All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[TKthunder2 4997]

On 4/26/2021 at 9:46 PM, gmr548 said:

This thread is so goddamn depressing to read if you're under 30.

Get them started with condos/townhouses if they want to be close to the city or in a suburb starter home they don’t want or need to be.  Convinced my cousin to buy a condo when he turned 24 instead of renting and had a good/stable job and wasn’t wanting to job hop or move to another city/state so it made sense for him (I know it doesn’t for everyone). He got a 2/2 and had a roommate basically pay for the majority of his mortgage payment.  But he just sold his place and it increased by nearly 50% in about 6 years and now he just got married and was able to come up with his 10% down on a almost $400k “starter” home in South Austin with no help from his new wife (though father in law is paying for a bathroom remodel).  It’s hard but not impossible.

[gmr548 16592]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

 

Have had multiple acquaintances having their rental sold out from under them over the last few weeks in ATX. Abrupt moves to other cities cause there are limited options locally.  Really fucking sucks, but can't really argue with the math.  If I was sitting on a rental I'd be looking to cash out. 

As in your acquaintances were renters, the owner cashed out on the house, and they had to leave town because they couldn't find suitable options?

Goddamn that sucks, but it speaks to what kind of ridiculous money is being thrown around right now.

[Anastasis 23481]

16 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

As in your acquaintances were renters, the owner cashed out on the house, and they had to leave town because they couldn't find suitable options?

Goddamn that sucks, but it speaks to what kind of ridiculous money is being thrown around right now.

Yeah. I am not all up in their financials, but that is as I understand it among the situations playing out right now.  From a math perspective it makes complete sense. If you own a rental property, staring down the barrel of substantial property tax increases, and all time high valuation, why not cash out. Shit, I'd love to walk from my place and pocket the equity.  Problem is without bought and paid for land in your back pocket, you are just chasing. And with kids in public schools we are pretty boxed in on options.  

[gmr548 16592]

4 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

Get them started with condos/townhouses if they want to be close to the city or in a suburb starter home they don’t want or need to be.  Convinced my cousin to buy a condo when he turned 24 instead of renting and had a good/stable job and wasn’t wanting to job hop or move to another city/state so it made sense for him (I know it doesn’t for everyone). He got a 2/2 and had a roommate basically pay for the majority of his mortgage payment.  But he just sold his place and it increased by nearly 50% in about 6 years and now he just got married and was able to come up with his 10% down on a almost $400k “starter” home in South Austin with no help from his new wife (though father in law is paying for a bathroom remodel).  It’s hard but not impossible.

Yeah, if and when the time comes, a townhome is probably the way on the ladder and we'll see what happens from there. I'm fortunate in that I'm far enough to the right side of the bell curve for income at 29 that I can at least think about buying by, say, 35. A large chunk of my generation will never be able to own a home, at least not within 30 miles of the increasingly select list of major cities where economic opportunity is concentrating. Part of it is in fact self-inflicted. Could go buy a house out by the Grand Parkway now if I wanted to. But then I'd live out by the Grand Parkway.

[tokamak 6433]

10 hours ago, gmr548 said:

I like it overall but the prices are pretty insane. We got a good price on a rental house but probably could not afford to buy in the neighborhood. The bottom of the barrel - older and in need of significant investment - is probably all we could afford, and that's if we got something at list price. Seems like that's fantasy.

The price point doesn't seem too different from the Heights at this point. If you're looking for proximity to the urban core, I don't see why you'd pick GO/OF over the Heights. Conversely, if you're attracted to the extra space, suburban feel, etc. I don't know why you wouldn't go get the same house in Spring Branch or Katy for significantly less money and with better schools. Seems to me like there's some paying for the GO/OF name at this point.

I don't mean to shit on it too much though, nice neighborhood. Some of the original houses have been really nicely updated and many have been well maintained in general.

