Jump to content

All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

Recommended Posts

40 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

But your earlier quotes sent it the other way 

I’ve posted multiple times in the past few months that the assumptions of rates just dropping down into the 5% range is not a slam dunk because of the threat of inflation. That is still true. I also said I personally felt rates would drop, but that it’s not guaranteed. It’s all about inflation.

The reason is massive government spending deficits. Now we have two new data points suggesting a recession: CMBS and credit card soaring default rates. A recession would very likely drop mortgage rates, but it might be a short temporary timeframe or not go all the way down into the fives. Why?  

The damn scary future facing us now is potential stagflation. The recession hits, deficits get even worse, the government cuts interest rates, Trump policies are inflationary, and that causes inflation to get worse.

In this situation mortgage rates could do anything. If we have a nice normal shallow recession, with minimal rates cuts, sane Trump policies, or the government somehow manages a soft landing, and inflation rates stay low, then mortgage rates could settle into the fives. 

My WAG for 2025 lowest 30 year mortgage rates are:

<5%   10% chance

5-6% 65% chance

6%+ 25% chance

Just my opinion .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I’ve posted multiple times in the past few months that the assumptions of rates just dropping down into the 5% range is not a slam dunk because of the threat of inflation. That is still true. I also said I personally felt rates would drop, but that it’s not guaranteed. It’s all about inflation.

The reason is massive government spending deficits. Now we have two new data points suggesting a recession: CMBS and credit card soaring default rates. A recession would very likely drop mortgage rates, but it might be a short temporary timeframe or not go all the way down into the fives. Why?  

The damn scary future facing us now is potential stagflation. The recession hits, deficits get even worse, the government cuts interest rates, Trump policies are inflationary, and that causes inflation to get worse.

In this situation mortgage rates could do anything. If we have a nice normal shallow recession, with minimal rates cuts, sane Trump policies, or the government somehow manages a soft landing, and inflation rates stay low, then mortgage rates could settle into the fives. 

My WAG for 2025 lowest 30 year mortgage rates are:

<5%   10% chance

5-6% 65% chance

6%+ 25% chance

Just my opinion .

For me and @Wulaw Horn I hope you're wrong. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

“It also said that credit card delinquency rates had improved slightly from the previous quarter, with 8.8 percent of balances transitioning to delinquency compared with 9.1 percent the previous quarter.

But it found the number of balances going into serious delinquency has increased from 2023—7.1 percent went into serious delinquency in the third quarter, up from 5.78 percent in the same period last year.”

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Right now I view rates in a Catch 22 scenario.  For rates to really move downward some bad economic shit nearly has to happen.  

17 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

The damn scary future facing us now is potential stagflation. The recession hits, deficits get even worse, the government cuts interest rates, Trump policies are inflationary, and that causes inflation to get worse.

In this situation mortgage rates could do anything. If we have a nice normal shallow recession, with minimal rates cuts, sane Trump policies, or the government somehow manages a soft landing, and inflation rates stay low, then mortgage rates could settle into the fives. 

My WAG for 2025 lowest 30 year mortgage rates are:

<5%   10% chance

5-6% 65% chance

6%+ 25% chance

Just my opinion .

The soft landing has already occurred, and inflation is the Mortgage rate boogeyman.  When I look at the dreaded "stagflation scenario," I fail to see how the affect of the Trump policies that have been proposed that do not have an upward effect on inflation, stalling any governmental rate cuts.  And certainly not getting the 10 year headed in the right direction.  Now it the policies that have been proposed are muted, or not of the magnitude floated then my suppositions my be flawed. 

I view deficits getting worse as an absolute certainty, along with inflationary Trump policies in the worst case staglation scenario.  My biggest concern is a stock market collapse leading the way to panic, and a shift of the American consumer to austerity.  Then all the bad things like CC defaults, upside down Commercial RE market, no interest in controlling the deficit push us to a real bad place.  Hope like holy fucking hell this is not the case.  Because that means that there will be a worldwide recession, and we will all be fucked.

