All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

10 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I saw + 209K, is that wrong?

ADP had 500k. 
209 is below expectations which I think were at 220k before the ADP report came in. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

First update of the day and MBS is down 11 (down is bad) no relief for you! 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

Ha!  Now we are down 30. Literally in the time it took me to post after I got my text and then turn around and log in we dropped another 19 points. 
this is literally insane. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

Also- last two months on the jobs report were revised down 110k!  They miss expectations by 20l jobs, it comes in at 40% of the ADP report which everyone was scratching their head over- we’ve lost 150 bips this week AND they revise it down 110k jobs from last two months AND we are still down for the day?  We should be up 30 basis points right now and testing resistance at 98.85 on the 5.5 coupon. 
instead we are oversold as shit and knocking on the door of the highest 10 year in a generation. 

[LCHorn 2,615]

I have a loan I need to lock, looks like my decision to hold off yesterday afternoon will be well rewarded…

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

11 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I have a loan I need to lock, looks like my decision to hold off yesterday afternoon will be well rewarded…

Finally going back right way. Weird start to the morning. Up 16 on the day now. 47 point reversal from the lows of the morning. 

[LCHorn 2,615]

Thanks for the update-I figured after getting blasted yesterday there was a better than 50-50 chance of improvement today but the last year has broken my crystal ball.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

5 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Thanks for the update-I figured after getting blasted yesterday there was a better than 50-50 chance of improvement today but the last year has broken my crystal ball.  

Yeah, no doubt.  My bitch this morning when we were down 30 was that we should be bumping up against resistance of 98.8 and instead we went the wrong way.  Well, now we are at 89.6, so, maybe sanity is restored and we get another 20 points and end the day at a place that makes at least a modicum of success.  Glad it's not just my crystal ball that is on the fritz.  

[Incredulity 11,650]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, no doubt.  My bitch this morning when we were down 30 was that we should be bumping up against resistance of 98.8 and instead we went the wrong way.  Well, now we are at 89.6, so, maybe sanity is restored and we get another 20 points and end the day at a place that makes at least a modicum of success.  Glad it's not just my crystal ball that is on the fritz.  

Mad scramble to undo positions put on in response the ADP report.  The purely speculative portion of the market will cause distortions.

[HonkeyVape 107]

Stat: Want to know why there are seemingly no houses for sale in the US these days? These numbers should help explain. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed to 6.81% this week, its highest level of 2023, according to Freddie Mac. At the same time, almost 92% of US homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate of less than 6%, Redfin reported. So, therein lies the rub. Not many current homeowners are willing to ditch their lower mortgage rates for the higher one that would come with a new house.

[Incredulity 11,650]

41 minutes ago, HonkeyVape said:

Stat: Want to know why there are seemingly no houses for sale in the US these days? These numbers should help explain. The average rate on a 30-year mortgage climbed to 6.81% this week, its highest level of 2023, according to Freddie Mac. At the same time, almost 92% of US homeowners with mortgages have an interest rate of less than 6%, Redfin reported. So, therein lies the rub. Not many current homeowners are willing to ditch their lower mortgage rates for the higher one that would come with a new house.

Now do commercial loans, auto loans….

[Neonmoon 38,129]

Market already dumped its pants on ADP News. Got a little back after BLS report today but not enough. I locked someone this afternoon after a reprice for the better. Thankfully as got a reprice for worse a couple hours later when market gave most of gains back. Hard to work a crystal ball when volatility is at Anne Heche level 

[SydneyCarton 48,054]

It’s interesting read the economic outlook in this thread juxtaposed against the general economic outlook I see in other places or holistically, which generally seem cautiously optimistic. The interest rate and sky is falling outlook makes sense for folks living in this industry currently, and I get that, but as another poster said these rates aren’t historically obscene. And basically having to operate at any environmentally other than the all time lows in rates we’ve seen the last 20 or so years and it’s apparently the end of the world. I feel for you guys, but as someone not in the industry, watching the level of hand wringing here certainly doesn’t match the general economic outlook i see generally, elsewhere 

