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UTPhil2006

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Sorry I blew that support floor. It’s 1.133 not 1.18 as I’d said before. Basically at the 10:00 low for the day it hit support and bounced up. Advice is still the same- carefully float ready to pull the trigger. 
September 2 we were at 101.45 as a comparison for how this month did. 
usually stock market bad means bond market good and vice Versa. October is traditionally a bad stock market month and there’s technical rebalancing stuff that happens at the end of a quarter so gun to my head is suspect bounce somewhat. 
 

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2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Thx.  I'm working with a buyer right now and she's not sure what to do.  

I appreciate all of your updates here. 

 

There’s a reason for the adage you can’t time the market- right?  Rates are pretty low. There’s no big news expected out for a bit. Market gonna do what the market gonna do. Conceptually, I view it as my goal to give customers advice to try to get the highest floor possible on their mortgage deal- so downside risk is protected against. It’s always a good idea to get a safety lock in whenever there is going to be big news that can move a market a lot like a fed meeting or a Friday dump with jobs, GDP and other stuff. Then- if it goes against you you have a higher floor, and if the market gets better you take your business elsewhere (that’s the benefit of being a broker that works with 85 lenders- you can always move a deal if you have to). 
now, if you are under the fun to close you just lock and grin and bear it and hope you are right. 
but yeah - anyone who didn’t have downside protection at the beginning of this week was doing it wrong. With no more known market moving events scheduled Between now and the end of the month play for the bounce and be ready to get out ASAP if the technicals get wonky. 
I plan on doing more market update stuff and sharing more now with our sponsorship. So people at home can play along if interested. It might not be a daily thing but rather a momentum/new driven thing. Or a small update at the beginning of the day saying we are floating, carefully floating, or locking. Carefully floating essentially means have you stuff in and be ready to push the button instantly. Floating and locking are pretty self explanatory. 

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1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I think it’s a knee jerk reaction but yes anyone who has been Doc’d the last few days would be wise to lock 

Agreed. That’s why I would expect a bounce. The advice from the fed on Wednesday shouldn’t have sent the market into a tailspin. It’s known they want to end tapering and they’ve kicked the can down the road again. Initially (like 3 months ago the thought was it would happen at this meeting. 

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Up 17.  I think the market did it's thing and it's done doing it's thing and the technical stopped as well.  That's my take going into the weekend.  @Gil Bangif your lady has her application in and is under contract and trying to figure out whether to lock or not right now I'd tell her to let it ride- but stay ready.  I will at you ( and post here) with a lock alert if my fundamentals trip that. Sound good?

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6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Up 17.  I think the market did it's thing and it's done doing it's thing and the technical stopped as well.  That's my take going into the weekend.  @Gil Bangif your lady has her application in and is under contract and trying to figure out whether to lock or not right now I'd tell her to let it ride- but stay ready.  I will at you ( and post here) with a lock alert if my fundamentals trip that. Sound good?

I think you need to PM Gil for accuracy. 

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Shout out to Phil and Thad for doing a fantastic job in helping one of my home buyer clients to get his house purchase closed. They made a huge difference in the process. They worked on a weekend to help us lock-down a contract on a house in a very competitive environment. They worked the process hard to be able to close almost two weeks early. They handled urgent questions and issues quickly, which kept the deal on-track. And they ended up with a competitive mortgage rate and cost. Awesome job guys. They may not have a sex tent, but they know their shit.

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MBS starting the morning down 25 basis points. Almost to support that they saw and bounced off of Friday before ending the day up 13. I don’t think there’s any market moving news, at least I haven’t seen any yet, so maybe technicals moving the market. Be interesting to see if support holds or if it ends up not and we might have seen the last of 30 year starting with a 2. 

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27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

MBS starting the morning down 25 basis points. Almost to support that they saw and bounced off of Friday before ending the day up 13. I don’t think there’s any market moving news, at least I haven’t seen any yet, so maybe technicals moving the market. Be interesting to see if support holds or if it ends up not and we might have seen the last of 30 year starting with a 2. 

Can you explain the correlation between MBS and 30-year fixed rate notes?

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30 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Can you explain the correlation between MBS and 30-year fixed rate notes?

