All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[UTPhil2006 3773]

18 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

ISM Manufacturing PMI just came in 1.1 lower than expected as well...

Yet here we are up .02 on the day as of now

[CBT 1282]

How common is this Transaction Fee that Coldwell Banker keeps charging me? Is that the norm for all brokerage houses now? 6% plus $150?

[UTPhil2006 3773]

13 minutes ago, CBT said:

How common is this Transaction Fee that Coldwell Banker keeps charging me? Is that the norm for all brokerage houses now? 6% plus $150?

On the RE side?  Maybe bc its Coldwell Banker but you'd think larger corps would be less likely to charge a nonsense fee.

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

42 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yet here we are up .02 on the day as of now

at 8:00 am when habib texted me the MBS market we were up 31.  Looked at Jobs report.  Happy days are here again.

Fucked around, got ready, ate breakfast, commuted to work, logged into my computer and we are down 9 in the MBS market.  ON a day with 10k jobs for the month and 113k in revisions downward. And bad manufacturing.  

Make it make sense Phil, make it make sense. 

[UTPhil2006 3773]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

at 8:00 am when habib texted me the MBS market we were up 31.  Looked at Jobs report.  Happy days are here again.

Fucked around, got ready, ate breakfast, commuted to work, logged into my computer and we are down 9 in the MBS market.  ON a day with 10k jobs for the month and 113k in revisions downward. And bad manufacturing.  

Make it make sense Phil, make it make sense. 

[CBT 1282]

17 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

On the RE side?  Maybe bc its Coldwell Banker but you'd think larger corps would be less likely to charge a nonsense fee.

Correct.  

[Trey3216 15308]

Almost nothing stopping us from seeing the 52wk high yield in the next few days.   Good Lord 

[UTPhil2006 3773]

33 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Almost nothing stopping us from seeing the 52wk high yield in the next few days.   Good Lord 

I show 4.99 as the 52W. But we're basically at 4 month highs with the .08 up today. 

[Captainant 26927]

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/homebuyer-average-age-rises-to-56-amid-rising-homeownership-costs.html

Quote

 

The average age of homebuyers is now 56, up from 49 in 2023, according to the National Association of Realtors' annual state-of-the-market report released Monday. That's a historic high, up from an average age in the low-to-mid 40s in the early 2010s.

The median age of first-time buyers also rose from 35 to 38, while the share of first-timers dropped from 32% to 24% of all buyers for the year ending July 2024. That marks the lowest percentage since NAR started tracking the metric in 1981.

"In my two decades in the mortgage business, I've never seen a more difficult time for millennials to purchase a home," says Bob Driscoll, senior vice president and director of residential lending at Massachusetts-based bank Rockland Trust.

That's largely due to rising homeownership costs, he says. The median U.S. home price is now $435,000, per NAR — up 39% since 2020 — while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has more than doubled to over 6% in that time.

High homeownership costs are especially challenging for younger buyers, as many struggle to save for a down payment while juggling student loan debt, high rent prices and lower wages early in their careers. The biggest obstacle to homeownership for younger buyers is saving for a down payment, says Driscoll.

An 18% down payment — the median percentage buyers put down, according to NAR — on a $435,000 home comes to $78,300. That's a significant expense, nearly matching the annual U.S. median household income of $80,610, per U.S. Census Bureau data.

Younger buyers who can afford down payments are still often outbid by older, wealthier buyers using equity from homes they already own. Without this advantage, younger buyers must "absorb the additional cost out of pocket," says Driscoll.

 

Yikes, that's alot of people getting priced out

[UTPhil2006 3773]

5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/homebuyer-average-age-rises-to-56-amid-rising-homeownership-costs.html

Yikes, that's alot of people getting priced out

Yep the value increase the first part of this decade followed by the massive interest rate jump then coupled with the lack of substantial savings makes that number make sense. The buyers we have that are below 30 are doing FHA minimal down payment, down payment gifts from family, or DPA programs. Rarely do you see the well qualified 20% down buyer at the younger ages 

[horn4life 3749]

I can't decide how the Bond market is going to react to the election.  My gut is that rates (have not acted as usually expected) are still high because of Trumps' viability and the economic impact of his traditional levels of spending combined, with a propensity for inflationary tariffs.  Or do they think that either candidate is going to simply spend so massively that is does not matter?  My gut is the former.  IF so is a Harris wins does that makes the bond bet less attractive with a continuation of "status quo" economic policies?  Or is it the latter?   Instability in the middle east is also a big factor, but I just don't see Iran risking a big attack due to the potential response. With I also think is part of the interest rate stew.  

I guess we will know in a week or so.  It will be interesting to see the Bond markets reaction in the coming days.  If things unfold as I think they will, I think that the bond market will give you guys the drops you are begging for.  If not... I am gonna need a cash buyer on my Dad's remodeled Lake House.

 

 

[ChickenSandwich 9768]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/homebuyer-average-age-rises

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/04/homebuyer-average-age-rises-to-56-amid-rising-homeownership-costs.html

Yikes, that's alot of people getting priced out

-to-56-amid-rising-homeownership-costs.html

Yikes, that's alot of people getting priced out

I’d argue interest rates and home insurance premiums (+property taxes in some states) are as big of hindrance, if not a bigger hindrance than a downpayment. You have options for a one time downpayment. Not much you can do about the other two. 

[UTPhil2006 3773]

1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

I’d argue interest rates and home insurance premiums (+property taxes in some states) are as big of hindrance, if not a bigger hindrance than a downpayment. You have options for a one time downpayment. Not much you can do about the other two. 

Insurance is definitely pushing those on the DTI fringe over. Definitely have told a couple (or 10) they have to come down about 50k+ on their purchase price budget 

[horn4life 3749]

3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Insurance is definitely pushing those on the DTI fringe over. Definitely have told a couple (or 10) they have to come down about 50k+ on their purchase price budget 

Insurance in Florida is about to become one of the key price point pressures.  Perhaps Florida will become an adequately funded insurer of last resort, writing policies.  But more often than not these things are underfunded.  I wanted to check my memory and this was what popped up.https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/11/business/citizens-insurance-hurricane-milton/index.html#:~:text=The state-backed nonprofit home,largest provider in the state.

Highlight was they have 1.3 million policy holders and $15 billion, back on October 11th.  Not sure what your replenishment rate is, but avg Fla house is $400K, that's $520 billion in insured property, with 1.3 million policy holders.  If you can't get insurance, who is gonna lend you money on an uninsurable home? At any rate.

One a completelu different subject- what do you guys think about loans of longer duration than 30 years? I can see the fact that most folks don't stay even 10 years in a house, google says 8 years on average.  But I can see arguments to the contrary.  Just wondering if you all had any thoughts?  

[Slacks 6722]

2 minutes ago, horn4life said:

One a completelu different subject- what do you guys think about loans of longer duration than 30 years? I can see the fact that most folks don't stay even 10 years in a house, google says 8 years on average.  But I can see arguments to the contrary.  Just wondering if you all had any thoughts?  

30 / 60 / 90... the number is arbitrary, really. buyers don't set rates and terms, they select rates and terms.

give me 99 years at 1% and I'm buying everything.

give me 9 years at 19% and I'll sit where i am.

i've been in my house 15 years... paid off, then cashed out at a lovely 3.x%. house pays me 7% and is worth 2x what I refi'd. I don't even know what to do next.

 

(I know what Phil wants me to do next.)