All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Biff Tannen 45751]

Dumb question amnesty: why would a seller have an acceptance deadline of 11am and then just blow right through it and do whatever they want?  I busted my ass getting a loan pre-approval in like 24 hours to meet that deadline and I've just been sitting on my porch all day like a goon waiting.

[LCHorn 2633]

40 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Dumb question amnesty: why would a seller have an acceptance deadline of 11am and then just blow right through it and do whatever they want?  I busted my ass getting a loan pre-approval in like 24 hours to meet that deadline and I've just been sitting on my porch all day like a goon waiting.

I hope I’m wrong here, but typically when you don’t hear anything it’s because they are evaluating other offers.  

[UTPhil2006 3818]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Dumb question amnesty: why would a seller have an acceptance deadline of 11am and then just blow right through it and do whatever they want?  I busted my ass getting a loan pre-approval in like 24 hours to meet that deadline and I've just been sitting on my porch all day like a goon waiting.

Depends how many offers they had to sift through and if they’re telling people in a more detailed manner it may take a bit. That or they’re just slow and lazy. Could be a lot of reasons why

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

Because they can in this market. We 

[Neonmoon 38130]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They probably originated like 550,000 mortgages last year.  That sounds like a lot on one hand.  On the other hand I think Quicken did like 2,000,000 last year. I'm guessing they were both up a fair bit from 2020 with those numbers, in 2021. I'm sure they are getting killed in this market. 

Our call said the entire industry will be down 40% this year. No refis and little inventory for purchases. Bloodbath 
 

[Neonmoon 38130]

3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

WF was also crappy in almost every facet of the mortgage process so no love lost here. Better for all of y’all and me. 

I am doing a mortgage for a WF regional VP right now. Pretty sure there’s a good reason he didn’t go in house. 

[Biff Tannen 45751]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Depends how many offers they had to sift through and if they’re telling people in a more detailed manner it may take a bit. That or they’re just slow and lazy. Could be a lot of reasons why

Well yesterday they claimed they had two offers besides mine. I suppose it could have been a frenzy yesterday, but seems unlikely. This is in southwest Colorado. 

[Biff Tannen 45751]

1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Well yesterday they claimed they had two offers besides mine. I suppose it could have been a frenzy yesterday, but seems unlikely. This is in southwest Colorado. 

Bah. Went with a cash offer. Gotta be loaded to get into the market these days. Oh well. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

There are programs out there, depending on state, that will convert your offer to cash for a fee. Ribbon is in my state. Not Colorado though 

[UTPhil2006 3818]

Oh hello Monday morning 13 basis point drop.  

[Neonmoon 38130]

I would like the reprieve more if one of my people got under contract today

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I would like the reprieve more if one of my people got under contract today

Got 2 under today (who knew a buyer could get an offer accepted in this market) so that was nice. 

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

Same caveat as always- this is not a guarantee to lend.  This is not the rates we are putting actual human beings in at right now (we are typically better but I also just locked someone at 6 who was happy to have it- so situations are different blah blah blah.  But this is the actual average of interest rates for all deals locked on Friday afternoon.  Yikes.  

 

30-YR. CONFORMING

5.405% +0.038

30-YR. JUMBO

4.951% +0.090

30-YR. FHA

5.259% +0.047

30-YR. VA

5.096% +0.064

30-YR. USDA

5.215% +0.087

15-YR. CONFORMING

4.540% +0.083

[Neonmoon 38130]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Got 2 under today (who knew a buyer could get an offer accepted in this market) so that was nice. 

You lucky son of a bitch. Cheers

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

Good news is mortgage backed securities are up 50 points today (up is good in MBS) which should lower rates about 1/8 of a point from previous close.  Hopefully this is the ceiling and it's all down hill from here.

To that end, my crystal ball guys say maybe things get a little better now- maybe a little worse, but they think that interest rates will peak no later than October and then they will come down for the rest of the year with room to come down much more if we get the recession they figure we have coming in 2023 Q1. FWIW .

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

Just now, Neonmoon said:

You lucky son of a bitch. Cheers

I mean, who knew you had to move all the way out to Flatonia to make that happen in one instance? One of them was a first time buyer, so that was pretty cool... Love seeing those guys get a contract in. 

