All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

4 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

You’ve already been wrong for a year, why would I agree to an extension?

This was a heavily telegraphed runup in interest rates and acting surprised with how work has dried up, is weird to me. Were you not telling everyone for years these are record lows and to take advantage now? Did you not mean it when you were telling clients then? 

 

Yes. But going from 2.75-8 in 18 months is not normal. 
higher doesn’t mean- highest in a generation in 12 or 15 months. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

Sounds like you have a new selling point then, peak interest rates. Buy now before lower rates push demand back up and home prices stop falling.
 

I won’t even bill you for that advice. Just don’t look under Misc admin escrow processing fee and complete the Docusign.

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

22 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Sounds like you have a new selling point then, peak interest rates. Buy now before lower rates push demand back up and home prices stop falling.
 

I won’t even bill you for that advice. Just don’t look under Misc admin escrow processing fee and complete the Docusign.

I mean- yeah- that is the plan. The best day to buy is always yesterday and today always beats tomorrow. That’s what happens when you are buying an appreciating asset combined with the lender having to honor todays interest rate while you can change the tens at any time. My OU are presenting that as if it’s bullshit but it’s how the market actually works. 
 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

Homes are always appreciating assets? I should tell everyone!

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

23 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Homes are always appreciating assets? I should tell everyone!

Always appreciating?  Of course not. Especially over a short enough time period. Held long enough?  Sure. And you have to live somewhere. 
the average American has the vast vast vast majority of their wealth due to home appreciation.  There are very few people whose life wouldn’t be better by buying a house, and generally the sooner in life you buy a house the better you do. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

While I'm a big "don't try to time the market guy" when it comes to the stock market, I'd hope you can see that your "yesterday and today is the best time to buy a home" doesn't compute with your "it's not always an appreciating asset" statement in the face of a fed that told everyone for the last year they are inflicting pain on borrowers.

If you are attempting to sell homes today at a 350k price now, while believing a recession is within a year from now and take that homes value with it, you aren't being forward with your client.

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

9 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

While I'm a big "don't try to time the market guy" when it comes to the stock market, I'd hope you can see that your "yesterday and today is the best time to buy a home" doesn't compute with your "it's not always an appreciating asset" statement in the face of a fed that told everyone for the last year they are inflicting pain on borrowers.

If you are attempting to sell homes today at a 350k price now, while believing a recession is within a year from now and take that homes value with it, you aren't being forward with your client.

I’m not trying to sell anyone shit- someone calls me up because they want to buy a house!  I’m not knocking on doors trying to convince anyone to buy a house- I don’t even suggest they do so. I literally answer my phone when someone calls me that wants help buying a house and I help them!
 

I also didn’t say houses always go up in value (I said yesterdays rate is always preferable to todays and today is preferable to waiting for tomorrows), but over a long enough time they always will (absent living in a place losing population which isn’t anywhere in Texas or Colorado where I’m licensed to do business, and I don’t expect either of those places to lose population in my lifetime), provided you aren’t forced to sell. And that long enough time period is generally a couple years- 5 at most. 

I actually have counseled people not to buy houses when they are dealing with a transient time period (less than 2 or 3 years) and just this past Friday I even told an old woman who was looking to buy an investment home across the street from her it wasn’t a good deal unless she had some other reason to buy because it wasn’t going to pencil out as a good investment at her time in life in this market environment.
 

She said she hoped her son would live there one day. I told her to talk to her son and see if he ever would. She had that conversation with him and called me up and told me he didn’t want to commit to that, he saw himself settling by his kids and not her, and she thanked me for being straight with her. 

But, the dude who’s buying a house with the intention of staying for a reasonable amount of time?  Literally almost always better off buying now as opposed to trying to time the market for the reasons already stated. 

If you guess wrong on timing the market you can get locked out of the market and lose out on the #1 wealth building tool the average American has. If you buy now and 2 years later your house is worth less and you keep living there then 5 years later it will be worth more and you will have provided for your family’s second greatest need after food (shelter) among the way. 
 

Home ownership is literally the thing that has built and fueled the American dream. I’m not fond of homeownership because of the business I’m in, I’m in the business I’m in because of my belief in the values both for an individual, and society at large, that come from homeownership. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

struck a nerve, I won

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

27 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

While I'm a big "don't try to time the market guy" when it comes to the stock market, I'd hope you can see that your "yesterday and today is the best time to buy a home" doesn't compute with your "it's not always an appreciating asset" statement in the face of a fed that told everyone for the last year they are inflicting pain on borrowers.

