All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[UTPhil2006 3909]

23 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5217-S-Scout-Island-Cir-Austin-TX-78731/29351323_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

What’s going on here?


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That is definitely a Surly member FSBO

[Hefeweizen 5416]

30 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

That is definitely a Surly member FSBO

Holy shit I lost it on the laptop with chess on it.  Namibian crystals is a nice touch.  This has to be Chad Briscoe’s mansion.

[tokamak 6685]

I bet the neighbors are really sad to be losing this dude from the neighborhood.

[KYHorn 17567]

4 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5217-S-Scout-Island-Cir-Austin-TX-78731/29351323_zpid/?utm_campaign=iosappmessage&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=txtshare

What’s going on here?


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That was hilarious. Think he just put the random pics to get shares on his listing or is Keep Austin Weird still alive and well?

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1108]

Thinking of selling our house in Circle C, looking for something newer, but damn that lack of places to potentially move within the area.  Just for the hell of it, I looked at the Houston area since I worked there for a while, and prices aren't much worse than they were 5 years ago, especially in the burbs, and there's oodles of houses for sale all over the place.  What's the story with Houston?

[Anastasis 23699]

6 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

What's the story with Houston?

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1108]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I'm not sure I get your point, unless you're saying all of Houston is crap like that, so no wonder houses aren't scarce.

[Anastasis 23699]

Just what I think about when talking H town and esp the burbs. 

[tokamak 6685]

The deal with Houston is that it’s built on a vast plain with damn near limitless ability to sprawl North, West, and South. Supply will never be a problem here. Fulshear is hot right now for crying out loud. Pretty soon they’ll be building subdivisions in Sealy, and I’m only halfway joking.

The two industries that butter our bread are energy and healthcare. I assume O&G has plenty of good times left but it’s never going to truly boom again. The region has made a lot of noise about pivoting from healthcare delivery to much higher value biotech. Hasn’t happened yet. I think lack of a top class university that’s bigger than a very large high school is the main problem. These things take time in any case. I’m also a couple margaritas deep right now and talking out of my ass so take it FWIW.

Basically we’re lacking several of the ingredients that have turned Austin into an insane boomtown right now. No tech industry, lower desirability to people from the coasts, no major university, uninteresting geography and cityscape. It’s a nice sellers market at the moment here but nothing like the frenzy happening there.

[J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. 1108]

25 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Just what I think about when talking H town and esp the burbs. 

My first thought was "where is that?"  My second thought was "Doesn't matter, it could be any of about 1,000 places like that around there."

Edited March 20, 2021 by J.R. Juniors Junior Jr.

[Anastasis 23699]

11 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I think lack of a top class university that’s bigger than a very large high school is the main problem.

But University of Houston. Lulz. 

[Anastasis 23699]

29 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

I'm not sure I get your point, unless you're saying all of Houston is crap like that, so no wonder houses aren't scarce.

If you go to church in a strip mall you deserve to burn in hell for eternity. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Fulshear is great...

[HRSchenker 2331]

DFW market is absolutely insane right now. Another neighbor of mine is listing her home. $315k purchase price, listed for $410k, and this morning there is a cash bidding war approaching $450k.

[Gil Bang 26177]

7 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

DFW market is absolutely insane right now. Another neighbor of mine is listing her home. $315k purchase price, listed for $410k, and this morning there is a cash bidding war approaching $450k.

That's not "insane" as far as some markets.  In my neck of the woods, the house would have been purchased for 315, listed for 750, and have multiple offers over 800.

 

I've been semi-retired since COVID started, but looking forward to getting back in the game later this year.  I'm really happy that I'm not working with any buyers right now, because it would be a fucking beating.  

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

23 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

That's not "insane" as far as some markets.  In my neck of the woods, the house would have been purchased for 315, listed for 750, and have multiple offers over 800.

 

I've been semi-retired since COVID started, but looking forward to getting back in the game later this year.  I'm really happy that I'm not working with any buyers right now, because it would be a fucking beating.  

As a mortgage guy all I work with is buyers. You aren’t wrong. It’s rough out there. 

[Okie State 3888]

So what's driving this? Is it just the rates? I guess savings are at all time highs too so people ready to spend money.

We're ready to buy if something comes up, but I'm not interested in getting into bidding wars so not sure it's the right time for us. Maybe we'll just sell and move in with the in-laws until things calm down...that sounds awesome.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

1 minute ago, Okie State said:

So what's driving this? Is it just the rates? I guess savings are at all time highs too so people ready to spend money.