[Skipper 6210]

Random question for you real estate folk.    Currently in middle of fixing up my existing rental property in Dallas after my POS renters left it in bad shape.  I have a buddy that can put on MLS and will have a lockbox.  Going to list for sale or lease soon.  From an investment perspective, I think it makes sense to continue leasing (has been leased for past 5.5 years and it has appreciated, and likely will continue to appreciate, considerably) but I'll also probably allow someone to pay me tip top of market to take it off my hands as it's been a big burden since a few months into COVID with a shit tenant and eviction hurdles.  The thought of no longer dealing with it is appealing.

So my question:  is there a certain "day" of the week realtors typically prefer to drop new listings?  Or does it really matter?  Was wondering if it's industry standard to drop listings on a Friday so people can focus over the weekend.  It's kind of coming together at a bad time as it's probably going to be ready by early to mid next week but I leave for vacation with fam for a week that Saturday (Disney) so won't be able to give my full attention to negotiations.   Just trying to come up with a game plan.

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

16 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Random question for you real estate folk.    Currently in middle of fixing up my existing rental property in Dallas after my POS renters left it in bad shape.  I have a buddy that can put on MLS and will have a lockbox.  Going to list for sale or lease soon.  From an investment perspective, I think it makes sense to continue leasing (has been leased for past 5.5 years and it has appreciated, and likely will continue to appreciate, considerably) but I'll also probably allow someone to pay me tip top of market to take it off my hands as it's been a big burden since a few months into COVID with a shit tenant and eviction hurdles.  The thought of no longer dealing with it is appealing.

So my question:  is there a certain "day" of the week realtors typically prefer to drop new listings?  Or does it really matter?  Was wondering if it's industry standard to drop listings on a Friday so people can focus over the weekend.  It's kind of coming together at a bad time as it's probably going to be ready by early to mid next week but I leave for vacation with fam for a week that Saturday (Disney) so won't be able to give my full attention to negotiations.   Just trying to come up with a game plan.

Tuesday man, the answer is always Tuesday. How long have you been around here?  

That's mostly a joke but Friday seems too late to me- want to go with earlier in the week so people have enough time to put it on their weekend schedule of places to see.  That said in this market I think it doesn't freaking matter- hang a sign and you will probably have 3 offers overnight. It's hard to fuck up a  listing right now I would think. 

[Muny_Tex 298]

I’m not an industry professional, but reached same crossroads with my rental in Austin recently (decided to keep it leased for variety of reasons)

My would-be agent said he almost always pushing to list on Thurs PM, so it’ll catch buyers eyes quickly if scouring the apps and also allow a full business day for agents to inquire and schedule showings through the weekend (or facilitate an open house if that’s your thing).

I believe continuation of that strategy then allows for final clarifying questions to occur Sunday evening; with offer deadlines by COB Mon (or Tues at latest) to allow all interested bidders another business day to get ducks in a row for proof of funds and/or updated pre-qual letters as needed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Skipper 6210]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Tuesday man, the answer is always Tuesday. How long have you been around here?  

That's mostly a joke but Friday seems too late to me- want to go with earlier in the week so people have enough time to put it on their weekend schedule of places to see.  That said in this market I think it doesn't freaking matter- hang a sign and you will probably have 3 offers overnight. It's hard to fuck up a  listing right now I would think. 

Thanks.  Yeah, I think you are right.   It's really my vacation aspect that's bogging me down as in a perfect world it's under contract one way or another before I leave but with repairs more than anticipated timing's not lining up.  Half tempted to just list it before leaving and basically make it known that anyone can submit best offer for lease or rent then I'll evaluate when I'm back.

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

2 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

I’m not an industry professional, but reached same crossroads with my rental in Austin recently (decided to keep it leased for variety of reasons)

My would-be agent said he almost always pushing to list on Thurs PM, so it’ll catch buyers eyes quickly if scouring the apps and also allow a full business day for agents to inquire and schedule showings through the weekend (or facilitate an open house if that’s your thing).

I believe continuation of that strategy then allows for final clarifying questions to occur Sunday evening; with offer deadlines by COB Mon (or Tues at latest) to allow all interested bidders another business day to get ducks in a row for proof of funds and/or updated pre-qual letters as needed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was joking on Tuesday but was wondering if Thursday was the day or Wednesday b/c Friday intuitively seemed too late to get the maximum eyeballs over the weekend.  Thursday at 5:00 sounds about right. 

