QQ. I decided that $160 would probably take it down continuing the story that I had AA/KK. He calls fairly quickly. $480 pot.

8h. He checks and I decide the only way to win was to barrel. I went with $150, leaving $275 behind. In retrospect, $200 was a better number as it makes it clear I’m shoving river regardless. This time he tanks. I was fairly certain he was folding, but he calls. $780 pot.

Qd. He checks. My only options are jam or check back. Q makes it more likely he had AJ and I didn’t see him folding to my jam. I check and he shows KdJd.

Solid kick to the junk fairly early in the night.

[blacklab 11926]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

This time he tanks. I was fairly certain he was folding

yeah. he moved his cards together in anticipation of throwing them in, then a few seconds later put them back. He wanted to fold but didn't. 

[TXSooner518 2438]

Don't love the TT hand. Ironically, I do think a 3b pre is good and you don't like that you did it. I'd go slightly larger but being in position, think your sizing is fine also. 

On the flop, I'd just call. We have a medium hand, let's play a medium pot. Trying to get someone to fold top pair is not how to make money at NLHE IME.  He can be probing, can have 76, can have a jack. We like 2 of those things, and raising just folds out the weak hands and not the strong ones.

On the turn, check back. Most obv draw on the flop completed. So either he has a jack, a straight, or something we are way ahead of. We won't get value out of something we are way ahead of (I guess he could very rarely have 87s and stabbed flop with gutty and bdfd hoping you have AK/AQ or fold TT/99/etc.). 

River checkback is good, can't extract any value, pot too big to get him to fold a jack IMO. 

The line we took on flop and turn should be with a polarized range with our nutted hands and our weakest hands with no SDV, not our middle strength hands like TT.  Also if we do that, should prob just jam turn for a pot sized bet, rather than going 150 into 480 then 275 into 780 or 200 into 480 and then 225 into 880.  Leaving 1/3 - 1/4 pot size jam on river is pretty rough if we want any bluff combos. And if we go one sizing for value and one for bluffs, that will fall apart fairly quickly, esp with streaming.

Edited May 6, 2021 by TXSooner518

[goatsaag 279]

13 minutes ago, TXSooner518 said:

River checkback is good, can't extract any value, pot too big to get him to fold a jack IMO.

Should the way he almost folded on the turn impact decision making here?

[TXSooner518 2438]

21 minutes ago, goatsaag said:

Should the way he almost folded on the turn impact decision making here?

Hard to say. I think sometimes "almost folding" the turn when the player donked flop, an OESD hits on turn, then they check and "almost fold" is because he has the straight. Also some of the "almost folding" hands can be something like 99 that we already beat and won't call river. Also, probably the most likely "almost folding" top pair was QJ, which is now two pair. 

I think targeting basically exactly KJ and AJ and hoping he finds a fold for a 1/3 pot river shove is optimistic. That said, I certainly have done basically exactly that in the moment. As Lurch posted earlier, always clearer in the cold light of day.

[Lurch 5922]

Shot taking night at $2/5. Need to dramatically shift gears towards conservatism and targeting select players. Hopefully a few hand histories for discussion...

[TXSooner518 2438]

play good run good LFG

[Lurch 5922]

$2/5

Two limpers to me. I make it $25 on the BTN w ATdd. SB and UTG call. $85 pot.

As4s3h. Checks to me. I make it $60 and SB quickly calls. UTG folds. $205 pot.

Qc. Checks to me and I make it $125. He again quickly calls. $455 pot.

2h. Checks to me. Not sure I’m beating anything that will call a third barrel. I check back and he shows A5cc.

Result sucks but I played this one well.

[Lurch 5922]

Splashy, drunk dude starts opening every hand to $20 blind and the whole table smells blood in the water. I get my shot when he opens UTG. I call BTN w J9dd. SB joins. $65 pot.

9h6d5d. SB checks. UTG makes it $20. I take it to $60 and both call. $245 pot.

7d. Checks to me. I make it $125. SB calls and UTG caves. $495 pot.

8h. SB leads $100. I make it $250 and he tank folds. Nice one

[Lurch 5922]

Lulz

HJ limps. I raise AJo to $25 in CO targeting splashy drunk dude in BB. SB calls. BB practically jumps out of his seat and makes it $125. HJ calls which is all I need to see to bail.

They get it all in on Turn and the board runs out
A23 J J

BB shows AA and I avoid catastrophe

[Lurch 5922]

Hate to leave with this guy burning money but I have a dawn tee time.