We're ready to buy if something comes up, but I'm not interested in getting into bidding wars so not sure it's the right time for us. Maybe we'll just sell and move in with the in-laws until things calm down...that sounds awesome.
 

What market?  I wouldn’t count on things calming down. 
Not to be too flippant but what’s causing it is the same as it ever was- supply and demand. That’s now bidding wars and seller markets happen. 
Covid would be my biggest guess as to root cause. People haven’t been able to spend money for a year and have been staying home an inordinate amount of time. Cash to burn and priority on house. I texas we also have large international migration as well as internal migration from other areas that are high cost and/or people leaving due to that/government/the great sorting. 
I’m just guessing. 

[Okie State 3888]

What market?  I wouldn’t count on things calming down. 
Not to be too flippant but what’s causing it is the same as it ever was- supply and demand. That’s now bidding wars and seller markets happen. 
Covid would be my biggest guess as to root cause. People haven’t been able to spend money for a year and have been staying home an inordinate amount of time. Cash to burn and priority on house. I texas we also have large international migration as well as internal migration from other areas that are high cost and/or people leaving due to that/government/the great sorting. 
I’m just guessing. 

West Houston burbs. I don't get the supply issue here. There are so many damn houses it's almost disgusting. We're not interested in moving further West though which is the problem I guess.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

16 minutes ago, Okie State said:

21 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What market?  I wouldn’t count on things calming down. 
Not to be too flippant but what’s causing it is the same as it ever was- supply and demand. That’s now bidding wars and seller markets happen. 
Covid would be my biggest guess as to root cause. People haven’t been able to spend money for a year and have been staying home an inordinate amount of time. Cash to burn and priority on house. I texas we also have large international migration as well as internal migration from other areas that are high cost and/or people leaving due to that/government/the great sorting. 
I’m just guessing. 

West Houston burbs. I don't get the supply issue here. There are so many damn houses it's almost disgusting. We're not interested in moving further West though which is the problem I guess.

Might make sense to sell and do something temporarily to let the market calm down. If it’s Austin or Dallas I’m buying now personally. Houston? Eh- we are always a big production builder away from tipping supply back in favor of a buyer imo. 

[Okie State 3888]

Yeah I really don't know what houses are actually selling for here, but they go from listed to pending within 2-3 days in the neighborhoods we're looking at. I have to imagine that means multiple offers.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

9 minutes ago, Okie State said:

Yeah I really don't know what houses are actually selling for here, but they go from listed to pending within 2-3 days in the neighborhoods we're looking at. I have to imagine that means multiple offers.

I haven’t had a buyer that wasn’t in a multiple offer situation in months. 

Edited March 21, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[Okie State 3888]

I haven’t had a buyer that wasn’t in a multiple offer situation in months. 

I'm sure that's the case right now. I also feel like sometimes it's bullshit to jack the price up, but I have no proof. The house we're currently in was on the market for a while and magically had 'Multiple offers!! Put your best offer in NOW!' the day we bid on it. Ended up paying full asking which pissed me off at the time and honestly I wish we would have backed out.

[troph 25094]

1 minute ago, Okie State said:

I'm sure that's the case right now. I also feel like sometimes it's bullshit to jack the price up, but I have no proof. The house we're currently in was on the market for a while and magically had 'Multiple offers!! Put your best offer in NOW!' the day we bid on it. Ended up paying full asking which pissed me off at the time and honestly I wish we would have backed out.

If it’s bullshit for a seller to drive the price higher in a sellers market then it’s bullshit for buyers to take advantage when times are tough. 

[Okie State 3888]

If it’s bullshit for a seller to drive the price higher in a sellers market then it’s bullshit for buyers to take advantage when times are tough. 

It wasn't a seller's market at the time.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

2 minutes ago, troph said:

If it’s bullshit for a seller to drive the price higher in a sellers market then it’s bullshit for buyers to take advantage when times are tough. 

I think what he’s saying is he thinks the agent is lying sometimes about there being multiple offers or asking for best and highest. I think. 

[Okie State 3888]

I think what he’s saying is he thinks the agent is lying sometimes about there being multiple offers or asking for best and highest. I think. 

I don't know if that's the case or not. I just got that vibe on ours. It's a different market now.

[troph 25094]

Oh yeah agent ethics ... don’t even get me started.  

[Gil Bang 26177]

Oh yeah agent ethics ... don’t even get me started.  

Go ahead, I’d love to hear it.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Go ahead, I’d love to hear it.

