All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

For everyone in the industry- please donate here. 
it’s good stuff. This isn’t all that important the trigger lead shit, it’s just a good thing to do for our customers. The point of it though is to build the group so that when something important happens we don’t get caught with our pants down and anally violated like we did in 08. That means having money, having members and having advocacy and relationships. If you are in the industry please donate. It’s $100. 
 https://donate.stripe.com/bIY5lq4iM2BD9LWaEE. Use

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

Lobbying efforts went well. Had a dem staff say they will probably want to get on as a co-sponsor (it’s GOP introduced in the house) and a GOP congressman say this (and another bill for zero down payments for teachers, cops, firemen, first responders) looked like a no brainer to him. I’m not saying it’s going to get passed but nobody should be against it- like- there isn’t a conceivable argument against it because it even has carve outs to allow servicers or people with past relationships to continue to call, or for consumers to opt in (through a lending tree or bank rate type comparative shopping site). 
Was a nice experience, met some cool people, raised some money, enjoyed myself and am impressed with the group. And, it was nice to walk 2 miles at 5:30 in the morning on pleasant weather bc I haven’t experienced any pleasant weather in houston since may. 
8/10. Only bad thing is I don’t enjoy drugs, indiscriminate sex, drinking (a little bit after the surgery is ok but it’s tough) or food anymore, so instead of indulging vices I go back to the hotel room and miss my wife- pretty boring. 

[UTPhil2006 3,812]

10 year down to 3.77 (.02 yesterday .01 today down) which is minimal from where we’ve been the last week but also at almost month lows. Again small victories at this point 

[Eastwood 4,394]

19 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

 

Answered 

A good, well seasoned title company should still catch it. No two closings are ever the same, but there is a fairly decent feel, rhythm, cadence, etc. to how each transaction typically goes and the moment something starts to feel off, the escrow officer should do a little extra digging. Some of these title shops are just churn and burn, though, and aren’t really paying attention to the transaction. Escrow assistants help order the survey, HOA docs, get the paperwork in line, escrow officer makes sure the CD and docs are in good shape, and away they go. But you see the same docs thousands and thousands of times over and the little discrepancies start to stand out. Handwriting of the seller and the notary almost perfectly match, a supposedly 95 year old seller with a perfect signature, things like that.

But in my own personal experience, sometimes you start saying “well, that’s weird…” one too many times, do a little digging, and find the body they were trying to hide. For my couple of examples, it wasn’t anything overtly criminal, but more along the lines of family members of elderly sellers trying to take a shortcut instead of going through the courts to allow the sale of an owner who is disabled or a husband and wife who are not on good terms and one spouse is trying to sell a property without the other. 

[bluto 4,942]

Starting to see some cracks in commercial RE dam that we all know are present. apartments bought 2 yrs ago that are selling off at 20% discount from then to today. Hearing of a class apartments in Tx trading around 6 cap. For the last 6-9 mos there just wasn’t much of any transaction material to support the assumption of falling values but seems like the fuse is running out. 
 

I’m no capital markets expert but have to

imagine massive implications as the losses are realized. Certainly will be issues on taxing jurisdictions. 

[Gil Bang 26,020]

Arrivederci, cocksucker

 

[Incredulity 11,683]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/loan-officer-m-seeing-middle-000641114.html

 

Loan officer: I’m seeing middle class homebuyers take on $7,000 mortgages thinking they can ‘always refinance when rates come down in the future’

 

John Downs: I must say, the reaction today is quite different from last year. It’s almost as if we have lived through the "7 stages of grief." We appear to have entered the “acceptance and hope” phase.

[Bevo in VA 342]

Question to the group.  Looking to get a HELOC on my primary residence here in Virginia for some remodeling.  What is the best way to get started?  Been looking on line but it's hard to find actual rates to compare.  Do I just need to start calling lenders and shop rates or is there somewhere I can go that has this information consolidated?

