All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

We are looking to sell and move across town. As mentioned above we can sell for twice what we paid for it years ago, but inventory where we want to move is really low.
I’d consider renting for a year to let things settle and attack them but not sure if we can even find a rental.

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

46 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

We are looking to sell and move across town. As mentioned above we can sell for twice what we paid for it years ago, but inventory where we want to move is really low.
I’d consider renting for a year to let things settle and attack them but not sure if we can even find a rental.

I don’t see any reason to believe that the market will be any better in a year, not any more affordable. 
the wizards of smart in the industry are expecting 7% appreciation this year and huge demand. That appreciation and demand figure should be even higher in Austin.  Best day to buy is yesterday. Next best today. 
that’s how I’m reading tea leaves anyway. 

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

11 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

We listed on a Thursday night of what ended up being the weekend of the freeze storm. Had 3 offers before we hit the MLS, 12 offers in total. We listed somewhat aggressively based on comp prices and $/sqft, and yet all offers were above asking (most were $100k+ over list). What in the hell is going on here??? This is not sustainable and every person who put in one of these offers should reconsider their finances. 55% growth in 3 years on this particular home?!  And the schools we are zoned to are dog shit. I rode the central Austin real estate train from 2011-2021, now heading for the burbs. Goodbye and good luck. 
In related news, hey Phil I have some cash let’s buy some investment properties in Houston!

In! 

[UT_OB1 2,217]

11 hours ago, Murfdogg21 said:

We listed on a Thursday night of what ended up being the weekend of the freeze storm. Had 3 offers before we hit the MLS, 12 offers in total. We listed somewhat aggressively based on comp prices and $/sqft, and yet all offers were above asking (most were $100k+ over list). What in the hell is going on here??? This is not sustainable and every person who put in one of these offers should reconsider their finances. 55% growth in 3 years on this particular home?!  And the schools we are zoned to are dog shit. I rode the central Austin real estate train from 2011-2021, now heading for the burbs. Goodbye and good luck. 
In related news, hey Phil I have some cash let’s buy some investment properties in Houston!

Please go invest some where else, I’m having a tough enough time finding my next rental as it is. I don’t think it is Austin stupid, but it is still stupid here. I’m afraid to recalibrate my price expectations, because I know as soon as I say fuck and buy a house to rehab at 25% more (50%?) than I’d pay 18 months ago, the market is going to crash. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

Please go invest some where else, I’m having a tough enough time finding my next rental as it is. I don’t think it is Austin stupid, but it is still stupid here. I’m afraid to recalibrate my price expectations, because I know as soon as I say fuck and buy a house to rehab at 25% more (50%?) than I’d pay 18 months ago, the market is going to crash. 

Such is the way of life, isn’t it?  

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

7 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t see any reason to believe that the market will be any better in a year, not any more affordable. 
the wizards of smart in the industry are expecting 7% appreciation this year and huge demand. That appreciation and demand figure should be even higher in Austin.  Best day to buy is yesterday. Next best today. 
that’s how I’m reading tea leaves anyway. 

Don't you think there has to be some forced sales/foreclosures on the horizon?  

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

1 hour ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Don't you think there has to be some forced sales/foreclosures on the horizon?  

Not in a rising price market. Why get foreclosed when you can sell, almost immediately, for a profit. 
conference I just left said not a chance of a replay of 2008. Not going to have any toxic assets on the books in this nationwide market. 
that seems correct to me. 
 

[UT_OB1 2,217]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not in a rising price market. Why get foreclosed when you can sell, almost immediately, for a profit. 
conference I just left said not a chance of a replay of 2008. Not going to have any toxic assets on the books in this nationwide market. 
that seems correct to me. 
 