How in depth an answer do you want? 
Are you talking about what is the trend between the two?  The higher the MBS rate is the lower your interest rate. Or are you talking about what kind of add on or spread exists?  That’s going to be variable because there is an add ons throughout the process where everyone collects a spread and that’s going to be market based with various lenders pricing their interest rates at various price points dealing with capacities to do loans. 
think of oil and the price you pay at the pump as an example there. Oil could be free but gas won’t be free because you still have to drill it, transport it, refine it and sell it. The input goes up and the price goes up, the input goes down and the price goes down but at a certain point there is a cost to produce the product that the consumer is going to pay regardless of what the input price is. Same with mortgages. Your lender has to underwrite it. The originator needs to get paid, and the competition for time exists, the higher the demand in the market the less surplus capacity everyone has. The less surplus capacity to perform everyone has the pickier they will be and the higher the spread. 
That’s why historically low yields on 10 year treasury and historically high prices on the bonds didn’t see historically low rates in March of last year- everyone in the world was refinancing and the industry just couldn’t handle the demand. December of 2020 saw lower rates than March of last year because the demand was lower and more people could handle the capacity so pricing was sharper. 
for example- last spring I knew guys who just wouldn’t do a loan under 250 or worse credit than 700, or any kind of discount. They were so busy they couldn’t close it all so they sorted it by best/easiest/most profitable deal. Lenders were doing the same. We’d walk up with caliber and they’d have 3 for pricing and by the end of the day it would be 3.5 and the market had gotten better. I that scenario there was basically no correlation at all. 
If you are looking for something more technical let me know. 

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16 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

That's all I needed, thanks.

Oh- as a point of reference, and this isn't always true but horse shoes and handgrenages close- typically 50 basis points means 1/8 of a point in rate to customer.  So when I say that we are off 130 basis points from Wednesday 11 days ago- that's 3/8 of a point in rate to customer typically.  At least 1/4.

I have a handy dandy tool that tells me what the average interest rate is being locked for everyone in the country. Today - 30 year fixed was 3.19%  I want to say that was 3.02% not all that long ago (like 3 or 4 days). 

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33 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I thinks 2’s are going poof soon 

We were down 22 basis points today. I can still get the right person a 2 something on the right deal and loan size- but the national average is up to 3.22 I believe. 
My wizards of smart just went from looking at the payout on a 2.0 coupon to the payout on a 2.5 coupon. So, yeah, that’s a big jump. 

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Those aren't my rates, those are the national rates for what each different kind of pricing is.  This way- you can quickly comparison shop and will let you know if the deal you have is better or worse than the typical man on the street is getting.  MBS market is up 20 basis points today, first day up in seemingly forever as it's cratered the last 13 days.

My guess as to reasons in order of importance

1) Fed guidance that they are going to announce that they begin tapering almost assuredly in November

2) Fed comments that inflation might be higher and around longer than previously thought (supply chain still isn't fixed which is pushing up prices on lots of stuff- along with more money in the economy).

3) Uncertainty over debt ceiling

4) fear of a 3.5 trillion plus spending bill and what that might do to inflation on down the road.

I'm a dove on inflation.  I think it's transitory and I think in the two to three year term it's just not a big concern.  I don't see any robust and pro growth policies (this isn't political- not every policy needs to be pro growth- you can favor spotted owl over logger as a really simplistic example and it's just a choice, there's no moral imperative to being pro growth) on tap, I see the world continuing to shrink, money continuing to flow to low wage countries, more people at the bottom benefiting from the ability to sell their labor cheaper- all the stuff we've seen since the dawn of the information age seems to be tamping down the idea of inflation to me, but what the hell do I know, I don't have a crystal ball- this is just my guess if we are talking 2 years.  

Rates could go to 5 during this time period, and hell, they could go back to 2.5. I think they will trade in a tight range for the foreseeable future- call it 2.5-4.5 over the next 3 or so years.  I think they are going back up into the 3's (already there on average) and maybe even touch 4's (we were there) in the next 6-12 months, but maybe we rally, or get a bad jobs report (or a good inflation report) and guidance that we won't taper and they drop back down, or a shooting war or anything that injects uncertainty into the market where people then go running to the perceived safety of bonds.

