All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[jimmyjazz 45918]

44 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I've heard it definitely was.  One of the few places where values are dropping.

I posted this on the inflation thread and got some pushback, but I don't really care.  At a very basic aggregate analysis, Austin residential prices have been dropping since summer 2022.  They're currently down ~ 23%, and approximately even with spring 2021 pricing.  I took the data from the Texas A&M real estate website, which seems pretty legit compared to that of Austin Board of Realtors, etc.

 

Edited April 2 by jimmyjazz

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Is the Austin home market cracking?  I saw the story in the WSJ a few weeks ago and now this:

This person is really dumb. I want to know who employs them so I can short the stock. In no way is this evidence of the market cracking. This is further evidence that successful people (aka people that make lots of money) can be really fucking stupid. 

The majority of lenders sells loans to investors after closing them so they have more money to lend to other people. It’s not because the loan is risky, that’s stupid. In fact, it’s a sign the loan is not risky since they can easily sell it. 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

27 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I posted this on the inflation thread and got some pushback, but I don't really care.  At a very basic aggregate analysis, Austin residential prices have been dropping since summer 2022.  They're currently down ~ 23%, and approximately even with spring 2021 pricing.  I took the data from the Texas A&M real estate website, which seems pretty legit compared to that of Austin Board of Realtors, etc.

 

Here is a more recent metric. Down -14.5% from peak. I trust Freddie Mac data more than some fucking Aggy 
 

 

the above graph is most down metros. Below is the most up metros 

[jimmyjazz 45918]

2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I trust Freddie Mac data more than some fucking Aggy 

Understood, but at least it's not a bunch of local Realtor data, which kinda screams "conflict".

Also, my data was for Austin proper, not Austin MSA, which has seemingly been a little less susceptible to downward price pressure.

 

Edited April 3 by jimmyjazz

[Dbeasy 15048]

42 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I posted this on the inflation thread and got some pushback, but I don't really care.  At a very basic aggregate analysis, Austin residential prices have been dropping since summer 2022.  They're currently down ~ 23%, and approximately even with spring 2021 pricing.  I took the data from the Texas A&M real estate website, which seems pretty legit compared to that of Austin Board of Realtors, etc.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Here is a more recent metric. Down -14.5% from peak. I trust Freddie Mac data more than some fucking Aggy 
 

 

the above graph is most down metros. Below is the most up metros 

 

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Understood, but at least it's not a bunch of local Realtor data, which kinda screams "conflict".

Also, my data was for Austin proper, not Austin MSA, which has seemingly been a little less susceptible to downward price pressure.

 

All this data looks correct.  And the ABoR data should be ok because its pulled directly from MLS data. Here is through February.  My experience is that prices were still dropping though December/January and stabilized in February/March.  If you look at JimmyJazz trend line, the current prices are just about back on the trend line.  2022 was ridiculous.

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

UWM sued for steering

Actual Court Filing

UWM sued for steering. It will be interesting what happens to this case. Probably nothing as UWM has deep pockets, but when I pull up the broker production in my town. They are 100% UWM. Nothing wrong with that as they probably have the best price/product/system but I always chuckle a little when I hear the “we shop so you don’t have to” sales line 

I know @Wulaw Horn is going to come off the top rope in 3…2…

[UTPhil2006 3807]

200 words or less please @Wulaw Horn

[Surly Bevo 24908]

For the muckraker article...

https://hntrbrk.com/uwm/

[LCHorn 2620]

All I know is that I had a great sideline seat in 2007 when the brokers got fucked by the regulators and it looked to me like the mortgage bankers were able to protect themselves.

 

17 years later and I think the independent mortgage bankers are vulnerable and wholesale banks like UWM and Rocket appear to have grown sufficiently large that they have a created a target on their back.  I wonder if this lawsuit is the first cannon shot.  

5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Probably nothing as UWM has deep pockets

You’re relatively new to this and haven’t watched banks disappear overnight like that scene in Brand of Brothers where they faded out all the Currahee guys who didn’t make it to Berchtesgarden.  Everyone thought Countrywide had deep pockets, too.  

[DCA_HORN 725]

On 4/2/2024 at 5:18 PM, Neonmoon said:

This person is really dumb. I want to know who employs them so I can short the stock. In no way is this evidence of the market cracking. This is further evidence that successful people (aka people that make lots of money) can be really fucking stupid. 

The majority of lenders sells loans to investors after closing them so they have more money to lend to other people. It’s not because the loan is risky, that’s stupid. In fact, it’s a sign the loan is not risky since they can easily sell it. 