Edited July 10, 2023 by SydneyCarton

[ViperVape 101]

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It’s interesting read the economic outlook in this thread juxtaposed against the general economic outlook I see in other places or holistically, which generally seem cautiously optimistic. The interest rate and sky is falling outlook makes sense for folks living in this industry currently, and I get that, but as another poster said these rates aren’t historically obscene. And basically having to operate at any environmentally other than the all time lows in rates we’ve seen the last 20 or so years and it’s apparently the end of the world. I feel for you guys, but as someone not in the industry, watching the level of hand wringing here certainly doesn’t match the general economic outlook i see generally, elsewhere 

Edited July 10, 2023 by ViperVape

[SydneyCarton 48,054]

1 minute ago, ViperVape said:

Lol, this is the best you’ve got, you fucking loser? Back on another handle, already half red, trying to mock me for…an observation? Guess we could go back to your riveting post upthread about…inventory. Holy shit you guys did you know there’s an inventory shortage in the housing industry? 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It’s interesting read the economic outlook in this thread juxtaposed against the general economic outlook I see in other places or holistically, which generally seem cautiously optimistic. The interest rate and sky is falling outlook makes sense for folks living in this industry currently, and I get that, but as another poster said these rates aren’t historically obscene. And basically having to operate at any environmentally other than the all time lows in rates we’ve seen the last 20 or so years and it’s apparently the end of the world. I feel for you guys, but as someone not in the industry, watching the level of hand wringing here certainly doesn’t match the general economic outlook i see generally, elsewhere 

Economic Outlook vs. Mortgage Outlook

Economic Outlook: We are seeing one of the strongest labor markets ever in spite of 7% mortgage rates, 9% auto loan rates, and 27% credit cards. Inflation is around 4%, we have a strong economy, and low unemployment. 

Mortgage Outlook: Lenders make money on transactions. Some of the lowest inventory numbers in a long time. Add in 92% of mortgage owners have a rate under 6% and 40% of all homeowners have no mortgage erase any refinances for the foreseeable future except cash-out refinance's. Low inventory means less transactions. Less money. Poor lenders. 

First Time Buyer Outlook: Unless you bought a house before 2022, you are probably fucked. Home prices appreciated around 40%. Wages did not appreciate 40%. Not to mention interest rates at 6-7%, and no one wants to sell their house, so inventory is at an all time low, means home prices are still elevated and even climbing. You can't afford shit. 

So general economy is great. Housing market is dogshit. 

[SydneyCarton 48,054]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Economic Outlook vs. Mortgage Outlook

Economic Outlook: We are seeing one of the strongest labor markets ever in spite of 7% mortgage rates, 9% auto loan rates, and 27% credit cards. Inflation is around 4%, we have a strong economy, and low unemployment. 

Mortgage Outlook: Lenders make money on transactions. Some of the lowest inventory numbers in a long time. Add in 92% of mortgage owners have a rate under 6% and 40% of all homeowners have no mortgage erase any refinances for the foreseeable future except cash-out refinance's. Low inventory means less transactions. Less money. Poor lenders. 

First Time Buyer Outlook: Unless you bought a house before 2022, you are probably fucked. Home prices appreciated around 40%. Wages did not appreciate 40%. Not to mention interest rates at 6-7%, and no one wants to sell their house, so inventory is at an all time low, means home prices are still elevated and even climbing. You can't afford shit. 

So general economy is great. Housing market is dogshit. 

That’s sort of what I thought, I was just reacting to one of Wulaw’s posts that I believe literally cited the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse and seven seals for the economy in general. I get this sucks real fucking bad for you guys in the industry, and I feel for y’all. I’ve got a segment of my business currently that is usually a standard bearer for our success and has been an anchor around our neck recently. It’s miserable shit. 

