All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Dbeasy 15078]

Numbers from daughters refinancing. 3.625 for 30 year, good credit, 25% down conventional refinancing. Origination fee is $750 on a $245k loan. Have to decide today on whether to lock.

[horncyclist 1391]

21 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Numbers from daughters refinancing. 3.625 for 30 year, good credit, 25% down conventional refinancing. Origination fee is $750 on a $245k loan. Have to decide today on whether to lock.

I locked the same rate yesterday morning, though bigger loan but still conforming. I got a promise to float down if rates are lower after approval.

Things are so volatile and, the prevailing view seems to be to lock quickly. 

I defer to our resident mortgage experts though.

[APMP 688]

We walked away from a 3.125% 30 year fixed on a new house a few days ago because we were worried our current house wouldn't sell with the new economic reality that was setting in.

Still interested in refi on current house, but not sure rates will make sense to for a while...our current mortgage is a 3.625% 30 year fixed (got in Fall 2013).

[2300 Nueces 163]

4 minutes ago, APMP said:

We walked away from a 3.125% 30 year fixed on a new house a few days ago because we were worried our current house wouldn't sell with the new economic reality that was setting in.

Still interested in refi on current house, but not sure rates will make sense to for a while...our current mortgage is a 3.625% 30 year fixed (got in Fall 2013).

I'm a builder.  No customers in 2 weeks.  My houses are built without financing but dang.  No one.  I started my business in 2006.  Reminds me of those times.

[APMP 688]

I'm a builder.  No customers in 2 weeks.  My houses are built without financing but dang.  No one.  I started my business in 2006.  Reminds me of those times.

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah it's tough. We loved the new house, neighborhood, schools, etc. It was considerably bigger than our current place, so would've been better to hunker down in with two toddlers while working from home for the next few weeks.

 

But we were worried about being stuck with two mortgages in this climate where even relatively safe jobs are seeing pay cuts.

 

I hope that we have flattened this curve enough by the summer to have more certainly about things. At that point, assuming our financial situation is similar to what it is now, we'll start house hunting again.

 

[2300 Nueces 163]

11 minutes ago, APMP said:

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah it's tough. We loved the new house, neighborhood, schools, etc. It was considerably bigger than our current place, so would've been better to hunker down in with two toddlers while working from home for the next few weeks.

 

But we were worried about being stuck with two mortgages in this climate where even relatively safe jobs are seeing pay cuts.

 

I hope that we have flattened this curve enough by the summer to have more certainly about things. At that point, assuming our financial situation is similar to what it is now, we'll start house hunting again.

 

Two mortgages is a deal breaker for sure.  Correct move.

[Horns99 155]

I'm a builder.  No customers in 2 weeks.  My houses are built without financing but dang.  No one.  I started my business in 2006.  Reminds me of those times.

Is this In Austin or where ?

[Horns99 155]

Sorry to hear that man. Yeah it's tough. We loved the new house, neighborhood, schools, etc. It was considerably bigger than our current place, so would've been better to hunker down in with two toddlers while working from home for the next few weeks. 
But we were worried about being stuck with two mortgages in this climate where even relatively safe jobs are seeing pay cuts.
 
I hope that we have flattened this curve enough by the summer to have more certainly about things. At that point, assuming our financial situation is similar to what it is now, we'll start house hunting again.
 

Definitely what I’m worried about on a considerable upgrade in houses

[UTPhil2006 3809]

22 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Up 26 basis points to 0.99 at close today

Up another ~26 points to 1.26 as we approach close today.

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

So, mortgage backed securities down 200 points today. On a day the Dow is down 10%. On a day the 10 year is up 20% in the yield (yields being inverse to price). 

I guess the money decided- screw it- we are burying cash in a coffee can in the back yard. 

 

[2300 Nueces 163]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So, mortgage backed securities down 200 points today. On a day the Dow is down 10%. On a day the 10 year is up 20% in the yield (yields being inverse to price). 

I guess the money decided- screw it- we are burying cash in a coffee can in the back yard. 

 

Pricing in default risk.  Ctrl Alt+P

[Sandman 3410]

My credit union rates went through the roof. From 3.25 for a 30 yesterday to 4.25 today. Fuck that noise.

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

34 minutes ago, Sandman said:

My credit union rates went through the roof. From 3.25 for a 30 yesterday to 4.25 today. Fuck that noise.

They aren’t screwing you. It’s real. I’ve never seen anything like it in one day. 

[Sandman 3410]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They aren’t screwing you. It’s real. I’ve never seen anything like it in one day. 

I didn't intend to imply that they were, I'm just not going to act at those numbers. I've been checking their website several times a day to see how the numbers are fluctuating. It's bizarre.

[UTPhil2006 3809]

We're basically back to around the 1.3's we were at before all of this started, so if anything hopefully this helps stabilize the lenders so we can get back to normal, not torqued up pricing. 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

11 minutes ago, Sandman said:

I didn't intend to imply that they were, I'm just not going to act at those numbers. I've been checking their website several times a day to see how the numbers are fluctuating. It's bizarre.