If you are attempting to sell homes today at a 350k price now, while believing a recession is within a year from now and take that homes value with it, you aren't being forward with your client.

2008 was a recession caused by the housing market, which is generally as bad as it gets for house prices. Homeowners sure did bad then. Oh wait- they didn’t:  

 

Home prices fully recovered by late 2012. If someone bought a house at the very peak of the recession in 2007 and held the property for 5 years, they made money in appreciation after 2012. It took 3.5 years for the recovery to begin after the recession began.

 

Also- rates drop during a recession (almost always) so you can often times end up with a lower payment by taking advantage of opportunities to refinance during those times as typically accommodation gets easier and rates go down. 
again, if you are buying for a couple years I’d suggest renting not owning, but as a general risk the price for being wrong sitting out buying if the market goes higher is really really bad while if you  buy and hold during a recession you are made whole while also having a place to live. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

People also lose their jobs to pay for homes in a recession.

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

1 minute ago, StassneyHorn said:

struck a nerve, I won

Ok cool Hookem. You didn’t strike any nerve with me. I love homeownership and am fine with talking about it with anyone. If this is some sort of bad faith gotcha game I guess I wasted 15 minutes of the last hour of my life responding to you. Congratulations I guess? 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

People also lose their jobs to pay for homes in a recession.

That happened to my mom and dad. They lived in their house 15 months without making a payment before they got foreclosed on and then got a $4,000 check for not stripping the place or trashing it on the way out. It was sad to watch. It was also a million percent better for them than if they were tenants somewhere. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

 

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Ok cool Hookem. You didn’t strike any nerve with me. I love homeownership and am fine with talking about it with anyone. If this is some sort of bad faith gotcha game I guess I wasted 15 minutes of the last hour of my life responding to you. Congratulations I guess? 

No youre just forgetting a pretty common thing that happens to homeowners during a recession

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

 

No youre just forgetting a pretty common thing that happens to homeowners during a recession

I’m not. I saw my mom and dad get foreclosed on. They were better off as owned that lost the house than as tenants. I saw lots of other people stop making payments and the end up back on their feet and catch up on their payments. That also is better than stuffing your landlord. They can evict within days. The bank takes 12 months plus generally to foreclose. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

This was not a bad faith game, just an exercise to poke some glaring holes in your "yesterday and today" mantra even when faced with your impending recession.
Buying a home before an impending recession because it takes 12 months to foreclose is certainly an argument that works for some pigmentations. They also would have whatever down payment money they didn't use for emergency purposes like that.

Edited November 2, 2023 by StassneyHorn

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

This was not a bad faith game, just an exercise to poke some glaring holes in your "yesterday and today" mantra even when faced with your impending recession.
Buying a home before an impending recession because it takes 12 months to foreclose is certainly an argument that works for some pigmentations.

I suspect there’s a recession.  I don’t know it with metaphysical certainty. If I’m wrong and prices go up 50k someone might be priced out. If I’m right and they are viewing a house as a place to live they aren’t going to sell for a lot of years they won’t be harmed. If they lose their job and can’t pay for a place to live they will STILL be better off owning. 
I’ve explained fully what I think is going to happen, what I believe about homeownership and how I operate as a professional in my job. You can think I’m full of shit and I promise I won’t lose a bit of sleep tonight. 
 

I literally sent this to my buddy 30 minutes before I stared on this thread:

++++++++++++++++++++++

I want this 100% disabled VA loan to close so badly. We will make money which is cool, but the biggest thing is it will change his life. I’ve got a good appraisal, working out 20k worth of debt to be paid by the seller which will save him 1000 a month in payments, and he will have a great new house he can move his wife, 2 kids and mother in law into while he has a base to settle down traveling the country. I went from 20/80 it will happen to 60/40. The coin is in the air and nothing else I can do now. They said they’d do it, but… he got turned down 2 times already by morons. Not because they didn’t get it done but because they ducked around, weren’t straight with him then lied. 
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++
 

copied even with typo on ducking. This isn’t some sort of act for me. This is how I live my life and what I believe. I know there’s a dozen people I can point to over the last 5 years whose lives were radically changed because I helped them do something other people said they couldn’t and it’s my favorite feeling in the world. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

Is there a fish or a cross on your car I should also know about?

[Gil Bang 25,999]

my preferred escrow company just shut down.   Just not enough volume to keep the doors open. 

