All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[LCHorn 2629]

15 minutes ago, horn4life said:

If you can convince more folks that the number right in front of them (I said capitulation) might be as good an interest rate as they are going to see?  Does that get a deal closed? Or just piss them off, because they don't like that assertion?

Nobody knows if the number today is as good as it’s going to get.  As @Wulaw Horn mentioned, there were five days in September in which some folks got locked in the fives.  It could very likely be that we are there again in a month because there hasn’t really been any economic events besides the election (which is over) that would make the economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago.  
 

Regardless, as @UTPhil2006 mentioned, every LO is selling some variation of “marry the house, date the rate”, but that’s not moving someone who has a house already at 3% and doesn’t  HAVE to make a change.  

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

Without being CR: never smoke your supply, to use a metaphor. 

There are a couple of different ways the election can shake out: one is the one you laid out.  Tax cuts get rewritten by a GOP majority, with little to no Dem input, that stimulates more business spending, while deep budget cuts reduce government stimulus, balancing things out. Deficits either grow slowly and modestly, or maybe even come down a bit. Powell is able to continue to reduce interest rates.  Bond markets, and related mortgages, approve, and rates start to fall fairly smoothly. You guys get new cars and pools, world is good. 

The alternative is the GOP goes insane, cuts taxes to the bone, and spending doesn't really come down either. Trump fires Powell after he holds rates steady when inflation refires, and the Supreme Court doesn't stop him, and whoever replaces him pulls an Arthur Burns, slashes rates to make Trump happy.  The Bond market loses it's shit, mortgage rates go through the roof, and you guys are on the canned bean diet for the forseeable future. 

I guess it could be somewhere in the middle as well, but discounting the story the bond market is telling is a dangerous game. 

I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles.  

You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need.
If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well.

This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself.

The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side.  The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up).  

But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs.  Must have misplaced them somewhere.  Anyone see them? Nope. 

Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

4 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Nobody knows if the number today is as good as it’s going to get.  As @Wulaw Horn mentioned, there were five days in September in which some folks got locked in the fives.  It could very likely be that we are there again in a month because there hasn’t really been any economic events besides the election (which is over) that would make the economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago.  
 

Regardless, as @UTPhil2006 mentioned, every LO is selling some variation of “marry the house, date the rate”, but that’s not moving someone who has a house already at 3% and doesn’t  HAVE to make a change.  

That's not true.  There weas stuff that made "economic conditions materially different than they were 60 days ago"  
JOLTS came in at 8.2 or 8.4M and kicked off the entire fucking doom cycle.  Then BLS reported eleventy billion new jobs (mostly by 15-19 year olds after school had started- figure that out) and inflation came in literally at .5 and got rounded up instead of .4 and getting rounded down, and, combined with uncertainty that plays out every time we have an election a doom cycle started.  
Of course- then after that bullshittery got kicked off we saw- "just kidding- we overstated JOLTS BY 600 FUCKING THOUSAND JOBS" and a 12k jobs number but it didn't matter b/c the market had already doomed and gone the wrong fucking direction chasing ghosts. 
Also- huge stock market run up over election excitement afterwards, people covering shorts, bulls on the Trump trades etc sucked liquidity out of bond market (as happens when one runs super hot) and we haven't seen it flow back the other way.  

As far as the person asking about what rates will be tomorrow I couldn't tell you- I will bet that as of the end of the year nobody that started with me with a rate in the 7's from 2023 will end 2024 with a rate in the 7's, none of them will have paid a single fucking cent in discount points, and most of them won't have paid a dime in closing costs b/c we will have covered those in the bet that better days are ahead again and you won't be in your mortgage all that much longer.  And I make that bet for the customer b/c I plan on (and have) talked to all of them in 6-12 months. 