[LCHorn 2,615]

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s sort of what I thought, I was just reacting to one of Wulaw’s posts that I believe literally cited the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse and seven seals for the economy in general. I get this sucks real fucking bad for you guys in the industry, and I feel for y’all. I’ve got a segment of my business currently that is usually a standard bearer for our success and has been an anchor around our neck recently. It’s miserable shit. 

I don’t think those of us in the industry are feeling like market deterioration from the best couple of years most of ever had is unfair; frankly it’s welcome to the extent that I’m not working until midnight seven days a week.  
 

What’s cause for our discomfort is just how fast the door slammed shut; we had a team of ten and I took a big pay cut to minimize layoffs last year but it didn’t help; that includes four loan officers I trained personally and was invested heavily in their success, both in terms of time and head hunter fees.  Our super sharp admin was a loss; all our biz dev team we had to let go.  Maybe it’s better to have the band aid ripped away fast but all of that infrastructure built to handle better times isn’t there now for when rates come down, as they will.  
 

Anyway, I can’t speak to anyone else’s experience, but that makes for a pretty shitty part of the business cycle.  

[SydneyCarton 48,054]

9 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t think those of us in the industry are feeling like market deterioration from the best couple of years most of ever had is unfair; frankly it’s welcome to the extent that I’m not working until midnight seven days a week.  
 

What’s cause for our discomfort is just how fast the door slammed shut; we had a team of ten and I took a big pay cut to minimize layoffs last year but it didn’t help; that includes four loan officers I trained personally and was invested heavily in their success, both in terms of time and head hunter fees.  Our super sharp admin was a loss; all our biz dev team we had to let go.  Maybe it’s better to have the band aid ripped away fast but all of that infrastructure built to handle better times isn’t there now for when rates come down, as they will.  
 

Anyway, I can’t speak to anyone else’s experience, but that makes for a pretty shitty part of the business cycle.  

Sorry man that blows. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

It’s interesting read the economic outlook in this thread juxtaposed against the general economic outlook I see in other places or holistically, which generally seem cautiously optimistic. The interest rate and sky is falling outlook makes sense for folks living in this industry currently, and I get that, but as another poster said these rates aren’t historically obscene. And basically having to operate at any environmentally other than the all time lows in rates we’ve seen the last 20 or so years and it’s apparently the end of the world. I feel for you guys, but as someone not in the industry, watching the level of hand wringing here certainly doesn’t match the general economic outlook i see generally, elsewhere 

It doesn't matter that the rates aren't out of whack with historical markers, it matters simply that the rates went up so quickly that it's frozen the market in place.  We are on pace to do 1.3 or 1.4 Trillion in originations this year.  Previous years have seen 4-5T.  Normal years are 3T.  Really shitty years are 2T.  This is pretty unprecedented and the worst market in a generation.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Economic Outlook vs. Mortgage Outlook

Economic Outlook: We are seeing one of the strongest labor markets ever in spite of 7% mortgage rates, 9% auto loan rates, and 27% credit cards. Inflation is around 4%, we have a strong economy, and low unemployment. 

Mortgage Outlook: Lenders make money on transactions. Some of the lowest inventory numbers in a long time. Add in 92% of mortgage owners have a rate under 6% and 40% of all homeowners have no mortgage erase any refinances for the foreseeable future except cash-out refinance's. Low inventory means less transactions. Less money. Poor lenders. 

First Time Buyer Outlook: Unless you bought a house before 2022, you are probably fucked. Home prices appreciated around 40%. Wages did not appreciate 40%. Not to mention interest rates at 6-7%, and no one wants to sell their house, so inventory is at an all time low, means home prices are still elevated and even climbing. You can't afford shit. 

So general economy is great. Housing market is dogshit. 

