All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

52 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

PPI came in hot as fucK

we going back up fast

At least it can’t go up Monday 

[Pato del Muerto 52,308]

Get my keys today. There was a week to two where I wondered about asking for a reprice based on this thread, but it seems like I’m in good shape.  Will need a refi in the next 7 years when rates hit the 4s (or 3s) so put me on the calendar if you can do business  in WA or get a referral fee from someone who can. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

19 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Get my keys today. There was a week to two where I wondered about asking for a reprice based on this thread, but it seems like I’m in good shape.  Will need a refi in the next 7 years when rates hit the 4s (or 3s) so put me on the calendar if you can do business  in WA or get a referral fee from someone who can. 

Congrats sir.  

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

My theory (and it’s probably total bullshit/ but as someone who has owned professional service businesses my whole life I understand the mindset ) is that humans working service businesses hold off on raising prices as long as humanly possible because the idea of doing less units is terrifying (and raising prices leads to less units), but with consumer being maxed out (service providers are consumers for everything that does not involve them selling their services) and inflation running very hot the last 2.5 or 3 years the upward price pressure is very real. 

Then, this happens in January, after a lot of people see a P&L for their business, along with January being a logical time to roll out changes (new years resolution- rethinking life- rethinking business- rethinking prices) and you have this pop that’s isolated to one month and goes back down to expected or lower next month especially with cost of goods dropping. 

Like I said, this is just a WAG and I could be completely wrong but it makes some sense to me. I can’t imagine services driving inflation for a meaningful way for a long time. It’s too competitive a market and someone will always be willing to undercut someone else and take market share. 

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

28 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Get my keys today. There was a week to two where I wondered about asking for a reprice based on this thread, but it seems like I’m in good shape.  Will need a refi in the next 7 years when rates hit the 4s (or 3s) so put me on the calendar if you can do business  in WA or get a referral fee from someone who can. 

We can do all 50

[Incredulity 11,527]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My theory (and it’s probably total bullshit/ but as someone who has owned professional service businesses my whole life I understand the mindset ) is that humans working service businesses hold off on raising prices as long as humanly possible because the idea of doing less units is terrifying (and raising prices leads to less units), but with consumer being maxed out (service providers are consumers for everything that does not involve them selling their services) and inflation running very hot the last 2.5 or 3 years the upward price pressure is very real. 

Then, this happens in January, after a lot of people see a P&L for their business, along with January being a logical time to roll out changes (new years resolution- rethinking life- rethinking business- rethinking prices) and you have this pop that’s isolated to one month and goes back down to expected or lower next month especially with cost of goods dropping. 

Like I said, this is just a WAG and I could be completely wrong but it makes some sense to me. I can’t imagine services driving inflation for a meaningful way for a long time. It’s too competitive a market and someone will always be willing to undercut someone else and take market share. 

tangentially-

 

I have come to despise January and the start of each new year. 

Two main reasons, nobody does any work for the last several weeks of the year, from Thanksgiving on in some cases, and the mad rush to catch up on stuff that should have been done weeks ago is evident in January.  Second, related to your "new years resolution" comment, dependable workers develop passive aggressive bi-polar disorder and start in with demands for compensation increases/promotions/etc.... even in cases where a year end review was completed and everyone agreed with the conclusions.  exhausting.

 

So I defiantly think you are on to something with the calendar roll over and changes happening to pricing broadly.

[Neonmoon 38,127]

Ruh roh 

DOJ filed a statement of interest and asks court to deny settlement of commission lawsuit and end seller paid commissions 

https://www.justice.gov/d9/2024-02/420087.pdf

 

[Dbeasy 14,950]

9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My theory (and it’s probably total bullshit/ but as someone who has owned professional service businesses my whole life I understand the mindset ) is that humans working service businesses hold off on raising prices as long as humanly possible because the idea of doing less units is terrifying (and raising prices leads to less units), but with consumer being maxed out (service providers are consumers for everything that does not involve them selling their services) and inflation running very hot the last 2.5 or 3 years the upward price pressure is very real. 

Then, this happens in January, after a lot of people see a P&L for their business, along with January being a logical time to roll out changes (new years resolution- rethinking life- rethinking business- rethinking prices) and you have this pop that’s isolated to one month and goes back down to expected or lower next month especially with cost of goods dropping. 

Like I said, this is just a WAG and I could be completely wrong but it makes some sense to me. I can’t imagine services driving inflation for a meaningful way for a long time. It’s too competitive a market and someone will always be willing to undercut someone else and take market share. 

