All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Goofyboy 3292]

Double post

[HookEm 2467]

what is today looking like?  

[UTPhil2006 3807]

53 minutes ago, HookEm said:

what is today looking like?  

Market down 1000, 10 year up 6 basis points up to 0.80 so far 

[cabowabo 4484]

Got quoted today for 3% on a 15 year refinance.  I am on year 11 of a 30 year note at 4.875%.  Doing a refi at 3% would save me almost $49k over the life of the loan.

Is this rate good?  Also, looks like the Fed is gonna drop rates against next week.  Will this bring down the mortgage rates and should I wait?

[LCHorn 2620]

5 minutes ago, cabowabo said:

Got quoted today for 3% on a 15 year refinance.  I am on year 11 of a 30 year note at 4.875%.  Doing a refi at 3% would save me almost $49k over the life of the loan.

Is this rate good?  Also, looks like the Fed is gonna drop rates against next week.  Will this bring down the mortgage rates and should I wait?

Two things I'll respond with--all the big banks are jacking up pricing and it might be best to get in before that becomes broadly adopted. 

Second, if you think the Fed is going to reduce rates then that perception is already built into today's market pricing.  My rate pricing is .625% worse off noon Monday on a 30 and that's because no one gives a shit about the Fed at the moment (or just thinks it won't be good for T-notes).  All of the proposals to pump cash into the economy are stronger signals against further pricing improvement than the chance the Fed drops rates (that juice is pretty much all wrung out, anyway). 

I'm sure Phil will agree, but this week's action and incredible volatility is a further reminder that nobody knows anything.  They might fall back a half percent, go up a half percent, who the hell knows.  A typical week is to have .125% + or - over the course of a week--we're seeing that hourly and the only real value is to justify day drinking. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

Pretty spot on. 

[Sandman 3403]

My credit union was offering 2.875 for 20 or 30 yrs (with points) on their website yesterday, so I called to get an appointment. They are booked solid for weeks, I was told. She gave me the rundown on the numbers and said I could apply online. So after work, I got online and the rates were already up to 3.15 or so. I tried to apply and the website was borked. I had to just shut it down, as I was enraged.  I get back on today and the rates are up to 3.375 for 20, 3.75 for 30. Fuck this shit.

[Redneck Mutha 7954]

Closed late January on an 11 yr refi through RBFCU at 2.65 (promo refi).  Wife looked late last week, it was 2.45, now I see it's up to 2.55.  

[UTPhil2006 3807]

15 minutes ago, Sandman said:

My credit union was offering 2.875 for 20 or 30 yrs (with points) on their website yesterday, so I called to get an appointment. They are booked solid for weeks, I was told. She gave me the rundown on the numbers and said I could apply online. So after work, I got online and the rates were already up to 3.15 or so. I tried to apply and the website was borked. I had to just shut it down, as I was enraged.  I get back on today and the rates are up to 3.375 for 20, 3.75 for 30. Fuck this shit.

Sounds about right.  At least as far as the website.  Even our biggest ones are having hiccups.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

On 3/3/2020 at 11:15 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

It's a real fine line, especially in this uncharted territory.  It's at 1.04 right now, but as you've seen with the DJI, one day it can massively fly up.  Use election 2016 as a prime example.  We went up half a point on rate in a little over 3 weeks and people priced themselves out of refi's, etc.

That being said, you don't have to lock to put in an offer.  If we're ready we can put in an offer and lock when you're ready.  We can float it until then.  Just a matter of when you're comfortable pulling that trigger in this wonky market.

Quote

Mortgage Rates Rising at Fastest Pace in Years

Posted to: Mortgage Rate Watch
Wednesday, March 11, 2020 4:46 PM

Mortgage rates continued a relentless surge higher today.  The move began in earnest yesterday for two key reasons: bond market panic and mortgage market over-supply.  If you take nothing else away from the following, the important part to understand is that rates are absolutely significantly higher than they were this morning, yesterday, and on Monday morning.  The pace of that move has been the fastest since the 2 days following the 2016 presidential election, and one of only a handful of 2-day periods with more than a 3/8ths bump to the conventional 3yr fixed rate.  

[horncyclist 1387]

Fuck. Is the refinance window closed? At banks basically tightening becuase of economic uncertainty?

[UTPhil2006 3807]

18 minutes ago, horncyclist said:

Fuck. Is the refinance window closed? At banks basically tightening becuase of economic uncertainty?