Yeah, at least what I’ve seen so far, no one is getting foreclosed on for missing payments the last year. At a minimum, it looks like everyone is just rolling that to a lump sum at the end of the loan term. So that is “future me’s” problem.  
As you mentioned, anyone that is just marginally behind can sell and at least break even, if not profit. For the most part, the only people getting foreclosed on this year (and last with the moratoriums) had already royally fucked up, and the last year isn’t what got them there. 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

Not in a rising price market. Why get foreclosed when you can sell, almost immediately, for a profit. 
conference I just left said not a chance of a replay of 2008. Not going to have any toxic assets on the books in this nationwide market. 
that seems correct to me. 
 

The profit margin wouldn’t matter if they can’t afford the mortgage or would the lender refi them? If they do need to sell it would then increase inventory which is next to nothing in the area we are looking.

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

Not in a rising price market. Why get foreclosed when you can sell, almost immediately, for a profit. 
conference I just left said not a chance of a replay of 2008. Not going to have any toxic assets on the books in this nationwide market. 
that seems correct to me. 
 

The profit margin wouldn’t matter if they can’t afford the mortgage or would the lender refi them? If they do need to sell it would then increase inventory which is next to nothing in the area we are looking.

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

32 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

The profit margin wouldn’t matter if they can’t afford the mortgage or would the lender refi them? If they do need to sell it would then increase inventory which is next to nothing in the area we are looking.

No - you just sell before the bank can foreclose. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

27 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

The profit margin wouldn’t matter if they can’t afford the mortgage or would the lender refi them? If they do need to sell it would then increase inventory which is next to nothing in the area we are looking.

Where you looking?  

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

No - you just sell before the bank can foreclose. 

Agreed, but I assume that would still open up the inventory.

Richardson.

[Dbeasy 15,042]

I have a few clients about to buy in Austin, so for kicks I ran comps for my neighborhood.  House are selling for $100-150k or more over asking, and those houses were listed very aggressively. One example in a lower priced pocket- house that sold for $350k in 2019 listed for &450k and sold for $550k. It’s absolutely ridiculous. 

[hornbri 1,396]

I have a coworker looking in the far west area now. Last week a house listed at 975 and sold for 1.4M. There is a tear down on Mesa listed at 600k right now. 

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

Not too farfetched (Dan Snyder went to Mich St) but Quicken/RocketMortgage just announced they they are the title sponsor of MSU athletics.  It's now Michigan St Spartans presented by Rocket Mortgage.  Mat Ishbia, CEO of UWM, played for Mich St and just donated 50MM to Mich St after UWM IPO.  Not sure if this is a ploy between both sides or something they had in the works already but funny to watch from the sidelines.  MSU the real winner here with all this new money.

[mapplewhite132 309]

15 hours ago, hornbri said:

I have a coworker looking in the far west area now. Last week a house listed at 975 and sold for 1.4M. There is a tear down on Mesa listed at 600k right now. 

Haha my sister was one of the bidders on this house

[Okie State 3,816]

All of this seems very sustainable.

[Upgrayedd 5,810]

7 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Not too farfetched (Dan Snyder went to Mich St) but Quicken/RocketMortgage just announced they they are the title sponsor of MSU athletics.  It's now Michigan St Spartans presented by Rocket Mortgage.  Mat Ishbia, CEO of UWM, played for Mich St and just donated 50MM to Mich St after UWM IPO.  Not sure if this is a ploy between both sides or something they had in the works already but funny to watch from the sidelines.  MSU the real winner here with all this new money.

They ought to erect a statue of the chick who started all this.  Is there a pic?

[chikin23 384]

They ought to erect a statue of the chick who started all this.  Is there a pic?

https://mfi-miami.com/2020/07/crybaby-quicken-loans-executive-and-wife/

[GottaB 594]

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

52 minutes ago, Okie State said:

All of this seems very sustainable.

It is if Silicon Valley people keep cashing out and moving from there. Hopefully Austin becomes high balance by the end of the year. That will help some. 

[Okie State 3,816]

Misread the post.