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

37 minutes ago, Bevo in VA said:

Question to the group.  Looking to get a HELOC on my primary residence here in Virginia for some remodeling.  What is the best way to get started?  Been looking on line but it's hard to find actual rates to compare.  Do I just need to start calling lenders and shop rates or is there somewhere I can go that has this information consolidated?

Local bank more likely than not on a HELOC. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Down 78 basis points. FML

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

Down 78 basis points. FML

 

Holy shit I was just getting ready to come post that. I started my expense report 10 minutes ago and we were down a mere 48 bips and I look up and now its 78.  WTF?  Fed spoke dovishly.  Rumor is inflation is going down almost a full point tomorrow- did something break loose and I didn't hear? I mean, seriously, wtf?

[UTPhil2006 3,812]

Back over 4.00 on the 10 year. 🤬

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

Bad Fed auction and something something bank of Japan.  Seems an overreaction.  Inflation report better not come in hot manana...

Just now, UTPhil2006 said:

Back over 4.00 on the 10 year. 🤬

hand jibbers around- eh?

[Neonmoon 38,130]

GDP coming in at 2.4% instead of expected 1.8% dropped it 30BP

Jobless Claims coming in lower than expected dropped it to 45BP

then bank of Japan News clipped it further. 

Habib says PCE coming in a point lower tomorrow. Doubt that will regain enough to cover todays loss. Very surprised they didn’t send a lock notice 

[LCHorn 2,631]

I've decided that Habib is that little girl standing in front of a house burning meme. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

16 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Habib says PCE coming in a point lower tomorrow. Doubt that will regain enough to cover todays loss. Very surprised they didn’t send a lock notice 

As expected, PCE came in as expected. Core PCE at 4.1%, a smidge better than expected. Not enough to really move the needle from the shitshow yesterday. Up 20 BP, but after losing 61+ yesterday. No bueno. Thanks Habib

[UTPhil2006 3,812]

17 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

As expected, PCE came in as expected. Core PCE at 4.1%, a smidge better than expected. Not enough to really move the needle from the shitshow yesterday. Up 20 BP, but after losing 61+ yesterday. No bueno. Thanks Habib

Yeah minimal gains back from yesterdays shitshow 

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

Up to 38 bips today.  20 down from yesterday. Not a disaster, just need a good afternoon continuation to get back where we were. Should we chase or just say nah and lock anyone looking?

 

[UTPhil2006 3,812]

17 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Up to 38 bips today.  20 down from yesterday. Not a disaster, just need a good afternoon continuation to get back where we were. Should we chase or just say nah and lock anyone looking?

 

I’d see it out til at least Monday 

[LCHorn 2,631]

32 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Up to 38 bips today.  20 down from yesterday. Not a disaster, just need a good afternoon continuation to get back where we were. Should we chase or just say nah and lock anyone looking?

 

I'm floating one after losing a deal to UFCU purely due to market improvement two weeks ago. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

13 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I'm floating one after losing a deal to UFCU purely due to market improvement two weeks ago. 

Yessir.  I had to flip from one lender to another when that little bit of fun happened.  They got sort of butthurt and I was like- yo- your relock program sucks, you want me to lose the deal too?  

[Gil Bang 26,020]

Working with a friend of the GF.  She's got a very nice condo...worth 900 or so, and wants to get away from  HOA and get a little privacy.  

It's been a beating, because she wants me to show her houses that she cannot buy until her condo is sold.   Finally, this morning, she came to the realization that she needs to sell first, so we're going to get it listed this weekend.  

I've got to give her a good-guy discount on the listing, but I'll also have her for the buy (which should be all-cash) so I'm stoked.  Also stoked to have a cash buyer in the pipeline, because the market is insane right now. 

One of the houses I showed her had over 20 offers and went 100,000 over asking.  The agent told me that he was discouraging offers after he was swamped, or he could have gotten much more.

Interesting note about the agent; he was disabled.  He was driving a little scooter deal in the house.  Must be a real bitch to be a realtor when you cannot see upstairs in any home.  

[tx 3 putt 77,426]

Thanks @UTPhil2006 !