 

 

It'd almost as if we've seen this before except not in Texas. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

On 3/15/2024 at 6:18 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

And that’s fair. Absolutely is. I try to explain my value both mortgage and real estate and try to get the most value for using us. I feel like I’ve been pretty on point on that with you guys. 

Quoted for truth. I feel like I’ve been very transparent for 17 years with y’all. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

7 hours ago, LCHorn said:

All I know is that I had a great sideline seat in 2007 when the brokers got fucked by the regulators and it looked to me like the mortgage bankers were able to protect themselves.

17 years later and I think the independent mortgage bankers are vulnerable and wholesale banks like UWM and Rocket appear to have grown sufficiently large that they have a created a target on their back.  I wonder if this lawsuit is the first cannon shot.  

You’re relatively new to this and haven’t watched banks disappear overnight like that scene in Brand of Brothers where they faded out all the Currahee guys who didn’t make it to Berchtesgarden.  Everyone thought Countrywide had deep pockets, too.  

I see your point, but these scenarios are a little different. Countrywide had deep pockets, but their implosion was to due with subprime exposure and fraud. UWM isn’t making bad loans to unqualified borrowers or submitting fraudulent loans to GSEs. They required brokers to sign agreements  (spoilered). I don’t know the legalities of it or enforcing it, but they clearly do enforce it. (A Florida district judge dismissed a similar case due to personal jurisdiction, but nothing about the merits of allegation)

Spoiler

 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

While I can’t speak for a top 100 guy, I can say that UWM puts out the best rates almost 95% of the time, and if it was the other 5% we used them as @Dbeasy Can attest. UWM is also incredible at turn times. Like stupid good. I presume it’s another pointless shot across the bow in the Dan Gilbert/Mat Ishbia fight 

[Incredulity 11669]

4 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I don’t know the legalities of it or enforcing it,

I am not a lawyer and nor do I work in the mortgage business.  Contractual stipulations barring an "independent" businesses doing business with other businesses seems rife with opportunity for a motivated lawyer to start nailing asses.

[Surly Bevo 24908]

The problem for UWM or others like them is that they don't have "deep pockets". They have great access to credit via their warehouse lines but for them or anybody else in that game if that were to go away the game is up and right quick.  

The basic allegation is that the arrangement post "ultimatum" (or whatever you want to call it) has lead brokers to deliver in many instances substantially all of their loans to UWM when a better option for the consumer cost-wise was available thus breaking the general fiduciary duty an independent broker has to their client's best interests above their own.  

Now that said read another article last night that the collaborators on the research and article I posted have a significant short position in UWM (of course) but I am reminded that Burry, Eisman, Lippman et al also had significant short positions underpinning their motivations.....didn't make them wrong.

So who knows, but could be interesting to see how it all plays out.  

Edited April 4 by Surly Bevo

[LCHorn 2620]

53 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

The problem for UWM or others like them is that they don't have "deep pockets".

That was kind of my point but I also don’t have deep insight into what UWM and Rocket may have done to mitigate this.  In 2007 lots of banks were alive yesterday, dead today because they really didn’t have assets to speak of-they were middle men that sold aggregated loans to other entities.  If those entities aren’t buying or in smaller quantities it can cause cash flow problems super quick.  

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

This is so fucking dumb. 
to be clear- I don’t even like UWM. I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them. I’m a too 100 broker in the country for them (#6 in the state of Texas) not because I like them but because I can’t afford not to use them. My average clear to close is less than 10 days in an industry where 44 days is average and 30 is considered doing well, and their pricing is pretty good too. 
Mat gonna go to the mattresses over this I bet. 
I also have sent 2M to other than UWM this year. Thats more than the average originator has originated so far this year btw. 

Edited April 5 by Wulaw Horn

[UTPhil2006 3807]

119 words well done. 

[Storm the Field 5294]

10-year edging higher on a strong March jobs report:

Participation rate up from 62.5% to 62.7%

January and February revised higher by a net 22K jobs.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

12 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

10-year edging higher on a strong March jobs report:

Participation rate up from 62.5% to 62.7%

January and February revised higher by a net 22K jobs.

 

I locked 9 deals yesterday in anticipation of this report being strong. Nice to finally be on the right side of one. 
MBS down 21. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

1 step forward 2 back every time on the 10 year

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

Barry Habib has the Cancer- going into starting his chemo next week.  

[LCHorn 2620]

I thought he had already had it before.  Maybe I'm confusing it with another medical issue. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

5 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I thought he had already had it before.  Maybe I'm confusing it with another medical issue. 

