All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[bluto 4929]

I know appraisal industry is generally a load of shit, but lenders sharing the same roof as appraisers seems pretty damn sketchy.

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

27 minutes ago, bluto said:

I know appraisal industry is generally a load of shit, but lenders sharing the same roof as appraisers seems pretty damn sketchy.

From a service level perspective it’s awesome. Might there be some rickety involved in making a number?  I don’t think so- too far removed. I think you will see discipline in the process. Now- let a guy like me order the appraisal?  Yeah- that’s going to be little more than a rubber stamp, but you will get it quickly at a reliable price. What we have now is the worst of all worlds. This will be better. Even for the consumer. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

They’re basically just cutting out one step because most AMC’s simply weren’t responding in a timely manner or with no info (First Look, etc) and it was hurting the client, lender and brokers relationships all along the way. Basically UWM said “if you want something done right you gotta do it yourselves” and did.  Should be a major improvement on communication and turn times 

[tokamak 6431]

So basically the appraisal industry fucked around and now they’re finding out?

[UT_OB1 2223]

@UTPhil2006 how long will that discount last?  I started to ReFi our Airbnb and our personal home when Thad found the mistake on our credit report. I got that resolved, but in the meantime got my dumb ass under contract on a fix and hold 4 unit in Brazoria. It’s taken forever on appraisal but should be closed first week of October, so can’t reFi until then. Think it will still be going then?

[UTPhil2006 3807]

59 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

@UTPhil2006 how long will that discount last?  I started to ReFi our Airbnb and our personal home when Thad found the mistake on our credit report. I got that resolved, but in the meantime got my dumb ass under contract on a fix and hold 4 unit in Brazoria. It’s taken forever on appraisal but should be closed first week of October, so can’t reFi until then. Think it will still be going then?

Yeah from what I gather it’s a permanent change not a special 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

10 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

@UTPhil2006 how long will that discount last?  I started to ReFi our Airbnb and our personal home when Thad found the mistake on our credit report. I got that resolved, but in the meantime got my dumb ass under contract on a fix and hold 4 unit in Brazoria. It’s taken forever on appraisal but should be closed first week of October, so can’t reFi until then. Think it will still be going then?

Email sent.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

11 hours ago, tokamak said:

So basically the appraisal industry fucked around and now they’re finding out?

The AMC was a good thing and was necessary, but then once the industry became overwhelmed with Appraisal requests this past 6 months it became another step and another person that was overwhelmed and then stopped responding or didn't have answers.  So then you had to go through 3 levels instead of 2 to get told I dunno when we can get it.  The lender (UWM) is just cutting out one step in the process in an effort to streamline it more.  But to answer your question, pretty much yeah.

[Pato del Muerto 52505]

3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

The AMC was a good thing and was necessary, but then once the industry became overwhelmed with Appraisal requests this past 6 months it became another step and another person that was overwhelmed and then stopped responding or didn't have answers.  So then you had to go through 3 levels instead of 2 to get told I dunno when we can get it.  The lender (UWM) is just cutting out one step in the process in an effort to streamline it more.  But to answer your question, pretty much yeah.

We ended up calling appraisers directly and asking them if they would log in and accept our assignment, until we found one that would. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

We ended up calling appraisers directly and asking them if they would log in and accept our assignment, until we found one that would. 

Yeah we started doing all of our deals as correspondent so that we could choose the AMC and then chose one that was local to Texas and that we pretty much knew where they were getting assigned and that it would be done on time and professionally and correspondence would be on point.  One of the higher ups used to be a big named appraiser/company back in the day so if shit were to go awry or questions weren't being answered we actually had someone specific to call about it to get it done rather than fill out some form or some third party email that may or may not get answered by some desk shmuck in Chicago.

[UT_OB1 2223]

43 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

We ended up calling appraisers directly and asking them if they would log in and accept our assignment, until we found one that would. 

We are using a hard money lender, and they we’re having trouble finding an appraiser. I ended up calling the banks around Brazoria and asking who they used. Forwarded those contacts to the lender and they used one of those. Saved us a few weeks (and $1500)

[Gil Bang 25960]

When I started as a construction loan guy at an S&L many, many moons ago, our office space was shared with our in-house appraisal department.  About a dozen appraisers, a manager, and 3 or 4 clerical staff.   I shared that space for a couple of years, and I heard LO's calling appraisers and busting their balls to get to a certain number over and over and over. 