General economy outlook not so rosy man.  Employment is a lagging indicator and literally all the technical signs of recession are screaming alarm klaxons.  The fed has mismanaged this entire thing, people have less spending power than they did 12 months ago and 24 months ago even with wage increases, and equity in homes has already started declining since people are tapping into it to stay afloat.  Credit card debt is back up.  Inflation has crested but it's still really painful, and the fed is driving using the rear view mirror instead of the windshield promising more hikes to cool down an economy that doesn't need cooling down and is likely entering recessionary territory.  That's my take, you can like up and place your bets as one of us will be right and one will be wrong, and it well could be me!  

Spot on with Mortgage outlook and 1st time buyer outlook.  

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s sort of what I thought, I was just reacting to one of Wulaw’s posts that I believe literally cited the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse and seven seals for the economy in general. I get this sucks real fucking bad for you guys in the industry, and I feel for y’all. I’ve got a segment of my business currently that is usually a standard bearer for our success and has been an anchor around our neck recently. It’s miserable shit. 

We will see. I think he's wrong and the general economy is going into the shitter, but who knows.  None of this is my stuff by the way, it's a synthesis of what I read and see from people who comment on it.  I'm not a zero hedge guy where they've correctly predicted 100 of the last 2 recessions, but I think we are going to get a decent sized recession here (less than in 2008) in the next 6-18 months.  I don't recall calling forth the apocolypse on the greater economy, but that's my take. 

Edited July 10, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

32 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t think those of us in the industry are feeling like market deterioration from the best couple of years most of ever had is unfair; frankly it’s welcome to the extent that I’m not working until midnight seven days a week.  
 

What’s cause for our discomfort is just how fast the door slammed shut; we had a team of ten and I took a big pay cut to minimize layoffs last year but it didn’t help; that includes four loan officers I trained personally and was invested heavily in their success, both in terms of time and head hunter fees.  Our super sharp admin was a loss; all our biz dev team we had to let go.  Maybe it’s better to have the band aid ripped away fast but all of that infrastructure built to handle better times isn’t there now for when rates come down, as they will.  
 

Anyway, I can’t speak to anyone else’s experience, but that makes for a pretty shitty part of the business cycle.  

Agreed that it sucks and sorry that happened with you and yours. I actually got ahead of it and simplified my teams and processes and got my outgoes in sycnh with where revenue landed in April of 2023, so I was pretty happy I had the foresight to do that and was out in front of the game.  Personally, the good news is that I've never had better quality of service and customer experience because of the lessons learned during the good times and being able to be applied now that we all have time to work on our processes.  I'm hitting 14 day closings left and right- the other day we had docs at title company 8 days after getting under contract- that is a real win and feels nice.  Just wish we had more people we could help right now.  

Refinance is currently at 8% of the market.  Was talking to a high up dude in charge of having the crystal ball at PennyMac last month and he said that nobody ever considered such a thing was possible in any of their modeling.  They are predicting better times ahead in 2nd quarter of 2024 for the industry (in large part b/c they think that's when the recession will be here and obvious in the general economy- giving us interest rate relief).  Who knows.  Dude was really sharp and it was a super interesting 3 hours at dinner with him, and matches much of what I'm reading with Habib and some other guys.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

On 7/7/2023 at 8:08 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Also- last two months on the jobs report were revised down 110k!  They miss expectations by 20l jobs, it comes in at 40% of the ADP report which everyone was scratching their head over- we’ve lost 150 bips this week AND they revise it down 110k jobs from last two months AND we are still down for the day?  We should be up 30 basis points right now and testing resistance at 98.85 on the 5.5 coupon. 
instead we are oversold as shit and knocking on the door of the highest 10 year in a generation. 

98.81 on the 5.5 coupon.  The market is back to rational after a really weird Friday/open today.   

[LCHorn 2,615]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Sorry man that blows. 

Thanks; everything is all perspective, though.  I'll share a story about a former colleague that's had it even rougher.

So I'm a mortgage banker and the bank for whom I worked built itself up in 2019-2021 by recruiting some of the best producers in the country and letting them be fairly independent compared to how branches are usually managed (basically, run your branch how you want, run your own P&L, use your dba, we won't be have any overlays on conforming, etc.).  The rapid market deterioration, coupled with letting branches run losses too long meant they faced solvency issues at the beginning of the year and they took a bail-out offer from another bank after a large number of the branches left to start their own mortgage bank.  For our part, we had read the tea leaves and left late last year before things got really bad. 