The main EO found a new spot, but I assume that the receptionist and a couple of the assistants (not the fat one) are on the Pole somewhere. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

Big miss in the jobs report. 
Unemployment up. Wages down. Lost 100k jobs to revisions in the last 2 months (IOW those numbers were bullshit as I said at the time). 
Cue “it’s happening” GIF. 
employment is a lagging indicator. This wasn’t hard to see. Maybe it’s just a blip and I’m wrong/an idiot. 
anyway welcome news in the home industry. This should move rates away from 8 forever and I think we probably ease down below 7 (and stay there) by the end of the year (if not for average borrower at least the well qualified ones). 

[ChickenSandwich 9,849]

12 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Is there a fish or a cross on your car I should also know about?

 

Edited November 3, 2023 by ChickenSandwich

[ChickenSandwich 9,849]

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Big miss in the jobs report. 
Unemployment up. Wages down. Lost 100k jobs to revisions in the last 2 months (IOW those numbers were bullshit as I said at the time). 
Cue “it’s happening” GIF. 
employment is a lagging indicator. This wasn’t hard to see. Maybe it’s just a blip and I’m wrong/an idiot. 
anyway welcome news in the home industry. This should move rates away from 8 forever and I think we probably ease down below 7 (and stay there) by the end of the year (if not for average borrower at least the well qualified ones). 

US median household income slipped 2.3% last year to $74,580, the third consecutive year that incomes have decreased, per CBS.

 

Total US bankruptcy filings rose 13% in the twelve-month period ending Sept. 30, 2023, per the US Courts.

Edited November 3, 2023 by ChickenSandwich

[Neonmoon 38,130]

47 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Big miss in the jobs report. 
Unemployment up. Wages down. Lost 100k jobs to revisions in the last 2 months (IOW those numbers were bullshit as I said at the time). 
Cue “it’s happening” GIF. 
employment is a lagging indicator. This wasn’t hard to see. Maybe it’s just a blip and I’m wrong/an idiot. 
anyway welcome news in the home industry. This should move rates away from 8 forever and I think we probably ease down below 7 (and stay there) by the end of the year (if not for average borrower at least the well qualified ones). 

This past week

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

23 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I wouldn’t mind getting in the 4.5xx

I wouldn’t mind getting into the 4.4xx

[LCHorn 2,629]

So I wanted to chime in last night when I was reading @StassneyHorn and @Wulaw Horn before it kind of devolved into a debate on whether we're in a recession and then I passed out after getting the kids down to bed. 

I do think, in terms of Wu hearing consistently from his borrowers various economic concerns, there's a political part to this (this is a little unavoidably CR)--his part of North Houston/Kingwood is culturally aligned to the GOP (I would say MAGA but most of those folks don't have any money).  We've seen from surveys that the right's sense of their economic well being is very much in thrall to whichever party is in charge in the federal government (I'm sure this is somewhat true on the left but I'll leave any speculation on the reason for CR). 

TLDR: Wu's borrowers perceive themselves off as worse off than they really are.  Either way, it's a barrier to making a large purchase. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

35 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

So I wanted to chime in last night when I was reading @StassneyHorn and @Wulaw Horn before it kind of devolved into a debate on whether we're in a recession and then I passed out after getting the kids down to bed. 

I do think, in terms of Wu hearing consistently from his borrowers various economic concerns, there's a political part to this (this is a little unavoidably CR)--his part of North Houston/Kingwood is culturally aligned to the GOP (I would say MAGA but most of those folks don't have any money).  We've seen from surveys that the right's sense of their economic well being is very much in thrall to whichever party is in charge in the federal government (I'm sure this is somewhat true on the left but I'll leave any speculation on the reason for CR). 

TLDR: Wu's borrowers perceive themselves off as worse off than they really are.  Either way, it's a barrier to making a large purchase. 

I do more business outside that area than inside it. The divide is office/professional/government v entrepreneurial/small business/blue collar. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Big miss in the jobs report. 
Unemployment up. Wages down. Lost 100k jobs to revisions in the last 2 months (IOW those numbers were bullshit as I said at the time). 
Cue “it’s happening” GIF. 
employment is a lagging indicator. This wasn’t hard to see. Maybe it’s just a blip and I’m wrong/an idiot. 
anyway welcome news in the home industry. This should move rates away from 8 forever and I think we probably ease down below 7 (and stay there) by the end of the year (if not for average borrower at least the well qualified ones). 

Even with the revisions the numbers met or exceeded expectations

165k revised vs 170k expectations in August, 5k less 

297k revised Vs 170k expected in September, 127k more 

[LCHorn 2,629]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Even with the revisions the numbers met or exceeded expectations

That's not what today's bond market reaction is telling us. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

I quite literally posted the expected numbers against the revised. 

