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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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Thanks, appreciate it.  Depending on where we end up (smaller house, purchase or rental, Austin, elsewhere) I guess we'll decide whether to buy a nice model and take it or a lesser model and convey it.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

We're making a list of crap we need to fix before downsizing, most likely next year.  Our refrigerator has a leak, which is either a true leak from the water line or periodic condensation.  We have not been able to get anyone to actually fix the problem and the warranty is long expired.  I'm quite sure there is damage to the baseboards behind the refrigerator.

Once we pull it and fix the baseboards I'm not about to put it back in the kitchen, I want it gone.  So, we'll need a new one.  My question:  does a refrigerator typically convey to the buyer when the house sells?  I don't really want to buy someone else a super nice refrigerator.

If it’s nice take it with you. But then in the new place the one may convey as well. But as noted above just notate that appliances are negotiable and such. 

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18 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

That’s how people end up with garage fridges. When I sold my last house, the buyer ended up with a kitchen fridge and a garage fridge and I only took my chest freezer.

Which IMO is never a bad thing.  I will gladly stock any and all garage fridges as a closing gift.  

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11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

@Gil Bang is the market in Soruhwrn California slowing? I saw a video saying it has finally. That is what I’ve been waiting to hear. If so, buckle up on stock holdings. 

yes, sales are slowing, but prices haven't followed.  Inventory is up a bit, pendings are down a bit.  

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Homebuyers' deflationary mindset not going away, 50bps FFR discount isn't moving the needle when -25bps is already priced in. 

Who can write me a 30-year conventional in Colorado, or at least talk to me about bridge options?  I'm starting to explore my exit from Texas.

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6 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Homebuyers' deflationary mindset not going away, 50bps FFR discount isn't moving the needle when -25bps is already priced in. 

Who can write me a 30-year conventional in Colorado, or at least talk to me about bridge options?  I'm starting to explore my exit from Texas.

Be happy to help you on that.

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Down .04 today, down .06 yesterday, down .04 Tuesday so a very good week thus far, currently sitting at 3.72 which is right at a 15 month low (June '23).  Also anyone who has bought in the last 18-24 months we have another incentive going on refinances (FHA and VA getting close to/doable at 4.xx).. can DM/email (pdubord@prodigymbo.com) or text/call if you wanna see some numbers

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On 8/31/2024 at 10:21 AM, jimmyjazz said:

My question:  does a refrigerator typically convey to the buyer when the house sells?  I don't really want to buy someone else a super nice refrigerator.

Just do what we did and buy an average one. As mentioned fridges convey probably half the time? The one in the house we are buying is staying so we got a Samsung on Labor Day sale to replace our built in which is on it's last legs.

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Just Locked someone on a free loan where we pay all their closing costs on a conventional at 5.875.  He wanted that over lowest rate which would have been 5.5. National average is at 6.38% right now. That's the lowest it's been in a couple years- I believe.  My two favorite seasons are Football season and refinance season.  Pretty sure they are both here now. 

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41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

On a standard conventional loan (national average- 6.38%) with $7000 going to cover all closing costs including interest?  Not high at all.  We making 95 bips on that deal.  

I see what you’re saying. Youre eating closing costs  

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Mixed bag on August jobs report. Neither bulls nor bears happy. Headline number slightly below expectations (142K vs. 165K). July revised down to only 79K. However, U3 down from 4.3% to 4.2% and wage growth stronger than expected at 0.4%. 

Coin flip odds between 25 bps or 50 bps cut in in 2 weeks. 

10-year was down immediately after release, but now flat.

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13 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Mixed bag on August jobs report. Neither bulls nor bears happy. Headline number slightly below expectations (142K vs. 165K). July revised down to only 79K. However, U3 down from 4.3% to 4.2% and wage growth stronger than expected at 0.4%. 

Coin flip odds between 25 bps or 50 bps cut in in 2 weeks. 

10-year was down immediately after release, but now flat.

Was hoping to get to around 3.65 on the 10 year 

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That jobs report wasn't a mixed bag is was putrid. The expectation was low and missed by double digit percentage and the last two months were revised down by 89k. That brings total revisions for the year through 8 months to 365,000  which means that over 20% of the jobs originally reported NEVER happened.  There is something fundamentally broken (either through intentions or incompetence) going on with the BLS and it's all coming through the birth/death model in small business.  Which you can see as it's constantly at odds with ADP.

JOLTS on Wednesday was revised down and at lowest level since 2009 (excluding covid b/c it's insane not to).  Quit rate is lowest since 2014. Hire rate is low. To the extent that unemployment went down from 4.3% to 4.2% it is nothing more than people giving up working.

I took a strong position at polymarket on 50 bip rate cut when it was trading at 16% (like 2 weeks ago).  It's now at 35%.  5 of the last 6 initial cuts were 50 bips. I don't see any particular reason why this is different. I'm selling everything over my initial investment so that's all I have at play right now so I'm in the black already and can't lose, but I expect to ride this all the way to 100 or 0. I think it's 50 but who knows. 

I'd also buy futures at 3, 4 & 5 rate cuts for the year which you can get at 28, 25 and 21 respectively right now.  If any of those hit that's a profit.  Gun to my head I'd be on 4, but I think 5 is more likely than 3.  They call every 25 bips a rate cut in the market- so if it goes 50 bips on 9/18 they will call that 2 rate cuts.  
Put another way- they have 3 meetings left- I absolutely believe they will cut at all 3 of them.  My guess would be 2, 1, 1 for 4, but I could see 1,1,1 or 2,1,2 if the bottom really falls out between here and there. 

my bet is 10-12 cuts between here and the end of this economic cycle, but I don't think you can actually bet on that.  