Maybe?  He's starting Chemo next week he said.  

[TreatyOak 16313]

I have a question for the real estate experts here. We own a second home in Lakeway that we currently rent. (It used to have lake views, lol, when there was a lake). Super-wiz NYC investment banker daughter wants to buy a condo in NYC. Can we sell the Lakeway property and use the money to help her purchase a condo in NYC and avoid capital gains taxes if she is the owner of the condo?  

[Gil Bang 25951]

1 hour ago, TreatyOak said:

I have a question for the real estate experts here. We own a second home in Lakeway that we currently rent. (It used to have lake views, lol, when there was a lake). Super-wiz NYC investment banker daughter wants to buy a condo in NYC. Can we sell the Lakeway property and use the money to help her purchase a condo in NYC and avoid capital gains taxes if she is the owner of the condo?  

I don't claim to be a tax expert, but I think the answer is no.  The only way to avoid taxes is to do a 1039 into another "like" property, or move into the house for 2 years.  

Is she buying a condo, or a co-op? (co-ops are very common in NYC).  If she's buying a condo, you might get away with it if you purchase as tenants-in-common, but then again, I don't know shit about fuck.

[UTPhil2006 3807]

3 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

I don't claim to be a tax expert, but I think the answer is no.  The only way to avoid taxes is to do a 1039 into another "like" property, or move into the house for 2 years.  

Is she buying a condo, or a co-op? (co-ops are very common in NYC).  If she's buying a condo, you might get away with it if you purchase as tenants-in-common, but then again, I don't know shit about fuck.

Yeah I’m wondering about being on the note with her may help 

[TreatyOak 16313]

1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

I don't claim to be a tax expert, but I think the answer is no.  The only way to avoid taxes is to do a 1039 into another "like" property, or move into the house for 2 years.  

Is she buying a condo, or a co-op? (co-ops are very common in NYC).  If she's buying a condo, you might get away with it if you purchase as tenants-in-common, but then again, I don't know shit about fuck.

Thanks for the info. I think you’re right.  Thinking it will be a condo. We used to live/own a co-op in NYC. I never really understood that we actually owned shares in the co-op, rather than the apartment. Hated selling it, but co-op rules required you to live in it for a year every two years. So we would try to time the sale/purchase for next Spring. Thanks again. 

[UT_OB1 2220]

@UTPhil2006 and the other Texas real estate guys/gals - have any of you heard of Guerilla Investments?  They made an offer on a house we have listed for sale that is Subject To. I have heard of these but have zero experience with them. From the details in the offer, it sounds like a good deal. Good deals make me suspicious though, on the other hand we ReFi when rates were super low, and any rate these days will be almost twice as high 

Thoughts?

[UT_OB1 2220]

Too late to edit, but probably worth mentioning they are offering my asking price. So probably my biggest concern would be what happens if the house burns down / washes away and they walk?  

[blacklab 11928]

Do you not have insurance?

[UTPhil2006 3807]

40 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Too late to edit, but probably worth mentioning they are offering my asking price. So probably my biggest concern would be what happens if the house burns down / washes away and they walk?  

If you wanna send it over I can look at the offer 

[UT_OB1 2220]

16 minutes ago, blacklab said:

Do you not have insurance?

Yes I have insurance, but I’m not positive what happens after they are on the deed. I did find in their FAQ letter that the insurance will stay with me and they are responsible for paying. Not sure still what happens if there is a claim. The money would come to me the way I understand it, and I would send it on, but how do they guarantee people would send it to them?  

[Mother mopar 3318]

Yes I have insurance, but I’m not positive what happens after they are on the deed. I did find in their FAQ letter that the insurance will stay with me and they are responsible for paying. Not sure still what happens if there is a claim. The money would come to me the way I understand it, and I would send it on, but how do they guarantee people would send it to them?  

If you have to keep asking yourself questions, you already know the answer.

[Neonmoon 38129]

6 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

@UTPhil2006 and the other Texas real estate guys/gals - have any of you heard of Guerilla Investments?  They made an offer on a house we have listed for sale that is Subject To. I have heard of these but have zero experience with them. From the details in the offer, it sounds like a good deal. Good deals make me suspicious though, on the other hand we ReFi when rates were super low, and any rate these days will be almost twice as high 

Thoughts?

With a “Subject To”, aren’t you still liable for the mortgage? Meaning, you’re hoping the investor makes payments on time. If not, it could negatively affect your credit, but the debt obligation would still be on your credit report. 