[Bateshorn 9929]

35 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm not getting high on my own supply. I'm saying that this is not like we haven't had a real world fucking example, less than 4 years ago at this point, and what it looked like isn't even remotely close to what you are talking about in your alternative scenario. And, my response was a pushback to worst case dooming presented as a fait accomplis, from someone in an industry that doesn't know shit about fuck apparently telling us to get over something or other (or how @UTPhil2006 basically pushed back- and @LCHornlater). I've been in rooms with the wizards of smart predicting politics that just doesn't make fucking sense. I win money when I make political bets now (after getting my ass kicked on the bed bet in 2016 and diving deep enough to be able to sort through the prognostication bets). I'm cashing tickets left and right and have been for 4 cycles.  

You also don't need to have deep budget cuts to fix all this shit- private sector efficiency and just getting rid of the covid era excess can do lots of the same thing you need.
If you think that Trump, Musk and all the other people with real world success are going to conspire to create a climate that doesn't work for business you can certainly make that bet. What I'm telling you is I will take call comers and cash that check as well.

This bond market you are talking about is the same merry collection of dipshits that gets headfaked every time a bullshit job number comes out to a worse extent than my 9 year old daughter fake throwing the tennis ball to my golden retriever who then cackles over and over and over to herself.

The numbers will get cleaned up on the jobs side.  The rampant runaway expansion of the government will get curbed just a bit. Inflation in the real world will match the government number once shelter reality catches up with what's actually happening, and we will get back to a median rate around 4.5- which- as my point was is where it's essentially been for the last 25 years absent bullshit monetary policies related to COVID (which gave us artificially low rates on the way down and then caused the, also artificial, pop on the way back up).  

But sure- I was mocked and ridiculed basically every month for calling bullshit on everything related to the BLS until they said- whoops- can't find like 1,000,000 jobs.  Must have misplaced them somewhere.  Anyone see them? Nope. 

Again- make the bet- I have with my entire life. 

I mean, I'm not sure I'd model anything on a pre-covid, pre inflation economy.  I'm just laying out a couple of scenerios, not questioning your personal values. The first term was marked by a Trump who didn't actually influence economic policy very actively, other than tariffs (The 2017 tax cuts were drafted with virtually no input from his White House). This time around, he's going to get whatever he wants, for better or worse. If you believe that's Stonks to the Moon, buy those calls, my man. 

I'm giving you a perspective on my experience in being a successful policy dude and lobbyist. 

Edited November 12 by Bateshorn

[jimmyjazz 46083]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Didn't Trump appoint Powell?

Have you seen how many of his appointees he's fired?

[Dbeasy 15081]

No one knows where rates are headed. No one. Yes, near term inflation looks good right now because the only number left high is shelter, which is a very lagging indicator. 

However, we are moving into a world that could be very different from the last 25 years.  In addition we still have an inverted yield curve. At some point locking in 10-30 year rates needs to deliver financial value. If short term rates don’t drop as much as the bond market forecasts, 10-30 year rates may need to rise. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

No one knows where rates are headed. No one. Yes, near term inflation looks good right now because the only number left high is shelter, which is a very lagging indicator. 

However, we are moving into a world that could be very different from the last 25 years.  In addition we still have an inverted yield curve. At some point locking in 10-30 year rates needs to deliver financial value. If short term rates don’t drop as much as the bond market forecasts, 10-30 year rates may need to rise. 

Sure. The world could fundamentally change from how it is and has been from a long time. That’s absolutely on the table. That’s what it would take- a fundamental change. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

No one knows where rates are headed. No one. Yes, near term inflation looks good right now because the only number left high is shelter, which is a very lagging indicator. 

However, we are moving into a world that could be very different from the last 25 years.  In addition we still have an inverted yield curve. At some point locking in 10-30 year rates needs to deliver financial value. If short term rates don’t drop as much as the bond market forecasts, 10-30 year rates may need to rise. 