 

[Gil Bang 26,020]

23 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Working with a friend of the GF.  She's got a very nice condo...worth 900 or so, and wants to get away from  HOA and get a little privacy.  

It's been a beating, because she wants me to show her houses that she cannot buy until her condo is sold.   Finally, this morning, she came to the realization that she needs to sell first, so we're going to get it listed this weekend.  

I've got to give her a good-guy discount on the listing, but I'll also have her for the buy (which should be all-cash) so I'm stoked.  Also stoked to have a cash buyer in the pipeline, because the market is insane right now. 

One of the houses I showed her had over 20 offers and went 100,000 over asking.  The agent told me that he was discouraging offers after he was swamped, or he could have gotten much more.

Interesting note about the agent; he was disabled.  He was driving a little scooter deal in the house.  Must be a real bitch to be a realtor when you cannot see upstairs in any home.  

Great news! 

The condo complex is suing the developer for construction defects.  FML

[Armybrat 40,910]

Well hell, what condo complex hasn’t been built with corner-cutting? Particularly those converted from older apartment projects.

Even some high rises (Miami for example).

Edited July 30, 2023 by Armybrat

[Sam Lin 3,561]

On 7/28/2023 at 2:35 PM, Gil Bang said:

The agent told me that he was discouraging offers after he was swamped, or he could have gotten much more.

How is this meeting his responsibility to his client, as selling agent?

[Gil Bang 26,020]

How is this meeting his responsibility to his client, as selling agent?

I assume he said something like “we have multiple offers well over asking so come hard in the paint or don’t come at all”

[Gil Bang 26,020]

BTW Sam, he’s the “listing” agent. The “selling agent” represents the buyer. I know it seems goofy, but that is the correct terminology.

Well hell, what condo complex hasn’t been built with corner-cutting? Particularly those converted from older apartment projects.
Even some high rises (Miami for example).

So, I used to work as an expert witness on construction defect cases. I went over the full expert report on this morning and it’s all pretty minor shit.

[Armybrat 40,910]

Then no biggie.

But I’d be scared to have my 1995 tract house examined.

[Gil Bang 26,020]

So, another day in the life of a parasite that adds no value to a transaction:

Former client calls me, and says she's walking near the beach, and there is a boarded up house in bad repair.  She sees a neighbor.   Neighbor tells her that nobody has been to the house in years, and she wonders if both husband and wife have passed away. 

She gives me the address of the property. I spend a couple of hours last night researching the title, find out that the woman did indeed pass away a few months back and her son is now the owner.  I do more detective work and find an address for the son about 20 miles away.   I write a letter to the son that I have an interested party, would he consider selling, yada yada. 

I drive by the property to check it out on my way to the son's house.   The property isn't a board-up; it's actually very nice. WTF?  

So, I call the client to verify the address.  She says she's sure.  She sends me a pic of a fucked-up house with "226" as house numbers.  She tells me that it's on the same block as a remodel in progress.  I drive up and down this street, and I find the property in question.  It's 826 S. X street, but it indeed has house numbers that read 226.  

So, I get to do the research on the owner all over again. 

 

[Gil Bang 26,020]

On 7/19/2023 at 10:41 AM, bluto said:

Starting to see some cracks in commercial RE dam that we all know are present. apartments bought 2 yrs ago that are selling off at 20% discount from then to today. Hearing of a class apartments in Tx trading around 6 cap. For the last 6-9 mos there just wasn’t much of any transaction material to support the assumption of falling values but seems like the fuse is running out. 
 

I’m no capital markets expert but have to

imagine massive implications as the losses are realized. Certainly will be issues on taxing jurisdictions. 

call me crazy, but I don't really consider apartments to be commercial.   Industrial, office, medical, etc sure.  I expect some of that shit to tank, but apartments I'm more optimistic about. 

[Armybrat 40,910]

Yep, people still have to have a place to live.

Office space demand is questionable because of downsizing & WFH folks.

