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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
in Business and Markets

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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Catpfish

Catpfish 618

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Purely anecdotal, but during the worst of times, the Pflugerville MLS would average between 10-20 active houses (although most weren't really active, just sorting through multiple offers).  Compare that to now with over 480 homes listed.  Additionally, you really didn't see many new/spec homes listed by builders because they had as much walk up business as they could handle.  Now 100 of those 480 homes are spec/to be built.

The froth is off the market and prices are starting to drop as sellers realize that they missed the school buying season/frenzy and there aren't multiple offers just waiting on the listing.

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LW Goatman

LW Goatman 1125

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7 hours ago, closetohumping said:

In almost every market. 

First time caller, long time listener. This can go into the stupid question bucket, but looking for a simplified response if any. Does the group here expect TX home prices will start to drop significantly in the coming months? Or do you anticipate the market has reset and this is the new normal? I know there are a lot of factors at play with supply/demand, building, rentals, interest rates, etc but would there be a general outlook of prices coming down or staying near the same. Thanks. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

Posted
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1 minute ago, LW Goatman said:

First time caller, long time listener. This can go into the stupid question bucket, but looking for a simplified response if any. Does the group here expect TX home prices will start to drop significantly in the coming months? Or do you anticipate the market has reset and this is the new normal? I know there are a lot of factors at play with supply/demand, building, rentals, interest rates, etc but would there be a general outlook of prices coming down or staying near the same. Thanks. 

No. Anticipate prices in most places in Texas to be up between 3-5%. The market guys are saying 10% possible between now and the end of the year. My experience and many on here says way less frothy. I see nothing to indicate, in either the short or long term, that any of the desires or places to live in Texas (Major metro areas) will see a price drop. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

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2 minutes ago, LW Goatman said:

Thank you both, that is helpful. I need to buy up significantly, am ready to do so, but wondered if I should wait this out for a while. 

Best day to buy a house is usually yesterday. Next best day is usually today. Prices tend to go up and interest rates going up in the future make you happy you locked now, and interest rates going down mean you can refinance and lower your payment. It is very very very odd the buyer that benefits from waiting 6 months or a year. 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17574

Posted
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38 minutes ago, LW Goatman said:

First time caller, long time listener. This can go into the stupid question bucket, but looking for a simplified response if any. Does the group here expect TX home prices will start to drop significantly in the coming months? Or do you anticipate the market has reset and this is the new normal? I know there are a lot of factors at play with supply/demand, building, rentals, interest rates, etc but would there be a general outlook of prices coming down or staying near the same. Thanks. 

From what I’ve seen, the hotter markets Phoenix, austin, Boise , Vegas , slc etc dropped quicker as they were overvalued.  
 

if I’m investing in real estate I would be very bullish on Texas and the south in general.  I  am not an expert and things can change.  I also live in California.  

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46526

Posted
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4 hours ago, Catpfish said:

The froth is off the market and prices are starting to drop as sellers realize that they missed the school buying season/frenzy and there aren't multiple offers just waiting on the listing.

Eh, prices drop almost every year right about now.  What's important is year-over-year pricing, and Austin metro seems to still be climbing by that metric.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

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5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I always enjoy white knuckling a CTC on a Friday afternoon 

The best part of the slow down this year is that’s all gone. I think we are something like 100% close on time for the last 6 months and the vast majority have been ready well before closing date. We are averaging 15 days contract to docs right now for the last 3 months. Let’s just say that was NOT what 2020 and 2021 looked like. 
good luck. Het

it done and then have a nice scotch to shake it off. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

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4 minutes ago, Esque said:

Anyone deal with the home builders?  With rates up to almost 6.00% after today, expect we'll see another uptick in cancellations?

The homebuilder confidence level continues to plunge.  I imagine it will be below 50 the next time the report comes out (I think it was down to like 52.7 last reading). 50 is considered neutral. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The homebuilder confidence level continues to plunge.  I imagine it will be below 50 the next time the report comes out (I think it was down to like 52.7 last reading). 50 is considered neutral. 