Average of the last 8 times we’ve done this would say 2.5-2.75 or so. Mortgage rates typically are 2 points higher on the spread. That would be mid 4’s at the end of this cycle. Could this be radically different?  Sure. I’m betting on lots of history against that. 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

You guys keep acting like I got some magic wand. I certainly ain't using it on yall 

[Gatorubet 30286]

Quote

Mortgage interest rates for a 30-year, fixed loan peaked at 18.63% in 1981. In fact, at no point in any year from 1979 to 1985 did average rates dip below 10.00%.

just a little something to brighten your day and make you all feel better.

[swraith 347]

this popped up on my YouTube algorithm. Lots of talk about bond market expectations along with other markets. 
 

No CR intended. 

[troph 24905]

4 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

You guys keep acting like I got some magic wand. I certainly ain't using it on yall 

I don’t share mine either. 
 

https://hitachiwand.com/?gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAACbZdbrg2PbEDQNpds2sUa2qqQ5dX&gclid=Cj0KCQiAlsy5BhDeARIsABRc6ZtVBz7Bsw_jJjl5_e3WZyzKSaLkLmO0rK2f4hAiQv7CZSua0axqt4waAqChEALw_wcB

[horn4life 3781]

17 hours ago, horn4life said:

Hey what do you guys int he industry predict the 30 year and Mortgage Market Index to come in at tomorrow?

Any predictions for this report that's going to come in, in about 30 minutes?  I am assuming no good news, maybe the tiniest tick up on the MMI.  Rates obviously higher on the 30 year, right?

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

52 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Any predictions for this report that's going to come in, in about 30 minutes?  I am assuming no good news, maybe the tiniest tick up on the MMI.  Rates obviously higher on the 30 year, right?

Hit expectations at increase of 0.2. Was expected. Replacement was very low (same for next 2 months). Should dip in January/february. MBS market up. Rates getting better today after a very lousy day yesterday. 

[Dbeasy 15081]

On 11/12/2024 at 5:38 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

Average of the last 8 times we’ve done this would say 2.5-2.75 or so. Mortgage rates typically are 2 points higher on the spread. That would be mid 4’s at the end of this cycle. Could this be radically different?  Sure. I’m betting on lots of history against that. 

Your history timeframe is pretty limited. We have not had a debt to gdp ratio this bad since world war 2. They ran inflation high for ten years to inflate away the debt. So the environment today is very different than the last 20 years. Now will this result in higher, lower, or the same mortgage rates for the next few years? No clue. I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that it would be wise to not automatically assume rates will come down significantly. Stagflation is also not an impossibility in the future. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

11 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

Your history timeframe is pretty limited. We have not had a debt to gdp ratio this bad since world war 2. They ran inflation high for ten years to inflate away the debt. So the environment today is very different than the last 20 years. Now will this result in higher, lower, or the same mortgage rates for the next few years? No clue. I’m not saying you’re wrong, just that it would be wise to not automatically assume rates will come down significantly. Stagflation is also not an impossibility in the future. 

Last 8 cycles goes well beyond 20 years man, in all kinds of environments. 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

Yeah 4.50 10 year 

 

[swraith 347]

This talk of pushing the GSEs out of conservatorship showed up multiple times in my news feeds this morning.

What's Ahead for the GSEs Under the New Administration? - Multi-Housing News

[LCHorn 2629]

1 hour ago, swraith said:

This talk of pushing the GSEs out of conservatorship showed up multiple times in my news feeds this morning.

What's Ahead for the GSEs Under the New Administration? - Multi-Housing News

A solution in search of a problem, imo.  Also, Mark Calabria eats more dicks than anyone not named Bob Stoops.  He is about as anti-consumer as I have ever seen as a FHFA Director.  

 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

3 hours ago, LCHorn said:

A solution in search of a problem, imo.  Also, Mark Calabria eats more dicks than anyone not named Bob Stoops.  He is about as anti-consumer as I have ever seen as a FHFA Director.  

 

Disagree. Might eat as many as Stoops.

[Gil Bang 25996]

mortgage dudes:  I've been out of it for a bit and I have a listing appointment coming up.

