All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Armybrat 40940]

16 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

The Austin housing market, while seemingly nuts right now, is (as always) a function of supply and demand.  Believe it or not, Austin real estate prices are not yet "expensive", depending on how one defines the term.  

I'm not going to die trying to defend Zillow's "Home Value Index", but as a means of comparison it might hold water.  Right now it shows:

Austin:  $498K

San Jose:  $1.16M

Boston:  $668K

Raleigh:  $328K

Denver: $512K

Seattle:  $825K

Portland:  $520K

Choose your own cities, I was just trying to identify some tech hot spots.  The point is, a lot of the people moving here probably think Austin is still a relative bargain.

 

 

But we are told that most of the newcomers are moving here from other parts of Texas.

[jimmyjazz 46301]

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

But we are told that most of the newcomers are moving here from other parts of Texas.

It's roughly 50/50 between Texas and all other states.

[Armybrat 40940]

That’s the most detailed source I’ve seen yet.

I wonder what the % is of California cash buyers vs the Texas migrants, and what % of those moving from other parts of the state are natives.

[LebongJames 1827]

The problem is that is from 2018. The last year has accelerated the California migration even more.

[Pato del Muerto 52640]

38 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

You're an idiot if you use Redfin or Zillow. I have people call me all the time wanting to look at houses that have been sold six months ago that are still listed on those sites with pre-housing boom prices. I use comps, because I busted my ass to set the price on those comps. They were set using cash buyers, there were no appraisals. They sold at what people were willing to pay. So as a "moron" realtors all I'm really doing is raising the value of your home while you sit around with your thumb up your ass.

CHIEF

I looked a home up using realtor.com and it gave me a valuation suspiciously low, and a forecast of a 2% depreciation over the next 12 months. 

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

40 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I looked a home up using realtor.com and it gave me a valuation suspiciously low, and a forecast of a 2% depreciation over the next 12 months. 

I saw that on a house I was looking at and cracked the hell up. Sure thing Redfin. Sure thing. 

[Izhmash 563]

1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

You're an idiot if you use Redfin or Zillow. I have people call me all the time wanting to look at houses that have been sold six months ago that are still listed on those sites with pre-housing boom prices. I use comps, because I busted my ass to set the price on those comps. They were set using cash buyers, there were no appraisals. They sold at what people were willing to pay. So as a "moron" realtors all I'm really doing is raising the value of your home while you sit around with your thumb up your ass.

CHIEF

Hey man - first and foremost, I didn't mean to target anyone or disrespect your line of work. I have really appreciated reading your perspectives on the forums, and I didn't mean to come off as ungrateful. That said, I stand by my comments based on my personal experiences...which is to say that I've met more realtors which didn't really seem to be putting the pieces together, while a select few shine brightly above the rest. Perhaps I stated it too strongly.

I'm 100% on board with letting the market play out. This is the way. I just wish more realtors would simply say that, instead of "we should list your house at x because every house in your neighborhood (in the past 12 months) has sold for y / sqft". I am admittedly simplifying that a tad (a lot), but it feels like I've heard that story more often than not...and not just from the folks we have worked with. I'd love to hear how you go about valuations, tracking the rate of change, or if you just simply find a strong baseline and let the market speak. Sounds like you put in some significant elbow grease into the numbers and are confident that it impacts the outcome.

Maybe I expect too much from a realtor. Maybe I've had shit luck finding good ones and need to evaluate my sources. We've actually enjoyed keeping up with Redfin. They have pretty recent updates once contracts close...not sure how they get the data so quick, but they seem to be ahead of the MLS. We have fact-checked about 10-12 local homes in our neighborhood, and they have been dead on! That doesn't mean all of them are, but it gives me some confidence in their data. If you have other recommendations for sources of data, please share for the idiots.

[Esque 135]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

Builders don’t have land or materials. I deal with builders on a daily basis. There are some who are actually slowing down not speeding up. Builders may catch up but it won’t be within a year. Also I don’t think sitting out helps anything. Prices aren’t going down.