Edited April 25, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[LCHorn 2633]

Ditto on Thursday

[Esque 135]

The Good: We finally found a home after searching for 18 months and putting in just shy of 15 offers.

The Bad: The husband refused to fully execute the contract last second, stating that he just couldn't sell the house they raised their family in.

The Ugly: I laughed hysterically when we got the call because our search has been such a shit show, of course this would happen.  The wife cried and was upset all night.

On to the next one.  The great news is there were only five offers on the home, whereas prior homes have had anywhere from 25 - 50 offers.  So seems to be cooling down quite a bit. 

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Good news is mortgage backed securities are up 50 points today (up is good in MBS) which should lower rates about 1/8 of a point from previous close.  Hopefully this is the ceiling and it's all down hill from here. .

I'm curious, what do you think happens to rates as Fed begins QT in the open market and floods it with the MBS they purchased over the last two years?  Presumably this is already priced in?  Or not necessarily?

Edited April 25, 2022 by Esque

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

40 minutes ago, Esque said:

The Good: We finally found a home after searching for 18 months and putting in just shy of 15 offers.

The Bad: The husband refused to fully execute the contract last second, stating that he just couldn't sell the house they raised their family in.

The Ugly: I laughed hysterically when we got the call because our search has been such a shit show, of course this would happen.  The wife cried and was upset all night.

On to the next one.  The great news is there were only five offers on the home, whereas prior homes have had anywhere from 25 - 50 offers.  So seems to be cooling down quite a bit. 

I'm curious, what do you think happens to rates as Fed begins QT in the open market and floods it with the MBS they purchased over the last two years?  Presumably this is already priced in?  Or not necessarily?

That’s the question man. I have no idea. Fed raising interest rates will absolutely push rate pressure down on your home- it’s counter intuitive to many but it’s just what happens,  jt that’s going to be offset by what they do with their asset sheet. 
Anyone that says they know exactly where that’s going to intersect with the real world is lying to you man, straight up. 

[UTPhil2006 3818]

2 hours ago, Skipper said:

Random question for you real estate folk.    Currently in middle of fixing up my existing rental property in Dallas after my POS renters left it in bad shape.  I have a buddy that can put on MLS and will have a lockbox.  Going to list for sale or lease soon.  From an investment perspective, I think it makes sense to continue leasing (has been leased for past 5.5 years and it has appreciated, and likely will continue to appreciate, considerably) but I'll also probably allow someone to pay me tip top of market to take it off my hands as it's been a big burden since a few months into COVID with a shit tenant and eviction hurdles.  The thought of no longer dealing with it is appealing.

So my question:  is there a certain "day" of the week realtors typically prefer to drop new listings?  Or does it really matter?  Was wondering if it's industry standard to drop listings on a Friday so people can focus over the weekend.  It's kind of coming together at a bad time as it's probably going to be ready by early to mid next week but I leave for vacation with fam for a week that Saturday (Disney) so won't be able to give my full attention to negotiations.   Just trying to come up with a game plan.

Thursday is usually the preferred date.  It stays on the Hot Sheet through the weekend in most MLS, sets it up for the weekend, and has it ready for Friday when most showings will start.

[Gil Bang 26061]

19 hours ago, Skipper said:

Random question for you real estate folk.    Currently in middle of fixing up my existing rental property in Dallas after my POS renters left it in bad shape.  I have a buddy that can put on MLS and will have a lockbox.  Going to list for sale or lease soon.  From an investment perspective, I think it makes sense to continue leasing (has been leased for past 5.5 years and it has appreciated, and likely will continue to appreciate, considerably) but I'll also probably allow someone to pay me tip top of market to take it off my hands as it's been a big burden since a few months into COVID with a shit tenant and eviction hurdles.  The thought of no longer dealing with it is appealing.

So my question:  is there a certain "day" of the week realtors typically prefer to drop new listings?  Or does it really matter?  Was wondering if it's industry standard to drop listings on a Friday so people can focus over the weekend.  It's kind of coming together at a bad time as it's probably going to be ready by early to mid next week but I leave for vacation with fam for a week that Saturday (Disney) so won't be able to give my full attention to negotiations.   Just trying to come up with a game plan.