In case I'm asked, what is the going rate for a 30 year conforming?  

[UTPhil2006 3809]

12 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

mortgage dudes:  I've been out of it for a bit and I have a listing appointment coming up.

In case I'm asked, what is the going rate for a 30 year conforming?  

Assuming the 740+, 20% down about 6.8-6.9 

[Gil Bang 25996]

gracias

[gmr548 16600]

On 11/19/2024 at 8:28 AM, LCHorn said:

A solution in search of a problem, imo.  Also, Mark Calabria eats more dicks than anyone not named Bob Stoops.  He is about as anti-consumer as I have ever seen as a FHFA Director.  

 

Agreed. What's even the case for it at this point?

Also, really don't like the idea of selling to sovereign wealth funds, specifically.

[UT_OB1 2224]

5 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Assuming the 740+, 20% down about 6.8-6.9 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

7.125 bought down a point (by me) for a year with a cost paid refinance at the end is what most of my well qualified buyers are doing. 

[Anastasis 23481]

44 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

7.125 bought down a point (by me) for a year with a cost paid refinance at the end is what most of my well qualified buyers are doing. 

What a world. Thank god for the good fortune of lucky timing. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

What a world. Thank god for the good fortune of lucky timing. 

It’s not great man. It will get better. It was a full point lower 60 days ago. 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

9 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It’s not great man. It will get better. It was a full point lower 60 days ago. 

I think he's wanting them back at the 2021 rates he's at. 
 

That being said, Dec prob will be another rate cut but it will be presumably January before we see some real traction.  I expect mostly feet dragging and minimal gains the next 5 weeks 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I think he's wanting them back at the 2021 rates he's at. 
 

That being said, Dec prob will be another rate cut but it will be presumably January before we see some real traction.  I expect mostly feet dragging and minimal gains the next 5 weeks 

Sure. 2021 wasn’t real or market based though. The target of what the best we could sort of hope for in a non artificial way is probably late fall of 2019 before Covid disrupted everything. My good borrowers were doing 3.75% or so then. 

[swraith 347]

Is there any forecasting, of what real estate activity would look like for all of 2025, if rates stayed around 7?

[Incredulity 11682]

Just now, swraith said:

Is there any forecasting, of what real estate activity would look like for all of 2025, if rates stayed around 7?

[UT_OB1 2224]

1 minute ago, swraith said:

Is there any forecasting, of what real estate activity would look like for all of 2025, if rates stayed around 7?

Forecast:

 

edit - damnit @Incredulity!!

Edited Thursday at 04:24 PM by UT_OB1

[UTPhil2006 3809]

6 minutes ago, swraith said:

Is there any forecasting, of what real estate activity would look like for all of 2025, if rates stayed around 7?

Good thing is that the whole arena is starved for good news/rates that when/if it does it should pop off 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

QCEW report came out (the one that made news in July showing labor department had overstated jobs by 800k+  Well, in the last report it shows that the previous 12 month jobs were overstated by 1.26M.  So, some of that ecompassess the 800k we already knew about, but the problem was even bigger and getting greater. 
Total job creation in the last 12 months was actually 1.24M (reported as 2.5). 2.5 isn't great but it's fine- 100k job creation a month is complete and utter trash. But no, the next time you read the headline "jobs smash market expectations" the bond market will froth away as if those numbers actually mean anything.  They don't.  How this isn't a major scandal and how the market remains so credulous of this shit I cannot fathom.  

Edited Thursday at 06:32 PM by Wulaw Horn

[LCHorn 2629]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

How this isn't a major scandal and how the market remains so credulous of this shit I cannot fathom. 

Just by coincidence I was talking to a pretty savvy agent about this yesterday morning and he made the point that the owners of Capital don’t care if it’s wrong, just whether it’s predictable.  The market isn’t ignoring it, they are relying on it.  