4 hrs +$410

Not going to want to go back to $2/2

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

18 hours ago, Lurch said:

 BB practically jumps out of his seat and makes it $125.

ive only been at a table once when that happened.    i told the story on the old site, when I was living in Kansas City, so I was going to the boats often.

Playing 4/8 limit.  full table.  UTG has won 2 pots in a row, which means this pot is a kill pot its now $8/16 limit.   

i am in the process of sitting down UTG +2 having just bought in for $300.    UTG is notorious for playing his kill pot no matter what happens.   FTA limps for $8.  I look down at AA... and raise to $16. Guy to my left kinda freaks out and re raises to $24. button calls, UTG & limper calls, I cap the action to $32 (max 4 bets per turn), everyone calls.   great 5 way pot with AA... $160 and some change in the pot.  

flop comes 223.  

UTG leads out for 8, UTG 1 calls, I raise to $16. guy to my left INSTA-raises, button calls, UTG  caps it at $32.... and my alarms are going off here.  There is no fucking way this clown should have  a 2. but its possible. UTG1 folds..... I make a crying call of another $16. So do the other 2 in the hand.  so ~$400 in the pot. 

Turn is an off-suit Q.

I cannot describe the reaction of the guy to my left.... jack in the box isnt even an accurate description.  I mean this fucker jumps like 9 feel high and does this:

 

anyone with a brain knows this fuck has QQ.  so this time it checks around to him and he bets out $16.  and the other 2 just call...    this just surprises the shit out of me, anyone paying attention knows hes got a monster....

i know I am well and truly fucked at this point.  guy to my left is shaking like a leaf with adrenaline.

ive got 2 outs.  but its $16 to call a pot worth  $460.   my equity sucks, but i know Ive got to call for the 5% chance......

River is the 2 outer....   A.......

UTG  fucking bets out!   and I know for damn sure the guy to my left is gonna raise... so fuck it, lets just call.  yep he raised to $32... and then my jaw hits the floor as the button suddenly raises to $48.   UTG just calls, and Im like fuck it... if the button slow played 22 so be it.  So i bounce it to $64... and now the guy to my left is whining....  "you really have pocket aces?  no way, no fucking way"  but he sigh calls, as do both the button and UTG.

turns out I had 1 out.     UTG shows A2 suited.  button shows 45 for the completed straight... and yes... jack in the box boy shows QQ.  shocker... i know.

scooped that fucker.   final pot size was somewhere around $700

 

my one and only time seeing a guy telegraph his hand that bad.

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by AUS-97HORN

[AUS-97HORN 11756]

Fintan Hand gets as lucky as possible on a  SCOOP final table....

 

yeah, yeah, there is some luck in poker, blah, blah, even the runner runner 1 in ~9800   happens....

 

this is a whole other level of lucky.

how lucky?
 

Spoiler

$100k extra in his pocket by 3 seconds.

 

Fintan has been staying in Malta for a while (I think its a combo of Covid, Irish taxes, and gambling regs).  

Malta every so often has hours-long power outages... 

He's heads up on the final table. having started with only 30% of the lead's chipstack... grinded for a while to take a 4.5-1 chip lead.

On the FINAL hand, when Fintan hits the "call" button to play a flip...  its the literally the last moment he can see on his computer.   The entire island went dark 1 second later. 

And stayed dark for hours.   Internet was down as well.  He wasnt even sure he won until he was talking to the "after" show.

So if he had delayed 3 more seconds to call that final hand, he would have been unable to log in again, and he would have been auto-blinded down to nothing (and heads-up that could easily happen in less than 5 mins)

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by AUS-97HORN

[Bookman 4638]

On 5/7/2021 at 4:24 PM, AUS-97HORN said:

button shows 45 for the completed straight...

There's just something about big pots that can make people forget to think.

[workswithseed 2086]

I had a fun one yesterday. I'm dealt kj suited. I decide to raise 35 with 100 behind me. Next guy goes all in with a little less than 100. 2 other people call, and I decided to and go all in myself since I wasn't going to stay much longer. Everyone else call.

Flop comes up a q 10

Turn is k 

River is q 

I win it all with a straight. While the others had 2 pairs. 

 

 

 

 

[dirtonia 269]

Did you immediately rack up and leave?

[Bookman 4638]

Check out this first hand. How would you play J-7 offsuit from the BB with an UTG open and Button 3-bet?

 

[Lurch 5922]

Oops.

[dirtonia 269]

Lololol, I watched that steam live. 5/10/25/50 game. Bildo bought in for 75k, topped off another 10k, left game in less than 3 hours with... 0k.

[TXSooner518 2438]

Who among us hasn’t dusted off 1700 big blinds in 2.5 hours?