All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Trey3216 15356]

Sept Home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010.  

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year already this morning 

I woke up this morning, looked at the market, said son of a fucking bitch and then from my bathroom my 9 year old was like- language daddy. 

4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Sept Home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010.  

This economy is doing so well we need higher rates. 

[UTPhil2006 3812]

At this rate @Dbeasy's bond investor buddy may be correct by next Friday 

[Incredulity 11683]

45 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Sept Home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010.  

interdasting.  Was told housing market was invulnerable on this one....

[horn4life 3783]

 

On 10/22/2024 at 12:43 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Trump 312 or so to 226- 53 GOP Senate- who the fuck knows in the house. That's my prognostication.  Go look at my Georgia prediction for that game to see how well I can see the future

  

I can sort of see it... Secretary of Transportiaton WuLaw...  And the tent will play well with the rural voters! 😉

 

 

But on point more,the thing that will move the fed is the lowest rate of first time home buyers.  But the Bond guys think the uncertainty with Israel and Iran is worth pressing.  So until that little snafu has a reasongly predictable outcome... mortgage rates will suck...

Edited October 24 by horn4life

[UTPhil2006 3812]

The problem right now is that most First Time Homebuyers are increasingly going FHA. It isn't the worst thing in the world, but MI for the life of the loan (until I can refinance them into conventional, hopefully) isn't great but between rates, credit (sometimes) and down payment they're almost a necessity. 

[jimmyjazz 46130]

I guess I didn't realize MI can't be dropped once LTV crosses below a certain threshold on FHA loans? I thought that was always an option.  Am I thinking about something else?

[UTPhil2006 3812]

5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I guess I didn't realize MI can't be dropped once LTV crosses below a certain threshold on FHA loans? I thought that was always an option.  Am I thinking about something else?

Conventional it drops off at 78. Usually just a phone call and a desk review on those. In 2013 FHA switched to MI for the life of the loan so the only way out is refi to conventional or pay it off. 

[ChickenSandwich 9852]

On 10/23/2024 at 9:14 AM, Trey3216 said:

Sept Home sales drop to the lowest level since 2010.  

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

[Trey3216 15356]

6 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

Great economy doesn't math this those numbers either.  

[ChickenSandwich 9852]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Great economy doesn't math this those numbers either.  

It is even worse when adjusted for inflation. 
 

 

$18,431 loss

Edited October 24 by ChickenSandwich

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

7 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Conventional it drops off at 78. Usually just a phone call and a desk review on those. In 2013 FHA switched to MI for the life of the loan so the only way out is refi to conventional or pay it off. 

Mostly right.  If an FHA buyer puts down 20% then the MI will get dropped after 11 or 12 years- something like that.  
Now- how many FHA buyers put down 20%?  Very very very few- like less than 5% I would bet.  

[StassneyHorn 6637]

A 2021 US Census article with a prediction on 2024.

We could just post the same US Census Bureau median income report from 6 weeks ago stating 80k.
https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html#:~:text=Highlights * Real median household income was,of $77%2C540 (Figure 1 and Table A-1).&text=* Real median household incomes increased by,non-Hispanic White households between 2022 and 2023.

[UTPhil2006 3812]

47 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Mostly right.  If an FHA buyer puts down 20% then the MI will get dropped after 11 or 12 years- something like that.  
Now- how many FHA buyers put down 20%?  Very very very few- like less than 5% I would bet.  

Maybe .5% as that scenario doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Maybe .5% as that scenario doesn't make a whole lot of sense. 

Usually shitty credit and also needs to put enough money down to hit DTI.  I've done a handful for sure, but pretty unusual.  

Or- if you have a manual underwrite...

[UTPhil2006 3812]

12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Usually shitty credit and also needs to put enough money down to hit DTI.  I've done a handful for sure, but pretty unusual.  

Or- if you have a manual underwrite...

Gotcha. Can't say I've come across one of those. The 10+ years of MI would infuriate me as a buyer. Like 2 years would seem appropriate or something. But then you're splitting hairs on FHA guidelines. Hopefully all the FHA deals we've done get converted to a mid 4 conventional over the next 12-24 months anyway. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Gotcha. Can't say I've come across one of those. The 10+ years of MI would infuriate me as a buyer. Like 2 years would seem appropriate or something. But then you're splitting hairs on FHA guidelines. Hopefully all the FHA deals we've done get converted to a mid 4 conventional over the next 12-24 months anyway. 

With the now credit scores on fha sometimes even paying no mortgage insurance vs paying mortgage insurance on the fha the fha payment is still lower. 
I don’t advise that’s of course, because of the 1.75% yo front funding fee, but some buyers DGAF because that ain’t cash from them today and it’s a lower payment tomorrow, and they don’t care about their equity position. 