One of our colleagues, however, couldn't leave because he had a $250K or higher (I'm misremembering just how much it was, it might have been $400K) branch surplus on his P&L that he would lose if he left (he basically was a one man shop and had zero expenses; I'm told you can bonus yourself some of that surplus but it can't be more than 10% of your gross compensation annually because the CFPB doesn't want it used to shift compensation around).  When the bank was sold he was promised some small fraction of this and I don't think he's received any of it (as you might expect, the original bank didn't have it to pay and the bank's buyer doesn't feel any obligation but will use it as a carrot to retain his branch). 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

General economy outlook not so rosy man.  Employment is a lagging indicator and literally all the technical signs of recession are screaming alarm klaxons.  The fed has mismanaged this entire thing, people have less spending power than they did 12 months ago and 24 months ago even with wage increases, and equity in homes has already started declining since people are tapping into it to stay afloat.  Credit card debt is back up.  Inflation has crested but it's still really painful, and the fed is driving using the rear view mirror instead of the windshield promising more hikes to cool down an economy that doesn't need cooling down and is likely entering recessionary territory.  That's my take, you can like up and place your bets as one of us will be right and one will be wrong, and it well could be me!  

Spot on with Mortgage outlook and 1st time buyer outlook.  

I disagree on the general outlook, but my crystal ball has been on fritz lately. It's just this war, and that lying son of a bitch Johnson.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Thanks; everything is all perspective, though.  I'll share a story about a former colleague that's had it even rougher.

So I'm a mortgage banker and the bank for whom I worked built itself up in 2019-2021 by recruiting some of the best producers in the country and letting them be fairly independent compared to how branches are usually managed (basically, run your branch how you want, run your own P&L, use your dba, we won't be have any overlays on conforming, etc.).  The rapid market deterioration, coupled with letting branches run losses too long meant they faced solvency issues at the beginning of the year and they took a bail-out offer from another bank after a large number of the branches left to start their own mortgage bank.  For our part, we had read the tea leaves and left late last year before things got really bad. 

One of our colleagues, however, couldn't leave because he had a $250K or higher (I'm misremembering just how much it was, it might have been $400K) branch surplus on his P&L that he would lose if he left (he basically was a one man shop and had zero expenses; I'm told you can bonus yourself some of that surplus but it can't be more than 10% of your gross compensation annually because the CFPB doesn't want it used to shift compensation around).  When the bank was sold he was promised some small fraction of this and I don't think he's received any of it (as you might expect, the original bank didn't have it to pay and the bank's buyer doesn't feel any obligation but will use it as a carrot to retain his branch). 

Ha.  In June of 21 I walked away from 100k in my pipeline and 120k on my P&L in surplus.  They were kind enough to pay me out roughly 18k in expenses and then shut it down.  Nope, never doing retail again.  The reason I had to bail was because they started running pricing 175 basis points worse for us in their retail segment than the wholesale segment- which essentially put me out of business.   Whose paying me an extra 175 basis points to do their loan with the concurrent 3/8 to 1/2 hit to their actual interest rate?  Answer- Nobody.  

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I disagree on the general outlook, but my crystal ball has been on fritz lately. It's just this war, and that lying son of a bitch Johnson.

 

Indeed. I'm so confident my crystal ball is better than yours that I'm willing to make you a Mortimer and Randolph Duke gentlemans wager of $1.00

[LCHorn 2,615]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ha.  In June of 21 I walked away from 100k in my pipeline and 120k on my P&L in surplus.  They were kind enough to pay me out roughly 18k in expenses and then shut it down.  Nope, never doing retail again.  The reason I had to bail was because they started running pricing 175 basis points worse for us in their retail segment than the wholesale segment- which essentially put me out of business.   Whose paying me an extra 175 basis points to do their loan with the concurrent 3/8 to 1/2 hit to their actual interest rate?  Answer- Nobody.  