List on Monday,  and spell out "no showings until Saturday, April X (whatever date).  That way, the house is drawing attention and getting drive-bys, and hopefully, you'll have a lot of showings on Saturday which should result in better offers. 

Have you ever considered moving into the home for a couple of years so you can enjoy the tax exemption?

[Skipper 6210]

11 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

List on Monday,  and spell out "no showings until Saturday, April X (whatever date).  That way, the house is drawing attention and getting drive-bys, and hopefully, you'll have a lot of showings on Saturday which should result in better offers. 

Have you ever considered moving into the home for a couple of years so you can enjoy the tax exemption?

Thanks.  I lived in it for 6+ then moved into a bigger house about a mile away 5.5 years ago. So while well aware of that rule, I now have kids that are 3 and 5 and we've done a lot of work on our current house to really enjoy it.  So zero chance it would be worth the hassle to save on capital gains.  I had it under contract in 2016 and it fell apart over repair dispute.  That ended up being a huge W as we should easily get $200K more than it was under contract for if I decide to sell and likely over $250K.  So even with capital gains, I'm in a bit of a house money situation from that perspective.   I also have no problem continuing to rent it out if I don't get the right offer.   That would probably be my strong preference if I didn't have the added stress of dealing with a shit tenant situation the past 2 years.  

[UTPhil2006 3818]

On 4/25/2022 at 9:19 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Oh hello Monday morning 13 basis point drop.  

Gave back about half of this yesterday, but then got back all of that and a couple more points this morning.  So still much better than where we sat Friday.

[StruggleBus 3922]

On 4/22/2022 at 7:40 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

New buyers are hosed beyond belief. It’s a real problem for the cities and their attempt to be liveable for younger and/or poorer people. 

i think I read somewhere that At the average savings rate it would take the average American 20+ years to save up the minimum down payment for a house. 
Homeownership is so vital to the American dream. When I see the data on despair of renters that believe they will never own it’s a bummer bc that’s implicit thought that the America we love isn’t available to them in their mind. 

Today's children will be a generation of renters, outside of high earners and those that inherit homes. 

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

1 minute ago, StruggleBus said:

Today's children will be a generation of renters, outside of high earners and those that inherit homes. 

That’s a problem it’s an existential threat to the America that always was. 

[Sam Lin 3564]

12 hours ago, Skipper said:

 I also have no problem continuing to rent it out if I don't get the right offer.   That would probably be my strong preference if I didn't have the added stress of dealing with a shit tenant situation the past 2 years.  

Really sounds like you need to hand it to a management company. They take care of all the bullshit for 10-20% cost, you just get money and a tax statement.

[Esque 135]

21 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s a problem it’s an existential threat to the America that always was. 

Completely agree with this.

Part of this, unfortunately, is simple economics.  The home building industry has consolidated over the last several decades and thus is more of an enterprise endeavor these days.  You'd still be shocked at how inefficient it is, but is is all on a relative basis in that it is more efficient than it once was.  Over time, the largest home builders ("nationals", "publics") have figured out the obvious, which is incremental square feet via an office, dining room, and/or fourth bedroom is accretive to the bottom line because the fit-out of these spaces is limited, i.e. just more lumber and dry wall.  So the house that used to be a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,500 sq. ft. home is now 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2,600 sq. ft.  This has made the median house less affordable to the median household income.  But is accretive to the home builders.

Another part of this is competition on the home building side.  The Global Financial Crisis wiped out a lot of the local and regional home builders who didn't have the balance sheets to weather the storm.  Yes, the nationals and publics got hammered, but they had the balance sheet to weather the storm.  So an even larger percentage of overall production is through a fewer number of builders who increasingly control the market, especially on the land side.

Capital markets has also accelerated this trend during covid-19 as office and retail, which have been favored for capital allocators due to cheque size, are obviously much more risky and are out of favor.  Thus, more capital than every is flooding into multifamily, industrial, and residential.  Capital allocators are buying up houses in lots from home builders and renting them out.  Thus, the number of homes available to end users is that much less and thus competition is driven up.  Would guess somewhere between 1 out of 4 or 5 homes today are purchased by investors.  I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon unless we completely roll back time and everyone is back in the office full time - unlikely.

Without going on too much longer, let's never forget the increase on soft costs and politics of dealing with the city.  This is a newer phenomenon and is getting worse and worse.  But will leave that alone for now beyond stating the obvious, that is limits new supply.