 

ON THE UPSIDE - Jim Cramer was talking this morning about how at some point the sellers who need to sell will have to capitulate and lower their price to induce a sale.  Which is the flip side of an interest rate decrease, from a monthly affordability perspective.  That has been the historical pattern over time.  And if you need to sell a home, price or incentivizing a lower rate buy down are about the only ways to move a house that is not selling.  it's the COMBO of sky high prices that have become sticky (too sticky IMHO) and the higher rates that are strangling the market.  A little give on either end, would go a long way in helping the industry as a whole.  

I do think that price capitulation won't happen until late Spring. Simply as when you have uncertainty in the immediate future and you are optimistic then you tend to want to wait and see what shakes out.  It's natural human instinct.  Expectations of the ability of sellers to get that higher price from the recent past, and buyers whose expectation of that lower interest rate from the recent past are bumping heads.  Eventually one side or the other will capitulate.  But the idea that prices are gonna come down due to increased supply, and interest rates are gonna come down to offset the higher prices, seem very unlikely to happen together.  The change will lead with buyer and sellers both slightly capitulating, and the we will begin to see the MMI move upwards off it's horrific lows. 

I am hoping my dark thoughts will be eclipsed on the deficit and inflationary front.  If that is the case then you can toss everything I wrote above in the trash!

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Right now I view rates in a Catch 22 scenario.  For rates to really move downward some bad economic shit nearly has to happen.  

The soft landing has already occurred, and inflation is the Mortgage rate boogeyman.  When I look at the dreaded "stagflation scenario," I fail to see how the affect of the Trump policies that have been proposed that do not have an upward effect on inflation, stalling any governmental rate cuts.  And certainly not getting the 10 year headed in the right direction.  Now it the policies that have been proposed are muted, or not of the magnitude floated then my suppositions my be flawed. 

I view deficits getting worse as an absolute certainty, along with inflationary Trump policies in the worst case staglation scenario.  My biggest concern is a stock market collapse leading the way to panic, and a shift of the American consumer to austerity.  Then all the bad things like CC defaults, upside down Commercial RE market, no interest in controlling the deficit push us to a real bad place.  Hope like holy fucking hell this is not the case.  Because that means that there will be a worldwide recession, and we will all be fucked.

 

ON THE UPSIDE - Jim Cramer was talking this morning about how at some point the sellers who need to sell will have to capitulate and lower their price to induce a sale.  Which is the flip side of an interest rate decrease, from a monthly affordability perspective.  That has been the historical pattern over time.  And if you need to sell a home, price or incentivizing a lower rate buy down are about the only ways to move a house that is not selling.  it's the COMBO of sky high prices that have become sticky (too sticky IMHO) and the higher rates that are strangling the market.  A little give on either end, would go a long way in helping the industry as a whole.  

I do think that price capitulation won't happen until late Spring. Simply as when you have uncertainty in the immediate future and you are optimistic then you tend to want to wait and see what shakes out.  It's natural human instinct.  Expectations of the ability of sellers to get that higher price from the recent past, and buyers whose expectation of that lower interest rate from the recent past are bumping heads.  Eventually one side or the other will capitulate.  But the idea that prices are gonna come down due to increased supply, and interest rates are gonna come down to offset the higher prices, seem very unlikely to happen together.  The change will lead with buyer and sellers both slightly capitulating, and the we will begin to see the MMI move upwards off it's horrific lows. 

I am hoping my dark thoughts will be eclipsed on the deficit and inflationary front.  If that is the case then you can toss everything I wrote above in the trash!

 

I’m right there with you. But I do believe that somehow a scenario will emerge that gets the whole system back on a sustainable track and away from the really bad scenarios. I just can’t envision it right now. Maybe really sluggish economies combined with some significant government spending cuts, but not so bad that we are plunged into deep recessions. In that scenario Phil will be happy. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, horn4life said:

ON THE UPSIDE - Jim Cramer was talking this morning about how at some point the sellers who need to sell will have to capitulate and lower their price to induce a sale.  Which is the flip side of an interest rate decrease, from a monthly affordability perspective.  That has been the historical pattern over time.  And if you need to sell a home, price or incentivizing a lower rate buy down are about the only ways to move a house that is not selling.  it's the COMBO of sky high prices that have become sticky (too sticky IMHO) and the higher rates that are strangling the market.  A little give on either end, would go a long way in helping the industry as a whole.  