Ouch--they did that to us, too, but just by 25 bps.  After promising full transparency into raw pricing when we were recruited, the discovery of the upcharge is partly what sped up many of the branch departures.  They probably could have sold it if they hadn't lied by omission about it first. 

[ChickenSandwich 9,826]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s sort of what I thought, I was just reacting to one of Wulaw’s posts that I believe literally cited the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse and seven seals for the economy in general. I get this sucks real fucking bad for you guys in the industry, and I feel for y’all. I’ve got a segment of my business currently that is usually a standard bearer for our success and has been an anchor around our neck recently. It’s miserable shit. 

Only cash buyers and hedge funds purchasing residential homes for an extended amount of time seems like bad idea jeans. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

31 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Ouch--they did that to us, too, but just by 25 bps.  After promising full transparency into raw pricing when we were recruited, the discovery of the upcharge is partly what sped up many of the branch departures.  They probably could have sold it if they hadn't lied by omission about it first. 

Yep.  We went from A- pricing to D+ pricing overnight.  I could live with A- if they ran the outfit decently (I've never been afraid to give away bips to help win a deal and I've never tried to have a 250 point spread on any outfit I am involved with) but D+ is just not something I was going to tolerate. So, I looked around, thought about it, decided to get back to broker world again and left 200K + on the table.  I'd make that decision again 8 days out of 7, but it did hurt a bit.  And for all that, it didn't hurt near as much as this market has, if you can believe that (and I imagine you can).  That's the thing- they can be honest, they can be transparent and then they can change their mind at any point in time.  So, best be somewhere that doesn't offer to "hold onto your money and keep it safe" for you.  Or, someone that can strangle your pricing on a whim.  Live and learn.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

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So, that's the 25 year origination chart. You can see that 4th quarter of 2023 was the lowest quarter of many any quarter going back 25 years except maybe a little dip in 2009 and 2011.  But, you see those popped back up the next quarter to sort of stabalize back to close to what prior times had been.  Instead, we have gone flat with, like I said, a predicted 1.3T (that's basically the 350B 4th quarter of shit we bot mulitpied by 4 as the new normal- with a little bit of erosion on top of that.  And, I don't see any end to this particularly soon because of the frozen market.  Keep in mind- I don't believe these numbers have been normalized ( I could be wrong) so with probably 2X inflation since the start of the chart, and 20% in the last 24 months cumulatively- getting back to where we were in 2015 in that one bad quarter represents probably being 40% less in terms of real revenue.  When you hear someone in this industry howling it's not minor at all.  As far as actual units go I'm betting with appreciation being what it is we are talking about 1/2 the total number of units as was done in previous lows in 2009 and 2011.  

From an industry perspective I think the 2004-2008 chart looks perfect.  Roughly 3T in volume a year and ups and downs in a manageable and predictable pattern brought on by normal seasonal times.  

[gmr548 16,576]

6 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

General economy outlook not so rosy man.  Employment is a lagging indicator and literally all the technical signs of recession are screaming alarm klaxons.  The fed has mismanaged this entire thing, people have less spending power than they did 12 months ago and 24 months ago even with wage increases, and equity in homes has already started declining since people are tapping into it to stay afloat.  Credit card debt is back up.  Inflation has crested but it's still really painful, and the fed is driving using the rear view mirror instead of the windshield promising more hikes to cool down an economy that doesn't need cooling down and is likely entering recessionary territory.  That's my take, you can like up and place your bets as one of us will be right and one will be wrong, and it well could be me!  

Spot on with Mortgage outlook and 1st time buyer outlook.  

We will see. I think he's wrong and the general economy is going into the shitter, but who knows.  None of this is my stuff by the way, it's a synthesis of what I read and see from people who comment on it.  I'm not a zero hedge guy where they've correctly predicted 100 of the last 2 recessions, but I think we are going to get a decent sized recession here (less than in 2008) in the next 6-18 months.  I don't recall calling forth the apocolypse on the greater economy, but that's my take. 