Maybe, but I’ve wondered about the opposite scenario. Airlines, healthcare, manufacturing, etc all have to keep raising pay, and productivity improvements are tougher to achieve in services vs goods. AI will help a bit. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Maybe, but I’ve wondered about the opposite scenario. Airlines, healthcare, manufacturing, etc all have to keep raising pay, and productivity improvements are tougher to achieve in services vs goods. AI will help a bit. 

It’s a theory. 
had lunch with my buddy today that’s a lawyer and he said they always roll out their pricing changes in January. 

[Dbeasy 14,950]

12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s a theory. 
had lunch with my buddy today that’s a lawyer and he said they always roll out their pricing changes in January. 

I do think a lot of companies roll out increases in January. So the key is for the fed action to stop the continued circle of increases that is currently happening. Unfortunately I bet they can only do that with a pretty hard landing. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I do think a lot of companies roll out increases in January. So the key is for the fed action to stop the continued circle of increases that is currently happening. Unfortunately I bet they can only do that with a pretty hard landing. 

If goods are down that’s a bigger driver than devices on the inflation number imo. Long term anyway. 

[TreatyOak 16,147]

So my business partner and I sold our short term rental property in Austin. We bought it in 2021. Did awesome for the first year and half, then rentals fell way down. Place had a perfect location just off of the best part of South Congress. We would be booked by remote workers for a month at a time.
 

Then in 2023, whammo, nada. We had exemplary ratings (we included local foods for free and a restaurant gift card cause we’re awesome) but the market changed and after appearing on page 1 of a search for a South Congress location, we fell to page 7,  as the market flooded with new properties. We sold at a profit (thank heavens) but we were starting to look at a serious loss as rentals had dwindled to key Austin weekends. 
 

Anyone else experience the same? Was it due to people pulling their properties off the sales market and converting them to STRs? Curious to hear your views. 

[Neonmoon 38,127]

I’ve heard similar stories in WNC. Supply and demand. The market was flooded with STR due to easy money. Demand side has now weakened. Covid high wore off. Consumer sentiment tanking. High Credit Card debt. Pick your reason de jour. 

(for all crash bros, even if every STR went on market, we would still be lacking inventory)

[hornian 5,201]

7 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

So my business partner and I sold our short term rental property in Austin. We bought it in 2021. Did awesome for the first year and half, then rentals fell way down. Place had a perfect location just off of the best part of South Congress. We would be booked by remote workers for a month at a time.
 

Then in 2023, whammo, nada. We had exemplary ratings (we included local foods for free and a restaurant gift card cause we’re awesome) but the market changed and after appearing on page 1 of a search for a South Congress location, we fell to page 7,  as the market flooded with new properties. We sold at a profit (thank heavens) but we were starting to look at a serious loss as rentals had dwindled to key Austin weekends. 
 

Anyone else experience the same? Was it due to people pulling their properties off the sales market and converting them to STRs? Curious to hear your views. 

Just curious, and no judgment - did you sell to another investor, or to someone who plans to use it as a full time residence?

[TreatyOak 16,147]

3 minutes ago, hornian said:

Just curious, and no judgment - did you sell to another investor, or to someone who plans to use it as a full time residence?

We sold to other investors and we don't think their plan made any sense. They are a husband and wife in NYC and want to do remote, short-term rentals in Austin. Our little complex used to be completely filled w rentals. Now the parking lot is empty, so the market has def. dwindled. Also, even though we had outfitted the place with really nice, brand-new stuff, they only wanted to retain the bed and sleeper-sofa, so we took everything out, which took the property off the market, which meant they had to cancel the last few reservations we had for COTA and ACL weekends.

So they lost the money from those rentals and the scheduled renters were FURIOUS with us. We explained that we didn't own the property anymore! At least the poor renters didn't lose any money but they had to find new places. We felt bad about it but we were so glad to get out of the market and still stay ahead. Our little one-bedroom condo was awesome, but it couldn't compete w the explosion of three bedroom homes on the market in that neighborhood with a pool.  Guessing those are homes people pulled off the sales market. 

However, I do have friends from Austin who are doing great at it. They have a beautiful, five-bedroom house with a great pool outside the city limits, and it's always rented out to weekend engagement parties, etc. Now they live in NYC, so it can be done.   

[StassneyHorn 6,534]

19 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

So my business partner and I sold our short term rental property in Austin. We bought it in 2021. Did awesome for the first year and half, then rentals fell way down. Place had a perfect location just off of the best part of South Congress. We would be booked by remote workers for a month at a time.
 

Then in 2023, whammo, nada. We had exemplary ratings (we included local foods for free and a restaurant gift card cause we’re awesome) but the market changed and after appearing on page 1 of a search for a South Congress location, we fell to page 7,  as the market flooded with new properties. We sold at a profit (thank heavens) but we were starting to look at a serious loss as rentals had dwindled to key Austin weekends. 
 