I mean- 80% of the people in your profession are bored housewives who slap a sign on the side of their car and call themselves agents. They give the top 5 or 10 percent of your profession, who are really good, a black eye. There is a higher beta for professionalism and competence in your profession than any other I’ve ever run into. 
Reading your stuff on here it’s beyond clear that you are awesome at your job. And it’s an important job. 80% of the licensed people in it are clowns (and I realize similar could be said for mortgage- but it’s less than real estate agents). 
maybe it’s different in CA bc of how high value the properties are. But that’s the case around here I promise. 

[burntorangebongos 10809]

I really don't want to sell. I'm in Lakeway backing into a greenbelt. It made me want the home I'm in and I think it will help me sell my house. I don't really want to sell but this may be a great time to cash my chips and walk. My next door neighbor just sold his house. He and his wife saw how things were going and decided to cash out. They priced aggressively and ended up selling 160000 over listing. Fuck me. That means my taxes are going up for sure. Now I'm thinking I need to sell but I don't really want to right now because I don't know where to go.  If I sell, I need to just go ahead and retire. There won't be a reason to go from a low cost house(I paid off the mortgage) into something else in the Austin area where I'd be paying high dollar even with a cash buy.

I guess I'm here where I have to make these decisions and I don't have a plan. I have always wanted to live in a mountain town where I could walk to everything and then be a winter Texan in a condo on SPI as a renter. But I don't know if that is doable anymore. All I can say is that I am pissed Mexico hasn't gotten their shit together so I could have moved into an affordable mountain town there where I could walk to everything.  

So if you were in my boots, mid-50s just trucking along with everything copesetic and able to manage just fine as is....would you cash out your chips even though you like where you live? Even though it means leaving Austin because I'd have no reason to stay and I should go ahead and retire?

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

19 minutes ago, burntorangebongos said:

I really don't want to sell. I'm in Lakeway backing into a greenbelt. It made me want the home I'm in and I think it will help me sell my house. I don't really want to sell but this may be a great time to cash my chips and walk. My next door neighbor just sold his house. He and his wife saw how things were going and decided to cash out. They priced aggressively and ended up selling 160000 over listing. Fuck me. That means my taxes are going up for sure. Now I'm thinking I need to sell but I don't really want to right now because I don't know where to go.  If I sell, I need to just go ahead and retire. There won't be a reason to go from a low cost house(I paid off the mortgage) into something else in the Austin area where I'd be paying high dollar even with a cash buy.

I guess I'm here where I have to make these decisions and I don't have a plan. I have always wanted to live in a mountain town where I could walk to everything and then be a winter Texan in a condo on SPI as a renter. But I don't know if that is doable anymore. All I can say is that I am pissed Mexico hasn't gotten their shit together so I could have moved into an affordable mountain town there where I could walk to everything.  

So if you were in my boots, mid-50s just trucking along with everything copesetic and able to manage just fine as is....would you cash out your chips even though you like where you live? Even though it means leaving Austin because I'd have no reason to stay and I should go ahead and retire?

 Nah. I don’t think this is a bubble... I think this is the new normal. If I’m right that means there isn’t any sense of- you got to get out while the getting is good - that will be going on. Property values will be high and continue to go higher as more people move to Austin. 
You don’t have to cash out right now bc the market is probably more or less rational- even if someone wanting time buy in Austin might not like that fact. 
that said if you want to retire and do something else nows a great time to be looking to sell. But I wouldn’t let that be the driving factor. And mid 50’s is probably young to retire, but for each their own.  What would you do all day?  Seems really boring. 
 

that said- if you were ever looking for a second or third act and had something you were passionate about this would be good opportunity to make that happen. 

[Gil Bang 26177]

7 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I mean- 80% of the people in your profession are bored housewives who slap a sign on the side of their car and call themselves agents. They give the top 5 or 10 percent of your profession, who are really good, a black eye. There is a higher beta for professionalism and competence in your profession than any other I’ve ever run into. 
Reading your stuff on here it’s beyond clear that you are awesome at your job. And it’s an important job. 80% of the licensed people in it are clowns (and I realize similar could be said for mortgage- but it’s less than real estate agents). 
maybe it’s different in CA bc of how high value the properties are. But that’s the case around here I promise. 

FIrst off, thanks for the compliment. 

I may agree about the 80% being clowns, but Troph mentioned "ethics".  I don't really believe that the "clowns" in my business are unethical.  Hell, the agents that I've had issues with are the more successful ones.  In fact, the most "successful" agent in my town?  I won't do business with her, because she tried to fuck me on a deal.  I won't show her listings, and, if I were to receive an offer from her on one of my listings, I'd caution the seller about her.   Another prominent agent in my town happens to be the mayor.  I find it beyond outrageous that she takes listings on development projects that came across her desk during the approval process.   I voted against her last cycle, and gave money to her opponent. 