I'm more optimistic on the general economic front because I am not convinced employment is going to have a major collapse. I think we may be at a demographic inflection point with boomers leaving the workforce and not having the bodies to replace them, and it's possible we're working with such a structural labor shortage that we only see a mild recession if at all.

I too do not know shit about fuck though.

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I'm more optimistic on the general economic front because I am not convinced employment is going to have a major collapse. I think we may be at a demographic inflection point with boomers leaving the workforce and not having the bodies to replace them, and it's possible we're working with such a structural labor shortage that we only see a mild recession if at all.

I too do not know shit about fuck though.

Could be.  Unemployment is always a lagging indicator but we've never turned over a generation as big as the boomers before so maybe that could be true. You are looking for why tomorrow won't look like yesterday and that makes as much sense as anything I guess. 

[gmr548 16,576]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You are looking for why tomorrow won't look like yesterday

Not necessarily, but I mean, in hindsight tomorrow hasn't looked like yesterday for, what, 20 years? In some sense that is looking like yesterday in a roundabout way.

[Gatorubet 30,185]

On 7/10/2023 at 6:21 PM, gmr548 said:

I too do not know shit about fuck though.

We may be related. 

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

Nice little day in the market thus far. Got to up around 4.05 (from our 3.3’s Lows about 6 weeks ago) over the last month.. got a little reprieve yesterday and down 0.12 to 3.85 so far. Take the small victories where we can get them these days 

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

On 7/12/2023 at 12:02 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Nice little day in the market thus far. Got to up around 4.05 (from our 3.3’s Lows about 6 weeks ago) over the last month.. got a little reprieve yesterday and down 0.12 to 3.85 so far. Take the small victories where we can get them these days 

Another .10 today down to 3.75 so far.  Small victories add up to big wins.

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

From a high of 7.22 for national average down to 6.87 right now. The 7.22 never made sense. It was so dumb. 6.87 still doesn’t seem logical but ok, I guess. 

[LCHorn 2,615]

These last two weeks of volatility have not been good for my liver.  

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

Back up .05 today. Someone jinxed the no hitter. 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

On 7/12/2023 at 1:02 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Nice little day in the market thus far. Got to up around 4.05 (from our 3.3’s Lows about 6 weeks ago) over the last month.. got a little reprieve yesterday and down 0.12 to 3.85 so far. Take the small victories where we can get them these days 

 

21 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Another .10 today down to 3.75 so far.  Small victories add up to big wins.

 

8 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Back up .05 today. Someone jinxed the no hitter. 

[GopherRock 1,765]

43 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Back up .05 today. Someone jinxed the no hitter. 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

I am up in DC lobbying congress today on new legislation written that would make it illegal for credit bureaus to sell your personal information when you do a mortgage application.  This process leads to abuse of customers when they get dozens of calls within a couple hours of filling out an application. Bipartisan and common sense bill Washington should see more of. Call or email your congressman and tell them to support House Bill 4198

Edited July 18, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[Neonmoon 38,129]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I am up in DC lobbying congress today on new legislation written that would make it illegal for credit bureaus to sell your personal information when you do a mortgage application.  This process leads to abuse of customers when they get dozens of calls within a couple hours of filling out an application. Bipartisan and common sense bill Washington should see more of. Call or email your congressman and tell them to support House Bill 4198

Good. Fuck those cocksuckers. 