[UTPhil2006 3812]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

With the now credit scores on fha sometimes even paying no mortgage insurance vs paying mortgage insurance on the fha the fha payment is still lower. 
I don’t advise that’s of course, because of the 1.75% yo front funding fee, but some buyers DGAF because that ain’t cash from them today and it’s a lower payment tomorrow, and they don’t care about their equity position. 

Yeah can definitely say a lot of younger buyers are "just get me in the house and we'll figure it out later" thought process currently. 

[Storm the Field 5302]

On 10/24/2024 at 10:23 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

Why are you mixing sources? 

Census Estimate for 2020: $67,521

Census Estimate for 2023: $80,610

Got the Fidelity numbers for 2020?

Edited October 25 by Storm the Field

[Storm the Field 5302]

[jimmyjazz 46130]

5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Why are you mixing sources? 

You have to ask?  You're talking to someone who actively roots for the worst possible outcome.

[Storm the Field 5302]

On 10/24/2024 at 10:23 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

Median Household Income as estimated by BLS ≠ Median Salary estimated by Fidelity

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

You have to ask?  You're talking to someone who actively roots for the worst possible outcome.

Rhetorical question.

[Storm the Field 5302]

5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Actually since the figure of $80,610 is for 2023, if you change the top date to December 2023, you actually get $67,792.38 worth of January 2020 money, a $250 bump.

Thanks Chicken!

[UTPhil2006 3812]

15 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Actually since the figure of $80,610 is for 2023, if you change the top date to December 2023, you actually get $67,792.38 worth of January 2020 money, a $250 bump.

Thanks Chicken!

The FHA loan limit is 500k so all yall still solid 

[Gil Bang 26020]

On 10/25/2024 at 7:11 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah can definitely say a lot of younger buyers are "just get me in the house and we'll figure it out later" thought process currently. 

I would argue that it's always been that way.

[KYHorn 17159]

15 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I would argue that it's always been that way.

Probably true but I imagine an inflationary cycle plus the experience of watching home prices skyrocket on Zillow during COVID and beyond ramps this sentiment up significantly

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

Down another 16 points today.  Blew past support supposed to prop it up- we are now approaching worst conditions in what 6 months?  Something like that?  This is absurd and I hate everything about what this market is choosing to be. Fuck it- I guess we will just have 7% interest rates forever (narrators voice- we won't have 7% rates forever I don't think) but damn, I feel like Sisyphus pushing his damn rock up the fucking mountain for the last couple years now.  

I know all the rest of yall love this market- sorry to be the only one miffed about it. 

[Trey3216 15356]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down another 16 points today.  Blew past support supposed to prop it up- we are now approaching worst conditions in what 6 months?  Something like that?  This is absurd and I hate everything about what this market is choosing to be. Fuck it- I guess we will just have 7% interest rates forever (narrators voice- we won't have 7% rates forever I don't think) but damn, I feel like Sisyphus pushing his damn rock up the fucking mountain for the last couple years now.  

I know all the rest of yall love this market- sorry to be the only one miffed about it. 

It's great regarding equity assets, not great for the underlying health of the economy.   Chicken gon be laying a lotta eggs at some point.   

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

23 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It's great regarding equity assets, not great for the underlying health of the economy.   Chicken gon be laying a lotta eggs at some point.   

I was just kidding.  Should have at'd @UTPhil2006 and @LCHorn, @smoothlonghorn, @Neonmoon and whoever else is in the industry.  Was just messing around. 

Edited October 28 by Wulaw Horn

[UTPhil2006 3812]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I was just kidding.  Should have at'd @UTPhil2006 and @LCHorn, @smoothlonghorn, @Neonmoon and whoever else is in the industry.  Was just messing around. 

[UTPhil2006 3812]

Another damn .05 up already this morning. Something has to break. This isn't sustainable. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

53 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Another damn .05 up already this morning. Something has to break. This isn't sustainable. 

It’s crazy. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

56 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Another damn .05 up already this morning. Something has to break. This isn't sustainable. 

Jolts has us down 500k job openings. Clear weakening in labor market. We still are off 15 points today in the mbs market. It makes absolutely zero sense. We are up 1 actual percent in interest rates since the fed cut 50 basis points. It is literally crazy. 

Edited October 29 by Wulaw Horn

[UTPhil2006 3812]

5 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Another damn .05 up already this morning. Something has to break. This isn't sustainable. 

Cmon gimme down .01 by close of market 

[horn4life 3783]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Cmon gimme down .01 by close of market 

May all your dreams come true! 😉. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

And we close at 7.03 for the national average. Right back to basically last December. Just about the worst of this year. Maybe there was another bad month a little worse. I’ve tried to kill those brain cells since then. 
 