I'm a fan of appraisers being distanced from the people that have a financial motivation to have the appraisal "come in". 

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

31 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

When I started as a construction loan guy at an S&L many, many moons ago, our office space was shared with our in-house appraisal department.  About a dozen appraisers, a manager, and 3 or 4 clerical staff.   I shared that space for a couple of years, and I heard LO's calling appraisers and busting their balls to get to a certain number over and over and over. 

I'm a fan of appraisers being distanced from the people that have a financial motivation to have the appraisal "come in". 

Sure. That was sort of my point that you ha e to worry about a guy in my situation beating them up about value. I don’t think you have to worry about UWM playing that role- they are too big and far removed to mess with that imo. 
I will Just be happy to have their price be their price, and the report delivered in a timely period and on time. 
 

[Slacks 6821]

So... how do Appraisers make money?  Is it like a side hustle for them or something?  Are they busy enough to average two a day every business day?

 

[bluto 4929]

So... how do Appraisers make money?  Is it like a side hustle for them or something?  Are they busy enough to average two a day every business day?
 

Straight volume

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

1 hour ago, Snacks said:

So... how do Appraisers make money?  Is it like a side hustle for them or something?  Are they busy enough to average two a day every business day?

 

It's amazing to me how bad they are at basic management services and delivery.  I guess that's what happens when the average age of the appraiser is 58 years old in Texas.  So many stories.  Ugggghhhh. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

1 hour ago, Snacks said:

So... how do Appraisers make money?  Is it like a side hustle for them or something?  Are they busy enough to average two a day every business day?

 

They should be rolling in it right now.  I guess it's a matter of how much time you're willing to invest getting good, accurate reports (takes a bit of time) out as fast as you can so you can get on to the next one.  There isn't any shortage of orders for now that's for sure.

[Assman 1830]

How does one become an appraiser?  Do they usually have a RE background?  Construction background?  Can you be self-employed or are you usually an employee of Muledick Mortgage?

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

5 minutes ago, Assman said:

How does one become an appraiser?  Do they usually have a RE background?  Construction background?  Can you be self-employed or are you usually an employee of Muledick Mortgage?

Not a mortgage employee. 
yes you can be self employed. 
you take orders from an AMC, basically as much work as you want in this market environment. 
there’s a barrier to entry that you have to work for some time as an apprentice under a licensed appraiser. How long I don’t know. 

[Gil Bang 25960]

So... how do Appraisers make money?  Is it like a side hustle for them or something?  Are they busy enough to average two a day every business day?
 

How hard do they want to work? $400/day is $2000/week. Or double that. It’s a good living. You aren’t gonna get rich, but you can take care of a family

[Neonmoon 38129]

8 hours ago, Assman said:

How does one become an appraiser?  Do they usually have a RE background?  Construction background?  Can you be self-employed or are you usually an employee of Muledick Mortgage?

You have to get licensed. 
https://www.vaned.com/index.cfm/fa/APP/fa2/how-to-get-licensed

You will most likely work for an Appraisal Management Company (AMC) as a contractor. They assign all the jobs.  All the big lenders use them, which is where all the volume is. You can have your own LLC, and work independent of AMCs, but then you have to recruit smaller Third Party Originators to specifically send you business. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

11 hours ago, Assman said:

How does one become an appraiser?  Do they usually have a RE background?  Construction background?  Can you be self-employed or are you usually an employee of Muledick Mortgage?

Hey leave our subsidiary Muledick Mortgage out of this..

[UTPhil2006 3807]

8 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

How hard do they want to work? $400/day is $2000/week. Or double that. It’s a good living. You aren’t gonna get rich, but you can take care of a family

Appraisals are closer to $600 now for the standard 1004.  Bigger homes are more, rush orders are more, etc so it can add up quickly

[CHIEF 5091]

11 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not a mortgage employee. 
yes you can be self employed. 
you take orders from an AMC, basically as much work as you want in this market environment. 
there’s a barrier to entry that you have to work for some time as an apprentice under a licensed appraiser. How long I don’t know. 

Six months minimum, for no pay. My broker (mom) is on me now to get an appraisal license. The problem is no appraiser is willing to take on apprentices currently, they are way too busy. 

