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UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year already this morning 

image.gif.99610041bf5bf160c3be2709a15a74fe.gif

I woke up this morning, looked at the market, said son of a fucking bitch and then from my bathroom my 9 year old was like- language daddy. 

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Sept Home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010.  

This economy is doing so well we need higher rates. 

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horn4life

horn4life 3,748

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On 10/22/2024 at 12:43 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Trump 312 or so to 226- 53 GOP Senate- who the fuck knows in the house. That's my prognostication.  Go look at my Georgia prediction for that game to see how well I can see the future :)

  

I can sort of see it... Secretary of Transportiaton WuLaw...  And the tent will play well with the rural voters! 😉

 

 

But on point more,the thing that will move the fed is the lowest rate of first time home buyers.  But the Bond guys think the uncertainty with Israel and Iran is worth pressing.  So until that little snafu has a reasongly predictable outcome... mortgage rates will suck...

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3,750

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The problem right now is that most First Time Homebuyers are increasingly going FHA. It isn't the worst thing in the world, but MI for the life of the loan (until I can refinance them into conventional, hopefully) isn't great but between rates, credit (sometimes) and down payment they're almost a necessity. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3,750

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I guess I didn't realize MI can't be dropped once LTV crosses below a certain threshold on FHA loans? I thought that was always an option.  Am I thinking about something else?

Conventional it drops off at 78. Usually just a phone call and a desk review on those. In 2013 FHA switched to MI for the life of the loan so the only way out is refi to conventional or pay it off. 

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9,740

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On 10/23/2024 at 9:14 AM, Trey3216 said:

Sept Home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010.  

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,298

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6 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

Great economy doesn't math this those numbers either.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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7 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Conventional it drops off at 78. Usually just a phone call and a desk review on those. In 2013 FHA switched to MI for the life of the loan so the only way out is refi to conventional or pay it off. 

Mostly right.  If an FHA buyer puts down 20% then the MI will get dropped after 11 or 12 years- something like that.  
Now- how many FHA buyers put down 20%?  Very very very few- like less than 5% I would bet.  

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6,402

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A 2021 US Census article with a prediction on 2024.

We could just post the same US Census Bureau median income report from 6 weeks ago stating 80k.
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html#:~:text=Highlights * Real median household income was,of $77%2C540 (Figure 1 and Table A-1).&text=* Real median household incomes increased by,non-Hispanic White households between 2022 and 2023.

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3,750

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47 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Mostly right.  If an FHA buyer puts down 20% then the MI will get dropped after 11 or 12 years- something like that.  
Now- how many FHA buyers put down 20%?  Very very very few- like less than 5% I would bet.  

Maybe .5% as that scenario doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Maybe .5% as that scenario doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

Usually shitty credit and also needs to put enough money down to hit DTI.  I've done a handful for sure, but pretty unusual.  

Or- if you have a manual underwrite...

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3,750

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12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Usually shitty credit and also needs to put enough money down to hit DTI.  I've done a handful for sure, but pretty unusual.  

Or- if you have a manual underwrite...

Gotcha. Can't say I've come across one of those. The 10+ years of MI would infuriate me as a buyer. Like 2 years would seem appropriate or something. But then you're splitting hairs on FHA guidelines. Hopefully all the FHA deals we've done get converted to a mid 4 conventional over the next 12-24 months anyway. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Gotcha. Can't say I've come across one of those. The 10+ years of MI would infuriate me as a buyer. Like 2 years would seem appropriate or something. But then you're splitting hairs on FHA guidelines. Hopefully all the FHA deals we've done get converted to a mid 4 conventional over the next 12-24 months anyway. 

With the now credit scores on fha sometimes even paying no mortgage insurance vs paying mortgage insurance on the fha the fha payment is still lower. 
I don’t advise that’s of course, because of the 1.75% yo front funding fee, but some buyers DGAF because that ain’t cash from them today and it’s a lower payment tomorrow, and they don’t care about their equity position. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3,750

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15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

With the now credit scores on fha sometimes even paying no mortgage insurance vs paying mortgage insurance on the fha the fha payment is still lower. 
I don’t advise that’s of course, because of the 1.75% yo front funding fee, but some buyers DGAF because that ain’t cash from them today and it’s a lower payment tomorrow, and they don’t care about their equity position. 

Yeah can definitely say a lot of younger buyers are "just get me in the house and we'll figure it out later" thought process currently. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,232

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On 10/24/2024 at 10:23 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

Why are you mixing sources? 

Census Estimate for 2020: $67,521

Census Estimate for 2023: $80,610

Got the Fidelity numbers for 2020?

Edited by Storm the Field
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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5,232

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On 10/24/2024 at 10:23 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

Median Household Income as estimated by BLS ≠ Median Salary estimated by Fidelity

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

You have to ask?  You're talking to someone who actively roots for the worst possible outcome.

Rhetorical question.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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Down another 16 points today.  Blew past support supposed to prop it up- we are now approaching worst conditions in what 6 months?  Something like that?  This is absurd and I hate everything about what this market is choosing to be. Fuck it- I guess we will just have 7% interest rates forever (narrators voice- we won't have 7% rates forever I don't think) but damn, I feel like Sisyphus pushing his damn rock up the fucking mountain for the last couple years now.  

I know all the rest of yall love this market- sorry to be the only one miffed about it. 

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,298

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down another 16 points today.  Blew past support supposed to prop it up- we are now approaching worst conditions in what 6 months?  Something like that?  This is absurd and I hate everything about what this market is choosing to be. Fuck it- I guess we will just have 7% interest rates forever (narrators voice- we won't have 7% rates forever I don't think) but damn, I feel like Sisyphus pushing his damn rock up the fucking mountain for the last couple years now.  

I know all the rest of yall love this market- sorry to be the only one miffed about it. 

It's great regarding equity assets, not great for the underlying health of the economy.   Chicken gon be laying a lotta eggs at some point.   

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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23 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's great regarding equity assets, not great for the underlying health of the economy.   Chicken gon be laying a lotta eggs at some point.   

I was just kidding.  Should have at'd @UTPhil2006 and @LCHorn, @smoothlonghorn, @Neonmoon and whoever else is in the industry.  Was just messing around. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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56 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Another damn .05 up already this morning. Something has to break. This isn't sustainable. 

Jolts has us down 500k job openings. Clear weakening in labor market. We still are off 15 points today in the mbs market. It makes absolutely zero sense. We are up 1 actual percent in interest rates since the fed cut 50 basis points. It is literally crazy. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3,750

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53 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And we close at 7.03 for the national average. Right back to basically last December. Just about the worst of this year. Maybe there was another bad month a little worse. I’ve tried to kill those brain cells since then. 
 

Just in time for UWM .75 to fall off 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18,917

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Just in time for UWM .75 to fall off 

I am well aware. Probably cost me 30 deals this month. Such a beat down. 

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Calling my shot-MBS improve by 100 bps on 11/6 (I actual think 125 but trying to temper myself).  
 

I sure as shit hope so. Just need like 300 more after that to get back right. 

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