There's been a lot of movement as we don't usually see 150 point swings in the market- and I think we might have just passed an inflection point, so I wanted to make the point that if you were thinking about doing something the time to jump was last week and into this week- or carefully viewing an opportunity to lock at a bounce where we'd be likely to see slight improvement.  There won't be a daily look in absent something unusual and I will maybe post the national chart on Monday mornings as a point of comparison and so that people looking can have an idea of what good is.   For a well qualified borrower we are typically 1/4- 3/8 of a point better than that national average as an FYI. So you can get an idea of what a good solid broker rate should be in comparison to the national average.     

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Those aren't my rates, those are the national rates for what each different kind of pricing is.  This way- you can quickly comparison shop and will let you know if the deal you have is better or worse than the typical man on the street is getting.  MBS market is up 20 basis points today, first day up in seemingly forever as it's cratered the last 13 days.

My guess as to reasons in order of importance

1) Fed guidance that they are going to announce that they begin tapering almost assuredly in November

2) Fed comments that inflation might be higher and around longer than previously thought (supply chain still isn't fixed which is pushing up prices on lots of stuff- along with more money in the economy).

3) Uncertainty over debt ceiling

4) fear of a 3.5 trillion plus spending bill and what that might do to inflation on down the road.

I'm a dove on inflation.  I think it's transitory and I think in the two to three year term it's just not a big concern.  I don't see any robust and pro growth policies (this isn't political- not every policy needs to be pro growth- you can favor spotted owl over logger as a really simplistic example and it's just a choice, there's no moral imperative to being pro growth) on tap, I see the world continuing to shrink, money continuing to flow to low wage countries, more people at the bottom benefiting from the ability to sell their labor cheaper- all the stuff we've seen since the dawn of the information age seems to be tamping down the idea of inflation to me, but what the hell do I know, I don't have a crystal ball- this is just my guess if we are talking 2 years.  

Rates could go to 5 during this time period, and hell, they could go back to 2.5. I think they will trade in a tight range for the foreseeable future- call it 2.5-4.5 over the next 3 or so years.  I think they are going back up into the 3's (already there on average) and maybe even touch 4's (we were there) in the next 6-12 months, but maybe we rally, or get a bad jobs report (or a good inflation report) and guidance that we won't taper and they drop back down, or a shooting war or anything that injects uncertainty into the market where people then go running to the perceived safety of bonds.

There's been a lot of movement as we don't usually see 150 point swings in the market- and I think we might have just passed an inflection point, so I wanted to make the point that if you were thinking about doing something the time to jump was last week and into this week- or carefully viewing an opportunity to lock at a bounce where we'd be likely to see slight improvement.  There won't be a daily look in absent something unusual and I will maybe post the national chart on Monday mornings as a point of comparison and so that people looking can have an idea of what good is.   For a well qualified borrower we are typically 1/4- 3/8 of a point better than that national average as an FYI. So you can get an idea of what a good solid broker rate should be in comparison to the national average.     

Would ya?

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22 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Is this accurate? This is what I kept looking at when we were shopping for a mortgage.

http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/

.7% fees and points be interesting, don't know how that translates to the other that is being looked at.  I mean- if you want to give me 7/10's in loan amount I usually give you 0.2 points off your mortgage.  Maybe 1/4 off the mortgage rate depending on deal type and where on the chart that is.  It's probably not too far off.  That came out Thursday.  MBS market is down something like 105 basis points since Thursday morning to today.  Add 0.25% to the 2.88 and you get to 3.13.  My chart had 3.21 today so it's the same neighborhood. 

That slight change on Thursday of last week.  Thursday (tomorrow) will not have that same first sentence recap.

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For those that I've talked to, quoted, Pre Approval, etc for loan amounts in the 5's and 6's the conventional loan limit at UWM is going to 625,000 (up from 548,250) starting today.  Jumbo rates have been pretty solid the last 6 months or so but conventional is like at least a quarter better which at those loan amounts makes a decent size difference.  As always you can email, PM, etc me if you want me to run any numbers for you

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Just got that same email from UWM so we are in the same boat.  2 things that are interesting to wonder about:

1) I wonder if other lenders will start doing that now as well.  Almost all lenders honor the next years conventional limits when they officially get announced in November- that's a herd mentality thing. I  wonder if UWM will be out there alone doing this now- or if others will start honoring them today (UWM often times isn't the best priced lender that we can use- but they do stuff to make the deal go down easier, safer and quicker so....)