Maybe I am wrong, but time will tell.  I just think the bidding frenzy that is going on right now is unsustainable - unless I am massively underestimating the migration to Texas.  I also think part of the issue is transfer payments, stimulus, foreclosure moratorium, etc.  A lot of that should play out in the next 12 months.

Also, I am a land developer in Texas.  The home builders are gearing up and are taking on more risks in that they are starting to make large land purchases and land banking to build lot pipelines.  The other thing we're seeing is the proposed tax legislation is a concern for many high net worth individuals with land holdings, in that they are aggressively looking to realize their land and 1031 into income producing assets for estate planning purposes.  This should further unlock land opportunities and help build a pipeline.  You're right in that it will take longer than 12 months, but it will come.

[CHIEF 5095]

20 minutes ago, Izhmash said:

Hey man - first and foremost, I didn't mean to target anyone or disrespect your line of work. I have really appreciated reading your perspectives on the forums, and I didn't mean to come off as ungrateful. That said, I stand by my comments based on my personal experiences...which is to say that I've met more realtors which didn't really seem to be putting the pieces together, while a select few shine brightly above the rest. Perhaps I stated it too strongly.

I'm 100% on board with letting the market play out. This is the way. I just wish more realtors would simply say that, instead of "we should list your house at x because every house in your neighborhood (in the past 12 months) has sold for y / sqft". I am admittedly simplifying that a tad (a lot), but it feels like I've heard that story more often than not...and not just from the folks we have worked with. I'd love to hear how you go about valuations, tracking the rate of change, or if you just simply find a strong baseline and let the market speak. Sounds like you put in some significant elbow grease into the numbers and are confident that it impacts the outcome.

Maybe I expect too much from a realtor. Maybe I've had shit luck finding good ones and need to evaluate my sources. We've actually enjoyed keeping up with Redfin. They have pretty recent updates once contracts close...not sure how they get the data so quick, but they seem to be ahead of the MLS. We have fact-checked about 10-12 local homes in our neighborhood, and they have been dead on! That doesn't mean all of them are, but it gives me some confidence in their data. If you have other recommendations for sources of data, please share for the idiots.

In this market, I just know what a cash buyer would be willing to pay. My listings are generally on the market a little longer, maybe 10-14 days before getting an offer. I have only had to do a "highest and best" offer once, which I hate, because you loose two or three potential buyers that don't want to get into a bidding war. I price listings usually about $25-30k above what the seller thinks they can get. But if they trust me they end up with a full price offer. I had a couple that looked at comps on the public MLS sites and wanted to put their house on the market at $389,900. I told them it would bring $425k, they reluctantly agreed to the $425k, I brought them a full price offer within the week.

I have five or ten of the highest sales per square foot in our whole subdivision that I specialize in. None of those sales would have met a mortgage appraisal. We don't accept an offer without an Appraisal Waiver addendum. We let the buyer know that if they plan to finance, they have to come up with the difference between the appraisal and their offer, or they loose their earnest money. The market price is moving so quickly, that appraisers have not been able to keep up with the increases. I tell the buyer's agent it is in their buyer's best interest to use the appraisers that live in our subdivision since they know what is going on. 

CHIEF

[Gil Bang 26059]

6 hours ago, Izhmash said:

We've actually enjoyed keeping up with Redfin. They have pretty recent updates once contracts close...not sure how they get the data so quick, but they seem to be ahead of the MLS. 

So I'm a realtor. 

 

I'm curious how it is that you think redfin is "ahead" of the MLS.

When I close a deal, I don't report it to redfin.   I do, of course, report it to the MLS withing 24 hours of closing, per MLS rules.  Redfin picks it up from the MLS, not the other-way-around. 

