All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[LCHorn 2585]

15 minutes ago, horn4life said:

If you can convince more folks that the number right in front of them (I said capitulation) might be as good an interest rate as they are going to see?  Does that get a deal closed? Or just piss them off, because they don't like that assertion?

Nobody knows if the number today is as good as it’s going to get.  As @Wulaw Horn mentioned, there were five days in September in which some folks got locked in the fives.  It could very likely be that we are there again in a month because there hasn’t really been any economic events besides the election (which is over) that would make the economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago.  
 

Regardless, as @UTPhil2006 mentioned, every LO is selling some variation of “marry the house, date the rate”, but that’s not moving someone who has a house already at 3% and doesn’t  HAVE to make a change.  

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Without being CR: never smoke your supply, to use a metaphor. 

There are a couple of different ways the election can shake out: one is the one you laid out.  Tax cuts get rewritten by a GOP majority, with little to no Dem input, that stimulates more business spending, while deep budget cuts reduce government stimulus, balancing things out. Deficits either grow slowly and modestly, or maybe even come down a bit. Powell is able to continue to reduce interest rates.  Bond markets, and related mortgages, approve, and rates start to fall fairly smoothly. You guys get new cars and pools, world is good. 

The alternative is the GOP goes insane, cuts taxes to the bone, and spending doesn't really come down either. Trump fires Powell after he holds rates steady when inflation refires, and the Supreme Court doesn't stop him, and whoever replaces him pulls an Arthur Burns, slashes rates to make Trump happy.  The Bond market loses it's shit, mortgage rates go through the roof, and you guys are on the canned bean diet for the forseeable future. 

I guess it could be somewhere in the middle as well, but discounting the story the bond market is telling is a dangerous game. 

I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles.  

You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need.
If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well.

This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself.

The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side.  The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up).  

But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs.  Must have misplaced them somewhere.  Anyone see them? Nope. 

Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life. 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

4 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Nobody knows if the number today is as good as it’s going to get.  As @Wulaw Horn mentioned, there were five days in September in which some folks got locked in the fives.  It could very likely be that we are there again in a month because there hasn’t really been any economic events besides the election (which is over) that would make the economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago.  
 

Regardless, as @UTPhil2006 mentioned, every LO is selling some variation of “marry the house, date the rate”, but that’s not moving someone who has a house already at 3% and doesn’t  HAVE to make a change.  

That's not true.  There weas stuff that made "economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago"  
JOLTS came in at 8.2 or 8.4M and kicked off the entire fucking doom cycle.  Then BLS reported eleventy billion new jobs (mostly by 15-19 year olds after school had started- figure that out) and inflation came in literally at .5 and got rounded up instead of .4 and getting rounded down, and, combined with uncertainty that plays out every time we have an election a doom cycle started.  
Of course- then after that bullshittery got kicked off we saw- "just kidding- we overstated JOLTS BY 600 FUCKING THOUSAND JOBS" and a 12k jobs number but it didn't matter b/c the market had already doomed and gone the wrong fucking direction chasing ghosts. 
Also- huge stock market run up over election excitement afterwards, people covering shorts, bulls on the Trump trades etc sucked liquidity out of bond market (as happens when one runs super hot) and we haven't seen it flow back the other way.  

As far as the person asking about what rates will be tomorrow I couldn't tell you- I will bet that as of the end of the year nobody that started with me with a rate in the 7's from 2023 will end 2024 with a rate in the 7's, none of them will have paid a single fucking cent in discount points, and most of them won't have paid a dime in closing costs b/c we will have covered those in the bet that better days are ahead again and you won't be in your mortgage all that much longer.  And I make that bet for the customer b/c I plan on (and have) talked to all of them in 6-12 months. 

[Bateshorn 9898]

35 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles.  

You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need.
If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well.

This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself.

The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side.  The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up).  

But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs.  Must have misplaced them somewhere.  Anyone see them? Nope. 

Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life. 