Sure. No reason to act at all today.  I’m not trying to get anybody to fee sorry for me- bc as far as things go with this I’m super blessed to be in the industry I am in- but trying to make a living , guide customers, or help people in this environment is a beat down. Stuff is unraveling by the minute. Seemingly at random. 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

10 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

We're basically back to around the 1.3's we were at before all of this started, so if anything hopefully this helps stabilize the lenders so we can get back to normal, not torqued up pricing. 

I was discussing this with my production partner today- how much do you believe the “torqued up” pricing is worth in the market right now?  He said 0.375 to rate. I said 0.75% to rate. 

 

[Captainant 27722]

15 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

We're basically back to around the 1.3's we were at before all of this started, so if anything hopefully this helps stabilize the lenders so we can get back to normal, not torqued up pricing. 

 

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was discussing this with my production partner today- how much do you believe the “torqued up” pricing is worth in the market right now?  He said 0.375 to rate. I said 0.75% to rate. 

can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

Lenders (some, not all, but most of the big ones) had beefed up their rates to slow down the slew of refinances that were coming in because of where the market was.  They just simply couldn't handle the demand, so in an effort to cinch off the feed of files coming in they raised their rates to slow it down.

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

can you explain this in non-mortgage-knowledgable terms? Are rates slated to go up to down over the next few days/weeks? 

Next few days? Who knows... weeks?   Same answer. Months- I’d guess they almost have to fall. Unless we are going to decouple mortgage from 10 year treasury forever. Which I suppose could happen. 

Basically when rates fell off a cliff we d n industry hit full capacity and pricing stopped resembling basic fundamentals as we’ve known them because everyone as running at full capacity and redlining operations. 

At some point in time- the hope is- we see surplus capacity and pricing resembles normal fundamentals again so it behaves in a way we can expect and anticipate and isn’t capricious. 

The question I was asking Phil is how much he thinks the capacity see is affecting where we are in pricing. 

[Captainant 27722]

Much appreciated for the info

[Dbeasy 15078]

Daughter decided to lock this morning with an option to float down between now and closing if rates drop by 1/4 point or more. The brokers and lenders I talked with felt we will see 2.99 or 3.25 sometime in the next month or two, but given the craziness of rates, daughter just decided to move forward.

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Daughter decided to lock this morning with an option to float down between now and closing if rates drop by 1/4 point or more. The brokers and lenders I talked with felt we will see 2.99 or 3.25 sometime in the next month or two, but given the craziness of rates, daughter just decided to move forward.

Good time to lock this morning. 

Fyi tonall out there- you can pretty much always renegotiate. 

[immamac 42894]

I locked the day after the first rate cut on a 30 year conforming @ 3.0% no points nothing due at closing except escrow. 

I love my broker. 

[Gil Bang 25987]

On 3/17/2020 at 2:34 PM, bluto said:

VA vs conventional saga continues.... house listed at 275 in DFW area, conventional initial offer was 250, VA was full ask. 'best and final' from conventional was 264 and they have all their ducks in a row. VA offer still hasn't gotten pre qual letter or even a formal offer over, just a realtor email/loi type deal. house only been re-listed since friday after a couple winter months of shit head realtor listing it ineffectively. 

if VA offer doesn't have its shit together I think we're going to go back to conv at 264 with not a penny out of my pocket beyond commissions. 

 

I won't even present an offer if the buyer isn't pre-qualified.   

[Gil Bang 25987]

So, L.A. county is clamping down on open houses, and our local board is supposed to issue an advisory that they shouldn't be held. 

I held very busy ones last week.  I washed my hands every 10 minutes or so, and blasted every surface with lysol every half hour or so. 

[Francisco 2.0 32404]

Figure I'll just wait a while.  We have 3.25 w/23 years left on the loan; want a 15 to refi, but unless the interest gets to 2.5 or so, we might as well just pay extra on what we have.

[bluto 4934]

officially under contract and option period is rolling

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I locked the day after the first rate cut on a 30 year conforming @ 3.0% no points nothing due at closing except escrow. 

I love my broker. 

That was the deal at the best of times. Had 1 guy sneak in a 2.875 but basically you win the prize for great timing. 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Figure I'll just wait a while.  We have 3.25 w/23 years left on the loan; want a 15 to refi, but unless the interest gets to 2.5 or so, we might as well just pay extra on what we have.

Depending upon how much you owe might not even make sense then... I personally think 2.5 on a 15 is definitely on the table- but might be months away. 

[immamac 42894]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That was the deal at the best of times. Had 1 guy sneak in a 2.875 but basically you win the prize for great timing. 

That's neat I think I can get there with points, but why buy points! 

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

That's neat I think I can get there with points, but why buy points! 

Never buy points!  You got a great deal. Congrats. 