Already hit 49 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/15/us-is-in-housing-recession-homebuilders-say.html

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

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3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Are we gonna be saved???

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/29/fannie-mae-says-fixed-mortgage-rates-could-fall-to-4point5percent-next-year.html?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=news_tab

I wouldn't be surprised if it was 4.5 by the end of this year and 3.75 or 4 next year.  Once inflation is put under wraps there is no reason for rates not to fall.  Recessionary pressures are typically likely to drive rates down, as people invest in bond/mortgage backed security market.  I'm planning on most who bought houses anytime in April-???? to be refinancing in 2023.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

Posted
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Same disclaimer as always... Not a commitment to lend- our rates are often better than this, this is merely the national average according to my loan pricing software of all deals locked on Friday.  MBS market opened up well down again this morning, more pain in store.  Read it and curl up in the corner and suck your thumb crying softly like we in the industry are...

30-YR. CONFORMING

5.870% -0.041

30-YR. JUMBO

5.716% +0.066

30-YR. FHA

5.676% -0.040

30-YR. VA

5.516% -0.028

30-YR. USDA

5.672% +0.040

15-YR. CONFORMING

5.121% -0.122
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

Posted
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2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yep turn it off and reset it. Maybe unplug it and plug it back in. Not a good day in the market 

Down 73 bips now.  Was down 36 when I dropped my kids off.  The 7 year old- as she always asks- wanted to know where the market was.  Down 36 basis points I tell her.  Oh, that's not good daddy.  Maybe it will get better?  Narrator voice- it did not.  

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3838

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16 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 73 bips now.  Was down 36 when I dropped my kids off.  The 7 year old- as she always asks- wanted to know where the market was.  Down 36 basis points I tell her.  Oh, that's not good daddy.  Maybe it will get better?  Narrator voice- it did not.  

Yup. Been pretty brutal. I guess the one “good” thing is it’s trimming the fat of the industry. Almost like 2012 all over again. Aug 31 brought a lot of end of services for Mortgage companies. Also I saw Amplify got out of wholesale. They were a heavy Jumbo lender 

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Esque

Esque 135

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Any thoughts on the market digesting the increased pace of QT by the Fed that began this month?  Given this is primarily going to be MBS, shouldn't that further impair values by driving increased volume?  Or realistically, too many moving pieces in secondary market to know how it all plays out in reality?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19331

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8 minutes ago, Esque said:

Any thoughts on the market digesting the increased pace of QT by the Fed that began this month?  Given this is primarily going to be MBS, shouldn't that further impair values by driving increased volume?  Or realistically, too many moving pieces in secondary market to know how it all plays out in reality?

The latter I would say.  

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3838

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23 minutes ago, Esque said:

Any thoughts on the market digesting the increased pace of QT by the Fed that began this month?  Given this is primarily going to be MBS, shouldn't that further impair values by driving increased volume?  Or realistically, too many moving pieces in secondary market to know how it all plays out in reality?

Not to get political but it will be November before we see movement either way 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2677

Posted
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2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yup. Been pretty brutal. I guess the one “good” thing is it’s trimming the fat of the industry. Almost like 2012 all over again. Aug 31 brought a lot of end of services for Mortgage companies. Also I saw Amplify got out of wholesale. They were a heavy Jumbo lender 

Re: Amplify, I think they just ran out of money (I.e., more successful lending it out than they expected to be).  I suppose it sucks for Bob and team whose payroll is dependent on transactions.  

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52-80

52-80 19287

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i hadnt increased the rent on my tenant for 3 years, and it already started below market when I offered to him.

was gonna send a notice of increase when he made unsolicited proposal to buy the place instead.  numbers will come later.  i think i wanna do it...but dont wanna take the tax hit

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