As a result of this, and many other considerations, you will have more and more households renting.  It is just a reality.  And completely agree it is bad for society.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

11 minutes ago, Esque said:

Completely agree with this.

Part of this, unfortunately, is simple economics.  The home building industry has consolidated over the last several decades and thus is more of an enterprise endeavor these days.  You'd still be shocked at how inefficient it is, but is is all on a relative basis in that it is more efficient than it once was.  Over time, the largest home builders ("nationals", "publics") have figured out the obvious, which is incremental square feet via an office, dining room, and/or fourth bedroom is accretive to the bottom line because the fit-out of these spaces is limited, i.e. just more lumber and dry wall.  So the house that used to be a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,500 sq. ft. home is now 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2,600 sq. ft.  This has made the median house less affordable to the median household income.  But is accretive to the home builders.

Another part of this is competition on the home building side.  The Global Financial Crisis wiped out a lot of the local and regional home builders who didn't have the balance sheets to weather the storm.  Yes, the nationals and publics got hammered, but they had the balance sheet to weather the storm.  So an even larger percentage of overall production is through a fewer number of builders who increasingly control the market, especially on the land side.

Capital markets has also accelerated this trend during covid-19 as office and retail, which have been favored for capital allocators due to cheque size, are obviously much more risky and are out of favor.  Thus, more capital than every is flooding into multifamily, industrial, and residential.  Capital allocators are buying up houses in lots from home builders and renting them out.  Thus, the number of homes available to end users is that much less and thus competition is driven up.  Would guess somewhere between 1 out of 4 or 5 homes today are purchased by investors.  I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon unless we completely roll back time and everyone is back in the office full time - unlikely.

Without going on too much longer, let's never forget the increase on soft costs and politics of dealing with the city.  This is a newer phenomenon and is getting worse and worse.  But will leave that alone for now beyond stating the obvious, that is limits new supply.

As a result of this, and many other considerations, you will have more and more households renting.  It is just a reality.  And completely agree it is bad for society.

 

As an additional factor giving big builders the competitive advantage over little guys is the vertices those guys have created. 
sales reps that make much less than a realtors. Mortgage guys that they just basically flat out require the customer to use/ that are owned by the builders, as well as builders owning title companies. The builders that are big enough in scale to pull this off now have 3 profit centers instead of one (sale of actual house, mortgage and title) as well as decreased costs (costs to sell the actual house in commissions and closing costs that they refuse to pay). 
In essence that’s another $10,000 plus coming into their project with every sale they make and what- maybe 9 or 10 less going out the door? 
so, in addition to all the other advantages they make an extra $20k per transaction. That’s not nothing man. 

Edited April 27, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[closetohumping 17486]

On 4/25/2022 at 12:27 PM, Skipper said:

Random question for you real estate folk.    Currently in middle of fixing up my existing rental property in Dallas after my POS renters left it in bad shape.  I have a buddy that can put on MLS and will have a lockbox.  Going to list for sale or lease soon.  From an investment perspective, I think it makes sense to continue leasing (has been leased for past 5.5 years and it has appreciated, and likely will continue to appreciate, considerably) but I'll also probably allow someone to pay me tip top of market to take it off my hands as it's been a big burden since a few months into COVID with a shit tenant and eviction hurdles.  The thought of no longer dealing with it is appealing.

So my question:  is there a certain "day" of the week realtors typically prefer to drop new listings?  Or does it really matter?  Was wondering if it's industry standard to drop listings on a Friday so people can focus over the weekend.  It's kind of coming together at a bad time as it's probably going to be ready by early to mid next week but I leave for vacation with fam for a week that Saturday (Disney) so won't be able to give my full attention to negotiations.   Just trying to come up with a game plan.

KInd of in the same boat as I am leaving California but would love to rent out my place.  Seems like too big of a headache and I can reinvest my money elsewhere.  

 

Hard to want to buy with interest rates rising.  A couple of local realtors have said it's not quite as crazy as it's been the last few years, so could the market be softening.  Should the rise of interest rates slow down home prices?

[closetohumping 17486]

22 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s a problem it’s an existential threat to the America that always was. 

I'm all about making as much as you can "and gettin yours," but this is an issue for sure.  Saddens me.