I do think that price capitulation won't happen until late Spring. Simply as when you have uncertainty in the immediate future and you are optimistic then you tend to want to wait and see what shakes out.  It's natural human instinct.  Expectations of the ability of sellers to get that higher price from the recent past, and buyers whose expectation of that lower interest rate from the recent past are bumping heads.  Eventually one side or the other will capitulate. 

Anyone else seeing 60-90 DoM before the listing is removed, then later relisted at a similar or higher price?  Sellers have a 5-month window to act (when cyclical buying activity peaks through summer break) and if they don't get the price they *need*, it's often easier to park the property or rent it out if it's being floated on a 2.89% 30-year mortgage.
 

Better price indicators have been noted from homebuilders recently, where, in some markets, it's more cost effective to build than to buy an established SFH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Anyone else seeing 60-90 DoM before the listing is removed, then later relisted at a similar or higher price?  Sellers have a 5-month window to act (when cyclical buying activity peaks through summer break) and if they don't get the price they *need*, it's often easier to park the property or rent it out if it's being floated on a 2.89% 30-year mortgage.
 

Better price indicators have been noted from homebuilders recently, where, in some markets, it's more cost effective to build than to buy an established SFH.

When you have a 2.89% mortgage and do not have to get the equity out of the home, you can do WTF you want.  What I would be very, very curious about is if those houses that come on and off actually sell for that higher price?  Or are these the sort of listings that I sort of view as "non-listings" as the price they list as has no chance of closing.  Now different story if they are getting that higher number!  But are they?

You are actually sort of describing the scenario of my daughter and her husband.  Did really well on a transfer via shell on both their house and a rate buy down that they are 2.75% I think, and had enough cash for the down that they didn't need a double close.  So they can do whatever they want.  But if they HAD to sell?  Then if the house does not sell and they need the equity?  Only choice is reduce price.  If no need for equity simply rent the thing forever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is only a month, but it looks like, for now, The Austin real estate market may have bottomed and is starting to recover. Look at the November cross-over.  Other stats like days of inventory, etc. are still okay as well.

Note that this is with 6-7% interest rates. If/when rates come down, that should help even more.  A recession would obviously be a wild card that could torpedo real estate markets around the country.

I've been telling potential homebuyers that buying now may be a good idea. The only downside is a recession, but that would actually be good news because rates would drop and they could refinance.

 

image.thumb.png.e8e2bfb72d594665308c4ebdd6f7c170.png

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This is only a month, but it looks like, for now, The Austin real estate market may have bottomed and is starting to recover. Look at the November cross-over.

Do you have the same chart going back further in time?  What is the data source?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I expect chaos. Trump is now looking at declaring an economic emergency to enable his tariff scheme uninhibited by the normal guide rails.  Mortgage Market Index fell again to a truly dismal 178.4 against a 6.99% interest rate national average.

I am fascinated by predictions of spending reductions, from the same group that blew the biggest hole in the budget any of us have ever seen(before covid).  The plan currently is to add $500 billion in deficit spending ANNUALLY to extend the tax cuts that blew the hole in the budget to begin with.  So you need to find $500 billion annually from either revenue streams or cost cutting just to get to even?  That $500 billion in additional annual borrowing cost may actually be higher, if interest rates do not recede.  

Where folks see spending cuts coming from is beyond me at this point... The one place where I think we could make big changes would be in the military budget.  As legacy spending technologies that are rapidly becoming obsolete does present an opportunity.  But beyond that?  

Hard for me to see downward pressure on rates with what is likely coming.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by horn4life
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Where folks see spending cuts coming from is beyond me at this point... The one place where I think we could make big changes would be in the military budget.

Trump has proposed eliminating the Department of Education, which had a budget of $268B in 2024.  Will he do it?  I'm inclined to believe he won't.  Even so, it wouldn't be enough.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

This is only a month, but it looks like, for now, The Austin real estate market may have bottomed and is starting to recover. Look at the November cross-over.  Other stats like days of inventory, etc. are still okay as well.