I'm in multifamily, not single family, so I'd ultimately defer to those more in tune with the market, but I think the general impression is Texas isn't going to slow down any time in the short to medium term future. People aren't about to stop moving here. 

Check out the southwest side of town - Westbury, Willow Meadows, even the slums of Meyerland. That's my 'hood so I'm biased but I think we're essentially GOOF 15 years ago. A little further from the fun of the Heights, but great for anyone that works near the Galleria, TMC, or downtown. The shitshows currently happening at 610/59 and 288/610 will really help us get around town once they finish up, too. Only problem is we flood like a motherfucker, so do your research and watch your cornhole.

Now someone just needs to build a brewery down here, damn it. Once we get some over-hopped IPAs, string lights, and picnic tables, it's off to the races.

[CooterBrown 18022]

Yeah. I am not all up in their financials, but that is as I understand it among the situations playing out right now.  From a math perspective it makes complete sense. If you own a rental property, staring down the barrel of substantial property tax increases, and all time high valuation, why not cash out. Shit, I'd love to walk from my place and pocket the equity.  Problem is without bought and paid for land in your back pocket, you are just chasing. And with kids in public schools we are pretty boxed in on options.  

Doing some quick math, if your cash flow is $500/mo and you make a profit of $100K, that’s 16 years of rental income. I don’t think I’d pass that up.

[Storm the Field 5300]

11 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

The price point doesn't seem too different from the Heights at this point. If you're looking for proximity to the urban core, I don't see why you'd pick GO/OF over the Heights.

For us it was because my wife's office was downtown and mine off Washington. We wanted to be close to the urban core but have a big enough lot to build a good size house on and have plenty of yard left over for a backyard kitchen, pool, and grass for the dogs. Luckily we found a teardown on a huge lot back in 2018 before the market went crazy. Don't think there's any way we could pull it off now. Regardless, trying to do the same thing in the Heights would have been impossible. 

11 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Conversely, if you're attracted to the extra space, suburban feel, etc. I don't know why you wouldn't go get the same house in Spring Branch or Katy for significantly less money and with better schools.

If I lived in Katy, my 10 minute trip to the office would take 45 minutes minimum. And I'd live in fucking Katy. I like being able to walk to the Wakefield breweries, eating at places in the Heights, taking cheap Ubers to Astros games...etc.

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

10 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah, if and when the time comes, a townhome is probably the way on the ladder and we'll see what happens from there. I'm fortunate in that I'm far enough to the right side of the bell curve for income at 29 that I can at least think about buying by, say, 35. A large chunk of my generation will never be able to own a home, at least not within 30 miles of the increasingly select list of major cities where economic opportunity is concentrating. Part of it is in fact self-inflicted. Could go buy a house out by the Grand Parkway now if I wanted to. But then I'd live out by the Grand Parkway.

So, I pretty much tell everyone that the best day to buy a house is yesterday and the next best day to buy a house is today (provided your have stability in where you are going to live and your job situation of course) and the numbers back that up. Why 6 years on the plan if the income is solid?  
once upon a time I was an advocate of 20% down, but pmi is merely a tax to move up and do today what might otherwise take years of savings. Are you 6 years away from being able to save a 3% down payment for a first time buyer conventional loan?  Or is the income/credit not high enough to qualify for a loan?  
if it’s about downpayment I’d seriously suggest finding 3% and making it work and paying the pmi. Otherwise you will just be chasing rising valuations. I can’t imagine the entry point, 6 years from now, anywhere in urban Texas being any better. 

[gmr548 16592]

Check out the southwest side of town - Westbury, Willow Meadows, even the slums of Meyerland. That's my 'hood so I'm biased but I think we're essentially GOOF 15 years ago. A little further from the fun of the Heights, but great for anyone that works near the Galleria, TMC, or downtown. The shitshows currently happening at 610/59 and 288/610 will really help us get around town once they finish up, too. Only problem is we flood like a motherfucker, so do your research and watch your cornhole.
Now someone just needs to build a brewery down here, damn it. Once we get some over-hopped IPAs, string lights, and picnic tables, it's off to the races.