Edited April 8 by Neonmoon

[troph 24789]

7 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

Thanks for the info. I think you’re right.  Thinking it will be a condo. We used to live/own a co-op in NYC. I never really understood that we actually owned shares in the co-op, rather than the apartment. Hated selling it, but co-op rules required you to live in it for a year every two years. So we would try to time the sale/purchase for next Spring. Thanks again. 

If your Lakeway property is investment property and you buy the condo - not just help your daughter - and you then treat it as an investment property - which means she rents from you, then you’re in 1031 territory. If you are just helping her then no unless you have leftover homestead tax exemption available - the 2 out of the last 5 years rule under the federal tax code.  
 

TIC might work but you’d want to have a 1031 expert look at it.

don’t know shit about fuck about co-ops.

So your answer is yes you can but probably you won’t - for good reason. 

Edited April 8 by troph

[Gil Bang 25951]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

With a “Subject To”, aren’t you still liable for the mortgage? Meaning, you’re hoping the investor makes payments on time. If not, it could negatively affect your credit, but the debt obligation would still be on your credit report. 

Yep.  The ONLY way to do such a deal is to collect a large enough chunk of up-front cash to cover the payments should the buyer shit the bed.   The buyer's payment needs to go to a 3rd party (escrow-ish) that in turn, pays the existing mortgage. 

[troph 24789]

I’d love for Austin to bottom out. It’s been a shit 2 years with my wife playing tennis 5 days a week and doing a custom job every now and again. We haven’t started a spec house since 2020. It’s been so bad I wouldn’t even consider click on this thread for the longest time.

Edited April 8 by troph

[TreatyOak 16313]

57 minutes ago, troph said:

If your Lakeway property is investment property and you buy the condo - not just help your daughter - and you then treat it as an investment property - which means she rents from you, then you’re in 1031 territory. If you are just helping her then no unless you have leftover homestead tax exemption available - the 2 out of the last 5 years rule under the federal tax code.  
 

TIC might work but you’d want to have a 1031 expert look at it.

don’t know shit about fuck about co-ops.

So your answer is yes you can but probably you won’t - for good reason. 

Thanks so much. This is really helpful and I think you’re right. I will continue to check but I really appreciate your input. She’s 24 and already making some serious dosh and insanely, would be able to buy her own NYC condo outright in 2025. Investment banking is a brutal profession but the pay is just crazy. 

[troph 24789]

17 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Thanks so much. This is really helpful and I think you’re right. I will continue to check but I really appreciate your input. She’s 24 and already making some serious dosh and insanely, would be able to buy her own NYC condo outright in 2025. Investment banking is a brutal profession but the pay is just crazy. 

I’ve talked to my son about going that route and doing it for 8-10 years. I’ve talked to him about a number of angles but there is no doubt it’s one of the most lucrative ways to go. To me the gamble isn’t the hours it’s the lifestyle. Which is not to say anything negative about your daughter at all. 

[TreatyOak 16313]

1 hour ago, troph said:

I’ve talked to my son about going that route and doing it for 8-10 years. I’ve talked to him about a number of angles but there is no doubt it’s one of the most lucrative ways to go. To me the gamble isn’t the hours it’s the lifestyle. Which is not to say anything negative about your daughter at all. 

As someone who thought I worked insane hours in advertising in NY, her job has been fairly astounding to us. She was a computer engineering major at Duke and interned at Morgan Stanley in NY two summers in school. Since graduation, she has been there full-time. The hours are like nothing we’ve ever seen. She will stay at her job (with a promotion in Aug) and has already accepted a job at another private equity firm & start in Aug of 2025. I have no understanding how the industry works as it seems to have its own unique structure, but perhaps all finance is like that. She has worked on some pretty cool deals, as well. I would encourage it, since your son can bank a lot of money and then be very valuable to so many different companies. 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Those 3 rate cuts trending towards no rate cuts this year. 

[Newdoc 3439]

9 hours ago, TreatyOak said:

Thanks so much. This is really helpful and I think you’re right. I will continue to check but I really appreciate your input. She’s 24 and already making some serious dosh and insanely, would be able to buy her own NYC condo outright in 2025. Investment banking is a brutal profession but the pay is just crazy. 

There are a ton of variables buying a condo. HOA, assessments, volatile market values, outside the inside wall problems you cannot control, etc. If you go this route, then you can 1031 exchange and lease back to her for now and then she can buy it outright from you in a couple of years and then you can 1031 into another income producing property anywhere you want unless you want to take the capital gains hit at that time. 

