All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[UTPhil2006 3804]

50bps it is 

[LCHorn 2612]

Plus forecasting another 100 bps over 2025.

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Wow!  Now we can breathe again.  

we were at - 17 bips the minute before it was released. Will be interesting to see what the swing is between now and the end of the day.  I'm betting 30 points better to end the day (so finish plus 13). 

We shall see. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

Shows what I know. 

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shows what I know. 

Eh- you know a lot.  You are one of the most knowledgeable posters on things economic on this site.  I just eat, drink and sleep this particular subset of economics b/c it's my job.  The media sucks at financial reporting so most of the headline shit is utter nonsense.  

[UTPhil2006 3804]

18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shows what I know. 

I think you were in the right to state what you did especially being risk averse and pragmatic. Given the current state of things those two characteristics aren’t a top priority 

[UT_OB1 2217]

Can we go ahead and get another 50 in a month?  Or tomorrow?

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

7 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

Can we go ahead and get another 50 in a month?  Or tomorrow?

25 in November, 25 in december

Thanks

Gabe

[LCHorn 2612]

I give Habib a lot of shit but I’m listening to his podcast with Tim Braheem and he called the 50.

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

11 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I give Habib a lot of shit but I’m listening to his podcast with Tim Braheem and he called the 50.

How you feel about Habib over the last year would be 180 degrees different if the BLS hadn't reported a fake 850k jobs and the market wouldn't have reacted to the headline number and ignored the revisions.  That really messed us up.

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

And looks like the market closes down 14 for the day. It managed to briefly get into the green for like 5 minutes with a high at 7 bips up.  Lenders re-pricing for the worse. I must say- I didn't have market worsening and breaking through technical support after getting a 50 bip cut from the feds on my bingo card for the day.  Can't imagine how ugly it would have been if we only got 25 bips.  

Oh well, didn't have to happen today- but it will happen I'm sure going forward. Doesn't make any sense not to as that's where all the data, history and now government policy points to. 

[UTPhil2006 3804]

Today wasn’t gonna reflect anything but a negative reaction. We’ve been locking as they come in this week on refinances but I suspect we will get back the .04 we went up today on the 10 year and then hopefully get into the 3.5xx by week end. But long term with the potential 50bps again in Nov/Dec they mentioned in the Presser we are headed in the lower direction going into 2025 

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Today wasn’t gonna reflect anything but a negative reaction. We’ve been locking as they come in this week on refinances but I suspect we will get back the .04 we went up today on the 10 year and then hopefully get into the 3.5xx by week end. But long term with the potential 50bps again in Nov/Dec they mentioned in the Presser we are headed in the lower direction going into 2025 

Yeah- you weren't wrong when you said coin flip.  100 was best case scenario between now and the end of the year and that looks like what we are going to get- that wasn't fully priced in so sort of odd- but yeah- better days ahead I highly suspect.  

[Chewbacca 7766]

Can anyone confirm rates I'm getting are market?  I'm going to refi my construction loan with my local bank since they were the only ones that would do a construction loan for me last year.  They told me these are my options (no points on either):

 

7/1 ARM - 5.175%

30 year fixed - 6.1375%

 

Are those at least close to market?

[UTPhil2006 3804]

5 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Can anyone confirm rates I'm getting are market?  I'm going to refi my construction loan with my local bank since they were the only ones that would do a construction loan for me last year.  They told me these are my options (no points on either):

 

7/1 ARM - 5.175%

30 year fixed - 6.1375%

 

Are those at least close to market?

Primary? And Colorado (I think?)

[Chewbacca 7766]

2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Primary? And Colorado (I think?)

YEs to both. And Jumbo.

[UTPhil2006 3804]

9 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

YEs to both. And Jumbo.

Yeah those are both solid.  Just priced both out and they are at or below market so you're good.

[Chewbacca 7766]

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah those are both solid.  Just priced both out and they are at or below market so you're good.

Nice, thanks.  

[boilerhorn 1372]

 

What are you seeing for 7/1 and 30 for non-primary residence?  Home is in Indiana.

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

1 hour ago, boilerhorn said:

 

What are you seeing for 7/1 and 30 for non-primary residence?  Home is in Indiana.

What’s the loan amount, appraised value and credit score?  

[horn4life 3759]

coming in late, but I think I bitched a month ago that they needed  a quarter, and maybe a half a month ago.  A half was what IMHO was appropriate.  Because despite what I read Powell said about a commitment to not being late this swing.  (read my first sentence)

Of course the market went... wait... are we supposed to be scared about a recession!?!?!?!

Movement is downward.  And FORGIVE ME if my recollection is wrong here, but I thin the forward fed fund Sept 2025 future was at 2.89.  I will also say that historic rates of 6 percent on a mortgage have only been "too high" since covid. If you look at 25 years of rates, there is a lot of money to be made at anything sub 6 percent, And lets be honest, it's gonna be more like 5.35% by next spring? Unless the there is areal fucking war in the middle east.  