Yeah I guess the question is how long does that continue? The prices mentioned on this thread are absurd.

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

50 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

They ought to erect a statue of the chick who started all this.  Is there a pic?

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

6 minutes ago, Okie State said:

Well yeah I mean it's great for people like you, but not so much for people who appreciate being able to afford to live here. The market in the Houston area is definitely hot, but I hope we don't see anything like those ridiculous prices that are happening around Austin.

It isn’t great for people like me man. We want a market in balance that turns over and is affordable for

our customers. We don’t want to be doing jumbo loans, with 150k appraisal gaps, where it’s like winning the lotto for a buyer to get an accepted offer. Nobody likes this except seller cashing out and moving elsewhere. 

[Okie State 3,816]

It isn’t great for people like me man. We want a market in balance that turns over and is affordable for
our customers. We don’t want to be doing jumbo loans, with 150k appraisal gaps, where it’s like winning the lotto for a buyer to get an accepted offer. Nobody likes this except seller cashing out and moving elsewhere. 

I misread your post.

[Wulaw Horn 19,068]

Just now, Okie State said:

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

It isn’t great for people like me man. We want a market in balance that turns over and is affordable for
our customers. We don’t want to be doing jumbo loans, with 150k appraisal gaps, where it’s like winning the lotto for a buyer to get an accepted offer. Nobody likes this except seller cashing out and moving elsewhere. 

I misread your post.

No worries. My post isn’t making a value judgment. It’s just saying I don’t see any reason to believe that this affordability issue gets solved anytime soon. It sucks. 
As a Texan, UT grad who loves Austin, and someone whose interests are generally aligned with my borrowers or sucks. But also dealing in reality I don’t see a stopping point to this. That’s all. 

[hornbri 1,396]

I am not sure there are many winners at all here. As someone not planning on moving anytime soon it means more property taxes. For potentional buyers in the market it is extremely stressful. For sellers staying in market they are spending the money into a home somewhere else. The only people winning are people moving out of the area or retirees downsizing. 

[Catpfish 618]

15 hours ago, GottaB said:

Not saying that it's not right, but house hasn't closed.  It just went under contract on March 9th.  

I am going to call BS on this though.  You could have bid on houses twice that size and been real close to winning the bid during the same time frame.  My guess is that they have the addresses confused. 

 

Edited March 12, 2021 by Catpfish
Added info

[CooterBrown 18,005]

Just got my house reappraised for a refinance. 1822 sq feet built in 1962. Bought it for $415K in 2014. Appraisal came back at $724K. That a decent return.

[whoopspat 1]

What are jumbos looking like right now

[Sbbruin 21,833]

2 hours ago, hornbri said:

I am not sure there are many winners at all here. As someone not planning on moving anytime soon it means more property taxes. For potentional buyers in the market it is extremely stressful. For sellers staying in market they are spending the money into a home somewhere else. The only people winning are people moving out of the area or retirees downsizing. 

That's the best thing about Prop 13 protection here in CA.  My house has more than doubled in value since we bought it almost 20 years ago.  And my prop taxes are based on that purchase price, not the current value.  And now we have another provision that allows my (once I turn 55 which is now much closer than I would have ever imagined) where I can take my property tax base and apply it to the new house purchase.  So let's say (all hypothetical numbers) I buy for $500K, sell for $1 mil, and buy for $1.5 mil.  I am only hit with the additional prop tax on that last $500k spread.  They passed it because people were essentially trapped in their homes because any sale and repurchase would be crushing from a tax standpoint.