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

48 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

FIrst off, thanks for the compliment. 

I may agree about the 80% being clowns, but Troph mentioned "ethics".  I don't really believe that the "clowns" in my business are unethical.  Hell, the agents that I've had issues with are the more successful ones.  In fact, the most "successful" agent in my town?  I won't do business with her, because she tried to fuck me on a deal.  I won't show her listings, and, if I were to receive an offer from her on one of my listings, I'd caution the seller about her.   Another prominent agent in my town happens to be the mayor.  I find it beyond outrageous that she takes listings on development projects that came across her desk during the approval process.   I voted against her last cycle, and gave money to her opponent. 

That’s fair actually. The shitty ones I know don’t have much of an ethical problem that I can tell. Good point. 
mans yeah- that mayor thing sounds like serious dirty dealing. 

[Upgrayedd 5861]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

Another prominent agent in my town happens to be the mayor.  I find it beyond outrageous that she takes listings on development projects that came across her desk during the approval process.   I voted against her last cycle, and gave money to her opponent. 

Judy?

[troph 25094]

On 3/21/2021 at 10:37 AM, Gil Bang said:

Go ahead, I’d love to hear it.

first, I love our realtor.  We use him constantly and he does great (not just good) work.  we talked about our priorities and philosophy before buying and selling and he holds us to it - both for getting higher prices and not dickering over good offers when we are selling when to do otherwise is against our stated goals.  This might be his greatest attribute helping us stay true to our goals when our emotions get the best of us.  He's low key (I am not and my partner is so-so) so he's a great counter balance.  He doesn't take himself too seriously.  He's a good looking guy but is unassuming and doesn't think these are his houses he's selling.  He's got great boundaries and recognizes the risks we are taking and steps in as a true professional here to help us.  He was hard to find.  We are fiercely loyal to him and happy to pay him for his services, he really is a value-add.

Prior to that we've had a lot of experience with realtors over the years.  I've seen agents lie about conditions, sell out their clients on lowest price, speak badly about their clients, offer to sell only to us because they might get the right to sell it if we buy as opposed to another builder or buyer, refuse to honor binding agreements in conversation that has lead to significant litigation or threat of it. I've seen lying about square footage both directions - either to stay out of trouble with city requirements and/or avoid taxing issues, or inflate them for pricing. I've also seen them lie about what can be done post-closing (city restrictions, etc.).   I'm sure I could think of more but that's all off the top of my head. Some of this is dumb crap some is unethical.  and to the point I responded to, I have no doubt some selling agents are exaggerating the existence and degree of multiple offer situations - which isn't to say multiple offers aren't wide spread in the Austin MSA because they are. 

I'm confident you don't fall in to the category of bad and/or unethical but realtors as a profession don't have the best reputation for a reason.  Thankfully guys like our realtor and you help folks find their way and counter act that.  And the same can be said for lawyers, we have our bad apples too and they give the rest of us a bad name at times.

[Sbbruin 22082]

15 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

Judy?

[troph 25094]

21 hours ago, burntorangebongos said:

I really don't want to sell. I'm in Lakeway backing into a greenbelt. It made me want the home I'm in and I think it will help me sell my house. I don't really want to sell but this may be a great time to cash my chips and walk. My next door neighbor just sold his house. He and his wife saw how things were going and decided to cash out. They priced aggressively and ended up selling 160000 over listing. Fuck me. That means my taxes are going up for sure. Now I'm thinking I need to sell but I don't really want to right now because I don't know where to go.  If I sell, I need to just go ahead and retire. There won't be a reason to go from a low cost house(I paid off the mortgage) into something else in the Austin area where I'd be paying high dollar even with a cash buy.

I guess I'm here where I have to make these decisions and I don't have a plan. I have always wanted to live in a mountain town where I could walk to everything and then be a winter Texan in a condo on SPI as a renter. But I don't know if that is doable anymore. All I can say is that I am pissed Mexico hasn't gotten their shit together so I could have moved into an affordable mountain town there where I could walk to everything.  

So if you were in my boots, mid-50s just trucking along with everything copesetic and able to manage just fine as is....would you cash out your chips even though you like where you live? Even though it means leaving Austin because I'd have no reason to stay and I should go ahead and retire?

