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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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1 hour ago, horn4life said:

See there is a way to lower rates!  Either have me buy back in a bit to PLTR, or have the overall stock market sell off more broadly.  

10 year down to 4.518, or 10 basis points,  Dow futures down 1%, nasdaq down 4%.  

 

 

Looooong way to go but every little bit counts 

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From CNBC a sec ago -New home sales up to 698K vs 671K estimate.  New home sales based on signed contracts during the month.  Median sale price up 2.1% year over year, along with the obvious high interest rates. Incentives and mortgage buydowns.  Said most increases in NE and West.  

I will be curious how the MMI looks.  Builders and lenders are two different animals, though clearly symbiotic in nature.  I spoke way back about "buyer capitulation" on interest rates, and what might show that would be a rising MMI even against the higher rate?  But if new homes are still rising year over year, and that translates to the larger market, prices are going up.  If that is the case, then you make up that point you are trying to save in appreciation fairly rapidly.

 

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7 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

New to the thread? And that was one sentence of one comment. 

I'm not getting at a political reference (they're obviously intertwined), I'm talking about the idea that long term rates can be shrugged off. They index most of the industry.

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First- I assume everyone expects the Fed to stand pat and do nothing?

Second - I was listening to the guy that runs/founded compass  on either bloomberg or CNBC and her had some interesting comments I latched onto.  He was talking about Miami and Austin being tougher markets because we led the upswing.  He said that 40% of the listings in Austin had taken a price reduction. Which I thought was an interesting sign of sale price  expectations bumping up against reality.  MMI was down to 220 with national average of 7.02% mortgage same as last report.

 

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Business Employment Dynamics report in today.  It's where they look at what was reported 12 months ago and then compare to what actually happened when they get the data in.  

The birth death model added 653,000 jobs.   The actual figure was a loss of -163,000.  Good job fella's good job. Net everything out and here's what happened:

April 108k jobs reported should have actually been 51k

May- 216k jobs reported should have been 159k reported

June- 118k reported should have been 61k

Total for the quarter:  442k reported, 271k actual.  This was a fucking fiasco.  Heads should roll.  That's probably difference in 1/2 a point (at least) in mortgages if we were getting honest and accurate numbers then vs what was reported.  

By the way- inflation the numbers are wrong too.  something like 40% of the inflation figure for shelter is owners equivalent rent. This is an absurd measurement of shelter costs. You basically ask someone who owns and lives in their house- "how much would you rent this place out for" and they sample that and average it out and get a figure. It has NOTHING to do with actual rental prices or the market- it's me asking yall to pull a number out of your ass and tell me what it would rent for.  Last month- shelter was negative in the real world- but I bet we come in at 3.5% or something dumb like that.  This one simple trick, getting honest and accurate numbers, would make a huge difference in where we are at right now.  So frustrating and infuriating.  

 

 

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On 1/29/2025 at 9:13 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Business Employment Dynamics report in today.  It's where they look at what was reported 12 months ago and then compare to what actually happened when they get the data in.  

The birth death model added 653,000 jobs.   The actual figure was a loss of -163,000.  Good job fella's good job. Net everything out and here's what happened:

April 108k jobs reported should have actually been 51k

May- 216k jobs reported should have been 159k reported

June- 118k reported should have been 61k

Total for the quarter:  442k reported, 271k actual.  This was a fucking fiasco.  Heads should roll.  That's probably difference in 1/2 a point (at least) in mortgages if we were getting honest and accurate numbers then vs what was reported.  

By the way- inflation the numbers are wrong too.  something like 40% of the inflation figure for shelter is owners equivalent rent. This is an absurd measurement of shelter costs. You basically ask someone who owns and lives in their house- "how much would you rent this place out for" and they sample that and average it out and get a figure. It has NOTHING to do with actual rental prices or the market- it's me asking yall to pull a number out of your ass and tell me what it would rent for.  Last month- shelter was negative in the real world- but I bet we come in at 3.5% or something dumb like that.  This one simple trick, getting honest and accurate numbers, would make a huge difference in where we are at right now.  So frustrating and infuriating.  

 

 

I really do hate the owner equivalent rent stat. It's been a pet wonky rant of mine for a while. CPI absolutely lags on rents. Private sector data shows rents have been more or less flat nationally (some markets up, some down, based mostly on how much of a supply surge has been experienced locally) for like 18 months. It's only now just starting to tick up meaningfully above 0.0 and probably won't really ramp up until we get toward the end of this year.

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8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I really do hate the owner equivalent rent stat. It's been a pet wonky rant of mine for a while. CPI absolutely lags on rents. Private sector data shows rents have been more or less flat nationally (some markets up, some down, based mostly on how much of a supply surge has been experienced locally) for like 18 months. It's only now just starting to tick up meaningfully above 0.0 and probably won't really ramp up until we get toward the end of this year.