[quote]

We have fact-checked about 10-12 local homes in our neighborhood, and they have been dead on! That doesn't mean all of them are, but it gives me some confidence in their data. If you have other recommendations for sources of data, please share for the idiots.

[/quote]

What does that even mean?    Are you trying to say that you've "verified" the information that redfin publishes, and you found that it's accurate?   

Yeah, it should be, because they buy their information from the MLS.  

 

Realtors report listings/escrows/sales to the MLS, and redfin pulls that information.  That's how it works. 

 

[LurkingHorn 1072]

Have a funny story and figured this was a good place for it. A family down the street from us randomly put up their house for sale. It kind of surprised all of the neighbors. They had dozens of showings from Friday-Sunday so I decide to be nosy and go ask the sellers how everything had gone. 

Turns out they only decided to sell their house about two weeks ago and do not even have a place lined up to live. They're just 100% convinced that the market is topping out and in 6 months there's going to be a massive correction and they will buy back in to the same exact area for a better deal. It's just weird because they raved about how much they love their house, the area, the schools, etc. I probably looked like this during the conversation:

 

[Hefeweizen 5347]

18 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Have a funny story and figured this was a good place for it. A family down the street from us randomly put up their house for sale. It kind of surprised all of the neighbors. They had dozens of showings from Friday-Sunday so I decide to be nosy and go ask the sellers how everything had gone. 

Turns out they only decided to sell their house about two weeks ago and do not even have a place lined up to live. They're just 100% convinced that the market is topping out and in 6 months there's going to be a massive correction and they will buy back in to the same exact area for a better deal. It's just weird because they raved about how much they love their house, the area, the schools, etc. I probably looked like this during the conversation:

 

That sounds like some deep thinkers.  I have heard similar talk from other people I know and I always ask if they plan to move out of town.  Because that is the only way it’s a payday.  Otherwise you are trading up in mortgages.

 

Speaking of this scenario though a smaller house in my hood just got listed at 2.2 mill.  If they get that I don’t know if I can resist.  That is just stupid money for a house that was probably 800k pre Covid.

[UTPhil2006 3818]

58 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Have a funny story and figured this was a good place for it. A family down the street from us randomly put up their house for sale. It kind of surprised all of the neighbors. They had dozens of showings from Friday-Sunday so I decide to be nosy and go ask the sellers how everything had gone. 

Turns out they only decided to sell their house about two weeks ago and do not even have a place lined up to live. They're just 100% convinced that the market is topping out and in 6 months there's going to be a massive correction and they will buy back in to the same exact area for a better deal. It's just weird because they raved about how much they love their house, the area, the schools, etc. I probably looked like this during the conversation:

 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1904-E-13th-St-Austin-TX-78702/29388570_zpid/

 

I mean they did just cut 320M off the price... seems like a pretty good deal to me

[Gil Bang 26059]

50 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

That sounds like some deep thinkers.  I have heard similar talk from other people I know and I always ask if they plan to move out of town.  Because that is the only way it’s a payday.  Otherwise you are trading up in mortgages.

 

Speaking of this scenario though a smaller house in my hood just got listed at 2.2 mill.  If they get that I don’t know if I can resist.  That is just stupid money for a house that was probably 800k pre Covid.

This right here...this is how you humblebrag.

[Gil Bang 26059]

6 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1904-E-13th-St-Austin-TX-78702/29388570_zpid/

 

I mean they did just cut 320M off the price... seems like a pretty good deal to me

The architect that designed that abortion needs to be in GITMO

[Upgrayedd 5822]

Hey originators.  How's the queue looking?  Hearing reports that those numbers are way down from this period last year.

 

 

[UTPhil2006 3818]

8 minutes ago, Upgrayedd said:

Hey originators.  How's the queue looking?  Hearing reports that those numbers are way down from this period last year.

 

 

Not bad at all. I'd say similar numbers to last year at this time.

[Gil Bang 26059]

I wouldn't be surprised if numbers were down, because inventories (out here anyway) are low.