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26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

We’re basically here this morning  hitting 16 month lows. Got a ways to go to get to 17 month lows (3.33 in April ‘23) 

Some interesting numbers from Habib today.

Average distance between the top of the 10 year and the point it's at when the first rate cut happens is 1.40 points.  10 year topped out in this cycle at 5.0.  So, if this is where it's at next week it's basically dead bang on the average.

If the rate cuts continue to happen as they have on average in the past cycles we would expect the 10 year to bottom out (probably in 12-18 months) at about 2.2%.

Typically, mortgage rates have about a 2 point spread on the 10 year (this has grown greater during rates going up but will probably get back to normal spread as they go down).  Thus- if this happens the bottom should see national average (I'm guessing 18-24 months from now after about 250 basis points in cuts by the fed) bottom out about 4.25 for the national average. Work with a good broker and that means you should be in the high 3's at the trough of this mortgage cycle.  Maybe low 4's. 

This strikes me as likely and intuitively right- as in 2019 we were at low 4's for the national average and mid to high 3's for my clients before Covid came and distorted the entire market.  

If the 10 year performs less than average during this rate cutting cycle that would means national rates between 4.5 and 4.75 so a sharply priced buyer would be low 4's.

 

 

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This is from my network and not me directly, but I’m hearing stories of 30-40 trigger lead derived phone calls to a borrower in the first two days after credit pull.  Someone also claimed upwards of 50 and they had previously signed up on the  opt out pre-screen website.

We also appear to be about to lose an approved refi because the servicer made an offer better than ours after we ordered the payoff (of course theirs is capturing a couple of weeks of pricing improvements).  
 

TL:DR-prep your borrowers for a deluge of sales calls and don’t order the payoff until right before closing.  

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53 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

This is from my network and not me directly, but I’m hearing stories of 30-40 trigger lead derived phone calls to a borrower in the first two days after credit pull.  Someone also claimed upwards of 50 and they had previously signed up on the  opt out pre-screen website.

We also appear to be about to lose an approved refi because the servicer made an offer better than ours after we ordered the payoff (of course theirs is capturing a couple of weeks of pricing improvements).  
 

TL:DR-prep your borrowers for a deluge of sales calls and don’t order the payoff until right before closing.  

Yeah that’s the first thing I explain, especially to new borrowers nowadays. It’s ridic. Also surprised the picked up and then beat your offer. I believe Wulaw lobby’s or something against it. Not sure what treadway has been made though 

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This is from my network and not me directly, but I’m hearing stories of 30-40 trigger lead derived phone calls to a borrower in the first two days after credit pull.  Someone also claimed upwards of 50 and they had previously signed up on the  opt out pre-screen website.
We also appear to be about to lose an approved refi because the servicer made an offer better than ours after we ordered the payoff (of course theirs is capturing a couple of weeks of pricing improvements).  
 
TL:DR-prep your borrowers for a deluge of sales calls and don’t order the payoff until right before closing.  

Can confirm (and it was well more than 50).
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44 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:


Can confirm (and it was well more than 50).

Soft pull, opt out, hard pull, order payoff right before closing.  It is so lousy for the borrower.

Yes- I've spent $5,000 of my own money plus 2 weeks over the last 2 years (plus an hour a month additional) lobbying to get this cleaned up. It's gross and disgusting.

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13 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Who are the databrokers selling borrower details upon their credit pull?  If it's coming from the credit bureaus themselves, I'll rage.  Might as well use a Google Voice number for all contact from consult to closing.

Bureaus. It’s really really really deserving of getting them fire bombed. It’s awful and I can’t even comprehend why it’s ok. 
We’ve ceded way too much control of our financial lives to the credit bureaus and they are shit heads. 

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Market down 10 points this morning in mbs.  After everyone got groggy and 67% of the market started pricing in a 50 basis point cut looks like they are getting scared and selling before the announcement today. 
I was telling people to buy futures in 50 basis point cut when it was trading at 17% on poly maker and sell when it was at like 38%, take your profit and leave your initial stake in investment in. It hit 74% the other day. Yesterday was down to 54%. This morning it’s at 48%. Interesting. 

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Market down 10 points this morning in mbs.  After everyone got groggy and 67% of the market started pricing in a 50 basis point cut looks like they are getting scared and selling before the announcement today. 
I was telling people to buy futures in 50 basis point cut when it was trading at 17% on poly maker and sell when it was at like 38%, take your profit and leave your initial stake in investment in. It hit 74% the other day. Yesterday was down to 54%. This morning it’s at 48%. Interesting. 

Could go either way at this point. 

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Anyone else feel like throwing up now with 11 minutes to go before the fed announcement?  This is like me watching Texas v OU but if I had about a $50k bet on the game right now.  I don't know if I'm going to make it....

I'm in a glass cage of emotions. 

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Anyone else feel like throwing up now with 11 minutes to go before the fed announcement?  This is like me watching Texas v OU but if I had about a $50k bet on the game right now.  I don't know if I'm going to make it....

I'm in a glass cage of emotions. 

image.jpeg.6d7ce68083d8b99f288cdeebd2db8024.jpeg

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