All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

32 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My mother got quoted 5.375 and no origination yesterday from a credit union.  Guy also said 120 day lock was available. I initially advised her to hold off since she doesn’t have a property, but maybe I should reverse course?

On a 120 day lock- with no property?

Do it. Do it now! 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

14 minutes ago, BillyMadison said:

I can say in the pockets of Dallas we’re looking, the number of offers has slowed in the past few weeks from 10+ to 2 or 3. Also, we were losing to people bidding 20% or so over ask, and now we’re only losing to people bidding 5-10% over ask. Now, asking prices may be up too, but feels less frothy than a month ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

This is my sense as well. 

[gmr548 16,576]

so higher rates should lead to lower prices?  Maybe?

There’s still a fundamental supply shortage that no amount of rate hiking can address.

Rates increasing may slow prices increases, but I doubt they come down in any meaningful way. Certainly not in strong markets. Add to that, most people are buying a payment, not a sticker price. Rates sure as fuck aren’t helping with that.

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Look at these fucking assholes. Redfin has this as their 30 yr fixed rate right now on their website. 

 

Yeah- I don’t know if I’m buying that at all. I think there is some fuckery about. 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Just heard Guaranteed Rate cut all LO's to 85 bps. They said it was company wide, but who knows. 

Also let go 30% of back office

 

Edited May 6, 2022 by Neonmoon

[Beantown Express 2.0 6,559]

33 minutes ago, BillyMadison said:

I can say in the pockets of Dallas we’re looking, the number of offers has slowed in the past few weeks from 10+ to 2 or 3. Also, we were losing to people bidding 20% or so over ask, and now we’re only losing to people bidding 5-10% over ask. Now, asking prices may be up too, but feels less frothy than a month ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I can tell you this hasn’t hit the builders yet.  I have been waiting 2 years for a lake lot in my neighborhood in Dallas and they just emailed me yesterday they are about to start building on them and I am #1 on a list over 150 people so far so I get first pick.  Unfortunately, they also notified me the price of a 3000 sq ft home is now $995K versus the $650K it was 8 months ago.  Add in the $325K lot premium and the $100K “special payment so we will build your home for you” and they priced me out of my dream home.  I know, first world problems.  Still pisses me off.

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Just heard Guaranteed Rate cut all LO's to 85 bps. They said it was company wide, but who knows. 

Also let go 30% of back office

 

Damn.  Guess that's what they get for sponsoring the White Sox stadium

[StruggleBus 3,922]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

buying a payment, not a sticker price

[UT_OB1 2,220]

Should I expect a 10% interest rate by the time a reFi a small multifamily/commercial  property we are rehabbing? Hopefully prices don’t plummet because we estimated ARV on numbers back in September 

[tokamak 6,427]

So is houses selling for above asking just the norm now and forevermore? It seems like the bid/offer paradigm has flipped 180 degrees from what it historically has been. I guess realtors have decided that it's better to generate interest by pricing below market value rather than aim high at first?

[Neonmoon 38,129]

2 minutes ago, tokamak said:

So is houses selling for above asking just the norm now and forevermore? It seems like the bid/offer paradigm has flipped 180 degrees from what it historically has been. I guess realtors have decided that it's better to generate interest by pricing below market value rather than aim high at first?

It is the current norm because there is a shortage of supply, and thus a sellers market. Higher interest rates will cool down the market some but the supply issue is still there, so I doubt it swings wildly back to a buyers market, but hopefully keeps amount of offers and over ask to a minimum 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

5 minutes ago, tokamak said:

So is houses selling for above asking just the norm now and forevermore? It seems like the bid/offer paradigm has flipped 180 degrees from what it historically has been. I guess realtors have decided that it's better to generate interest by pricing below market value rather than aim high at first?

I’m not sold on the idea that pricing it below market to drive interest actually ends up in higher sales prices. You could put a for sale sign in your front yard right now and get $30k over asking. 
 

 

[tokamak 6,427]

15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It is the current norm because there is a shortage of supply, and thus a sellers market. Higher interest rates will cool down the market some but the supply issue is still there, so I doubt it swings wildly back to a buyers market, but hopefully keeps amount of offers and over ask to a minimum 

I guess my point is, any house that sells for above asking price is by definition priced below market value. It's become extremely common because the market is so hot, but sellers could also just...list at a higher price.

14 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

I’m not sold on the idea that pricing it below market to drive interest actually ends up in higher sales prices. You could put a for sale sign in your front yard right now and get $30k over asking.

I agree with your first sentence - I'm not at all convinced of that, either. Don't understand what you mean with the 2nd sentence.

[MAUFRAIS 6,624]

Why not just say “house for sale - now accepting offers” and see what happens?

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

15 minutes ago, tokamak said:

I guess my point is, any house that sells for above asking price is by definition priced below market value. It's become extremely common because the market is so hot, but sellers could also just...list at a higher price.