CHIEF

[Brew 3049]

9 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

How hard do they want to work? $400/day is $2000/week. Or double that. It’s a good living. You aren’t gonna get rich, but you can take care of a family

That would be low side, the ones I know are all $200k+ net with some upwards of $300k. One appraiser with the right staff people can turn out a lot of reports. Get commercially certified and it can go up from there although there is a lot more time involved. Most of them also have extensive rental holdings as they have the relationships with the banks and realtors to buy property in the right situations.

[Slacks 6821]

49 minutes ago, Brew said:

That would be low side, the ones I know are all $200k+ net with some upwards of $300k. One appraiser with the right staff people can turn out a lot of reports. Get commercially certified and it can go up from there although there is a lot more time involved. Most of them also have extensive rental holdings as they have the relationships with the banks and realtors to buy property in the right situations.

This seems like something that could get app-ified and make someone a lot of money... 

[Gil Bang 25960]

Meh.  I was guessing 400 to the actual appraiser, after the referring appraisal firm takes their cut. 

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

9 minutes ago, Snacks said:

This seems like something that could get app-ified and make someone a lot of money... 

Well, we continue to get, in the market place, more and more appraisal waivers with DU and LP, so there is the idea, I suppose, that the amount of work that an appraiser will have in the future will be much lower as the underlying programs just trust the DU and LP model.  I would suggest that in an environment then where you have foreclosures back in play that people will blame the computer valuation and that will be pulled back on a bit.  

It's a good job for now. I think even if we continue to see more waivers it will still be a good job, as there are way more people exiting the market than entering the market.

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Meh.  I was guessing 400 to the actual appraiser, after the referring appraisal firm takes their cut. 

Sure. That's probably about right as an average though in this market they likely get more if they cherry pick looking for rushes and bonuses. But- I would think a good appraiser can do at least 2 a day.  That means, essentially, that they are making 800 a day.  250 work days a year and that's a 200k income pretty easily. And you don't have to go out and get your own clients or customers. You literally just sign up with the AMC's and decide if you want the work.  

[Updawg 2266]

This has me interested. I can theoretically retire in roughly 3 years. Maybe I could do appraisals 2-3 days a week and golf /travel the rest of the time

[jimmyjazz 45962]

2 hours ago, CHIEF said:

Six months minimum, for no pay.

No pay?  That seems harsh.  Apprentice plumbers, electricians, etc. at least make some dough.

[UT_OB1 2223]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. That's probably about right as an average though in this market they likely get more if they cherry pick looking for rushes and bonuses. But- I would think a good appraiser can do at least 2 a day.  That means, essentially, that they are making 800 a day.  250 work days a year and that's a 200k income pretty easily. And you don't have to go out and get your own clients or customers. You literally just sign up with the AMC's and decide if you want the work.  

Just paid over $3k for a commercial appraisal.  The lackey came to get pictures and info that he sends to the guy that will come up with an actual number. It is an odd property with a triplex, 2 SF homes, and 1 current mobile home / Rv pad (I’m going to finish out 4-8 more), but he didn’t spend more than 30 minutes on the property, and he was coming from a couple other appraisals he had done in the area. 
I’m in the wrong line of work. 
 

I do like the idea of getting a jump on properties

[UTPhil2006 3807]

1 hour ago, Snacks said:

This seems like something that could get app-ified and make someone a lot of money... 

It'll get there within the next 5 years IMO

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

51 minutes ago, Updawg said:

This has me interested. I can theoretically retire in roughly 3 years. Maybe I could do appraisals 2-3 days a week and golf /travel the rest of the time

Absolutely do it. No customer acquisition costs, you can turn down whatever work you don’t want, and if you were smart you could pick the work that pays the best or the work that’s easiest. 
I had a guy on some average in Waco for example say $1950 and a 6 week turn time the other day. We’d have paid the $1950 if he could have done it in 2 weeks for example. Those kind of name your price deals are out there all the time. 
hell, you could probably just specialize in doing a rush deal a day and knock down $1,000 plus per deal for doing it. 
plenty of people in a hot market willing to pay literally whatever to make sure their deal closed without any hassle. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[CHIEF 5091]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

No pay?  That seems harsh.  Apprentice plumbers, electricians, etc. at least make some dough.