[Upgrayedd 5822]

15 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

I wouldn't be surprised if numbers were down, because inventories (out here anyway) are low.

That's the explanation I heard

[Austinvines 318]

Refi’s are still advantageous so Phil can still grab a deal even without a sale. I just cut 5 years off my loan with a slightly increased payment (less than $100) and was a good move with him that was less than another broker that knew the rate of Phil’s first offer.

[UT_OB1 2225]

On the Redfin / Zillow discussion earlier, do other large areas not have a HAR equivalent?  It’s not perfect, and I wouldn’t trust any of the computer models to give me a home value, but Zillow has so many dead listings and trash data it seems like.  Maybe I’m spoiled on HAR, but I would hate to have to rely on Zillow or Redfin if they is all there was in Houston. 

[Gil Bang 26059]

53 minutes ago, Austinvines said:

Refi’s are still advantageous so Phil can still grab a deal even without a sale. I just cut 5 years off my loan with a slightly increased payment (less than $100) and was a good move with him that was less than another broker that knew the rate of Phil’s first offer.

Yeah, that's the advantage that loan guys have in a declining interest market.

Me, I sell a guy a house, and maybe another in 7 years (on average).  In a 7 year span, Phil can refi the same guy a half-dozen times. 

[tokamak 6443]

On the Redfin / Zillow discussion earlier, do other large areas not have a HAR equivalent?  It’s not perfect, and I wouldn’t trust any of the computer models to give me a home value, but Zillow has so many dead listings and trash data it seems like.  Maybe I’m spoiled on HAR, but I would hate to have to rely on Zillow or Redfin if they is all there was in Houston. 

Every time I hear someone not from Houston talking about Zillow I’m thinking to myself “lol just get HAR you dumb bitch”

[TTU13 108]

Builders don’t have land or materials. I deal with builders on a daily basis. There are some who are actually slowing down not speeding up. Builders may catch up but it won’t be within a year. Also I don’t think sitting out helps anything. Prices aren’t going down.

Yup.

I live in a new-ish development where people typically do the “design build” type of thing. According to the head sales guy, due to lumber costs and labor shortage, the sales team for our builder is limited to 5 new build sales a month.

[jimmyjazz 46301]

How is HAR any better than its competitors?  I know nothing about the various business models, so take that into account.

[DonkeyCigars 143]

On 4/29/2021 at 9:43 AM, bluto said:

How does this even happen? This blows my mind. Either you bought at too high a premium or the growth rate/appreciation is horrible in Fort Worth, or your realtor sucked or something else. There has to be a story here.

I bought in line with market trends at a going rate, wasn’t a reach by any stretch, but poor timing on it. Just zero appreciation, natural or forced. Even a year+ after sale, I doubt it would get any more as of today, keeping an eye on the old hood. Sold $240/ft and that would put it in very high end of listings currently.

For the record, I’m a real estate professional and have been in the game in various sides for 10+ years.

I’ve been thinking about this situation way more than I should the past few weeks. It’s really unsettling and kinda bothering me. Something had to go wrong or be broken because it just doesn’t make any sense to me.

[UT_OB1 2225]

10 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

How is HAR any better than its competitors?  I know nothing about the various business models, so take that into account.

 Better info for one, IMO. I think part of that is not allowing non realtors to list.  A bunch of trash gets put up FSBO on Zillow and never updated.  The user interface is cleaner, and search functions and recently sold (6 mo, 12 mo, and 24 mo options) are more useful/functional. 

[UTPhil2006 3818]

14 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Yeah, that's the advantage that loan guys have in a declining interest market.

Me, I sell a guy a house, and maybe another in 7 years (on average).  In a 7 year span, Phil can refi the same guy a half-dozen times. 