Not at all.  It just isn't at the super low it was at Friday/early Monday.  I was just insinuating that waiting for it to go down when the 10 year was at .49 was a risky move

[horncyclist 1387]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Not at all.  It just isn't at the super low it was at Friday/early Monday.  I was just insinuating that waiting for it to go down when the 10 year was at .49 was a risky move

So I just had a lender go from quoting me 3.625 on a 30 year conforming cashing out $100k on 2/28 to quoting me 4.875 today. Is that the kind of jump you're seeing? Our current rate is 4.375 so we'll just hold off on the plans for the cash if rates have skyrocketed. It seems like they'll have to settle down some and with the prime rate and 10-year low, you'd think that would be near the lows.

Also, can you do a loan in Virginia?

[UTPhil2006 3807]

That’s way too big of a jump.  We have a team affiliate that does all of our out of state loans if you want to email your info to me I can pass it on to him/set y’all up 

Phil - pdubord@prodigymbo.com

[Gil Bang 25948]

I just returned from a realtor's happy hour/pitch session.  
Reports there that a major lender here is saying don't write offers with under a 45 day escrow.

Also, US Bank won't look at refi's at all, even for existing customers. 

Strange times.

I have a good client that owns asian restaurants.  He just backed out of a purchase, because he's understandably worried about his businesses.  

[UTPhil2006 3807]

Rates/lenders are all over the damn place.  We've got two that are a full point off of each other on a VA.  Some are saying 60 day locks, some are saying 1 day UW.  Cats and dogs living together.

[UT_OB1 2219]

@UTPhil2006

Jist signed all the paperwork!  Woohoo!  Feels good to be done. The alcohol and marriage counseling bills probably would have been too much after another month or 2

We've already got bookings at or higher than what we expected this early on. I think we’ve got a good shot being profitable (enough to for a cheap bottle of whiskey) this year, and based on growth we saw in rates/ occ rates year over year on the first one we did, we should be doing good this time next year. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by UT_OB1

[UTPhil2006 3807]

5 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

@UTPhil2006

Jist signed all the paperwork!  Woohoo!  Feels good to be done. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

On 3/11/2020 at 12:21 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Market down 1000, 10 year up 6 basis points up to 0.80 so far 

Only a small bump up after being down most of the day.  Finished at 0.84

[Dbeasy 15048]

Client just told me their finance company said mortgage rates decoupled from the 10 year note for the first time ever. That doesn’t sound right to me. What are y’all seeing?

[UT_OB1 2219]

@UTPhil2006

Until this ReFi I was under the impression all traditional mortgages for investment properties had to be at 75%, but we were able to go to 85% with UWM. How does that work?  

[Captainant 27660]

Any referrals on home inspectors in Houston?

[tx 3 putt 76928]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Any referrals on home inspectors in Houston?

Cypress Inspections <genser@sbcglobal.net>

Greg Genser

TREC Professional Inspector License #2962

Cypress Inspections

281-373-1018

www.cypressinspections.com

gtg@cypressinspections.com

[zork 629]

8 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Client just told me their finance company said mortgage rates decoupled from the 10 year note for the first time ever. That doesn’t sound right to me. What are y’all seeing?

[UTPhil2006 3807]

12 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

Cypress Inspections <genser@sbcglobal.net>

Greg Genser

TREC Professional Inspector License #2962

Cypress Inspections

281-373-1018

www.cypressinspections.com

gtg@cypressinspections.com

Wonder if he's related to Nicholas.  Not a very common last name.

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

Had an offer accepted last Friday with a 60 day close.  Happy with my rate on a 30 year.

Can't help but wonder if end of April will be long enough to see if the virus impact is seen on the real estate market or not.  

[UTPhil2006 3807]

On 3/12/2020 at 4:00 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Only a small bump up after being down most of the day.  Finished at 0.84

0.95 at close today 

[horncyclist 1387]

Feeling sick I failed to lock the 3.625 30-year fixed when it was offered but it seems like the rates have to come back down. This article says that basically banks were overwhelmed by demand, having trouble processing loans and funding them when rates dropped to the historic lows, so they raised rates to meter demand. That makes sense. But if accurate, they should come down gradually again once things settle down. It's reasonable to expect similarly low rates in a month or two, no?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-increased-this-week-despite-the-coronavirus-turmoil-heres-why-you-havent-missed-the-chance-to-refinance-2020-03-12

 

[Horns99 155]