A couple of guys I know did it. You have to commute into DFW to get a paid position. The one's around here do a few in between golfing and fishing, or they are at the other end of the spectrum, slammed. All of them work independently, from home, and aren't eager to teach. I have enough in savings to do it, and would still be able to work as an agent. I'm too lazy to commute, so I will wait until the market cools a bit and find a local guy.

CHIEF

[Assman 1830]

1500 hours of experience in no less than 12 months before even being licensed?  There's the barrier to admission.  No one has 4 days a week to burn on an unpaid apprenticeship.  I should have done this last year when SWA was paying me to not work.

[Updawg 2266]

Yeah but it seems like a good, easy post retirement part time gig. Except the time amount to get certified.

[gmr548 16580]

9 hours ago, Snacks said:

This seems like something that could get app-ified and make someone a lot of money... 

I just crossed over into underwriting after four years in valuation. From my perspective, it could definitely be done and would produce more accurate and impartial results, but there are a few roadblocks:

1.) Barrier to entry re: licensing. Discussed above. Not all apprenticeships are unpaid - some firms will pay for your license the same way an accounting firm would pay for a CPA, but it is time consuming.

2.) Availability of data in non-disclosure jurisdictions such as TX.

3.) More common in commercial, but back-and-forth to meet underwriting targets.

That said, big commercial valuation shops are automating (albeit slowly), and those that are leaning into it are able to produce quicker turns and/or increase their volume pretty substantially. Single-family appraisals are far simpler and could probably be automated relatively easy as long as the data is solid, but it's also much more of a splintered cottage industry in that space.

Edited September 23, 2021 by gmr548

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

9.23 chart.pdf

Damn it, I'm a stupid and having a hard time posting a chart as an image.  Basically this morning takeaway was down 30 basis points in the MBS market.  Fallen below support.  Possible that it goes into a free fall.  The smartest guys I know in the industry (Barry Habib at MBS Highway) says bias toward locking today and going forward. Significant downside risk of rates going up up up. 

So- what happened was yesterday the Fed met and released their report.  No Tapering, going to kick the can down the road until November.  Cool- the market was up 11 and stayed up 11.  Then, the chairman started talking and he said- yeah- we are definitely going to taper here in November absent something crazy. We think inflation is fine.  We think the jobs market has basically recovered, and then the dot chart showed fed raising rates moved forward from 2023 until 2022.  Everyone freaked and within 5 minutes of his press conference beginning we had a 40 bip reversal on the day (broad strokes).  Then, it rallied and finished above support and I though- ok- initial freak out- plus technical trading freak out but we rallied back and finished above support.  No problem.

This morning we are down 30, and everytime we try to recover briefly we give it right back.  

I've had my entire pipeline locked anticipating this move with the Fed. I've been telling everyone I'm working with- get your application in now and if the fed goes our way we will move you to a different lender- but if it doesn't go our way this sets a really good floor below which the deal can't get worse.  My guys listened which was nice.  

Now- for those that see this and say- is this too late?  My response would be no. Rates are still great and if you didn't do it yet and are vacillating back and forth you might have missed the absolute rock bottom but you are still in really good shape.  Under the right circumstances we are still presenting a pretty good benefit to refinance someone at a rate of 3.0 right now on a 30. (I have a Surly guy who pulled the trigger on that right after the announcement of us sponsoring- he's happy he did- which is nuts).  We've still got stuff that starts with a 1 on it for the right deal in a shorter term loan, with no paying of points.  There are options that are still fantastic if you are sitting with a loan that starts with a 3.  We'd love to help you. Everytime we help someone here it gives back to the community (UT atheletics in general and Surly in particular) in a myriad of ways which is why I was so happy to partner with @immamac @Scipio, @blacklab to do this- but if you don't get with us get with someone else.  Now.  All evidence points to downside risk of significantly higher rates in the future, and there is no reason to have lost this opportunity to square away your financial life and get something done.  

 

As I've typed this long cat we have moved to down 36.  This is going to be one of those days for some where it's a scramble to mitigate their risk.  Don't let the opportunity get away from you.  

 

Edited September 23, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

Weeeeee!  Roller Coaster in full affect.  Down 55 for the day now.  MBS said there wasn't any support until all the way to 100.15.  We were at 101.15 yesterday at lunch time (more or less).  100 bip move in 24 hours would be a LOT.  