[Francisco 2.0 32404]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Depending upon how much you owe might not even make sense then... I personally think 2.5 on a 15 is definitely on the table- but might be months away. 

$244. 

And I agree; unless we can shave at least 3/4 of a point off of what we have today, there might not be much sense in doing a refi.

 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

16 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Figure I'll just wait a while.  We have 3.25 w/23 years left on the loan; want a 15 to refi, but unless the interest gets to 2.5 or so, we might as well just pay extra on what we have.

You basically have a 15 year rate, so just pay it like a 15.

 

10 year down .18 so far today and DJI up (for now).  Just another day in this new norm of craziness.

[Horns99 155]

Jumbo 30 yr rate @ 5% ? Was freaking 3.50% 2 weeks ago


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[Wulaw Horn 19145]

14 minutes ago, Horns99 said:

Jumbo 30 yr rate @ 5% ? Was freaking 3.50% 2 weeks ago


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Welcome to the living nightmare that is trying to be a mortgage guy right now. 

MBS were up 116 points when I started my call with my production partner at 9:30 or so.  By the time we hung up they'd lost 87 points or something and were down to "up 33" or something.

I think I'm going to start drinking in the morning now.  

Before yesterday I'd have said dont worry- we will see it back down to 3.5% in a month or so.  Now?  No idea.  

[UTPhil2006 3809]

Yeah it's best not to try and predict anything...

[UTPhil2006 3809]

On 3/18/2020 at 2:53 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Up another ~26 points to 1.26 as we approach close today.

Back down .14 to 1.11 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

Is LTV being adjusted to account for the recession?

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

8 minutes ago, Rusty Shackelford said:

Is LTV being adjusted to account for the recession?

Not yet, because you haven’t seen people panic selling but yeah, at some point in time valuation on homes are going to tank and that shit sandwich will be lots of fun to eat. 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not yet, because you haven’t seen people panic selling but yeah, at some point in time valuation on homes are going to tank and that shit sandwich will be lots of fun to eat. 

Theoretically.  But no one is panic selling, and if anything ABOR and HAR numbers are very strong right now.

[Wulaw Horn 19145]

3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Theoretically.  But no one is panic selling, and if anything ABOR and HAR numbers are very strong right now.

Sure, Right now nobody is panic selling. But, wait until unemployment hits double digits, sidelines a bunch of borrowers, and sellers want to access their only net worth in the world. It’s coming, I’m 100% certain. I also think it’s 3-6 months out before we will see appraisals diminish much. 

You cant have a recession without falling home prices.  there is no way we are dodging a recession.  The question is- when does this start showing up on appraisals?  

 

[Rusty Shackelford 414]

If the Fed can buy MBS fast enough/funds quit dumping, it will drive mortgage rates lower correct?

[jimmyjazz 46027]

Austin has the benefit of starting this shitshow at a point of unprecedented growth.  Growth has driven demand.  I don't expect that influx of people to drop to zero in the next few months, but of course it should abate some.  

I would not be shocked to see Austin prices drop during the fall by an amount that's not all that different than normal seasonal fluctuations.  An extended recession would certainly change that outlook -- I don't have the numbers on hand, but I seem to recall seeing 20% drops in value during prior recessions.  Anybody have ABOR or Texas A&M data handy?

[jimmyjazz 46027]

Here's some info that pretty much corroborates my gut, with the biggest % drop by far coming during the 1985-1990 slump (~ 27% drop).  Otherwise, 5% is about as big as it gets.  This is median price for Austin - RR - GTown, individual price points and neighborhoods could of course vary:

[BabaYaga 15304]

Foreclosures and evictions suspended for 60 days

Foreclosures and evictions suspended "at least" 60 days.  Look for announcements over the weekend for a nationwide SIP.  Big move.  Lots of movements with county closures (who cares what your rate is if the title company is unable to issue a policy), front-porch closures, ROMS, GAP policies, and other changes.  Look for a jump in PIWs and rumors of 1004s pivoting to 2055s.  

Fuck your cheese, we're moving mountains at this point.  

[UTPhil2006 3809]

Got a little pricing reprieve across most of our lenders right before close

[LurkingHorn 1066]

30 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Got a little pricing reprieve across most of our lenders right before close

Mind sharing what you're seeing? 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

17 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Mind sharing what you're seeing? 

On a 30 yr 740 Cr 70 LTV we were seeing a little over 4 (big lenders were purposely pricing 4.0+ horribly since secondary and hedge aren’t buying above it) but when I checked around 245 it was a 3.625 on that same deal 

[Your Mom 4830]

About two weeks ago I had three offers on my house, all above asking price. The highest offer was actually more attractive than the others for other reasons as well, quicker closing, more money down, friendly leaseback terms, etc. That’s the offer I went with. They bailed on the deal yesterday. We reached out to the other offers but it sounds like they’re all under contract on other houses now. Mine’s going back on the market Monday.  Not too worried about it, I think it will still sell quickly again but I’d like to make that happen sooner than later.