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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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1 hour ago, horn4life said:

See there is a way to lower rates!  Either have me buy back in a bit to PLTR, or have the overall stock market sell off more broadly.  

10 year down to 4.518, or 10 basis points,  Dow futures down 1%, nasdaq down 4%.  

 

 

Looooong way to go but every little bit counts 

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From CNBC a sec ago -New home sales up to 698K vs 671K estimate.  New home sales based on signed contracts during the month.  Median sale price up 2.1% year over year, along with the obvious high interest rates. Incentives and mortgage buydowns.  Said most increases in NE and West.  

I will be curious how the MMI looks.  Builders and lenders are two different animals, though clearly symbiotic in nature.  I spoke way back about "buyer capitulation" on interest rates, and what might show that would be a rising MMI even against the higher rate?  But if new homes are still rising year over year, and that translates to the larger market, prices are going up.  If that is the case, then you make up that point you are trying to save in appreciation fairly rapidly.

 

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First- I assume everyone expects the Fed to stand pat and do nothing?

Second - I was listening to the guy that runs/founded compass  on either bloomberg or CNBC and her had some interesting comments I latched onto.  He was talking about Miami and Austin being tougher markets because we led the upswing.  He said that 40% of the listings in Austin had taken a price reduction. Which I thought was an interesting sign of sale price  expectations bumping up against reality.  MMI was down to 220 with national average of 7.02% mortgage same as last report.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
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Business Employment Dynamics report in today.  It's where they look at what was reported 12 months ago and then compare to what actually happened when they get the data in.  

The birth death model added 653,000 jobs.   The actual figure was a loss of -163,000.  Good job fella's good job. Net everything out and here's what happened:

April 108k jobs reported should have actually been 51k

May- 216k jobs reported should have been 159k reported

June- 118k reported should have been 61k

Total for the quarter:  442k reported, 271k actual.  This was a fucking fiasco.  Heads should roll.  That's probably difference in 1/2 a point (at least) in mortgages if we were getting honest and accurate numbers then vs what was reported.  

By the way- inflation the numbers are wrong too.  something like 40% of the inflation figure for shelter is owners equivalent rent. This is an absurd measurement of shelter costs. You basically ask someone who owns and lives in their house- "how much would you rent this place out for" and they sample that and average it out and get a figure. It has NOTHING to do with actual rental prices or the market- it's me asking yall to pull a number out of your ass and tell me what it would rent for.  Last month- shelter was negative in the real world- but I bet we come in at 3.5% or something dumb like that.  This one simple trick, getting honest and accurate numbers, would make a huge difference in where we are at right now.  So frustrating and infuriating.  

 

 

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