[jimmyjazz 45962]

From today's WaPo:

Quote

“There is plenty of uncertainty looming regarding the debt ceiling, the ongoing infrastructure debate, as well as the impact of the delta variant,” said Elizabeth Rose, sales manager at AmCap Mortgage. “Then you add in the geo-news of Evergrande. This Chinese company is on the brink of collapse, and a default would wreak havoc. The concern is already showing up in both the Chinese stock market and the U.S. stock market. Keep in mind, mortgage bonds respond favorably to bad news, which in turn helps keep interest rates low.”

I would think the eventual taper should pressure rates to rise, but that's not the only game in town.  Regardless, they are so insanely low right now . . . I think a lot of consumers lack true perspective.

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

From today's WaPo:

I would think the eventual taper should pressure rates to rise, but that's not the only game in town.  Regardless, they are so insanely low right now . . . I think a lot of consumers lack true perspective.

Absolutely positively correct.  I was an A+ deal when I bought my first house in 2005 at 5.75% and 8.25% on the second.  Then, rates got into the 4's and we all freaked out.  Rates in the 3's and it was like- wow.  Rates in the 2's was heaven and almost wrecked the industry b/c it happened too fast. Now, putting people in at 1.875 or 1.99 on 15's?  Insane.  It's all good.  

And yes- Shit always happens, and shit is typically good for the bond market and interest rates (hello Covid).  But, I think we are probably off of all time lows and we are still so close to the all time low that if you are undecided make the decision.  Your upside if it continues to eke down is what- 1/8 of a point. Maaaaybe 1/4 of a point- but probably not. Your downside is that you lose a point (and still end up better than 99% of humans who ever held a mortgage prior to Covid).  

Great point.  Totally plausible.  That doesn't change my advice to do it now as a form of risk mitigation...

[Gil Bang 25960]

As to app-based appraisals, I vote "fuck no".   

[Slacks 6821]

Anybody know anybody selling doors of multi-family? I may be interested in buying in the right places at the right prices...

 

[Slacks 6821]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

As to app-based appraisals, I vote "fuck no".   

Sears voted "fuck no" to online catalog sales.

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

Ended the day down 70 bips.  Free fallin.  Still a ways to go before support kicks in- another 30 bips to the fibbinochi support level. 

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

UMBS 30YR 2% : 100.36
Day Change : +6bp
10:00 CHG : +16bp
10:30 CHG : +16bp
11:00 CHG : +11bp
 

market looks like it stared into the abyss around 10:00 and said not today. If this is all the further it gets and that lower support level holds I think rates are probably ok for rest of the year. Market has completely priced tapering into the November fed meeting, absent a terrible jobs report.m in October. The question is not if so much as how quickly will they do it, in all likelihood. 

[Gil Bang 25960]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

UMBS 30YR 2% : 100.36
Day Change : +6bp
10:00 CHG : +16bp
10:30 CHG : +16bp
11:00 CHG : +11bp
 

market looks like it stared into the abyss around 10:00 and said not today. If this is all the further it gets and that lower support level holds I think rates are probably ok for rest of the year. Market has completely priced tapering into the November fed meeting, absent a terrible jobs report.m in October. The question is not if so much as how quickly will they do it, in all likelihood. 

So, are you still advising clients to lock immediately, or has new shit come to light?  That's a serious question BTW, not trying to bust anybody's balls. 

[Wulaw Horn 19073]

4 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

So, are you still advising clients to lock immediately, or has new shit come to light?  That's a serious question BTW, not trying to bust anybody's balls. 

Ha. I advised everyone to lock heading into the fed meeting. Market took a shit yesterday. I got in a contract last night and we are carefully floating. If we end today in positive territory I think it’s likely to get back some of the ~110? 120? Bips we’ve lost in the last 7 or 8 days.  I’d have it tee’d up to lock if we break through support at 100.18 otherwise I’d let it ride a bit and see what kind of bounce we get. If support holds we will get a bounce 

Edited September 24, 2021 by Wulaw Horn

[Gil Bang 25960]

Thx.  I'm working with a buyer right now and she's not sure what to do.  

I appreciate all of your updates here.