Medical seems to be expanding like gangbusters around Central Texas though. 
Industrial distribution too - 24 million sq/ft is projected for the Texas 130 corridor in the next few years.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Armybrat

[DalTxHornFan 3,117]

30 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Yep, people still have to have a place to live.

Office space demand is questionable because of downsizing & WFH folks.

Medical seems to be expanding like gangbusters around Central Texas though. 
Industrial distribution too - 24 million sq/ft is projected for the Texas 130 corridor in the next few years.

I'm old enough to remember what happened in the 1980s.  I can see all of this boom dropping like a cow turd from a very tall cow.  I hope that I am wrong.

I wonder whether the stuff going down last week with the PSW guys is a bellwether.  You need to have deal flow going on to support that kind of operation.  Not saying ponzi scheme, but you have got to question how their investor's funds relate to specific projects.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by DalTxHornFan

[Armybrat 40,910]

You are correct.

It will happen when I’m getting a contract offer to sell our 25 acres.

Edited July 31, 2023 by Armybrat

[bluto 4,942]

20 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

call me crazy, but I don't really consider apartments to be commercial.   Industrial, office, medical, etc sure.  I expect some of that shit to tank, but apartments I'm more optimistic about. 

These things were foolishly bought on floating rates with assumption values only go up…. Well, there’s only a few ways for values to go up:

Increase rents - not happening much at all in Tx, hearing almost daily from clients about rents stagnating and falling. 

Cut expense - we know what insurance alone has done. Prop taxes stagnant to up as well. Everything else more expensive. 
 

Increase occupancy - more product coming online across the state every month and occupancy was 95%ish, only one way to go  

cheaper money - we won’t ever see rates like that again. 
 

so unless rents magically pop up again dramatically, apartment values have minimal tailwind.  And there’s only more product coming online. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

What the hell is going on in the market?  We are comfortably up having a nice boring day yesterday and we lose 50 basis points in 30 minutes, then open up today down 20. Why?  

[kmac30 416]

2018 we bought the house my wife had loved since she was young. We remodeled and moved in June 2019. Over the last few years, we have gotten more and more fed up with our current city and school district. In April I decided we were done with it all and we moved our daughter to another district about 20 minutes away. My younger twins finished out the year in their school and we have registered them in the new district for fall. I’m renting a house in that area to qualify.

We need to move but are having a hard time. We keep looking for the house to replace what we’re leaving. We put a contingent offer on a house that has been on and off the market since March. They’re not interested (after telling our realtor they would consider any offer). I’m having to get serious about selling my house but a little concerned we won’t have anywhere to go (rental might work but not sure we could fit). That would give us a lot more flexibility in the spring to jump in the right house (if it comes around).

There are a lot of people interested in my house. As soon as they heard we moved schools, the phone started ringing. Some are realistic, a lot are not. So then my wife starts thinking “are we making a mistake”. In the end it’s just a house and no matter how great it is, the nonsense going on around us isn’t going to stop.

Not sure what I’m looking for here, or just to write it out.

[Incredulity 11,683]

8 minutes ago, kmac30 said:

the nonsense going on around us isn’t going to stop.

not to derail or CR, but what is the issue that changes in 20 min?

How many years do you have left of school for your kids?

Could you look at the house rental as a cost of doing business(raising your kids)?

[kmac30 416]

not to derail or CR, but what is the issue that changes in 20 min?
How many years do you have left of school for your kids?
Could you look at the house rental as a cost of doing business(raising your kids)?

How the 2 cities are run. As of Dec 2022, 20-30 new apartment complexes were scheduled for our area. They’re changing the rules so developers can put in small streets with 40 foot lot lines. They build a neighborhood full of 1300 sq ft houses that aren’t even starter homes. They become rentals. City council doesn’t believe people want larger lots with homes that are 350k+. They don’t believe developers want that either.

We have 9 yrs left of school. We could absolutely rent or even buy a property to get us in district and stay in our house. Life would be easier to live in the district.