Yeah I have a buddy that lives over there and likes it well enough. I admit the flooding does a lot to scare us off. That’s not going to get any better. But you could say that about a lot of Houston. Lol at the string lights. Those really are the bat signal for millennials with disposable income.

If I lived in Katy, my 10 minute trip to the office would take 45 minutes minimum. And I'd live in fucking Katy. I like being able to walk to the Wakefield breweries, eating at places in the Heights, taking cheap Ubers to Astros games...etc.

Don’t know why it won’t quote the whole post but that makes sense for a few years back. I should’ve made more clear that I was talking about the current price point for the area. Dozens of homes at $900k plus is silly.

So, I pretty much tell everyone that the best day to buy a house is yesterday and the next best day to buy a house is today (provided your have stability in where you are going to live and your job situation of course) and the numbers back that up. Why 6 years on the plan if the income is solid?  
once upon a time I was an advocate of 20% down, but pmi is merely a tax to move up and do today what might otherwise take years of savings. Are you 6 years away from being able to save a 3% down payment for a first time buyer conventional loan?  Or is the income/credit not high enough to qualify for a loan?  
if it’s about downpayment I’d seriously suggest finding 3% and making it work and paying the pmi. Otherwise you will just be chasing rising valuations. I can’t imagine the entry point, 6 years from now, anywhere in urban Texas being any better. 

Agreed from a purely financial standpoint. Definitely not trying to save 20 percent. That’s a relic of a bygone era and just not realistic for someone trying to buy their first home without a gift from parents or something like that.

We have a few non financial reasons for holding off but I do want to pad the liquid savings more - even three percent would basically empty it. Only made enough to really pad that in the past couple years, need to shore it up more.

[UTPhil2006 3809]

13 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I assume your acquaintances know that the lease can’t be terminated early on them. 

This.  Maybe a buyout was involved.

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Yeah I have a buddy that lives over there and likes it well enough. I admit the flooding does a lot to scare us off. That’s not going to get any better. But you could say that about a lot of Houston. Lol at the string lights. Those really are the bat signal for millennials with disposable income.


Don’t know why it won’t quote the whole post but that makes sense for a few years back. I should’ve made more clear that I was talking about the current price point for the area. Dozens of homes at $900k plus is silly.

Agreed from a purely financial standpoint. Definitely not trying to save 20 percent. That’s a relic of a bygone era and just not realistic for someone trying to buy their first home without a gift from parents or something like that.

We have a few non financial reasons for holding off but I do want to pad the liquid savings more - even three percent would basically empty it. Only made enough to really pad that in the past couple years, need to shore it up more.

And if

you are buying over 575 then 3% isn’t applicable, obviously. But that’s not what I think of as First time buyer at 30, but maybe I have to recalibrate. 
Never buy a home until your job and living status makes sense as a financial play, but don’t wait one day longer to do it than that imo. Good luck. 

[Gil Bang 25988]

Wulaw gives good advise, IMHO

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

3 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Wulaw gives good advise, IMHO

Thanks buddy. Mine is more or less a commodity business but there is still value in dealing with someone who knows shit over a headphone jockey in Detroit I think. Sometimes anyway. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

If you’re not surly 1%, young people definitely need to use the condo/townhouse ladder route to build equity instead of burning money renting. My first house was a townhouse. Made money on it. 

Edited April 28, 2021 by Neonmoon

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

Just now, Neonmoon said:

If you’re not surly 1%, young people definitely need to use the condo/townhouse ladder route to build equity instead of burning money renting. I we

Only thing about that is many condo/townhome fees are absurdly ridiculous. I think this will keep a possible cap on appreciation moving forward and can mess with dti in a way a SFR won’t. But yes- better than renting and it’s so important to plant your flag in the market so that appreciation doesn’t leave you behind. 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

31 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you’re not surly 1%, young people definitely need to use the condo/townhouse ladder route to build equity instead of burning money renting. My first house was a townhouse. Made money on it. 