2) Will Austin become a high balance area?  How about the Metroplex?  It's beyond absurd to see what house prices there are fetching in these areas and have them not be high balance areas.  The time is now.  Make Austin (and maybe Dallas) a high balance area.  That would take it up to 750 or 800k before you had to go to Jumbo.

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4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just got that same email from UWM so we are in the same boat.  2 things that are interesting to wonder about:

1) I wonder if other lenders will start doing that now as well.  Almost all lenders honor the next years conventional limits when they officially get announced in November- that's a herd mentality thing. I  wonder if UWM will be out there alone doing this now- or if others will start honoring them today (UWM often times isn't the best priced lender that we can use- but they do stuff to make the deal go down easier, safer and quicker so....)

2) Will Austin become a high balance area?  How about the Metroplex?  It's beyond absurd to see what house prices there are fetching in these areas and have them not be high balance areas.  The time is now.  Make Austin (and maybe Dallas) a high balance area.  That would take it up to 750 or 800k before you had to go to Jumbo.

Y’all let me know when that happens. Then I’ll get a HELOC and pull the trigger on a big remodel (different builder than the one I got bribed by this year) and then refinance when it’s done. 

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Worse than expected jobs report, 20 year treasury is down in after hours and it should be a good little bounce in MBS market today. We’ve gotten 30 of the 140 bips back that we lost over the last couple weeks. I could see another up 20 or 30 day. 
continuing resolution to fund government getting passed helped the last couple days. 
this is the bump I predicted happening earlier in the week. 
this afternoon would probably be a good time to jump in again if you are looking to do something and want to get back in at pretty close to recent lows. 
I think that we are probably up only about 1/4 of a point from all time lows back last December. 
I’ve been saying I don’t know that we will ever get back there to 2.5/2.6 on a 30, but I think that 2.75 isn’t out of the question right now. Or 2.875 for free (All closing costs paid) if you have a healthy sized loan. 
feel free to PM me or call at 832-557-1095 if you want us to look and see if anything makes sense for you. 

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On 9/25/2021 at 8:34 AM, Dbeasy said:

Shout out to Phil and Thad for doing a fantastic job in helping one of my home buyer clients to get his house purchase closed. They made a huge difference in the process. They worked on a weekend to help us lock-down a contract on a house in a very competitive environment. They worked the process hard to be able to close almost two weeks early. They handled urgent questions and issues quickly, which kept the deal on-track. And they ended up with a competitive mortgage rate and cost. Awesome job guys. They may not have a sex tent, but they know their shit.

Thanks man!  Look forward to working with you again on the next one!  Good job all around

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12 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

What will lenders do to combat Quicken? They’re just way outpacing everyone else. 

Personally I think it’s more likely Quicken collapses on itself.  They are getting beat on pricing by some of their online chop shop competitors and I and my ilk (the local lenders) beat them on service.  They may be left without a niche, which might explain poring resources into correspondent lending and acting as a broker channel.  

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23 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Personally I think it’s more likely Quicken collapses on itself.  They are getting beat on pricing by some of their online chop shop competitors and I and my ilk (the local lenders) beat them on service.  They may be left without a niche, which might explain poring resources into correspondent lending and acting as a broker channel.  

No agent, in the history of ever, has ever said “thank you so much for bringing me a prequal from Quicken” to you’re point on service. 
to your point on price I have never had to sweat for a minute about beating out quicken price wise. It’s just not great. 
yeah- I don’t know what they do well other than spend a jillion dollars on customer acquisition. 

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National Average for loan types above as I said I'd post weekly (or as things got interesting one way or another).

We can do better for many/most people.  Some people will do worse depending on credit etc and so forth.

You can see rates are down from Wednesday last time I posted it. That was after the market had been kicked in the teeth repeatedly. I was calling for a bit of a rally and we got that to close the week out.  

My smart guys are saying carefully float.  What that means is this- get an application in (with me or whoever you want to think about using) and be ready to hit the trigger if market conditions warrant.  I'd love to help you through PM, 832-557-1095 cell or email me at gabekmg@gmail.com if you are looking to do something.  As usual, more risk of a big move to the worse than a big move to the better. Thus the clarifying word carefully in carefully floating.  

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So I just looked at another zillow-owned listing.  This is the 5th or 6th one that I've looked at.  
These guys have a real knack for buying overpriced properties in shit areas, and trying to flip them for about 20% more than they are worth.  They've gotta be losing their shirts out here. 