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Just by coincidence I was talking to a pretty savvy agent about this yesterday morning and he made the point that the owners of Capital don’t care if it’s wrong, just whether it’s predictable.  The market isn’t ignoring it, they are relying on it.  

That's all well and good until it isn't and a day of reckoning comes. I guess those pricks don't care as they are in and out on the trade. Never mind that rates are probably artificially at least a point too high in the mortgage market- Fed Policy has been overly restrictive for 18 months at this point in time (maybe only 12 months) b/c these garbage people are consistently lying about the numbers and there is no punishment mechanism for them.  

The Soviets used to be able to "rely" on the government reports to tell them what the numbers were until it collapsed in upon itself. Like- honesty and transparency is really important. We have none of that right now. Either that or rank incompetence. But at this point it seems hard to believe rank incompetence is the thing- but even if so it doesn't make any functional difference. 

10 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Just by coincidence I was talking to a pretty savvy agent about this yesterday morning and he made the point that the owners of Capital don’t care if it’s wrong, just whether it’s predictable.  The market isn’t ignoring it, they are relying on it.  

I think that's the right answer to my question by the way- even if I don't like it. 

[Incredulity 11682]

13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They don't.  How this isn't a major scandal and how the market remains so credulous of this shit I cannot fathom.  

Way to busy arguing over who is actually "trash", post mortem analyzing the election and freaking out over cabinet nominations to worry about it.

[Incredulity 11682]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The Soviets used to be able to "rely" on the government reports to tell them what the numbers were until it collapsed in upon itself. Like- honesty and transparency is really important. We have none of that right now. Either that or rank incompetence. But at this point it seems hard to believe rank incompetence is the thing- but even if so it doesn't make any functional difference. 

This.

 

[jimmyjazz 46083]

You people are depressing as hell.  I might have picked the wrong upcoming spring to sell my house.

[UTPhil2006 3809]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

You people are depressing as hell.  I might have picked the wrong upcoming spring to sell my house.

You're in a solid area. You'll be fine. 

[Dbeasy 15081]

Here is yet another article explaining why the environment we are in may have different characteristics than the last 20 years. Again, doesn’t mean rates won’t drop, just that an inversion of the yield curve must happen at some point. And that can be done in two ways, with very different results for mortgage rates. I personally think it will be fine, but there’s no way I would bet a lot of money on it.  Banks are sitting on billions of losses because they bet on long term bonds.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/americas-7-trillion-cash-stash-isnt-going-anywhere-mcgeever-2024-11-21/

 

[UTPhil2006 3809]

47 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Here is yet another article explaining why the environment we are in may have different characteristics than the last 20 years. Again, doesn’t mean rates won’t drop, just that an inversion of the yield curve must happen at some point. And that can be done in two ways, with very different results for mortgage rates. I personally think it will be fine, but there’s no way I would bet a lot of money on it.  Banks are sitting on billions of losses because they bet on long term bonds.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/americas-7-trillion-cash-stash-isnt-going-anywhere-mcgeever-2024-11-21/

 

How much longer do you think it's sustainable to have higher rates. Housing market is stale because no one is moving because rates, buying has slowed, no one can access equity without paying a premium, and construction numbers are down. And yes while 7% isn't historically bad, back then home value was proportionally much better vs wages. 

[Dbeasy 15081]

5 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

How much longer do you think it's sustainable to have higher rates. Housing market is stale because no one is moving because rates, buying has slowed, no one can access equity without paying a premium, and construction numbers are down. And yes while 7% isn't historically bad, back then home value was proportionally much better vs wages. 

The only way rates stay high or go higher is if inflation re-ignites, or if the election of Trump causes international treasury bond buyers to stop buying, because he is broadly hated and distrusted by many international trade partners.  

On inflation, imo the biggest threat is union bargaining for higher wages. There is also the immigration and tariff policies of Trump, but I think those will have lesser effects. The Republican controlled government could do some things to blunt union power. That would be key. I’ve watched the recent pay concessions to unions and they are scary high.  