Note that this is with 6-7% interest rates. If/when rates come down, that should help even more.  A recession would obviously be a wild card that could torpedo real estate markets around the country.

I've been telling potential homebuyers that buying now may be a good idea. The only downside is a recession, but that would actually be good news because rates would drop and they could refinance.

 

image.thumb.png.e8e2bfb72d594665308c4ebdd6f7c170.png

This was pretty much the exact scenario we did with @Etexhorn13 was got him in the house, got his 6 payments, and we were able to drop him a point.  Now he's got the home at a great deal with solid equity, and now a lower rate because of excellent timing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Trump has proposed eliminating the Department of Education, which had a budget of $268B in 2024.  Will he do it?  I'm inclined to believe he won't.  Even so, it wouldn't be enough.

Of course there will be some high visibility cuts of well known discretionary  spending, but this will largely be theatrical in nature and will only result in degraded services benign along the lines of things like drivers license offices in Texas. The function of these cuts will be to cover the very likely reality of growing deficits.

Non-defense discretionary spending is small potatoes.

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Of course there will be some high visibility cuts of well known discretionary  spending, but this will largely be theatrical in nature and will only result in degraded services benign along the lines of things like drivers license offices in Texas. The function of these cuts will be to cover the very likely reality of growing deficits.

Non-defense discretionary spending is small potatoes.

An argument I’ve always made with people on cloak who think we can get there by cutting “waste fraud and abuse” and an argument I’ve had with folks on both sides of the aisle. 
that was a 5 year old argument- it’s possible there’s been enough boondoggle growth with the COVID and then BBB and green new deal stuff (1T bills are lots of money) that it might start adding up to real numbers, but on balance I’m skeptical. What would a 25% reduction in Fed head count do to total spending side now?  And sending back any money not currently spent on some of those bills?  I have no idea. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anyone on the agent side have experience with assumable mortgages?  I'm interested in a Colorado property and want to explore terms with the seller before originating a 30-yr at 6.85% or whatever cockery is being written today.  The home presents a location upgrade and lifestyle improvement, so the math isn't there by walking away from my 2.85% in DFW, but this is what I want for myself.  Pretty shitty time of the year to make a contingent offer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Anyone on the agent side have experience with assumable mortgages?  I'm interested in a Colorado property and want to explore terms with the seller before originating a 30-yr at 6.85% or whatever cockery is being written today.  The home presents a location upgrade and lifestyle improvement, so the math isn't there by walking away from my 2.85% in DFW, but this is what I want for myself.  Pretty shitty time of the year to make a contingent offer.

Good luck.  

The lender doesn't want to do it for obvious reasons (why carry that paper at 3 when they don't have to.  The seller is going to want you to make sure that you pay the mortgage so they are going to want it out of their name (and you are going to have to pay them the delta between what you are taking over v the sales price), and your term will be sort of jacked up.

Now- there are people who are not doing mortgages assumptions with the actual company that holds the mortgage, and just doing a wrap, but then you have to trust the seller to actually pay the mortgage or the home gets foreclosed upon, and you still have the issue of cash differential between sales price and mortgaged amount.

2024 saw 4.62M home sales. The FHA and the VA both had record years for assumptions at over 5,000!  Many lenders (that will allow for them) take over 100 days to figure out how to get them done- 45 seems to be rocking and rolling.  Maybe your seller wants the hassle that goes with that.  Also- note only FHA, VA and USDA loans are set up to be assumable, typically conventional loans are not- but I have seen an odd one here or there advertised- that would be servicer dependent- but go back to the second sentence in my post with "lenders don't want to do it for obvious reasons".

Do you have to do a contingent offer?  With a 2.85% mortgage in Dallas is that a house that will cash flow and makes sense to keep as a rental?

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Good luck.  

The lender doesn't want to do it for obvious reasons (why carry that paper at 3 when they don't have to.  The seller is going to want you to make sure that you pay the mortgage so they are going to want it out of their name (and you are going to have to pay them the delta between what you are taking over v the sales price), and your term will be sort of jacked up.