[Incredulity 11,683]

50 minutes ago, kmac30 said:

How the 2 cities are run. As of Dec 2022, 20-30 new apartment complexes were scheduled for our area. They’re changing the rules so developers can put in small streets with 40 foot lot lines. They build a neighborhood full of 1300 sq ft houses that aren’t even starter homes. They become rentals. City council doesn’t believe people want larger lots with homes that are 350k+. They don’t believe developers want that either.

More units in less space is definitely the push by many city bureaucrats these days. 

[Upgrayedd 5,818]

9 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

More units in less space is definitely the push by many city bureaucrats these days. 

Not just cities.  Developers too.  

[Chewbacca 7,785]

On 7/31/2023 at 11:41 AM, bluto said:

These things were foolishly bought on floating rates with assumption values only go up…. Well, there’s only a few ways for values to go up: 

This is not necessarily the case, BTW.  Unless you get an agency loan (which is very expensive and takes a really long time to get done), there is no such thing as a fully amortizing commercial RE loan.  You'll typically get a 5-10 year term (and life co's will sometimes go out to 15) and then you'll have a balloon payment due.  So your 6% loan now costs 9% in today's interest rate environment if you're unlucky enough to have loans coming due right now.

While I agree there has been much fuckery and buying of properties at crazy low cap rates the past few years, there are a lot of MF owners who did things right who are looking down the barrel of some really shitty choices.

[gmr548 16,616]

These things were foolishly bought on floating rates with assumption values only go up…. Well, there’s only a few ways for values to go up:
Increase rents - not happening much at all in Tx, hearing almost daily from clients about rents stagnating and falling. 

Cut expense - we know what insurance alone has done. Prop taxes stagnant to up as well. Everything else more expensive. 
 
Increase occupancy - more product coming online across the state every month and occupancy was 95%ish, only one way to go  
cheaper money - we won’t ever see rates like that again. 
 
so unless rents magically pop up again dramatically, apartment values have minimal tailwind.  And there’s only more product coming online. 

Everything you’re saying is applicable to these deals but they’re a relatively small portion the market, particularly as you look at bigger investors. Not seeing signs of systemic stress in the multifamily market as of yet.

[gmr548 16,616]

How the 2 cities are run. As of Dec 2022, 20-30 new apartment complexes were scheduled for our area. They’re changing the rules so developers can put in small streets with 40 foot lot lines. They build a neighborhood full of 1300 sq ft houses that aren’t even starter homes. They become rentals. City council doesn’t believe people want larger lots with homes that are 350k+. They don’t believe developers want that either.

We have 9 yrs left of school. We could absolutely rent or even buy a property to get us in district and stay in our house. Life would be easier to live in the district.

More units in less space is definitely the push by many city bureaucrats these days. 

Supply and demand. It’s that simple.

[Chewbacca 7,785]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

Supply and demand. It’s that simple.

 

And density is necessary.

[gmr548 16,616]

43 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

And density is necessary.

Just, you know, not in their backyards.

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Down another 20 basis points. Yay

 

[LCHorn 2,631]

Let me ask a question for @UTPhil2006, @Wulaw Horn, @Neonmoon--US citizen buyer on investment purchase, living abroad in Singapore most recent two years (per tax returns).  Maintains US credit history via family home (currently leased during sojourn away) and pulling credit with high scores isn't an issue. 

Can you make them a Fannie/Freddie loan?

[Neonmoon 38,130]

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Let me ask a question for @UTPhil2006, @Wulaw Horn, @Neonmoon--US citizen buyer on investment purchase, living abroad in Singapore most recent two years (per tax returns).  Maintains US credit history via family home (currently leased during sojourn away) and pulling credit with high scores isn't an issue. 

Can you make them a Fannie/Freddie loan?

Yes. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,152]

3 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Let me ask a question for @UTPhil2006, @Wulaw Horn, @Neonmoon--US citizen buyer on investment purchase, living abroad in Singapore most recent two years (per tax returns).  Maintains US credit history via family home (currently leased during sojourn away) and pulling credit with high scores isn't an issue. 

Can you make them a Fannie/Freddie loan?

Yeah- as long as you can show continuity of income you should be fine.