[Gladeite 375]

There is no end to property appreciation in the Austin in the foreseeable future.  In the upper end, there is a severe scarcity of supply.  In Westlake, inside 360, the cheapest home available today is $1.984 million.  Outside 360, there are a couple listings off Cuernavaca around $750 avg. and three in Lost Creek just under $1 million.  Next cheapest house in Eanes in $1.875.  In Barton Creek(AISD), the cheapest listing is $1.275(1 day on market), next is $1.95 million and next cheapest one is $3.385 million.  Of the 40 listings total in these 3 zip codes, only about 1/2 are not some sort of condo/townhome and the 1/2 of the remainder are not desirable for one reason or the other.  If I were representing an executive today, there are 3 total listings that I would show.  A couple at $2 mil that would be closer to $1.2 million a year ago and are nothing special and a somewhat nice home at $3.385 mil.  Next interesting home is around $5 million.  

Sellers are panicking all over due to nowhere to go.  A home in The Courtyard just went under contract $500,000 over list with 90 day leaseback.   The seller is already frantic  because he has no shot at getting any home in these 3 zip codes in the next 90 days.  

In Dripping Springs, there is one listing under $500,000 and two others under $750,000.   This is a giant bedroom/commute community and there is no inventory.  

[tokamak 6,395]

I don’t understand. Why sell with no place to go and then panic about that decision?

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

1 hour ago, whoopspat said:

What are jumbos looking like right now

Ask me again Wednesday.  Our main lender UWM is re-rolling out Jumbos and sub programs of that on the 17th and I'll have a better idea of where they're gonna be vs our other probably higher lenders

[GottaB 594]

Not saying that it's not right, but house hasn't closed.  It just went under contract on March 9th.  
I am going to call BS on this though.  You could have bid on houses twice that size and been real close to winning the bid during the same time frame.  My guess is that they have the addresses confused. 
 

The realtors in our neighborhood did not disagree.

Our hood for the last few years was a $280-350k appraisal.

Every house is listed way over recent appraisal and winning bid is $100k over that

[gmr548 16,576]

On 3/9/2021 at 11:10 PM, Murfdogg21 said:

We listed on a Thursday night of what ended up being the weekend of the freeze storm. Had 3 offers before we hit the MLS, 12 offers in total. We listed somewhat aggressively based on comp prices and $/sqft, and yet all offers were above asking (most were $100k+ over list). What in the hell is going on here??? This is not sustainable and every person who put in one of these offers should reconsider their finances. 55% growth in 3 years on this particular home?!  And the schools we are zoned to are dog shit. I rode the central Austin real estate train from 2011-2021, now heading for the burbs. Goodbye and good luck. 
In related news, hey Phil I have some cash let’s buy some investment properties in Houston!

You answered your own question in this post. Yes, Austin is obviously red hot with relocations, but investors have been gobbling up single-family properties. Yet another economic trend that was already happening but greatly accelerated by COVID.

[bluto 4,915]

While not a primary driver by any means, I wonder if Travis CAD’s freezing value increases on last year’s residential property* is contributing to the price frenzy. The lower the tax bill (and interest of course) the more the principal on monthly payment. Sounds like a shit ton of the action is all cash though.

*You damn well better have homestead on your place in Travis Co this year, it’s gonna be bigly no loob if not, or if you aren’t eligible. TCAD has two yrs of market catchup to make up for and taxing entities are gonna be hooongry for rev with the covid impacts.

[hornian 5,210]

10 hours ago, bluto said:

While not a primary driver by any means, I wonder if Travis CAD’s freezing value increases on last year’s residential property* is contributing to the price frenzy. The lower the tax bill (and interest of course) the more the principal on monthly payment. Sounds like a shit ton of the action is all cash though.

*You damn well better have homestead on your place in Travis Co this year, it’s gonna be bigly no loob if not, or if you aren’t eligible. TCAD has two yrs of market catchup to make up for and taxing entities are gonna be hooongry for rev with the covid impacts.

Part of me thinks the pause was to try to put Five Stone/Pro Tax/Et. Al. out of business. "Try to make it a year on little to no revenue, you pains in our asses."

[bluto 4,915]

Part of me thinks the pause was to try to put Five Stone/Pro Tax/Et. Al. out of business. "Try to make it a year on little to no revenue, you pains in our asses."