I wouldn't sell now.  I'm familiar with lakeway and am kicking myself for selling pre-pandemic to start the build of our new place.  I left (another) $100K on the table after getting an extra $100K then.  The inventory problem is made much worse by the pandemic.  I do think that things will even out in the next few years but I don't think prices will go down.  I think supply and demand imbalances out here will drive prices higher through this selling season at least.  I would expect 2022 to be another similar year. Right now we might be seeing as much as 15% or more growth and that will settled down to sub 10% at some point.  Anything below that would require another crisis or a significant increase in interest rates but if rates rise I think the market cools and slows but I don't see prices going down.  The influx from the coasts continue drive pricing higher but those buyers still see Austin and Lake Travis as a value so there is room for additional price growth.  We currently have our house and 3 other projects going in lake travis and I would say it's as tight or tighter than 78704 which is one of the hottest zip codes in the US.  Lake travis is insane right now, and add a differentiator like greenbelt or golf course, canyon or lake views and you have even more scarcity. 

I think your instincts are right, there are two issues to deal with - one is replacement if you do sell and the other is holding costs while you stay.  taxes are what they are and you just have to manage that but with homestead protection you should be able to realize a faster appreciation than tax costs so you can hold until you can't afford the taxes if you want to.  On the first issue, you either downsize or move further out if you stay local or you move all together.  profits on a homestead are great but they only help if you can take them out of the housing equation or use them to buy bigger/better.  I used mine to improve my view and am happy with that decision, but the next time I sell I will have the same "now what" you have now. 

if you have a retirement plan that doesn't require you living in Austin and allows a downsize then do what the coastal folks are doing (riding the market up there then downsizing to here), ride this sucker up, include the profits in your retirement plan and eject in a few years to a tranquil spot earlier than you anticipated and thank your lucky stars for being in the right place at the right time.

Edited March 22, 2021 by troph

[Gil Bang 26177]

19 hours ago, Upgrayedd said:

Judy?

that's the one

[Horns99 172]

What should a appraisal cost on a refi in Houston on a house that was purchased less than a year ago - 2 story, approx 3500 sq ft ?


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[Horns99 172]

Speaking of Lakeway / Lake Travis - anyone heard any rumors on what’s going on with the Covert Ranch ?


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[Wulaw Horn 19560]

33 minutes ago, Horns99 said:

What should a appraisal cost on a refi in Houston on a house that was purchased less than a year ago - 2 story, approx 3500 sq ft ?


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$$500 ish. Unless you can get an appraisal waiver. 
depends on ltv and house/neighborhood. 

[Hefeweizen 5416]

7 hours ago, Horns99 said:

Speaking of Lakeway / Lake Travis - anyone heard any rumors on what’s going on with the Covert Ranch ?


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It is under contract again, last time was around 2010 or so.  Duke's passing means they are probably done dabbling in real estate.  It is going to be a really nice development if they can get it done - I think the buyer is out of the West Coast.

[troph 25094]

This is insane...

 

 

[Horns99 172]

It is under contract again, last time was around 2010 or so.  Duke's passing means they are probably done dabbling in real estate.  It is going to be a really nice development if they can get it done - I think the buyer is out of the West Coast.

Yeah, last time it was a west coast group that bought it. They had some really nice plans for it.


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[Wulaw Horn 19560]

Nationwide inventory is down 40% YOY from last year.  Supply is slightly under 2 months. Never seen anything like that before.  Austin numbers are even worse, obviously, but it's clearly a nationwide thing- brought on in some extent by COVID I'm sure. Also, generationally I'd be that has a play too. My generation (holla fellow Xers) just wasn't big enough to move the needle when we started coming of age, making money, etc.   Didn't move the market like Millenials and older Zoomers do in such larger numbers.  So, yeah, that's my theories.  

[swraith 348]

Need more boomers to sell their houses and move to old folks homes? Free up some inventory.

[Wulaw Horn 19560]

7 minutes ago, swraith said:

Need more boomers to sell their houses and move to old folks homes? Free up some inventory.

Or just die.

My parents are moving in with me.  That's plus 1 in inventory on the houston market.

[swraith 348]

If my parents moved in with us....either they or my family would not survive long.  Incompatible.

[victory88 5755]

My good friend sold his house last year and was shocked how quickly it sold and that he got above asking from what I remember correctly.  Since they can work remotely, they decided to try a new town in the east coast.  They didn't like it and moved back to their old city and now can't find a home.  They are offering 30k above asking and people are beating their offers with cash payments.  Poor guy has a toddler and preggo wife and I know this has been quite stressful.  I'm so happy I bought a last year before this frenzy.