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I am up in DC lobbying congress today on new legislation written that would make it illegal for credit bureaus to sell your personal information when you do a mortgage application.  This process leads to abuse of customers when they get dozens of calls within a couple hours of filling out an application. Bipartisan and common sense bill Washington should see more of. Call or email your congressman and tell them to support House Bill 4198

Number one thing I despise. Half the time the client thinks it’s our fault too and gets mad. Get ‘em WU 

[Wulaw Horn 19,066]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Number one thing I despise. Half the time the client thinks it’s our fault too and gets mad. Get ‘em WU 

Yep. Once you explain to them it’s doesn’t serve you to sell their information they get it- but those are only the people that you have the opportunity to talk to, right?  How many just say fuck that guy selling my information?  
had both our meetings where the congressman described it as “a no brainer” so maybe?  Who knows. 

[Gil Bang 25,915]

DRE URGING ALL LICENSEES TO BE ON ALERT FOR GROWING VACANT LAND PROPERTY SCAMS

SACRAMENTO – Last fall, the California Department of Real Estate (DRE) issued a statewide Consumer Alert involving identity theft and rental properties. Now, DRE is urging its more than 434,000 licensees to be on alert for another type of false identity scam. This one involves a growing number of fraudsters posing as owners of vacant land and contacting real estate agents and requesting their assistance to sell a property they don’t own.

Law enforcement agencies and District Attorney offices around California are reporting a sharp increase in real estate fraud involving identity theft and the sale of vacant land and unencumbered property.

All real estate agents must exercise due diligence to verify the owner of a property before accepting a listing.

In the scheme, the criminal:

 

• Searches public records to:

   

   

  1. Identify properties that are free of mortgage or other liens.

      

      

  2. Identify the property owner – This often includes vacant lots, long-term rentals, or vacation rentals, with targeted properties often owned by the elderly and/or foreigners.

      

   

• Poses as the property owner and contacts a real estate agent to list the property for sale

   

   

• Requests that the property be listed below market value to generate immediate interest.

   

   

• Requests that no "For Sale" sign be posted on the property.

   

   

• Requests preference for a cash buyer, quickly accepts an offer, and demands a quick closing.

   

   

• Refuses to meet in person, preferring to be contacted through email, text, or over phone, and typically refusing video calls.

   

   

• Refuses to attend the signing and claims to be out of state or country.

   

   

• Demands to use their own notary, who then provides falsified documents to the title company or closing attorney.

   

   

• Insists that proceeds are wired to them.

   

On their own, these characteristics may not be red flags. But, when several or most occur, the risk becomes more apparent. Unfortunately, the scheme is usually only discovered when recording the transfer of documents with the appropriate county.

How to prevent the scam

As a real estate agent, before accepting a listing, you must take steps to establish and verify the identity of a property owner. Some tips to do that include:

 

• Request an in-person or virtual meeting and see proper government-issued identification.

   

   

• If they won’t meet, require them to utilize the services of third-party identity verification service provider.

   

   

• Conduct an online search using the name of the property owner. Look for a phone number and recent photo. If you find a number, contact that person and verify they are the actual owner.

   

   

• Send via overnight mail a copy of the electronically signed listing to the address or record with a request to confirm the listing’s accuracy. This will alert the legitimate owner of potential fraud.

   

   

• Require that the property owner provide a copy of a voided check with the seller’s disbursement authorization form.

   

   

• Use a wire verification service or confirm wire instructions match account details on the seller’s disbursement authorization form.

   

DRE also encourages brokers to develop written policies with respect to listing properties in which the licensee and seller have never met in-person.

Alleged cases of this or any other type of real estate fraud should be reported to local law enforcement authorities or local District Attorney’s office. If there is another real estate licensee potentially involved in the fraud, you should provide the information to DRE through its Enforcement Online Complaint System.

Additional Resources

[UTPhil2006 3,805]

If we need to bribe them with our NIL money let me know 

[UT_OB1 2,217]

@Gil Bang or anyone else that can answer - how does that not get caught by title company?  

[Neonmoon 38,129]

@Gil Bang we have seen that scam in NC. We have due diligence money too, so you can get a quick couple grand without even having to go through closing 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

Demands to use their own notary, who then provides falsified documents to the title company or closing attorney.

 

23 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

@Gil Bang or anyone else that can answer - how does that not get caught by title company?  

Answered