They’re building them like hotcakes inside the loop in Houston as well 

[jimmyjazz 46049]

Got our first heartfelt "we really want to buy in your neighborhood" letter today.

The thing is, the names checked out as living where they said they do (via TCAD), and the last name of the wife is the same as that of a beloved Texas politician . . . so I dug around and yep, it's his daughter.  Beyond that, the realtor they asked us to call (their agent) is well-known in Austin.

So, I don't think it's a scam.  It does seem like they are trying to pull an end-around on the market by finding a house that's not for sale, which I understand completely.

That said, taking all competition out of the process seems counter-productive.  I guess I can get a couple of market analyses done to get a better feel for the value of our house, but selling (a) without a possible bidding war and (b) still having to pay their realtor and an attorney on our side seems foolish.

And then there's the whole part about where we would live, which would still have to be in Austin.  We wouldn't buy another house, we only really need to be here one more year.  The obvious risk is if the market cools in that year, but honestly, I feel like it's still shooting up for the next several months, so that risk should be relatively mild.

Am I reading this correctly?

[Gil Bang 25988]

Yes you are.  You would be crazy to not let the market set the value of your home.   And I'd bet that she send several of these letters out.  

[CooterBrown 18022]

I get at least two unsolicited offers a day in the mail. Several have been like a xmas card with a professional photo of the family on the front with a message on the back with that same scenario of trying to find a house before it hits the market. Many are from developers disguised as fake handwritten letters on yellow lined paper and typed in a handwriting font. That must’ve been taught in a real estate seminar at some point.

[jimmyjazz 46049]

In this case, I don't think a well-known realtor would falsely represent a buyer who is masquerading the daughter of a super popular Texas politician.  I mean, it would all come clean at closing.

That said, I think my gut was right.  I'll pass on contacting them.

[Anastasis 23481]

Give them a stupid number and see if they bite. 

[royiv 9334]

Everything is for sale at the right price.

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Give them a stupid number and see if they bite. 

This. Neighbor of mine just did this and got double what he would have listed it for.

[UTPhil2006 3809]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Give them a stupid number and see if they bite. 

Bingo 

[bluto 4935]

I know there’s a lot of folks on here that make their living by transactions/ownership so renting isn’t exactly helping their bottom line. But the whole “throwing money away by renting” is a load of shit for a lot of folks in high property tax states/areas. I can rent for far less than what my interest, taxes, insurance, and PMI would be even on a reasonable starter place and that would be sacrificing significantly on location. that’s also not including maintenance, upkeep, and transaction costs on both ends.

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

19 minutes ago, bluto said:

I know there’s a lot of folks on here that make their living by transactions/ownership so renting isn’t exactly helping their bottom line. But the whole “throwing money away by renting” is a load of shit for a lot of folks in high property tax states/areas. I can rent for far less than what my interest, taxes, insurance, and PMI would be even on a reasonable starter place and that would be sacrificing significantly on location. that’s also not including maintenance, upkeep, and transaction costs on both ends.

All of that is spot on true for the short term. But, and this is a huge but for most people, you miss out on the appreciation of an asset thats a huge add to your net worth, and you don’t ever rid yourself of housing expenses in your elderly years the way you do by owning a house

if you want to be a renter because it’s cheaper in many of those places (by the month) than home ownership thats awesome, provided you are wisely investing that differential into good vehicles that will grow your net worth the way homeownership will. Most people aren’t capable of that and owning a home is the best forced savings/investment plan they can possibly have. 
tl/dr- son, they can’t hardly starve you out once you own your house outright (my FIL) 

[LebongJames 1813]

24 minutes ago, bluto said:

I know there’s a lot of folks on here that make their living by transactions/ownership so renting isn’t exactly helping their bottom line. But the whole “throwing money away by renting” is a load of shit for a lot of folks in high property tax states/areas. I can rent for far less than what my interest, taxes, insurance, and PMI would be even on a reasonable starter place and that would be sacrificing significantly on location. that’s also not including maintenance, upkeep, and transaction costs on both ends.