Question, what does everyone think happens to real estate in the next couple of months? People going to stop buying or even looking at houses b/c of the corona plus the hit the stock market has taken ? For Houston add $30 Oil to the equation. & now if mortgage rates go higher... Thoughts ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[UTPhil2006 3807]

1 hour ago, Horns99 said:

Question, what does everyone think happens to real estate in the next couple of months? People going to stop buying or even looking at houses b/c of the corona plus the hit the stock market has taken ? For Houston add $30 Oil to the equation. & now if mortgage rates go higher... Thoughts ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Real Estate pretty strong in Austin and Houston as we speak.  Multiple offer situations, and we wrote 3 contracts this week.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

2 hours ago, horncyclist said:

Feeling sick I failed to lock the 3.625 30-year fixed when it was offered but it seems like the rates have to come back down. This article says that basically banks were overwhelmed by demand, having trouble processing loans and funding them when rates dropped to the historic lows, so they raised rates to meter demand. That makes sense. But if accurate, they should come down gradually again once things settle down. It's reasonable to expect similarly low rates in a month or two, no?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-increased-this-week-despite-the-coronavirus-turmoil-heres-why-you-havent-missed-the-chance-to-refinance-2020-03-12

 

They 100% have been doing that.  We will get repreives, at least at one of them, and then a couple hours later right back up.  Our other main lender we use has been a little more open, but they've got to be getting ran up as well.

As far as where rates will go forward, if you get to a rate you're good with, I'd lock it and not look back.

[Captainant 27660]

What the fuck is going on with mortgage rates? I understand the local spike in demand due to low rates, and typically I feel like we could count on rates going back down a little, but it seems like all the rules are out the window. 

I could lock in a 3.875 30yr conventional, but it stings to do that when it was 3.6 just a week ago 

[aggie08 21498]

Locked in a 3.125%/30-year on Monday morning right before everything started spiking. Pretty stoked on that. Could have had a 2.5% (plus closing costs/points)/15-year, but I'm the idiot that, in the middle of the market crashing and losing 20% of my investments, convinced myself that I'll make more by investing my mortgage payment savings than I'd save in interest.

[Upgrayedd 5810]

On 3/11/2020 at 6:35 PM, Gil Bang said:

I just returned from a realtor's happy hour/pitch session.  
Reports there that a major lender here is saying don't write offers with under a 45 day escrow.

Also, US Bank won't look at refi's at all, even for existing customers. 

Strange times.

I have a good client that owns asian restaurants.  He just backed out of a purchase, because he's understandably worried about his businesses.  

Why 45 day?

[Gil Bang 25948]

2 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

Why 45 day?

Because they are so busy they can't close them in 30.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

2 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

Why 45 day?

UW turn times are longer than normal.  Refi's flooded the Underwriters the past week.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

2 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Locked in a 3.125%/30-year on Monday morning right before everything started spiking. Pretty stoked on that. Could have had a 2.5% (plus closing costs/points)/15-year, but I'm the idiot that, in the middle of the market crashing and losing 20% of my investments, convinced myself that I'll make more by investing my mortgage payment savings than I'd save in interest.

You should be ecstatic with that.  I haven't seen anything near that, much less a 2.5 30.

[Your Mom 4805]

5 hours ago, Horns99 said:

Question, what does everyone think happens to real estate in the next couple of months? People going to stop buying or even looking at houses b/c of the corona plus the hit the stock market has taken ? For Houston add $30 Oil to the equation. & now if mortgage rates go higher... Thoughts ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I hope so.  That would be perfect timing for me. Sold my house 2 weeks ago with multiple offers above asking price. Closing in 2 weeks. Leasing it back for a couple months to give me time to buy a new one without having to make contingency offers. Would love to see prices sink and buyers backing off between now and then. Doubtful though. Nothing decent  in southwest Austin has been on the market longer than 3 or 4 days lately.  
 

[LCHorn 2620]

Pricing aren't going down that fast.  We had someone go under contract last week, list price of $420K and it went for $450K with 12 offers per the seller's agent (caveat Austin, I expect Houston has slacker demand but that's mainly because Houston sucks*).  It only takes two to get the bidding going...

Re: the Aggie08: I never recommend 15's; not enough pricing discount to justify the opportunity cost of having all that money tied up in equity or making monthly payments.  In other words, I don't think you're an idiot (aside from your university preference). 

*but less so than Dallas. 

[Your Mom 4805]

I’d just be happy if some of the buyer competition backed off. Last time I bought a house I was outbid on 6 houses before I got one. All offers above list. That shits frustrating.  