There was def a decent chunk of that to it.

[Catpfish 618]

TCAD is still hearing protests from last year.  The tax service that we use for our office building called and said that they still don't have a resolution and not to pay the taxes (they can't penalize you if you haven't been billed) until we get the actual bill from the county.  That could really makes things interesting when the new valuations come out next month.

 

 

 

[Gil Bang 25,923]

On 3/12/2021 at 10:13 AM, whoopspat said:

What are jumbos looking like right now

PM Vic Mackey

[Gil Bang 25,923]

On 3/12/2021 at 10:21 AM, Sbbruin said:

That's the best thing about Prop 13 protection here in CA.  My house has more than doubled in value since we bought it almost 20 years ago.  And my prop taxes are based on that purchase price, not the current value.  And now we have another provision that allows my (once I turn 55 which is now much closer than I would have ever imagined) where I can take my property tax base and apply it to the new house purchase.  So let's say (all hypothetical numbers) I buy for $500K, sell for $1 mil, and buy for $1.5 mil.  I am only hit with the additional prop tax on that last $500k spread.  They passed it because people were essentially trapped in their homes because any sale and repurchase would be crushing from a tax standpoint.

Yeah, the tax portability thing is Prop 19, which only recently passed.  The CA Association of Realtors pushed it hard, thinking it would increase supply.  The idea is this:  Mr. and Mrs. Jones have raised their kids and are now empty-nesters in a big house.  They would prefer to move to a small condo, but they are paying Property Tax based on the 100,000 that they paid 25 years ago.  They can sell their house for 750,000 and get that condo for 500,000, but they cannot afford the tax on the 500,000 purchase, so they stay in a big house that they don't need.   Now, they can afford to downsize and free up that bedroom count and square footage for somebody that needs it. 

This has happened in some counties for years, but now it's state wide. 

(Of course, the "Jones" scenario above is hypothetical)  

Edited March 15, 2021 by Gil Bang

[bluto 4,915]

TCAD is still hearing protests from last year.  The tax service that we use for our office building called and said that they still don't have a resolution and not to pay the taxes (they can't penalize you if you haven't been billed) until we get the actual bill from the county.  That could really makes things interesting when the new valuations come out next month.
 
 
 

Yep, we’re waiting on hearings too after they effed us on an initial run. Tcad is a fucking sham compared to every other large CAD around the state. Just pathetic and combative at every turn

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

On 3/12/2021 at 12:13 PM, whoopspat said:

What are jumbos looking like right now

New program rolled out this morning and they basically rolled all the quirky HB Conventional and Bank Buster Jumbo things they had before all into "Prime Jumbo" and bettered the pricing.  Right now it's 3.125 on the cusp of 3.0.  Good thing on this program is it goes up to 90% (well 89.9999%) LTV which really only one other lender had before and they sucked.

[tokamak 6,395]

I'm absolutely floored by how bad UWM's consumer-facing web portal is. It looks like the internet circa 1994.

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

On 3/17/2021 at 11:22 AM, tokamak said:

I'm absolutely floored by how bad UWM's consumer-facing web portal is. It looks like the internet circa 1994.

I'm guessing as much as they're doing to become the biggest in the market that will be their next big upgrade.

[bluto 4,915]

Saw where uwm ceo has banned any broker from that platform or w/e if they use rocket mortgage. Seems like a nutjob.

[UTPhil2006 3,806]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

Saw where uwm ceo has banned any broker from that platform or w/e if they use rocket mortgage. Seems like a nutjob.

Mat's pretty intelligent.  Fairway Mortgage was involved as well but I can't say that we've ever used them.  See above for the whole Quicken/UWM spat.  But we rarely used Quicken and UWM cranked down their rates so win win for us.

[ZB'Tejas 593]

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5217-S-Scout-Island-Cir-Austin-TX-78731/29351323_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

What’s going on here?


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