I thought this way and didn’t buy in Austin for years because I wasn’t ready to move out Barton Hills where we had a great rental that was pretty much rent controlled.

 

Finally built a house off of Wm Cannon in 2017 sold in last year at the beginning of the pandemic and made $120k after everything. Houses in that hood are now selling for an additional $100k and the house we bought in Westlake is worth $200k more than we paid for it last year.  If we would have never bought the first house we never would have been able to buy the house we are in now. I was 32 and my wife was 30 when we bought the house of Wm Cannon.

[gmr548 16592]

22 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

tl/dr- son, they can’t hardly starve you out once you own your house outright (my FIL) 

- TCAD

[bluto 4935]

All of that is spot on true for the short term. But, and this is a huge but for most people, you miss out on the appreciation of an asset thats a huge add to your net worth, and you don’t ever rid yourself of housing expenses in your elderly years the way you do by owning a house
if you want to be a renter because it’s cheaper in many of those places (by the month) than home ownership thats awesome, provided you are wisely investing that differential into good vehicles that will grow your net worth the way homeownership will. Most people aren’t capable of that and owning a home is the best forced savings/investment plan they can possibly have. 
tl/dr- son, they can’t hardly starve you out once you own your house outright (my FIL) 

I get the appreciation and old age payoff factors, the cap gains avoidance is massive as well.

The flip side of it is so very few ppl stay in their homes long enough to ever make a dent in the principal via monthly payment with the front loaded interest on amortization, much less long enough to pay it off. So then you are essentially just banking on rapid appreciation to make the numbers pencil out. And if there is rapid appreciation you’re stuck having to buy back into the belly of the beast like present day.

It’s not a one size fits all is my main point which you’ve acknowledged. I just hate the pressure of it all, it grinds my gears like the bullsh of everybody feeling pressure to go to college.

Full disclosure, I bought in a very solid hood of Fort Worth well within my financial means. Non principal monthly payment was equal to what I could have rented for. Went to sell due to job change 30 mos later and ‘made’ 5k (dif between buy and sell price). After transaction costs I lost my ass really... not even mentioning the maint, time, inflexibility, heartburn.

[jimmyjazz 46049]

Home ownership is the biggest driver of wealth for the average American.  It's a snapshot, but for instance, between 2013 and 2016, the net worth of homeowners increased 15%.  The net worth of renters dropped 5.2%.  Average net worth of a home-owning family was $231,400, whereas it was $5,200 for a renting family.

Own vs. rent

 

 

[tokamak 6433]

7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Home ownership is the biggest driver of wealth for the average American.  It's a snapshot, but for instance, between 2013 and 2016, the net worth of homeowners increased 15%.  The net worth of renters dropped 5.2%.  Average net worth of a home-owning family was $231,400, whereas it was $5,200 for a renting family.

Own vs. rent

 

 

I wonder how much of that is correlation vs. causation.

Renting gets a bad rap on the internet, and for most people it probably does make more sense to buy, but there's definitely some advantages to a living situation where it ain't your fucking problem if the house needs a new roof or the city decides to build a superhighway through the middle of your neighborhood.

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

41 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I wonder how much of that is correlation vs. causation.

Renting gets a bad rap on the internet, and for most people it probably does make more sense to buy, but there's definitely some advantages to a living situation where it ain't your fucking problem if the house needs a new roof or the city decides to build a superhighway through the middle of your neighborhood.

Most of it is probably causation with appreciation being the driving factor. My net worth has gone up like 150k since I bought my home in 12/19. My equity position on the home is up 125k. That’s literally 80+ percent of my increase in net worth?  