I agree with your first sentence - I'm not at all convinced of that, either. Don't understand what you mean with the 2nd sentence.

We priced our house at the top end of recently sold comps and still getting over ask.  Feels like right now the standard is to offer above ask out of the gate unless it is obscenely priced.  

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

I think the key to the over asking market is enough buyers with enough cash that they can cover the overage of the appraised value- and/or enough cash buyers that an appraisal isn’t even needed. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

anybody else sitting on a 2.5% 30 year fixed?

[Hefeweizen 5,320]

5 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Where you headed?   Good luck man.  We’re looking in august but if rates go up I’ll likely wait it out

Lol California.  I am prepared with my anus.

[We’reTexas 1,473]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

Lol California.  I am prepared with my anus.

Jesus, good luck. We were thinking about looking but the rate hike has made buying unfeasible. 

[Mother mopar 3,318]

anybody else sitting on a 2.5% 30 year fixed?

So glad I got in late last year in the mid-2s, I'm very fortunate and count my blessings.

[Mach 1 1,677]

6 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

anybody else sitting on a 2.5% 30 year fixed?

Nope.  2.75 on a 15 year fixed.

Nine years in, monthly principal 85%, interest 15%

I feel bad for people having to deal with this market, it's brutally expensive.  Very fortunate I had a buddy hook us up with JP Morgan Private Mortgage when we closed this bad boy REFI way back when.  I've lived through really high interest rates, and when I saw that 2.75, I said fuck it, we're paying more for a 15 and getting rid of this mortgage before we retire.

Edited May 6, 2022 by Mach 1
clarification

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

I am envious of your position. I’m at 2.875 but only a year in.  29 to go and I don’t see myself leaving this loan for a long time. 
 

 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

anybody else sitting on a 2.5% 30 year fixed?

Not quite and not for long.
10 years into a 15 year at 3%.
Right now I’m at 14% LTV on our primary for sale.
My anus is preparing for when we refi our construction loan to a permanent later this year.
Help me @UTPhil2006 you’re my only hope.

[Gil Bang 25,951]

8 hours ago, MAUFRAIS said:

Why not just say “house for sale - now accepting offers” and see what happens?

Already happening in SFO bay area, according to my office training

4 hours ago, Hefeweizen said:

Lol California.  I am prepared with my anus.

I'm in N. San Diego, not far from the Orange and Riverside county lines.  If I can be of assistance, please reach out.  If I can't help you, I'll find somebody really good that can. I used to be an REO guy, so I've got a pretty big Rolodex. 

[Gil Bang 25,951]

5 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Not quite and not for long.
10 years into a 15 year at 3%.
Right now I’m at 14% LTV on our primary for sale.
My anus is preparing for when we refi our construction loan to a permanent later this year.
Help me @UTPhil2006 you’re my only hope.

Shit man, it's a shame you didn't get a mini-perm. 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

40 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I am envious of your position. I’m at 2.875 but only a year in.  29 to go and I don’t see myself leaving this loan for a long time. 
 

 

Not leaving mine either. We’ve scrapped buying a new house for now. I’ll have this  one paid off in a couple years right around when I turn 40. It’s too hard to justify taking out a massive loan just to upgrade.

[Incredulity 11,669]

7 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

anybody else sitting on a 2.5% 30 year fixed?

This is the bargaining phase of grief 

[Muny_Tex 293]

Checking in at 2.875% on my 30-year VA courtesy of Wulaw’s wizardry.

I knew it was a killer deal/value at the time (admin/closing costs were also extremely light); but realizing now it will likely end up in the “once in a lifetime” category.

*Just closed on a second home at 5.375% (no points, but sadly out of Wulaw’s area of ops) and was told those terms were equally “miraculous” so life (e.g. Powell) comes at you fast.

[UTPhil2006 3,807]

42 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

Not quite and not for long.
10 years into a 15 year at 3%.
Right now I’m at 14% LTV on our primary for sale.
My anus is preparing for when we refi our construction loan to a permanent later this year.
Help me @UTPhil2006 you’re my only hope.

I got you boo 

[T’Boo Ted Marshall 2,732]

Shit man, it's a shame you didn't get a mini-perm. 

Builders bank wouldn’t let me.

[Gil Bang 25,951]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

Already happening in SFO bay area, according to my office training

I'm in N. San Diego, not far from the Orange and Riverside county lines.  If I can be of assistance, please reach out.  If I can't help you, I'll find somebody really good that can. I used to be an REO guy, so I've got a pretty big Rolodex. 

Quoting myself here, in the interest of full disclosure: If you reach out to me to find you a realtor, two things will happen:

1) I will find you somebody really fucking good

2) I will receive a referral fee when the really fucking good realtor closes your deal

 

[fattyflattie 4,639]

5 hours ago, Mach 1 said:

Nope.  2.75 on a 15 year fixed.