[aggie08 21498]

16 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Re: the Aggie08: I never recommend 15's; not enough pricing discount to justify the opportunity cost of having all that money tied up in equity or making monthly payments.  In other words, I don't think you're an idiot (aside from your university preference). 

Yeah, the additional flexibility is what made up my mind in the end. While it's nice having extra equity in the house, we'd have to sell the damn thing to access it. Glad to hear the same conclusion from people who actually know what they're doing.

By my highly questionable Aggie math, investing the monthly payment savings and getting a modest 5% annual return will break even with the 0.6125% interest savings (minus the closing costs) within 10 years, then skyrocket past.

Edited March 14, 2020 by aggie08

[LCHorn 2620]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Yeah, the additional flexibility is what made up my mind in the end. While it's nice having extra equity in the house, we'd have to sell the damn thing to access it. Glad to hear the same conclusion from people who actually know what they're doing.

By my highly questionable Aggie math, investing the monthly payment savings and getting a modest 5% annual return will break even with the 0.6125% (plus closing costs) interest savings within 10 years, then skyrocket past.

This is exactly what we point out when we have someone who wants to see some data on it.  Plus all the other life events that might require better liquidity.  

[LCHorn 2620]

4 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

I’d just be happy if some of the buyer competition backed off. Last time I bought a house I was outbid on 6 houses before I got one. All offers above list. That shits frustrating.  

Sounds like you need a better agent (or need to listen to them more).  Pretty much everything in Austin is going above list (it’s like seller’s agents all went to a conference on auctions and game theory).  
 

It’s also an area that a good lender can help.  We close purchases in 14 days and have found that to be a good way to punch through the multiple offers even if our client’s isn’t the highest.  Getting beat on offers repeatedly is soul crushing-you have my sympathy. 

[shadetree 66]

I was able to get 3.3 on a 30 year jumbo refi yesterday, so overall pretty happy.

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

Just waiting for things to go back down. I'm roughly 60 days from close on my new build, and hoping that things stabilize a little bit. I saw my FTHB program rate go from 3.375% to 4.000% in like 5 days. It's back down to 3.875% now, so I'm hoping things may start calming down.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Sounds like you need a better agent (or need to listen to them more).  Pretty much everything in Austin is going above list (it’s like seller’s agents all went to a conference on auctions and game theory).  
 

It’s also an area that a good lender can help.  We close purchases in 14 days and have found that to be a good way to punch through the multiple offers even if our client’s isn’t the highest.  Getting beat on offers repeatedly is soul crushing-you have my sympathy. 

🤔

[UTPhil2006 3807]

1 hour ago, Longhornmaniac8 said:

Just waiting for things to go back down. I'm roughly 60 days from close on my new build, and hoping that things stabilize a little bit. I saw my FTHB program rate go from 3.375% to 4.000% in like 5 days. It's back down to 3.875% now, so I'm hoping things may start calming down.

60 day locks aren’t that humongous of a hit if you’re feeling worried 

[Longhornmaniac8 255]

41 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

60 day locks aren’t that humongous of a hit if you’re feeling worried 

I'm waiting until I know I'm within 60 days, and then as soon as I feel like I'm going to get what I can get, I'll lock it in. The credit union I'm using doesn't charge extra for 45 or 60 day locks.

I just don't want it to be 75 days and me have to go through the whole process again.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Longhornmaniac8

[Your Mom 4805]

3 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Sounds like you need a better agent (or need to listen to them more).  Pretty much everything in Austin is going above list (it’s like seller’s agents all went to a conference on auctions and game theory).  
 

It’s also an area that a good lender can help.  We close purchases in 14 days and have found that to be a good way to punch through the multiple offers even if our client’s isn’t the highest.  Getting beat on offers repeatedly is soul crushing-you have my sympathy. 

Lol, no. My guy is good and my mortgage broker is highly regarded on the top (well, sort of near the top-ish) longhorn football boards. 

it was a few years ago and a couple  were offers where I just wasn’t willing to bid as high as I knew i probably needed to. “Just in case they take it” type offers. I’ve been told some sellers also don’t like dealing with the extra requirements of a VA loan.  The house I ended up in was an offer that had been declined at first but then when the winning bidder got greedy on post inspection negotiations it pissed off the seller and he came back to mine.  Anyway, I should have more flexibility and more to offer this time around. 

[Captainant 27660]

So with the fed cutting interest rates to zero... Would that make mortgage rates go up or down with how fucking crazy everything is? We've been in topsy turvy land all week