[DonkeyCigars 143]

Quote

Full disclosure, I bought in a very solid hood of Fort Worth well within my financial means. Non principal monthly payment was equal to what I could have rented for. Went to sell due to job change 30 mos later and ‘made’ 5k (dif between buy and sell price). After transaction costs I lost my ass really... not even mentioning the maint, time, inflexibility, heartburn.

How does this even happen? This blows my mind. Either you bought at too high a premium or the growth rate/appreciation is horrible in Fort Worth, or your realtor sucked or something else. There has to be a story here.

[Wulaw Horn 19146]

10 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

How does this even happen? This blows my mind. Either you bought at too high a premium or the growth rate/appreciation is horrible in Fort Worth, or your realtor sucked or something else. There has to be a story here.

Before the last year or two in places in this state outside of Dallas or Fort Worth this was pretty standard. Like 1-3% appreciation. So, if you are on the lower end of that and in your house for less than 5 years you could see 6 or 7% appreciation and 8 or 9% years n closing costs between the realtor, title company and maybe some seller contributions. Incredibly common scenario for almost everyone I knew with a home in houston suburbs for most of the 21st century. Doesn’t surprise me Fort Worth is similar. 

[bluto 4935]

Full disclosure, I bought in a very solid hood of Fort Worth well within my financial means. Non principal monthly payment was equal to what I could have rented for. Went to sell due to job change 30 mos later and ‘made’ 5k (dif between buy and sell price). After transaction costs I lost my ass really... not even mentioning the maint, time, inflexibility, heartburn.

How does this even happen? This blows my mind. Either you bought at too high a premium or the growth rate/appreciation is horrible in Fort Worth, or your realtor sucked or something else. There has to be a story here.

I bought in line with market trends at a going rate, wasn’t a reach by any stretch, but poor timing on it. Just zero appreciation, natural or forced. Even a year+ after sale, I doubt it would get any more as of today, keeping an eye on the old hood. Sold $240/ft and that would put it in very high end of listings currently.

For the record, I’m a real estate professional and have been in the game in various sides for 10+ years.

[StassneyHorn 6624]

Which real estate website estimates are the most trustworthy? If that’s even a thing. I’ve seen as high as 255k on Zillow and Trulia and as low as 195k on realtor.com and 215k on Redfin.

 

 

[LCHorn 2629]

26 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Which real estate website estimates are the most trustworthy? If that’s even a thing. I’ve seen as high as 255k on Zillow and Trulia and as low as 195k on realtor.com and 215k on Redfin.

 

 

They are pretty much all hot garbage. Ask a realtor for a comparative market analysis.

[Pato del Muerto 52555]

How do I use the internets to find some comparable sales for a home?  Does realtor.com have that feature?

also I guess is there any value in month old or older sales data?

Edited May 1, 2021 by Pato del Muerto

[Izhmash 563]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

They are pretty much all hot garbage. Ask a realtor for a comparative market analysis.

Fuck that. Most of the realtors I've encountered are fucking morons. I've learned to trust a select few, but have met WAY TOO MANY that simply pull comps - and then try to sell you on some rudimentary logic. Unworthy simpletons not willing to do any real work to come up with a compelling valuation / strategy. You'd be better off pulling "listed vs sold" prices off Redfin, model the rate of change over the past 6 months and build your own spreadsheet / projections. EDIT: It's possible I've just had some bad luck with folks, or am a bit too analytical and expect the same.

We had a neighbor that genuinely thought her home was only worth about $415K a month ago. Old Milwood area and no updates to the home (it's mostly original early 80s). Her agent (also an investor / broker) recommended she spend over $15K to upgrade a few things in the house to try and get an extra $30K. Sounds logic, if the world worked that way anymore. They have a friend who has a friend that wants to move to Austin from Nashville, asked for pictures. Family offered $560K, with expectation to completely remodel the home (~$125K worth) before they move in. My point is that a lot of realtors just aren't able to mentally shift their perspective based on what's happening today, and owners aren't either.