Now- there are people who are not doing mortgages assumptions with the actual company that holds the mortgage, and just doing a wrap, but then you have to trust the seller to actually pay the mortgage or the home gets foreclosed upon, and you still have the issue of cash differential between sales price and mortgaged amount.

2024 saw 4.62M home sales. The FHA and the VA both had record years for assumptions at over 5,000!  Many lenders (that will allow for them) take over 100 days to figure out how to get them done- 45 seems to be rocking and rolling.  Maybe your seller wants the hassle that goes with that.  Also- note only FHA, VA and USDA loans are set up to be assumable, typically conventional loans are not- but I have seen an odd one here or there advertised- that would be servicer dependent- but go back to the second sentence in my post with "lenders don't want to do it for obvious reasons".

Do you have to do a contingent offer?  With a 2.85% mortgage in Dallas is that a house that will cash flow and makes sense to keep as a rental?

Only a fucking idiot would fall into that trap.  When I do this, I find an escrow/attorney/whatever, and the payments are made to that 3rd party, and that 3rd party has a fiduciary duty to pay the 1st every month. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Only a fucking idiot would fall into that trap.  When I do this, I find an escrow/attorney/whatever, and the payments are made to that 3rd party, and that 3rd party has a fiduciary duty to pay the 1st every month. 

Sure. And if he doesn’t or dies or peace’s out or whatever you can end up with a mess. There’s a reason that very few title companies and attorneys love doing this. What would I know about it I only own a title company and practice as a real estate attorney. The point I’m making is it isn’t a risk free transaction.  As an added bonus there’s always the chance if you title the house to you the old mortgage company calls the note due and full with an acceleration clause for transferring title without paying off the mortgage according to the terms of the deed of trust. The point was it’s not a clean transaction and many sellers and real estate professionals have zero interest in facilitating this transaction for you. I’ve probably done a dozen to 20 of these during my career. I’ve only handled (either personally or through my company 10k plus closings in my career and I’ve done less than 20, which was my point in saying the odds were against him being able to set something like that up. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Jobs over estimate, 10 year up to 8.5 month highs at 4.75 and counting. When we hit those highs in April it started a slide all the way down to 3.6 in September. 

My man. 
looks like we will hit 5 first before there’s any more resistance and technical pressure pushing it down. 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. And if he doesn’t or dies or peace’s out or whatever you can end up with a mess. There’s a reason that very few title companies and attorneys love doing this. What would I know about it I only own a title company and practice as a real estate attorney. The point I’m making is it isn’t a risk free transaction.  As an added bonus there’s always the chance if you title the house to you the old mortgage company calls the note due and full with an acceleration clause for transferring title without paying off the mortgage according to the terms of the deed of trust. The point was it’s not a clean transaction and many sellers and real estate professionals have zero interest in facilitating this transaction for you. I’ve probably done a dozen to 20 of these during my career. I’ve only handled (either personally or through my company 10k plus closings in my career and I’ve done less than 20, which was my point in saying the odds were against him being able to set something like that up. 

 

Anybody who thinks it's a permanent solution is a fool, but it works fine for a short term deal 12-24 months or something.  Gives a buyer a chance to get rid of debt and/or clean up credit to be able to get their own financing. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Just let me mainline my hopium in peace. Just gimme the narcan around 630

Hopium, I like that one.  

 

9 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Jobs over estimate, 10 year up to 8.5 month highs at 4.75 and counting. When we hit those highs in April it started a slide all the way down to 3.6 in September. 

I would not be surprised to see 5.5% first.  But I also think that the Fed may pivot.  In a capitulation to save the RE industry.  I almost wrote something on this earlier, but it was an interesting take on why the Fed will capitulate.  I can't remember the exact words regarding housing starts, but it was basically like a collapse.  Might have said negative?  Then he said the extinctions of additional supply would be a potential more inflationary issue, rather than core inflation. 

This economy is rolling from a hiring perspective, and that eliminates the normal downward rate pressures for the Fed. 

But there is still.... Hopecaine... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, horn4life said:

This economy is rolling from a hiring perspective, and that eliminates the normal downward rate pressures for the Fed. 