Last couple years of rates dropping, and them currently being (in most cases) at or under 3 helps.  Especially jumbos.  Being able to get Jumbos right at or below 3 has been a few of the deals and also fairly unheard of until the last 6 months or so.  But companies are now realizing they need to incentivize them since loan amounts have jumped 

[LABEVO 928]

House a few blocks down sold for $635 sq/ft. I think we bought for ~$390 sq/ft in 2018.

[jimmyjazz 46301]

2 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

House a few blocks down sold for $635 sq/ft. I think we bought for ~$390 sq/ft in 2018.

Where is that?

[LABEVO 928]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Where is that?

Hyde Park

[bluto 4943]

I’ve been thinking about this situation way more than I should the past few weeks. It’s really unsettling and kinda bothering me. Something had to go wrong or be broken because it just doesn’t make any sense to me.

Minimal economic drivers in Fort Worth to push home values higher than when I bought and still not seeing the solid gains it did from the mid teens when I first moved there. Fort Worth missed the train on corp relo’s that wound up in Dallas/Collin co/southlake corridor and ended up hitching their wagon to lower wage industrial/distribution centers, while losing major white collars (XTO, radio shack, pier 1 hq’s). Only other major driver is medical but my house was in no man’s land price wise, too cheap for docs and too expensive for blue collar/teacher/nurse.

And if you want good schools you move to the burbs like aledo or the north lake towns, or come out of pocket for private.

[Dbeasy 15135]

On 4/28/2021 at 5:47 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Got our first heartfelt "we really want to buy in your neighborhood" letter today.

The thing is, the names checked out as living where they said they do (via TCAD), and the last name of the wife is the same as that of a beloved Texas politician . . . so I dug around and yep, it's his daughter.  Beyond that, the realtor they asked us to call (their agent) is well-known in Austin.

So, I don't think it's a scam.  It does seem like they are trying to pull an end-around on the market by finding a house that's not for sale, which I understand completely.

That said, taking all competition out of the process seems counter-productive.  I guess I can get a couple of market analyses done to get a better feel for the value of our house, but selling (a) without a possible bidding war and (b) still having to pay their realtor and an attorney on our side seems foolish.

And then there's the whole part about where we would live, which would still have to be in Austin.  We wouldn't buy another house, we only really need to be here one more year.  The obvious risk is if the market cools in that year, but honestly, I feel like it's still shooting up for the next several months, so that risk should be relatively mild.

Am I reading this correctly?

As an agent in the middle of this right now, DO NOT SELL without listing it. Find someone to list it for a discount. You will more than make up for the cost to sell in a higher price.  Edit: nothing wrong with throwing out a stupid high price to the buyer first to see if they bite, but you have to know what a stupid high price is right now.  I have clients that have lost out with bids $150k over asking, and asking was about 50% higher than what it typically would have been before the craziness started in January.

On the topic of sites, HAR is the official MLS feed for Houston and has the most up to date information. Zillow and others are very user friendly but have a lot of mistakes.  None of the sites can be trusted for comps, including Redfin, for anything other than getting the price to within about $35-40k +/-. Realtor.com isn't very user friendly but it has direct data from all MLS's so the data is good.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Dbeasy

[Gil Bang 26059]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

As an agent in the middle of this right now, DO NOT SELL without listing it. Find someone to list it for a discount. You will more than make up for the cost to sell in a higher price.  Edit: nothing wrong with throwing out a stupid high price to the buyer first to see if they bite, but you have to know what a stupid high price is right now.  I have clients that have lost out with bids $150k over asking, and asking was about 50% higher than what it typically would have been before the craziness started in January.

On the topic of sites, HAR is the official MLS feed for Houston and has the most up to date information. Zillow and others are very user friendly but have a lot of mistakes.  None of the sites can be trusted for comps, including Redfin, for anything other than getting the price to within about $35-40k +/-. Realtor.com isn't very user friendly but it has direct data from all MLS's so the data is good.

I agree on the first point.

As to HAR, is that available to the public?   Our MLS is member's-only, and buyers are emailed new listings only if their agents sets them up to receive emails from the MLS

[Dbeasy 15135]

5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

I agree on the first point.