[StassneyHorn 6,627]

On 11/3/2023 at 6:26 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

US median household income slipped 2.3% last year to $74,580, the third consecutive year that incomes have decreased, per CBS.

 

Total US bankruptcy filings rose 13% in the twelve-month period ending Sept. 30, 2023, per the US Courts.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/income-down-17-states-midwest-northeast-inflation/
 

67% of states had no decreases or losses in income since Chicken sandwich didn’t paste a link

[Neonmoon 38,130]

There's something special about getting that "yes, let's lock that in" email 30 seconds after the "Price Deterioration" email. 

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

Any idea what is going on today in the market?  Literally zero economic news out and we are down 42 bips.  Profit taking from a big week last week?

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Any idea what is going on today in the market?  Literally zero economic news out and we are down 42 bips.  Profit taking from a big week last week?

Just “recovering” from a 25 point 3 day drop. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Just “recovering” from a 25 point 3 day drop. 

That's what I figured with "profit taking"

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That's what I figured with "profit taking"

Yup. Not the best but I’ll gladly make a 25 down for 10 up trade in this market 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

5 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yup. Not the best but I’ll gladly make a 25 down for 10 up trade in this market 

Fo sho

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

And got a good portion of the losses back today so far 

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

On 11/3/2023 at 9:19 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

I wouldn’t mind getting into the 4.4xx

Maybe tomorrow. Close. 

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

17 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Maybe tomorrow. Close. 

@Wulaw Horn jinxed it. Habib prob said something 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

54 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

@Wulaw Horn jinxed it. Habib prob said something 

We actually did break below 4.5 briefly yesterday evening in after hours trading. 
mbs have not had as good a run as 10 year lately. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

Down 41 bips now today- fun fun fun.  Fed Chair a little hawkish in his remarks.  Then had a D- treasury auction today. None of that seems like it should be worth 50 points, but the market just can't wait to get all emo and sell sell sell. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

56 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

I don't understand all the bips and points talk but from what I was reading, the interest rate on a 30 year is the lowest it's been in over 1 year now this week. That's good news, but is it the start of a trend line going down or just a random blip?

That’s not accurate. More like a month on the interest rates on 30’s years. 
we don’t know if it’s the start of a trend line or a blip. I think everyone in the industry is betting rates go down and somewhat significantly,  it I don’t think anyone expects that to happen tomorrow per se. 

[nbmishoid 962]

52 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/us-30-year-mortgage-rate-tumbles-by-most-in-more-than-a-year

I think I read "lowest" but really it's about the % drop?

I’m still recalling the 13.5% loan we newlyweds had on our house in Bakersfield.  Everything looked great after that.

[nbmishoid 962]

It was $144k for new build 2200 sf plus large pool.  Loan was just under $100k, payment near $1400

[Wulaw Horn 19,147]

2 hours ago, BeardIP said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-08/us-30-year-mortgage-rate-tumbles-by-most-in-more-than-a-year

I think I read "lowest" but really it's about the % drop?

That makes a lot more sense. This spring I had some people in there in the low 5’s for a couple week stretch- maybe March?  Late February?  

[UT_OB1 2,224]

3 hours ago, nbmishoid said:

It was $144k for new build 2200 sf plus large pool.  Loan was just under $100k, payment near $1400

nbm next birthday 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

Last 2 days lost 50 basis points. Ugh. 
 

2 steps forward, 1 step back 

[Incredulity 11,682]

4 hours ago, nbmishoid said:

It was $144k for new build 2200 sf plus large pool.  Loan was just under $100k, payment near $1400

1985?

[Neonmoon 38,130]

One of my realtor partners just sent over a client, and they said they are meeting with three lenders today referred by their realtor. They are writing down all the fees and made up rates so they can compare, and choose the best deal. 

Why don't people do the same thing with realtors?

 

 

 

[UTPhil2006 3,809]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

One of my realtor partners just sent over a client, and they said they are meeting with three lenders today referred by their realtor. They are writing down all the fees and made up rates so they can compare, and choose the best deal. 

Why don't people do the same thing with realtors?

 

 

 

What would the realtor comparison be? Which one will do it for less than 3%?

[Neonmoon 38,130]

5 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

What would the realtor comparison be? Which one will do it for less than 3%?

A client interviews three realtors, asks them what their fees are, and what services they offer for said fees, and then decides what realtor to use based on the answers. 

Most people use whatever realtor is in their friend circle, or a friend of a friend type thing.