[LCHorn 2631]

Calling my shot-MBS improve by 100 bps on 11/6 (I actual think 125 but trying to temper myself).  
 

[UTPhil2006 3812]

53 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And we close at 7.03 for the national average. Right back to basically last December. Just about the worst of this year. Maybe there was another bad month a little worse. I’ve tried to kill those brain cells since then. 
 

Just in time for UWM .75 to fall off 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Just in time for UWM .75 to fall off 

I am well aware. Probably cost me 30 deals this month. Such a beat down. 

2 hours ago, LCHorn said:

Calling my shot-MBS improve by 100 bps on 11/6 (I actual think 125 but trying to temper myself).  
 

I sure as shit hope so. Just need like 300 more after that to get back right. 

[BearSchlong 8114]

Fwiw I loved your “pumpkin shoes” mailer.

[UTPhil2006 3812]

On 10/29/2024 at 6:58 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Just in time for UWM .75 to fall off 

This got renewed. 
 

However another day another .06 up 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

16 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

This got renewed. 
 

However another day another .06 up 

I have wallowed in sadness for 4 weeks now when it became obvious this nonsense was happening. I think I'm reaching acceptance now and will go back to laughing like the dog in the fire.  It's either that or cry or drink bleach or slit my wrists or something...

[gmr548 16616]

On 10/24/2024 at 8:23 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

Median household income was $67,521 in 2020

https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2021/demo/p60-273.html

In 2024, the median income in the United States is estimated to be around $59,000 to $60,000, with the exact figure depending on the source

Median weekly earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, the median weekly earnings for full-time workers was $1,165. This translates to a monthly income of $4,935, or $59,228 per year.
 

Fidelitys numbers so far

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/smart-money/average-salary-in-us

 

Home buying doesn’t math right now. 

 

On 10/24/2024 at 9:29 AM, ChickenSandwich said:

It is even worse when adjusted for inflation. 
 

 

$18,431 loss

Alright, I've mostly been luring this thread lately but this is just garbage, as has been pointed out already. Are y'all doing this intentionally in bad faith or do you not understand income data?

Y'all are comparing the average salary for an individual worker in 2024 to median household income in 2020. These are not the same data point and y'all know that. Or maybe you are both very stupid. Who knows?

The Fidelity average salary you refer to is sourcing BLS data. Median weekly earnings in 2020 were $984: https://www.bls.gov/cps/aa2020/cpsaat37.htm

Per the Census Bureau, your first data source median HH income was $80k for 2023. It will probably go up more for 2024. Plug that into in inflation calculator. https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2024/demo/p60-282.html

Home buying doesn't math right now because it didn't math for a lot of the population for the last 5-10 years, and then there was a major increase in borrowing costs in a short period of time. And of course, housing is structurally undersupplied in most markets.

But sure let's just fabricate some data to say the problem is on the demand side and real incomes have taken a nosedive, even though that's nonsense. Great job dipshits.

[LCHorn 2631]

Holy shit on jobs report.

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

5 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Holy shit on jobs report.

I am so angry. 
there were basically 3 things that caused interest rates to go up an entire point in the last 6 weeks. 
jolts coming in 200k over expectations- that was revised downward by 500k openings 

BLS coming in 100k over expectations:  today revised downward what- 120k jobs. 
inflation going up 1/10. It was basically rounding. What was it like- .03 or something on the miss?  
did I miss anything causing the rise?  Yeah- a coupe fed governors jaw boning the market worse a bit. Why did they do that?  Because the numbers they are working with are total and utter garbage. 
but, 10k jobs this month. That’s a thing that actually happened. 

Edited November 1 by Wulaw Horn

[Storm the Field 5302]

10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Holy shit on jobs report.

LOL at ADP +233K earlier this week. 

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

8 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

LOL at ADP +233K earlier this week. 

What’s so weird is it is almost always adp coming in way low compared to BLS. 
ADP counts anyone on payroll. 
BLS counts people actually getting paid. I wonder if there was some sample stuff during the strike or something affecting BLS in a wonky way this month?  

[Storm the Field 5302]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What’s so weird is it is almost always adp coming in way low compared to BLS. 
ADP counts anyone on payroll. 
BLS counts people actually getting paid. I wonder if there was some sample stuff during the strike or something affecting BLS in a wonky way this month?  

I believe the BLS report estimated a -45K hit from Hurricanes for last month.

[Wulaw Horn 19152]

16 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I believe the BLS report estimated a -45K hit from Hurricanes for last month.

That’s still pretty brutally bad. 

[Trey3216 15356]

ISM Manufacturing PMI just came in 1.1 lower than expected as well...