As was said above, I would have let the market dictate the value. I'm still waiting for someone to list their home for $1, Ebay style.

Also, WTF. I'm starting to get offended that I'm not receiving any letters in the mail about my house.

Edited May 1, 2021 by Izhmash

[CooterBrown 18022]

Anyone wasting time doing cosmetic work on a house in Austin to prep for sale is a moron. There’s zero point and it won’t affect the sales price at all.

Recently I saw one complete remodel on Shoal Creek get gutted and remodeled again a month later when it was sold. Buyers don’t give a shit about your updates in this market.

[LCHorn 2629]

2 hours ago, Izhmash said:

Fuck that. Most of the realtors I've encountered are fucking morons. I've learned to trust a select few, but have met WAY TOO MANY that simply pull comps - and then try to sell you on some rudimentary logic. Unworthy simpletons not willing to do any real work to come up with a compelling valuation / strategy. You'd be better off pulling "listed vs sold" prices off Redfin, model the rate of change over the past 6 months and build your own spreadsheet / projections. EDIT: It's possible I've just had some bad luck with folks, or am a bit too analytical and expect the same.

We had a neighbor that genuinely thought her home was only worth about $415K a month ago. Old Milwood area and no updates to the home (it's mostly original early 80s). Her agent (also an investor / broker) recommended she spend over $15K to upgrade a few things in the house to try and get an extra $30K. Sounds logic, if the world worked that way anymore. They have a friend who has a friend that wants to move to Austin from Nashville, asked for pictures. Family offered $560K, with expectation to completely remodel the home (~$125K worth) before they move in. My point is that a lot of realtors just aren't able to mentally shift their perspective based on what's happening today, and owners aren't either.

As was said above, I would have let the market dictate the value. I'm still waiting for someone to list their home for $1, Ebay style.

Also, WTF. I'm starting to get offended that I'm not receiving any letters in the mail about my house.

If someone wanted to go that much trouble, friend, they wouldn’t be asking for a website that promises an easy answer 🙂

The reality is that there’s not an approach without flaws when trying to divine what someone might be willing to pay in this market.  Even an appraiser is beholden to comps listed on MLS that frequently don’t have their above list sales price updated until too long after the sale.  

[Armybrat 40866]

The Austin housing market summarized in less than a minute.

https://www.facebook.com/1178345537/posts/10222393108914732/?d=n

[jimmyjazz 46049]

The Austin housing market, while seemingly nuts right now, is (as always) a function of supply and demand.  Believe it or not, Austin real estate prices are not yet "expensive", depending on how one defines the term.  

I'm not going to die trying to defend Zillow's "Home Value Index", but as a means of comparison it might hold water.  Right now it shows:

Austin:  $498K

San Jose:  $1.16M

Boston:  $668K

Raleigh:  $328K

Denver: $512K

Seattle:  $825K

Portland:  $520K

Choose your own cities, I was just trying to identify some tech hot spots.  The point is, a lot of the people moving here probably think Austin is still a relative bargain.

 

 

[bluto 4935]

The Austin housing market, while seemingly nuts right now, is (as always) a function of supply and demand.  Believe it or not, Austin real estate prices are not yet "expensive", depending on how one defines the term.  
I'm not going to die trying to defend Zillow's "Home Value Index", but as a means of comparison it might hold water.  Right now it shows:
Austin:  $498K
San Jose:  $1.16M
Boston:  $668K
Raleigh:  $328K
Denver: $512K
Seattle:  $825K
Portland:  $520K
Choose your own cities, I was just trying to identify some tech hot spots.  The point is, a lot of the people moving here probably think Austin is still a relative bargain.
 
 

If just cash transactions then I don’t necessarily disagree, but if actually working the numbers on monthly mortgages our prop taxes deduct a pretty solid chunk from the home values/affordability. But seems like cash is name of the game these days

[jimmyjazz 46049]

18 minutes ago, bluto said:

If just cash transactions then I don’t necessarily disagree, but if actually working the numbers on monthly mortgages our prop taxes deduct a pretty solid chunk from the home values/affordability. But seems like cash is name of the game these days

Do we get to factor in the lack of state income tax?