I mean, I'm not sure I'd model anything on a pre-covid, pre inflation economy.  I'm just laying out a couple of scenerios, not questioning your personal values. The first term was marked by a Trump who didn't actually influence economic policy very actively, other than tariffs (The 2017 tax cuts were drafted with virtually no input from his White House). This time around, he's going to get whatever he wants, for better or worse. If you believe that's Stonks to the Moon, buy those calls, my man. 

I'm giving you a perspective on my experience in being a successful policy dude and lobbyist. 

Edited Tuesday at 08:37 PM by Bateshorn

[jimmyjazz 45546]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Didn't Trump appoint Powell?

Have you seen how many of his appointees he's fired?

[Dbeasy 14963]

No one knows where rates are headed. No one. Yes, near term inflation looks good right now because the only number left high is shelter, which is a very lagging indicator. 

However, we are moving into a world that could be very different from the last 25 years.  In addition we still have an inverted yield curve. At some point locking in 10-30 year rates needs to deliver financial value. If short term rates don’t drop as much as the bond market forecasts, 10-30 year rates may need to rise. 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

No one knows where rates are headed. No one. Yes, near term inflation looks good right now because the only number left high is shelter, which is a very lagging indicator. 

However, we are moving into a world that could be very different from the last 25 years.  In addition we still have an inverted yield curve. At some point locking in 10-30 year rates needs to deliver financial value. If short term rates don’t drop as much as the bond market forecasts, 10-30 year rates may need to rise. 

Sure. The world could fundamentally change from how it is and has been from a long time. That’s absolutely on the table. That’s what it would take- a fundamental change. 

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

No one knows where rates are headed. No one. Yes, near term inflation looks good right now because the only number left high is shelter, which is a very lagging indicator. 

However, we are moving into a world that could be very different from the last 25 years.  In addition we still have an inverted yield curve. At some point locking in 10-30 year rates needs to deliver financial value. If short term rates don’t drop as much as the bond market forecasts, 10-30 year rates may need to rise. 

Average of the last 8 times we’ve done this would say 2.5-2.75 or so. Mortgage rates typically are 2 points higher on the spread. That would be mid 4’s at the end of this cycle. Could this be radically different?  Sure. I’m betting on lots of history against that. 

[UTPhil2006 3790]

You guys keep acting like I got some magic wand. I certainly ain't using it on yall 

[Gatorubet 30083]

Quote

Mortgage interest rates for a 30-year, fixed loan peaked at 18.63% in 1981. In fact, at no point in any year from 1979 to 1985 did average rates dip below 10.00%.

just a little something to brighten your day and make you all feel better.

[swraith 336]

this popped up on my YouTube algorithm. Lots of talk about bond market expectations along with other markets. 
 

No CR intended. 

[troph 24562]

4 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You guys keep acting like I got some magic wand. I certainly ain't using it on yall 

I don’t share mine either. 
 

https://hitachiwand.com/?gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAACbZdbrg2PbEDQNpds2sUa2qqQ5dX&gclid=Cj0KCQiAlsy5BhDeARIsABRc6ZtVBz7Bsw_jJjl5_e3WZyzKSaLkLmO0rK2f4hAiQv7CZSua0axqt4waAqChEALw_wcB

[horn4life 3755]

17 hours ago, horn4life said:

Hey what do you guys int he industry predict the 30 year and Mortgage Market Index to come in at tomorrow?

Any predictions for this report that's going to come in, in about 30 minutes?  I am assuming no good news, maybe the tiniest tick up on the MMI.  Rates obviously higher on the 30 year, right?

[Wulaw Horn 18971]

52 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Any predictions for this report that's going to come in, in about 30 minutes?  I am assuming no good news, maybe the tiniest tick up on the MMI.  Rates obviously higher on the 30 year, right?

Hit expectations at increase of 0.2. Was expected. Replacement was very low (same for next 2 months). Should dip in January/february. MBS market up. Rates getting better today after a very lousy day yesterday.