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

22 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

KInd of in the same boat as I am leaving California but would love to rent out my place.  Seems like too big of a headache and I can reinvest my money elsewhere.  

 

Hard to want to buy with interest rates rising.  A couple of local realtors have said it's not quite as crazy as it's been the last few years, so could the market be softening.  Should the rise of interest rates slow down home prices?

Rising interest rates will slow down demand but it will also slow surprise. Let’s say you were a smart person living in California that nailed the timing on their last refinance and got in at a rate in the high 2’s (I know- crazy hard for you to imagine such a scenario- right?). How much desire will you have to sell your house you are paying 2.X on?  Seems crazy and wasteful to walk away from that rate today, right?

Those decisions will depress supply. Supply is more important, imo, than interest rates in setting house price. 

[tokamak 6443]

It's an interesting discussion. Just the other day on the Houston subreddit there was a thread full of people bitching about developers buying lots, clearing the house, and building 4 townhomes on the lot. That's become very common inside the loop in Houston. But then on the flip side of the coin, Reddit is literally full of 20-somethings bitching about the cost of housing (rightly so). I think there's a big disconnect there because IMO every single unit that gets built is a good thing for housing costs. But of course nobody wants it to happen in their neighborhood.

[Skipper 6210]

9 hours ago, Sam Lin said:

Really sounds like you need to hand it to a management company. They take care of all the bullshit for 10-20% cost, you just get money and a tax statement.

It was Covid related.  They started having financial issues that were not COVID related, then realized with all the BS eviction restrictions in place, there wasn't shit I could do about it.  So it was more wasting my time keeping the pressure on, navigating eviction restrictions including an actual hearing where I tried to get them out via non-payment related violations, and more importantly, navigating the bureaucratic "rent relief" programs in order to get paid.  Very long story short, was paid over $60K in tax payer dollars over the last 16 months of their lease but it took a ton of time, emails, phone calls, etc.    

[Skipper 6210]

50 minutes ago, Esque said:

Would guess somewhere between 1 out of 4 or 5 homes today are purchased by investors.  I don't see this trend reversing anytime soon unless we completely roll back time and everyone is back in the office full time - unlikely.

 

I'm somehow on a "list" from when I put my house on the market 5+ years ago.  I get 5-10 calls/texts per week from "investors".  Annoying as hell.    

[Skipper 6210]

33 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

KInd of in the same boat as I am leaving California but would love to rent out my place.  Seems like too big of a headache and I can reinvest my money elsewhere.  

 

My lessons learned were first to pick better tenants.  They were actually fine for 3+ years but there were some red flags and their financial situation deteriorated right when Covid hit (and unrelated to Covid). Then, once we were in a dispute, they just stopped giving a shit about my house.   If I do rent it out I'm going to do a much better job of "inspections" and staying on top of them for house and yard maintenance.   But eviction laws, particularly during COVID, are just too tenant friendly.  You need to find people that would be mortified of going through that.

[closetohumping 17486]

21 minutes ago, Skipper said:

My lessons learned were first to pick better tenants.  They were actually fine for 3+ years but there were some red flags and their financial situation deteriorated right when Covid hit (and unrelated to Covid). Then, once we were in a dispute, they just stopped giving a shit about my house.   If I do rent it out I'm going to do a much better job of "inspections" and staying on top of them for house and yard maintenance.   But eviction laws, particularly during COVID, are just too tenant friendly.  You need to find people that would be mortified of going through that.

I think my concern is even some people with the means to pay won't pay during a pandemic, and let's be real, another is coming at some point.  They justify it by saying "if nobody else is paying, why should I?  Yes, I have money......for now......besides the govt will reimburse you right?"  

 

On the better tenants issue, that's funny.  I used to work with landlords in west campus and they basically said "bring me the foreign students, not the frat boys."  I've also heard of tenants intentionally wrecking shit (cement in the washer), graffiti, etc after you ask them to leave.  And not all of these stories are from section 8 poors.

31 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It was Covid related.  They started having financial issues that were not COVID related, then realized with all the BS eviction restrictions in place, there wasn't shit I could do about it.  So it was more wasting my time keeping the pressure on, navigating eviction restrictions including an actual hearing where I tried to get them out via non-payment related violations, and more importantly, navigating the bureaucratic "rent relief" programs in order to get paid.  Very long story short, was paid over $60K in tax payer dollars over the last 16 months of their lease but it took a ton of time, emails, phone calls, etc.    