Anyone else experience the same? Was it due to people pulling their properties off the sales market and converting them to STRs? Curious to hear your views. 

Hotels have adjusted to the competition while Airbnb continues to add fees and cities impose taxes. I found hotels in San Diego, Costa Mesa, and Culver City under 100 dollars while Airbnb’s would advertise around 150 but always end up at $250

[TreatyOak 16,147]

5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Hotels have adjusted to the competition while Airbnb continues to add fees and cities impose taxes. I found hotels in San Diego, Costa Mesa, and Culver City under 100 dollars while Airbnb’s would advertise around 150 but always end up at $250

Agreed. I have had both great and dodgy AirBnB experiences. The novelty has worn off for us and probably a large segment of the population. We have migrated back to hotels. I wish I had entered the STR purchasing market sooner but glad we did it. I hated selling the property but def dodged a financial bullet. 

[UT_OB1 2,200]

20 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

So my business partner and I sold our short term rental property in Austin. We bought it in 2021. Did awesome for the first year and half, then rentals fell way down. Place had a perfect location just off of the best part of South Congress. We would be booked by remote workers for a month at a time.
 

Then in 2023, whammo, nada. We had exemplary ratings (we included local foods for free and a restaurant gift card cause we’re awesome) but the market changed and after appearing on page 1 of a search for a South Congress location, we fell to page 7,  as the market flooded with new properties. We sold at a profit (thank heavens) but we were starting to look at a serious loss as rentals had dwindled to key Austin weekends. 
 

Anyone else experience the same? Was it due to people pulling their properties off the sales market and converting them to STRs? Curious to hear your views. 

We bought 2 places in 2018 and 2019 in Galveston and fixed them up to Airbnb. One 2-1 and one 4-2 w 2 car garage, very large yard for Galveston, and space to park an RV.  2020 and 2021 were great. 2022 started strong but started falling off. We converted the 2-1 to a long term rental before the end of 2022 because the shrinking extra wasn’t worth the headaches.  2023 probably fell off 20-30%. We like the 4-2 as a personal home, and thought we may move there some day after the kids move out, but taxes and insurance have gone up so much with the decrease in rents we just can’t afford it. We listed it last week. Im pretty sad about getting rid of it. Kids were 5 and 8 and got to spend a lot of time “helping” me with repairs but getting mainly to walk/bike to the beach. I will be happy being done with STR. Constant wear and tear after all the hours spent fixing it can get to you. 

[Gravy Train 974]

I can't ever AirBnB out of principle-- SFHs should be occupied by families, not leveraged as speculative assets.  Doesn't help that AirBnB is a shill organization while LLPAs, insurance, and property taxes make it a non-starter now.  The fuck I'm going to subsidize someone else's investment. 

[bluto 4,871]

As somebody who loathes staying in a hotel, happy to hear that Airbnb schedules are freeing up. 

[Gil Bang 25,857]

I built a studio on my property and was doing the travel nurse rental thing. Well, I still am, but my current tenant isn't a nurse, he's an apprentice lineman, and the union sent him to a local company for a year. 

He's actually better than a nurse, because he works days and the nurses I had worked nights.  Now I can make all the noise I want in the daytime.

I had two nurses, one from Canada and one from SAT.   Both very nice.  Canuck was a smoke show, SA girl is into girls.   

[UT_OB1 2,200]

Pictures aren’t showing up on my phone. Of the nurses. 

[Sam Lin 3,540]

Been totally disappointed in my Airbnb stays to date. I opt for hotels when possible now.

[Captainant 27,266]

AirBNB/VRBO is nice if you're renting a whole ass house for a large group of people, but if it's something that you could cover with a hotel you should probably just book a hotel

[Incredulity 11,527]

10 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

The fuck I'm going to subsidize someone else's investment

Who is going to tell him?

[Gil Bang 25,857]

2 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Pictures aren’t showing up on my phone. Of the nurses. 

Yeah, sorry.  

Canadian was pretty, pretty, pretty good.  San Antonio gal was sweet, but...did I mention that she was a nice lesbian?  Complete with a fucking Subaru (100% serious).

[UT_OB1 2,200]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

AirBNB/VRBO is nice if you're renting a whole ass house for a large group of people, but if it's something that you could cover with a hotel you should probably just book a hotel

Pretty much. Unless the STR owner lives on the same property, it’s impossible to hire people to clean and maintain and have lower costs for those than a hotel with a full time staff. So competing against hotels for ppl that need a small place to drop their crap, shower, and sleep for 2 nights while they see the town doesn’t work. You’re looking for people that need 4 rooms, or want to grill, have a full kitchen, want a yard for their kids/pets, or want an actual house while they travel for a week or three. 