As to HAR, is that available to the public?   Our MLS is member's-only, and buyers are emailed new listings only if their agents sets them up to receive emails from the MLS

Yes there is a consumer facing portal and it’s pretty good. Austin’s consumer facing portal is not very good, although they’ve been upgrading it recently. 

[jimmyjazz 46301]

3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

As an agent in the middle of this right now, DO NOT SELL without listing it.

Understood, I'm not really looking to sell, I can't feasibly leave Austin for at least a year if not more.  I'd love to time the peak, but my crystal ball is in the shop, so I'll just have to keep an eye on things and pay attention to influx/hiring/etc.

[Gil Bang 26059]

Yes there is a consumer facing portal and it’s pretty good. Austin’s consumer facing portal is not very good, although they’ve been upgrading it recently. 

I regularly encounter buyers that use Zillow because of its interface.
I always encourage them to double check anything that they on Zillow with realtor.com because it’s accurate and Zillow is dogshit.

[CooterBrown 18034]

I know Zillow is bullshit because they dropped my Zestimate from $910K to $889K over the past week.  The market only goes up and I should be over $1M because reasons.

 

[jimmyjazz 46301]

realtor.com has my home as a 4/3, when in reality it's a 5/4.5, so I assume that to some degree means the value is being underestimated.  I created an account and claimed the home, and edited the details to reflect the correct # of bedrooms and bathrooms, but the value didn't change.  Maybe it will at some point.

[Updawg 2286]

realtor.com has my home as a 4/3, when in reality it's a 5/4.5, so I assume that to some degree means the value is being underestimated.  I created an account and claimed the home, and edited the details to reflect the correct # of bedrooms and bathrooms, but the value didn't change.  Maybe it will at some point.

Tax appraiser will appreciate you doing that

[Okie State 3848]

Mine was showing I had an extra bedroom so I adjusted it down. Taxes did not go down which was shocking.

[Gil Bang 26059]

Do your tax rolls show beds/baths/sq. ft. out there?  

Did you ever add those rooms, or are they original?   

It's possible that the tax rolls are wrong.   If your house is assessed with the lower room count, consider yourself lucky

[jimmyjazz 46301]

We built the house in 2015.  It has not been expanded.  Tax assessment is correct -- I have fought it (via Texas ProTax) every year, and Travis County never had it assessed as a 4/3.

[Gil Bang 26059]

yeah well, zillow sucks donkey dicks. 

[TKthunder2 5005]

Y’all got me curious, but either I’m a lucky asshole or this thing isn’t very accurate...

[Sbbruin 21900]

18 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

yeah well, zillow sucks donkey dicks. 

Yeah, but its valuation of my home makes me happy even if I'm blissfully ignorant, so I support them.

[CHIEF 5095]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

realtor.com has my home as a 4/3, when in reality it's a 5/4.5, so I assume that to some degree means the value is being underestimated.  I created an account and claimed the home, and edited the details to reflect the correct # of bedrooms and bathrooms, but the value didn't change.  Maybe it will at some point.

They are going purely by square footage. Number of beds and baths won't make a difference.

CHIEF

[jimmyjazz 46301]

3 hours ago, CHIEF said:

They are going purely by square footage. Number of beds and baths won't make a difference.

CHIEF

Well, by square footage (and acreage) my house should be worth more than a few they quote nearby.  I don't really care other than I'd like to know if I could dump it for a major (as opposed to minor) windfall.

Either their algorithm is busted, or they don't update daily, or they are taking into account something other than "square footage".

[Gil Bang 26059]

21 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, by square footage (and acreage) my house should be worth more than a few they quote nearby.  I don't really care other than I'd like to know if I could dump it for a major (as opposed to minor) windfall.

Either their algorithm is busted, or they don't update daily, or they are taking into account something other than "square footage".

or, they just plain suck?