Same. But not as far in as you.  Feel bad for you guys in this mess right now. I do wish we would have bought the “next one” last year, before we were priced out of our dream hood.  I can’t wrap my head around something that was ~750 a year ago pulling over 1 now. My mind just won’t let me do it. 

[Armybrat 40,839]

.I recall when the wife’s cousin was happy to get a 30 year @ 10% fixed.

And a few years before that a math teacher at work bought his house on an 18% mortgage. 

Good times in the Carter years.

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Everyone in the past 20 years has a good interest rate 

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

7 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

.I recall when the wife’s cousin was happy to get a 30 year @ 10% fixed.

And a few years before that a math teacher at work bought his house on an 18% mortgage. 

Good times in the Carter years.

Now compare house prices vs wages in the 70s compared to now. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Now compare house prices vs wages in the 70s compared to now. 

Do you have the number? I thought it was pretty similar in the sense it usually runs 3 or 4X, but I don’t know that to be true for sure. 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

Anyone been out to Florence, Tx recently?  
 

can’t get what you used to. 
 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/340-Bar-T-Dr-Florence-TX-76527/185254139_zpid/

[TKthunder2 4,991]

23 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Anyone been out to Florence, Tx recently?  
 

can’t get what you used to. 
 

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/340-Bar-T-Dr-Florence-TX-76527/185254139_zpid/

Brand new house is just about $500k anywhere near Austin the add this

”10 unrestricted, ag-exempt acres in GeorgetownISD! ”

and you’ll easily be over a million.

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

Yeah 100k/acre still seems way high for where it is. 

[UT_OB1 2,220]

10 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Why does that use avg household price but median income?  I’d expect that to skew the delta higher. 

[fattyflattie 4,639]

40 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Why does that use avg household price but median income?  I’d expect that to skew the delta higher. 

Also would interested to see the ft^2 between 1970 and ‘22. 

[TKthunder2 4,991]

4 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Yeah 100k/acre still seems way high for where it is. 

https://www.redfin.com/TX/Florence/0-Fm-243-78605/home/178349388
 

Meh it’s a little high but not wildly so.  Lots of factors in land valuation from water/timber/minerals to zoning/location/access/topography that can make that value swing dramatically.

This looks like it’s designed for a California buyer that wants a “Texas ranch” and is priced as such.

Still your point stand, values are just crazy fucked in all markets at the moment.

Edited May 8, 2022 by TKthunder2

[Neonmoon 38,129]

9 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Why does that use avg household price but median income?  I’d expect that to skew the delta higher. 

Here you go

[tokamak 6,427]

Seems like a problem

[jimmyjazz 45,920]

The surge in home prices happened as interest rates started to drop, though.  It would be nice to see principal + interest payments (say, for 20% down) in addition to "price".

[CooterBrown 18,008]

Yeah 100k/acre still seems way high for where it is. 

Not when you can build 5 homes on that acre and sell them for $400K each.

[UT_OB1 2,220]

1 hour ago, CooterBrown said:

Not when you can build 5 homes on that acre and sell them for $400K each.

Can you build a 2000 sqft home for less than $400k at this point?  
 

edit for data.   Not much room for error or meat left on the deal. One source, but it’s in line with what I was getting quotes on about a year ago (I was getting around 150/sqft w/o really getting far in the process)

Quote

The median price of a new construction home was $416,900¹ in November 2021, while the median size was 2,337 square feet². Taking these figures into account, $178 is a realistic cost per square foot.

https://www.credible.com/blog/mortgages/how-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-house/

Edited May 8, 2022 by UT_OB1

[Pato del Muerto 52,492]

40 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Can you build a 2000 sqft home for less than $400k at this point?  
 

edit for data.   Not much room for error or meat left on the deal. One source, but it’s in line with what I was getting quotes on about a year ago (I was getting around 150/sqft w/o really getting far in the process)

https://www.credible.com/blog/mortgages/how-much-does-it-cost-to-build-a-house/

Friend of ours in Wyoming told us 2 years ago it was 200/sf to build there. Materials cost is probably higher there but also that was 2 years ago. 
 

so yeah how much meat is left on the bone after you run utilities to that acre, split it into 5 lots, and build 6 homes on it?  
 

(that particular property I linked was valued at under 400k actually with the ag exemption on the majority of the acreage. Can you sell that house on a half acre for 500k there?)

Edited May 8, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Wulaw Horn 19,069]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

The surge in home prices happened as interest rates started to drop, though.  It would be nice to see principal + interest payments (say, for 20% down) in addition to "price".

Yep. What it’s really about is payment vs income for the vast majority of Americans. 
Also, our parents and grandparents had to put down 20-50% down payment in lots of instances whereas we get by with 3-5% down. That makes homeownership more accessible today than it was a while back.