[TreatyOak 16,147]

8 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Pretty much. Unless the STR owner lives on the same property, it’s impossible to hire people to clean and maintain and have lower costs for those than a hotel with a full time staff. So competing against hotels for ppl that need a small place to drop their crap, shower, and sleep for 2 nights while they see the town doesn’t work. You’re looking for people that need 4 rooms, or want to grill, have a full kitchen, want a yard for their kids/pets, or want an actual house while they travel for a week or three. 

I had to learn this lesson the hard way. Glad we got out in time to still make it profitable, but def dodged a bullet.

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

11 hours ago, Captainant said:

AirBNB/VRBO is nice if you're renting a whole ass house for a large group of people, but if it's something that you could cover with a hotel you should probably just book a hotel

This is where I’m at. If it’s 4-5+ AirBnB is easier, bigger, and likely cheaper. Anything less and the hotel and lack of hassles and usually price make it the better option. Both have their benefits but the price changes have minimized the gap AirBnB used to have over hotels imo 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,127]

A lot of the AirBNB/VRBO went from trying to help pay on their long term investment they personally used to trying to use it as an income source. Probably better options for the time/capital required.

[Neonmoon 38,127]

Barry sends Alert to Lock an hour after our reprice. 

Niiice

[Neonmoon 38,127]

Live look at February sucking

 

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

35 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Live look at February sucking

 

Now in gif form

[BearSchlong 8,076]

AirBNB/VRBO is nice if you're renting a whole ass house for a large group of people, but if it's something that you could cover with a hotel you should probably just book a hotel

This. Wonderful for family beach house or mountain vacations.

I’m at my work hotel in Costa Mesa about to leave for a VRBO on Catalina.

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Live look at February sucking

 

Thanks for posting. 
looked at my wife yesterday when we were at Coca Cola museum in Atlanta and it showed all my texts- first on day was +4, then -7, then -17, then minus 23 and I was like- I don’t know if I can do a 3rd year in a row of this horseshjt. 

[LCHorn 2,574]

I unsubscribed to Barry yesterday.  It’s cleansing.

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

I don’t know whether to be scared or honored 

[Neonmoon 38,127]

I thought you got high and made an AI sock 

[LTtxfan 48,905]

Generative Phil

 

 

 

Edited February 23 by LTtxfan

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

28 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I thought you got high and made an AI sock 

Let’s see how he sells before I claim him or not 

[Eastwood 4,394]

Well, it’s better than Myanmar terrorists…

[Pato del Muerto 52,308]

He appears to be plant based

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

21 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Thanks for posting. 
looked at my wife yesterday when we were at Coca Cola museum in Atlanta and it showed all my texts- first on day was +4, then -7, then -17, then minus 23 and I was like- I don’t know if I can do a 3rd year in a row of this horseshjt. 

I could definitely see you as a sabermetrics consultant/play by play or PA announcer/podcaster for a team. No bad mornings in that. 

[Gatorubet 30,045]

6 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I could definitely see you as a sabermetrics consultant/play by play or PA announcer/podcaster for a team. No bad mornings in that. 

Any more of this bad news shit and I could see Wulaw sitting under the overpass with a cardboard sign that says “WILL EXPLAIN CRYPTO FOR FOOD”

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

Hopefully todays ~.07 drop will talk him off the ledge. Hopefully much of the same next week ending the month. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Any more of this bad news shit and I could see Wulaw sitting under the overpass with a cardboard sign that says “WILL EXPLAIN CRYPTO FOR FOOD”

I don’t understand crypto but yeah. It’s just a constant mind fuck man. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,962]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Hopefully todays ~.07 drop will talk him off the ledge. Hopefully much of the same next week ending the month. 

It would be nice. I just want to get back to where we were when Ishbia kicked off refi 100

[Gatorubet 30,045]

10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t understand crypto but yeah. It’s just a constant mind fuck man. 

that was just the Surly inside baseball jokes about crypto Buddy. I feels ya

 

 

[UTPhil2006 3,789]

13 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It would be nice. I just want to get back to where we were when Ishbia kicked off refi 100

He hasn’t responded and I offered him Double or nothing but feeling pretty good about locks on Monday 

[mchookem 16,053]

On 2/23/2024 at 2:28 PM, Gatorubet said:

Any more of this bad news shit and I could see Wulaw sitting under the overpass with a cardboard sign that says “WILL EXPLAIN CRYPTO FOR FOOD”

a really short overpass.