At least you got the cash, but still infuriating. 

[closetohumping 17486]

35 minutes ago, tokamak said:

It's an interesting discussion. Just the other day on the Houston subreddit there was a thread full of people bitching about developers buying lots, clearing the house, and building 4 townhomes on the lot. That's become very common inside the loop in Houston. But then on the flip side of the coin, Reddit is literally full of 20-somethings bitching about the cost of housing (rightly so). I think there's a big disconnect there because IMO every single unit that gets built is a good thing for housing costs. But of course nobody wants it to happen in their neighborhood.

I'd rather they put townhouses in.  SFH with a nice yard is not a right in this world.

[Neonmoon 38130]

Supply v Demand

The housing market is underbuilt for the past decade. As previously noted, many of the non-big builders got wiped out in great recession. Something like 50% of them were wiped out. Population continued to grow. People didn't stop fucking. 

Gen X had less people than Millennials, and Millennials are entering their prime house buying years. It's going to get worse. 

Not everyone will get the 3/2 house with a yard anymore. Same with not everyone will get the blue collar factory job without a college degree. Days are over

(just had a borrower have their 5th rejected offer. Fun times)

 

[jimmyjazz 46306]

Rising interest rates will likely suppress demand and supply.  Fewer buyers can afford the higher rates, and fewer sellers will want to flip and move.

I read a story today where the year-over-year estimate for home price growth going forward is "only" 8%.  Historically, that's a good year.  Could they be wrong?  Sure.  Would I bet on it?  No.

[Gil Bang 26061]

3 hours ago, closetohumping said:

KInd of in the same boat as I am leaving California but would love to rent out my place.  Seems like too big of a headache and I can reinvest my money elsewhere.  

 

Hard to want to buy with interest rates rising.  A couple of local realtors have said it's not quite as crazy as it's been the last few years, so could the market be softening.  Should the rise of interest rates slow down home prices?

If you decide to sell, I can help you with that.

[Gil Bang 26061]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

As an additional factor giving big builders the competitive advantage over little guys is the vertices those guys have created. 
sales reps that make much less than a realtors. Mortgage guys that they just basically flat out require the customer to use/ that are owned by the builders, as well as builders owning title companies. The builders that are big enough in scale to pull this off now have 3 profit centers instead of one (sale of actual house, mortgage and title) as well as decreased costs (costs to sell the actual house in commissions and closing costs that they refuse to pay). 
In essence that’s another $10,000 plus coming into their project with every sale they make and what- maybe 9 or 10 less going out the door? 
so, in addition to all the other advantages they make an extra $20k per transaction. That’s not nothing man. 

Spot on. 

[closetohumping 17486]

2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

If you decide to sell, I can help you with that.

Appreciated, but I have a realtor already.  Unless you're referring to something else.  Message me if you want.  

[South Austin 52642]

6 hours ago, Esque said:

Over time, the largest home builders ("nationals", "publics") have figured out the obvious, which is incremental square feet via an office, dining room, and/or fourth bedroom is accretive to the bottom line because the fit-out of these spaces is limited, i.e. just more lumber and dry wall.  So the house that used to be a 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 1,500 sq. ft. home is now 4 bedroom, 2 bathroom, 2,600 sq. ft.  This has made the median house less affordable to the median household income.  But is accretive to the home builders.

On this point, at least one homebuilder is considering building a smaller product.  It may be just lip service, but we'll see.

Quote

During its earnings call on Tuesday, D.R. Horton executives brought up the possibility of offering a smaller home size to stay within the affordability range. Should this move come, it wouldn’t be a significant change from what the company offers today, they noted.

The company is committed to staying in the affordable range and working towards buyers in that category, said Co-COO Paul Romanowski. 

Link

[mchookem 16415]

well guys

we're about to see first hand if the Austin market has cooled off any...

lol

will advise 🤞🤘

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

10 minutes ago, mchookem said:

well guys

we're about to see first hand if the Austin market has cooled off any...

lol

will advise 🤞🤘

Good luck. Anecdotally I think it has cooled off some.  You might only compete with 10 offers instead of 30, and might only have to pay 50k over instead of 100k.  Good luck!  I've actually had 3 people get under contract in the last week and a half in the greater Austin area- it can be done!