I’d like to know where the hiring is coming from because it’s not in real estate/banking and it’s not in tech.  Google is signaling to their staff that more “right-sizing” is coming in ‘25.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I’d like to know where the hiring is coming from because it’s not in real estate/banking and it’s not in tech.  Google is signaling to their staff that more “right-sizing” is coming in ‘25.  

As far as the IRS is concerned I have 7 jobs. Most are just marketing for buddy's small companies but since one of the 7 is an accountant he ruined the fun for all of us 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, UTPhil2006 said:

As far as the IRS is concerned I have 7 jobs. Most are just marketing for buddy's small companies but since one of the 7 is an accountant he ruined the fun for all of us 

This is where @Wulaw Horn has his rightful anger. The jobs report is skewed data at best. Which the DJI can rebound from bunk data in a day but the ^TNX can't. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, LCHorn said:

I’d like to know where the hiring is coming from because it’s not in real estate/banking and it’s not in tech.  Google is signaling to their staff that more “right-sizing” is coming in ‘25.  

15-22 year olds and seasonal revisions. We actually had -82k before seasonal adjustments. 

IMG_1579.png

IMG_1578.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I hope the reporting at least cleans up under the new admin 

This this this this this.  
it’s disgraceful and shameful. Revisions down 20 of the last 21 (maybe 22) months. 
the 850k jobs that went poof last summer? . It’s so gross and disgusting the bullshit either lies or incompetence that’s come out of the BLS the last 2 or 3 years. It’s actively fucking over buyers and distorting the market. 

  • Like 2
  • Rage+1 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/10/2025 at 6:37 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. And if he doesn’t or dies or peace’s out or whatever you can end up with a mess. There’s a reason that very few title companies and attorneys love doing this. What would I know about it I only own a title company and practice as a real estate attorney. The point I’m making is it isn’t a risk free transaction.  As an added bonus there’s always the chance if you title the house to you the old mortgage company calls the note due and full with an acceleration clause for transferring title without paying off the mortgage according to the terms of the deed of trust. The point was it’s not a clean transaction and many sellers and real estate professionals have zero interest in facilitating this transaction for you. I’ve probably done a dozen to 20 of these during my career. I’ve only handled (either personally or through my company 10k plus closings in my career and I’ve done less than 20, which was my point in saying the odds were against him being able to set something like that up. 

Just out of curiosity, how often do you combine your ability to write an RE sale contract as an attorney, and provide lending?  Seems like that could be a sweet spot, for RE investors trying to minimize transactional costs? Or do you avoid the lending if you write the contract?  Just curious.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Just out of curiosity, how often do you combine your ability to write an RE sale contract as an attorney, and provide lending?  Seems like that could be a sweet spot, for RE investors trying to minimize transactional costs? Or do you avoid the lending if you write the contract?  Just curious.

Almost never write contracts. Only when a buyer comes to me with a no realtor deal (usually when buying from a family member) and I do it for free. I have zero desire to be in competition with potential referral partners. 
similarly, when I do any legal work like deeds or releases or the like for my clients I do them gratis. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, horn4life said:

Just out of curiosity, how often do you combine your ability to write an RE sale contract as an attorney, and provide lending?  Seems like that could be a sweet spot, for RE investors trying to minimize transactional costs? Or do you avoid the lending if you write the contract?  Just curious.

I’m pretty sure there‘s regulatory barriers but there’s also clear conflict of interest issues.  As a lender we work for the bank, and you as a borrower are a customer.  I want to look out for you because that’s good customer service, but if I don’t put the bank first I’m going to get fired.   
 

A realtor is contractually obligated to represent their side of the transaction and has a fiduciary duty to act in the best interest of the client.  

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Almost never write contracts. Only when a buyer comes to me with a no realtor deal (usually when buying from a family member) and I do it for free. I have zero desire to be in competition with potential referral partners. 
similarly, when I do any legal work like deeds or releases or the like for my clients I do them gratis. 

I figured it would be somebody close to you who had a buyer for an inherited house, and might want to save realtor costs.   Otherwise too much potential for conflicts, unless it was somebody close to you that you have personal history with.  Most folks don't even know for example attorneys can write RE contracts.  Only reason it even came to my mind is once we get my Dad's lake house remodeled I intended to have an open house, as many of the neighbors have expressed and are curious about the remode.  So it's possible someone might make an acceptable offer before we list it. 