[Hornbeliever 712]

On 4/29/2021 at 12:13 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Home ownership is the biggest driver of wealth for the average American.  It's a snapshot, but for instance, between 2013 and 2016, the net worth of homeowners increased 15%.  The net worth of renters dropped 5.2%.  Average net worth of a home-owning family was $231,400, whereas it was $5,200 for a renting family.

Own vs. rent

 

 

Completely agree with premise but inheritance is by far biggest driver of wealth for average American.  HOme ownership is certainly key factor though so buy buy buy.

[Pato del Muerto 52555]

21 minutes ago, Hornbeliever said:

Completely agree with premise but inheritance is by far biggest driver of wealth for average American.  HOme ownership is certainly key factor though so buy buy buy.

I bet home ownership/equity is the largest percentage of inheritance for most families. 

[Esque 135]

What is difficult right now is there isn't a clear market.  It seems agents can't give good guidance to prospective buyers given the amount of  competition.

As a random data point, we looked at this home over the weekend and chased it a bit.  But it is going for over $410,000, all cash, with everything breaking the Seller's way, i.e. Buyer pays for title, 10-day close, sale-leaseback, etc.  Pretty crazy.

May just sit out a year.  This isn't sustainable and the home builders will pick up the demand, even if it takes a year or so.

[CHIEF 5094]

21 hours ago, Izhmash said:

Fuck that. Most of the realtors I've encountered are fucking morons. I've learned to trust a select few, but have met WAY TOO MANY that simply pull comps - and then try to sell you on some rudimentary logic. Unworthy simpletons not willing to do any real work to come up with a compelling valuation / strategy. You'd be better off pulling "listed vs sold" prices off Redfin, model the rate of change over the past 6 months and build your own spreadsheet / projections. EDIT: It's possible I've just had some bad luck with folks, or am a bit too analytical and expect the same.

We had a neighbor that genuinely thought her home was only worth about $415K a month ago. Old Milwood area and no updates to the home (it's mostly original early 80s). Her agent (also an investor / broker) recommended she spend over $15K to upgrade a few things in the house to try and get an extra $30K. Sounds logic, if the world worked that way anymore. They have a friend who has a friend that wants to move to Austin from Nashville, asked for pictures. Family offered $560K, with expectation to completely remodel the home (~$125K worth) before they move in. My point is that a lot of realtors just aren't able to mentally shift their perspective based on what's happening today, and owners aren't either.

As was said above, I would have let the market dictate the value. I'm still waiting for someone to list their home for $1, Ebay style.

Also, WTF. I'm starting to get offended that I'm not receiving any letters in the mail about my house.

You're an idiot if you use Redfin or Zillow. I have people call me all the time wanting to look at houses that have been sold six months ago that are still listed on those sites with pre-housing boom prices. I use comps, because I busted my ass to set the price on those comps. They were set using cash buyers, there were no appraisals. They sold at what people were willing to pay. So as a "moron" realtors all I'm really doing is raising the value of your home while you sit around with your thumb up your ass.

CHIEF

[LebongJames 1813]

11 hours ago, Esque said:

What is difficult right now is there isn't a clear market.  It seems agents can't give good guidance to prospective buyers given the amount of  competition.

As a random data point, we looked at this home over the weekend and chased it a bit.  But it is going for over $410,000, all cash, with everything breaking the Seller's way, i.e. Buyer pays for title, 10-day close, sale-leaseback, etc.  Pretty crazy.

May just sit out a year.  This isn't sustainable and the home builders will pick up the demand, even if it takes a year or so.

Builders don’t have land or materials. I deal with builders on a daily basis. There are some who are actually slowing down not speeding up. Builders may catch up but it won’t be within a year. Also I don’t think sitting out helps anything. Prices aren’t going down.