But up the spring should be good for all your mortgage guys. Capitulation on price from the fake listings (only for a fucking price that will never happen on the books) if they give me the right price. Are fading. The reality that the ridiculous Austin prices of 2 years ago are gone.  And folks that have to sell have been capitulating. And more capitulation is going to happen the rest of this year. IMHO.  But at the end of Feb next year?  That fun loving multiple offer scenario may again be in play.

(if no middle east wider war)

I hope that my musings are true. Because I am about to put a fair amount of time into a remodel that I hope will benefit from my musings.  It will look fucking beautiful either way, but it will look a lot more beautiful to stretch for that place on the lake for a buyer and 4.95% in April.   

[boilerhorn 1372]

8 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What’s the loan amount, appraised value and credit score?  

I will DM you.

Edited September 19 by boilerhorn

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

5 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

~300, >420, 780+

If non primary means second home I'd say you'd be doing well to get 6.499 if you weren't paying points

If non primary means investment 6.499 would probably cost you about $750.00

Now- if you could get your loan to value below 70% (that right there is like 71%)  then 6.125 might be on the table with no points. 

[boilerhorn 1372]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If non primary means second home I'd say you'd be doing well to get 6.499 if you weren't paying points

If non primary means investment 6.499 would probably cost you about $750.00

Now- if you could get your loan to value below 70% (that right there is like 71%)  then 6.125 might be on the table with no points. 

Thank you.  Is that for the 7/1 or 30?  Or does it matter?

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

Just now, boilerhorn said:

Thank you.  Is that for the 7/1 or 30?  Or does it matter?

30. I didn't see any benefit on the 7/1....

[LCHorn 2612]

47 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Is that for the 7/1 or 30?

ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.  

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.  

Arms on any loans have been pretty dicey for at least 2 years. Now that the yield curves are getting un-inverted again I would imagine that you will see those start to be better again.

 

[UTPhil2006 3804]

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.  

Yeah when I priced it wasn’t any benefit. What @boilerhorn needs to do is get @Chewbacca’s local guy to open a branch in Indiana. I could do the 6.125 jumbo but would need a smidge of origination to make it viable. Or if we go down for a week or so it’s doable. 

[boilerhorn 1372]

Appreciate all of the input.  There are rumblings that there will be another 50 bps drop a little later in the year and possibly another 50bps a quarter later.  Is that what y'all are hearing?  Just trying to time the market, which is often a fool's errand.

Just glad my primary residence is at 2.875%

[LCHorn 2612]

1 minute ago, boilerhorn said:

Just trying to time the market, which is often a fool's errand.

You can’t really time the market unless your choice is to get a loan in 2025 versus 2026.  
 

There’s going to be additional rate cuts, and we can be fairly positive about the overall direction, but that’s not the kind prediction that works in a smaller time frame.  You can always refinance later if the market accommodates it.

[UTPhil2006 3804]

6 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Appreciate all of the input.  There are rumblings that there will be another 50 bps drop a little later in the year and possibly another 50bps a quarter later.  Is that what y'all are hearing?  Just trying to time the market, which is often a fool's errand.

Just glad my primary residence is at 2.875%

Dec is prob the next 50 and then 100 in 2025. You can always refinance after about 6 months if it goes down significantly so while there is a little bit of guessing on the timing there’s some options in the future as well as a recourse 

[boilerhorn 1372]

3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

You can’t really time the market unless your choice is to get a loan in 2025 versus 2026.  
 

There’s going to be additional rate cuts, and we can be fairly positive about the overall direction, but that’s not the kind prediction that works in a smaller time frame.  You can always refinance later if the market accommodates it.

Good points about timeline.  My primary residence was purchased at a rate of around 6.875% for a 30 and I refi'd numerous times until I got it to 15-yr @ 2.875%

[Chewbacca 7766]

5 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah when I priced it wasn’t any benefit. What @boilerhorn needs to do is get @Chewbacca’s local guy to open a branch in Indiana. I could do the 6.125 jumbo but would need a smidge of origination to make it viable. Or if we go down for a week or so it’s doable. 

It's a local CO bank that holds the loans on their balance sheet, so they've got more flexibility than others, for sure.  They are usually 1/8-1/4 more expensive, so it's good to hear they're where they should be.  

[UTPhil2006 3804]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

It's a local CO bank that holds the loans on their balance sheet, so they've got more flexibility than others, for sure.  They are usually 1/8-1/4 more expensive, so it's good to hear they're where they should be.  

Yeah I definitely figured they held their own paper on that one 

[Gil Bang 25907]

So I don't like to brag, but last week, I closed the...

 

 

 

 

 

 

SMALLEST deal of my career!

Fucking trailer for $140,000.

Meh.  

 

[UTPhil2006 3804]

That’s high cotton here in Texas. Who was the lender on the deal. 

[Wulaw Horn 19064]

17 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

So I don't like to brag, but last week, I closed the...