And I had talked with a guy in our neighborhood who moved a couple doors down a few years ago to a very similar house.  And I was wondering how it was worth it with all the closing costs, and he mentioned having an attorney write the contract.  The older neighbors were having a garage sale and they asked about the house.  it was a good deal for both of them.  And it was organic, not agent driven on either side.

Plus I guess the last thing you want to be known for to realtors is a guy cutting into their business!  I didn't really think about that aspect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I figured it would be somebody close to you who had a buyer for an inherited house, and might want to save realtor costs.   Otherwise too much potential for conflicts, unless it was somebody close to you that you have personal history with.  Most folks don't even know for example attorneys can write RE contracts.  Only reason it even came to my mind is once we get my Dad's lake house remodeled I intended to have an open house, as many of the neighbors have expressed and are curious about the remode.  So it's possible someone might make an acceptable offer before we list it. 

And I had talked with a guy in our neighborhood who moved a couple doors down a few years ago to a very similar house.  And I was wondering how it was worth it with all the closing costs, and he mentioned having an attorney write the contract.  The older neighbors were having a garage sale and they asked about the house.  it was a good deal for both of them.  And it was organic, not agent driven on either side.

Plus I guess the last thing you want to be known for to realtors is a guy cutting into their business!  I didn't really think about that aspect.

When I do a deal like that I send an email with 10 questions. 1) name 2) address 3) email 4 phone number 5 sales price 6) do you have a survey…

stuff like that. I say get together, answer all of these, send it to me from both of yall- if you aren’t in agreement on all the data go get an agent to help you sort it out and negotiate.  I’m basically just identifying the blanks to be filled in, provided they do actually have agreement on everything. 
if you decide to do that I can give you the actual full list and you can do that at your open house if you want- no problem. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

When I do a deal like that I send an email with 10 questions. 1) name 2) address 3) email 4 phone number 5 sales price 6) do you have a survey…

stuff like that. I say get together, answer all of these, send it to me from both of yall- if you aren’t in agreement on all the data go get an agent to help you sort it out and negotiate.  I’m basically just identifying the blanks to be filled in, provided they do actually have agreement on everything. 
if you decide to do that I can give you the actual full list and you can do that at your open house if you want- no problem. 

It probably will not be that easy, but I very much appreciate the offer!  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, horn4life said:

It probably will not be that easy, but I very much appreciate the offer!  

This has certainly come up previously in the 500 pages of this thread and it’s predecessor, but almost every purchase I’ve been party to in which a borrower tried to go without an agent ends up being a shit show, including my own.  Maybe it’s worth it when reflecting a few years later, but it’s definitely a roll of the dice.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

This has certainly come up previously in the 500 pages of this thread and it’s predecessor, but almost every purchase I’ve been party to in which a borrower tried to go without an agent ends up being a shit show, including my own.  Maybe it’s worth it when reflecting a few years later, but it’s definitely a roll of the dice.  

For sure. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

repeat investor client wants to see a house today.

We meet at the house.  Client asks if I drink.

well, yeah.

Says her resolution is to give up alcohol, and she's got a well-stocked bar at home.  Would I be interested in swinging by her house and "disposing" of the alcohol for her? 

I give 100% for all my clients.  How could I deny such a request?  

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2025 is the year a ton of commercial real estate loans need to be refinanced. As that all starts to crater, it will start taking the economy with it and the Fed will cut rates. Might take awhile though. 

On the labor revisions, that is always way off. I don’t think it is a particular administration. It’s just very hard to get the number accurate in a short period of time. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

2025 is the year a ton of commercial real estate loans need to be refinanced. As that all starts to crater, it will start taking the economy with it and the Fed will cut rates. Might take awhile though. 

On the labor revisions, that is always way off. I don’t think it is a particular administration. It’s just very hard to get the number accurate in a short period of time. 

Sure. The problem is it’s off 90% of the time in one direction lately. It should be 50/50. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...