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58 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

So I just looked at another zillow-owned listing.  This is the 5th or 6th one that I've looked at.  
These guys have a real knack for buying overpriced properties in shit areas, and trying to flip them for about 20% more than they are worth.  They've gotta be losing their shirts out here. 

Sure do hope so. 
I’ve only seen them on 2 deals. They were 100% what you said. 
lose, baby lose. Fuck yo algorithm 

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15 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so guys, how's the Austin market nowadays? normal seasonal cooling, significant slow down, same-same...?

we're about 5-6 mos out from listing (ahem 😊 lol)...seems like the thread chatter definitely fell off. 

They are still going in a single weekend and over list but instead of 10-15 offers per house its more like 2-3.

That being said, my neighbor’s house just had 18 offers and sold for $115k over list in Northwest Hills so there are  select areas around town that are still hot.

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16 hours ago, mchookem said:

so guys, how's the Austin market nowadays? normal seasonal cooling, significant slow down, same-same...?

we're about 5-6 mos out from listing (ahem 😊 lol)...seems like the thread chatter definitely fell off. 

Pricing is still holding good, market just slows around now as most people move over summer to have their kids lined up for their new schools.  Come March and April of next year things will heat back up..

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On 10/5/2021 at 7:26 PM, Gil Bang said:

So I just looked at another zillow-owned listing.  This is the 5th or 6th one that I've looked at.  
These guys have a real knack for buying overpriced properties in shit areas, and trying to flip them for about 20% more than they are worth.  They've gotta be losing their shirts out here. 

I don’t know how the Zillow buying houses works but my friend in DFW just sold 3 houses to them in the past 6 months (he never sold his old houses but kept upgrading to a better house and renting out the older ones over the last 15 years). He finally decided to cash out.  He said Zillow offered him way more than he was going to price them at and it was really easy to deal with them.  For what it’s worth.

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20 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I don’t know how the Zillow buying houses works but my friend in DFW just sold 3 houses to them in the past 6 months (he never sold his old houses but kept upgrading to a better house and renting out the older ones over the last 15 years). He finally decided to cash out.  He said Zillow offered him way more than he was going to price them at and it was really easy to deal with them.  For what it’s worth.

That kind of lines up with the above.  The problem with what they're doing is they're putting lipstick on a pig and then listing for 20% more.  But if you're just trying to get out and want a quick deal on the sell to them side it's not the worst.

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42 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I don’t know how the Zillow buying houses works but my friend in DFW just sold 3 houses to them in the past 6 months (he never sold his old houses but kept upgrading to a better house and renting out the older ones over the last 15 years). He finally decided to cash out.  He said Zillow offered him way more than he was going to price them at and it was really easy to deal with them.  For what it’s worth.

This man is a smart man (at least in renting his houses). Wish I’d done the same, and wish we would have moved every 12-24 months. 

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1 minute ago, UT_OB1 said:

This man is a smart man (at least in renting his houses). Wish I’d done the same, and wish we would have moved every 12-24 months. 

The guy dropped out of high school at 15 but yes he is crazy smart.  He now lives in a house worth close to 2 million on a lake here in DFW.  You gotta be willing to keep your equity in each house you owned and most people need that for the next house but yes, his way was the right way if you can do it.

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1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I don’t know how the Zillow buying houses works but my friend in DFW just sold 3 houses to them in the past 6 months (he never sold his old houses but kept upgrading to a better house and renting out the older ones over the last 15 years). He finally decided to cash out.  He said Zillow offered him way more than he was going to price them at and it was really easy to deal with them.  For what it’s worth.

 

42 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

That kind of lines up with the above.  The problem with what they're doing is they're putting lipstick on a pig and then listing for 20% more.  But if you're just trying to get out and want a quick deal on the sell to them side it's not the worst.

Yeah, I don't get it either, and to me, it smells like some kind of Wall Street hijinks.  

They are straight-up paying too much for houses. And then they are listing them for too much.  Are they holding them on the books as assets valued at their asking prices?   I'm not shitting y'all.  I've looked at total dogshit that's priced over the top of the market. 

And Beantown, it sounds to me like your buddy made a smart play.  If I'm a good realtor and I tell you that your house is worth X, and zillow wants to give you more than you would net from my price, you're crazy not to take it. 

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