Of course, the government spending cuts could also plunge the economy into a recession and rates will drop, but then the question will be whether there is much real estate demand. It depends on the depth of the recession. 

A lot of moving parts. 

[LCHorn 2629]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

On inflation, imo the biggest threat is union bargaining for higher wages.

You think the rate of inflation is going to be impacted by union members making up about a 10th of the workforce?  And that this is potentially more impactful than tariffs?  What ever do you base this on?

[Dbeasy 15081]

32 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

You think the rate of inflation is going to be impacted by union members making up about a 10th of the workforce?  And that this is potentially more impactful than tariffs?  What ever do you base this on?

No of course not.  But that 10% also impacts the rest of the wage world to some extent.  When someone is evaluating union vs non-union jobs, there is no question there is a linkage, so increases in union wages ripple through the economy to non-union jobs as well. As to the impact of tariffs, 2/3 of the economy is services, 1/3 is goods. The tariffs will be mostly on goods (of course made with overseas lower wages).  US wages are the real critical inflation factor. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

10 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

No of course not.  But that 10% also impacts the rest of the wage world to some extent.  When someone is evaluating union vs non-union jobs, there is no question there is a linkage, so increases in union wages ripple through the economy to non-union jobs as well. As to the impact of tariffs, 2/3 of the economy is services, 1/3 is goods. The tariffs will be mostly on goods (of course made with overseas lower wages).  US wages are the real critical inflation factor. 

We had 4 years of policy. The economy grew basically without inflation. This dooming is absurd. If government waste is truly cut it won’t be recessionary, it will be a net benefit. The government inefficiency and spending is a brake on the economy. We are about to win win win. 

[jimmyjazz 46083]

5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We had 4 years of policy. The economy grew basically without inflation. This dooming is absurd. If government waste is truly cut it won’t be recessionary, it will be a net benefit. The government inefficiency and spending is a brake on the economy. We are about to win win win. 

Well, except for that little detail that a shit ton of actual service is about to evaporate.  There is a cost to that, too.

[Dbeasy 15081]

24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We had 4 years of policy. The economy grew basically without inflation. This dooming is absurd. If government waste is truly cut it won’t be recessionary, it will be a net benefit. The government inefficiency and spending is a brake on the economy. We are about to win win win. 

It’s not dooming in any way whatsoever. I’ve said multiple times that I personally believe we will likely have some level of rate reduction in the future, but that there is a chance of another scenario. Every reasonable economist or financial prognosticator on the planet has the similar viewpoint that we do not have a guaranteed near future of rate reductions, that there is still some uncertainty and risk. 

Conversely, your adamant insistence that there is a 100% guarantee of near future lower rates is not only polyannaish , it’s foolish. No one can guarantee that, and if they could then rates would have already immediately dropped. Your viewpoint is truly ridiculous. 

[Wulaw Horn 19147]

25 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

It’s not dooming in any way whatsoever. I’ve said multiple times that I personally believe we will likely have some level of rate reduction in the future, but that there is a chance of another scenario. Every reasonable economist or financial prognosticator on the planet has the similar viewpoint that we do not have a guaranteed near future of rate reductions, that there is still some uncertainty and risk. 

Conversely, your adamant insistence that there is a 100% guarantee of near future lower rates is not only polyannaish , it’s foolish. No one can guarantee that, and if they could then rates would have already immediately dropped. Your viewpoint is truly ridiculous. 

I quoted you because that was the article and many more speaking about the MANY people dooming in the media. Wasn’t meant to be directed at you in particular. We disagree a bit but your perspective is in no way unreasonable. Wasn’t meant as a shot at you. 
I don’t believe it’s 100%- I’ve said before that you could be right but it would require a fundamental change and would be against what’s historically happened. Paradigms shitty- I just typically bet against. 
 

Edited Friday at 04:22 PM by Wulaw Horn