[TreatyOak 16313]

7 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

There are a ton of variables buying a condo. HOA, assessments, volatile market values, outside the inside wall problems you cannot control, etc. If you go this route, then you can 1031 exchange and lease back to her for now and then she can buy it outright from you in a couple of years and then you can 1031 into another income producing property anywhere you want unless you want to take the capital gains hit at that time. 

This is brilliant. Thanks so very much. Very simple and smart. 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Those 3 rate cuts trending towards no rate cuts this year. 

5 month highs currently 

[Gil Bang 25951]

United Wholesale Mortgage CEO Mat Ishbia is offering a simple explanation for explosive allegations that his company has “corrupted” mortgage brokers in order to cheat “hundreds of thousands of borrowers out of billions of dollars” in fees and costs.

Ishbia claims the allegations — made public Tuesday by a company affiliated with a hedge fund that’s taken a short position in UWM, and which also form the basis of a consumer lawsuit against the nation’s largest mortgage lender — have been cooked up by UWM’s fiercest rival, Rocket Mortgage, and its founder, Dan Gilbert.

“That’s Rocket Mortgage and Dan Gilbert doing Rocket Mortgage and Dan Gilbert things,” Ishbia told reporters Thursday. “And that’s just what it’s been funded by.”

Rocket Mortgage and Hunterbrook Media, the newly-launched media company that published the scathing report on UWM’s alleged business practices, say Ishbia’s accusations are baseless.

One of Hunterbrook Media’s founders, Sam Koppelman, called Ishbia’s take “a baseless conspiracy theory” on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.

“Neither Rocket nor Gilbert even agreed to provide us with comment,” Koppelman posted on X. “Ishbia, meanwhile, has yet to point to a single fact we got wrong in our reporting. Mat, up for an interview?”

A hedge fund that’s affiliated with Hunterbrook Media, Hunterbrook Capital, has taken a short position in UWM — a bet that the company’s share price will crash. It’s also long on Rocket Companies, meaning it’s bought shares it hopes will increase in value — perhaps fueling Ishbia’s suspicions.

(UWM had not responded to a request for comment on the basis of Ishbia’s allegations as of publication time Friday).

A spokesperson for Rocket Mortgage told Inman that Gilbert and Rocket have nothing to do with Hunterbrook Media.

“Dan Gilbert and Rocket Mortgage have no investment, other financial interests or relationship to Hunterbrook Media,” Rocket Mortgage spokesperson Aaron Emerson said in a statement to Inman. “The professional investigation speaks for itself and appears to be based on factual, public information uncovered by the journalists who conducted the investigation.”

The allegations detailed in Hunterbrook Media’s report are serious — and are the basis of a lawsuit seeking class-action status in a federal district court to represent UWM borrowers who were allegedly harmed.

In prohibiting mortgage brokers who send borrowers to UWM from sending loan applications to rivals Rocket Mortgage or Fairway Independent Mortgage, the lawsuit alleges that UWM has caused a growing number of mortgage brokers to “artificially steer loans to UWM.”

In the process, UWM has violated the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act (RICO) and the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act (RESPA), the lawsuit alleges.

 

[UTPhil2006 3807]

Years long, very expensive Eskimo brothers fight 

[Neonmoon 38129]

26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Years long, very expensive Eskimo brothers fight 

Is that called "docking"?

 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

The entire basis of this lawsuit is utter nonsense.  UWM says not us if you want to be with Rocket or Fairway.  Rocket is a bunch of shitheads that treat my client like their client and would just as soon slice my throat as help me out in any way.  And yet still- with all this awful steering screwing customers out of Billions or trillions or whatever nonsense they claim I have 87 different lenders I can take a loan to, my typical customer pays zero points, gets a rate 3/8 of a point less than national average, and the wholesale channel- even with bullshit TPO fees that have zero basis in fact or reality that get charged to people in that channel come in $9800 less, on average, than retail.  

Again, I don't even particularly like UWM, but they are the consumers best friend in the industry with absurdly fast close times, they solved the appraisal problem that plagued so many of us during covid, and all sorts of other stuff, all at a price consistently less than retail.  Gilbert can fuck off and I hope whatever shit bag lawyer filing this class action suit gets fake cancer and fake dies and needs a wreath fund.

3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Years long, very expensive Eskimo brothers fight 

But yeah- this is also an amusing aspect of the whole thing.  Helen of Troy wasn't responsible for stirring up this much shit. 

[Mother mopar 3318]

Those 3 rate cuts trending towards no rate cuts this year. 

This shit is not helping me with my effort to move. Here's to 2025 cuts!