 

 

 

 

 

 

SMALLEST deal of my career!

Fucking trailer for $140,000.

Meh.  

 

Got a guy putting down 3% on a 70k house. I’m skeptical that it will appraise. 

[UTPhil2006 3804]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Got a guy putting down 3% on a 70k house. I’m skeptical that it will appraise. 

I know that ain’t UWM. NewRez?

[Incredulity 11650]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

70k house.

[UTPhil2006 3804]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

First time in Livingston?

[Incredulity 11650]

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

First time in Livingston?

amazing what they can do fusing together a single wide and a bar. not sure that wall is square though....

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/328-W-Sherwood-Dr-Livingston-TX-77351/225007927_zpid/

[CleverNickname 1308]

Any harm in listing a house as FSBO on zillow for more than likely market price, just in case someone comes along with a suitcase of cash?

[UTPhil2006 3804]

33 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Any harm in listing a house as FSBO on zillow for more than likely market price, just in case someone comes along with a suitcase of cash?

Yes and no. No actual damage done but there is a history of you listing at a certain price. If you list on MLS in the future for lower then you could potentially have that. But that’s all in negotiations. So I’d say go for it 

[horn4life 3759]

1 hour ago, CleverNickname said:

Any harm in listing a house as FSBO on zillow for more than likely market price, just in case someone comes along with a suitcase of cash?

I would think that a sweetener for a buyer's agent noted on Zillow might increase your "in case someone comes along with a suitcase of cash" Spring of 2022 memories.  Seems like a very low percentage scenario. My assumption is that most folks with suitcases of cash have an agent.  So a couple percent to a buyers agent, at a list price that you expect to negotiate down from?  It's just math. 

I guess the real question is what do you honestly think the house will sell for? IF you can get ANYTHING above that on your own, it's a win.  If the margin isn't that great, it will be interesting to see what sort of buyers contact you. 

I would be very curious about this!!! Please let us know after the fact!  As I am going to sell a Lake House in Belton in the Spring.  I am likely to let the folks in the neighborhood all get a look at it before we list it.  My thought is to have a "neighbor pre-list price" about 4% less than with an agent.  Hell honestly, if I had a real buyer on the hook moving below the final price with a conventional sale, just to have a deal in hand and done.

 

[Storm the Field 5291]

Looks like refinancing applications have really started to pick up, but purchase applications are still dragging ass. Makes sense, IMO. People who had no choice but to buy at 7.5% or 8% can currently do better. A lot of prospective buyers probably waiting to at least get back closer to 5.5% or so.

[UTPhil2006 3804]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

Looks like refinancing applications have really started to pick up, but purchase applications are still dragging ass. Makes sense, IMO. People who had no choice but to buy at 7.5% or 8% can currently do better. A lot of prospective buyers probably waiting to at least get back closer to 5.5% or so.

Yeah we are currently refinancing everyone who bought in the last couple years dropping most of them at least a point 

[Gil Bang 25907]

8 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Any harm in listing a house as FSBO on zillow for more than likely market price, just in case someone comes along with a suitcase of cash?

other than the fact that it's dumb?

 

Here's the problem...now your house is "for sale", which implies a certain condition and cleanliness level. Do y'all ever leave dishes in the sink?  Not any more you don't.  Make the beds every morning, y'all.  

and, since it's only listed on zillow, you're going to be dealing with buyers that haven't been vetted by anybody.  If I call to arrange a showing, you can bet your ballsack that the buyers I'm bringing are pre-qualified for a loan, ready to buy, and aren't out just jacking people off looking at houses for shits and giggles. 

[CleverNickname 1308]

1 minute ago, Gil Bang said:

other than the fact that it's dumb?

 

Here's the problem...now your house is "for sale", which implies a certain condition and cleanliness level. Do y'all ever leave dishes in the sink?  Not any more you don't.  Make the beds every morning, y'all.  

and, since it's only listed on zillow, you're going to be dealing with buyers that haven't been vetted by anybody.  If I call to arrange a showing, you can bet your ballsack that the buyers I'm bringing are pre-qualified for a loan, ready to buy, and aren't out just jacking people off looking at houses for shits and giggles. 

eh, mom moved to assisted living. She ain't going back to living alone. Packing stuff would take a while, but she had given away a lot the last few years. Mostly now just pots and pans (kids can use em when they leave the house), photos (keep, scan), furniture (divide up), and garage stuff (tools).

[Gil Bang 25907]

why not just list it and sell it?   Vacant houses go to shit fairly quickly.  Small leaks that nobody notices, etc.   Plus, the carrying costs...taxes, utilities, etc.  

[CleverNickname 1308]

2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

why not just list it and sell it?   Vacant houses go to shit fairly quickly.  Small leaks that nobody notices, etc.   Plus, the carrying costs...taxes, utilities, etc.  

I told her we would not rush anything. It's just one block over, so it's not too much trouble. But yeah... probably cost $1200 a mo to keep around, while forgoing the interest the money would be earning in the bank.