If you did that at the rate the private sector data shows, which would be much better, inflation would be at 2.2%  Which would be up from the 1.5-1.7 it would have been at for the last 6-9 months.  I HATE this. So irritating. Add in the bullshit job numbers and we are punching ourselves in the dick repeatedly and making life much harder for everyone (credit cards, cars, homes) for NO FUCKING REASON.  Grrrrrrrr.  

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On 1/29/2025 at 11:13 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

Business Employment Dynamics report in today.  It's where they look at what was reported 12 months ago and then compare to what actually happened when they get the data in.  

The birth death model added 653,000 jobs.   The actual figure was a loss of -163,000.  Good job fella's good job. Net everything out and here's what happened:

April 108k jobs reported should have actually been 51k

May- 216k jobs reported should have been 159k reported

June- 118k reported should have been 61k

Total for the quarter:  442k reported, 271k actual.  This was a fucking fiasco.  Heads should roll.  That's probably difference in 1/2 a point (at least) in mortgages if we were getting honest and accurate numbers then vs what was reported.  

By the way- inflation the numbers are wrong too.  something like 40% of the inflation figure for shelter is owners equivalent rent. This is an absurd measurement of shelter costs. You basically ask someone who owns and lives in their house- "how much would you rent this place out for" and they sample that and average it out and get a figure. It has NOTHING to do with actual rental prices or the market- it's me asking yall to pull a number out of your ass and tell me what it would rent for.  Last month- shelter was negative in the real world- but I bet we come in at 3.5% or something dumb like that.  This one simple trick, getting honest and accurate numbers, would make a huge difference in where we are at right now.  So frustrating and infuriating.  

 

 

Man, I would think things like tarrifs and deporting most of the labor force that builds houses would hurt home buyers - not a wonky and historically inaccurate metric pushing rates up a quarter point

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35 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Man, I would think things like tarrifs and deporting most of the labor force that builds houses would hurt home buyers - not a wonky and historically inaccurate metric pushing rates up a quarter point

Well seeing as that just happened this week, what's your explanation for the last 2.5 years?

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5 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Well seeing as that just happened this week, what's your explanation for the last 2.5 years?

Yep. Also- mbs market is up since inauguration which means rates are down. Incredibly small sample size but uh, yeah not only was that response totally and completely irrelevant to what was being talked about but it was also factually wrong, so… yeah! 

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep. Also- mbs market is up since inauguration which means rates are down. Incredibly small sample size but uh, yeah not only was that response totally and completely irrelevant to what was being talked about but it was also factually wrong, so… yeah! 

Spiking the football at the 5 yard line isn’t a great idea. Right now long term rates are being affected by a combination of a potential risk of inflation, offset by a flight to safety over concerns about the economy. Rates are bouncing around a fairly narrow range right now. It’s mostly meaningless. The main act won’t hit for several months. Let’s see what happens by summer to October timeframe. By then, it should be clear whether inflation will re-ignite or not, and whether Trump policies end up being good or bad. 

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4 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Spiking the football at the 5 yard line isn’t a great idea. Right now long term rates are being affected by a combination of a potential risk of inflation, offset by a flight to safety over concerns about the economy. Rates are bouncing around a fairly narrow range right now. It’s mostly meaningless. The main act won’t hit for several months. Let’s see what happens by summer to October timeframe. By then, it should be clear whether inflation will re-ignite or not, and whether Trump policies end up being good or bad. 

Yeah- I wasn’t spiking any football dude.
 

“Incredibly small sample size” was literally the lead in my sentence.
 

The main point was it was irrelevant. The other point was it was incredibly fucking dumb and he doesn’t even know that mbs up means rate down, nor did he understand that the post he  quoted was literally talking about what rates did last year and how last years job numbers being wrong- which I have been posting about on here for 24 months, while mocked by many, only to be proven over and over and over again conclusively to be right- made rates too high for months now. 
 

inflation might spike again. I don’t think it will. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong as it is anytime you are lining up bets about a future event, but that’s entirely different than what that was. 

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah- I wasn’t spiking any football dude.
 

“Incredibly small sample size” was literally the lead in my sentence.
 

The main point was it was irrelevant. The other point was it was incredibly fucking dumb and he doesn’t even know that mbs up means rate down, nor did he understand that the post he  quoted was literally talking about what rates did last year and how last years job numbers being wrong- which I have been posting about on here for 24 months, while mocked by many, only to be proven over and over and over again conclusively to be right- made rates too high for months now. 
 

inflation might spike again. I don’t think it will. Someone will be right and someone will be wrong as it is anytime you are lining up bets about a future event, but that’s entirely different than what that was. 

I can’t comment on the other poster’s post because I didn’t read it. I was only referencing your inference that the inauguration was responsible for an improvement in rates.  

There is virtually no correlation at all at this point because no one in the bond market understands the policies and impact of those policies. So my point is that the current sample size is zero, not small. 

In fact, if the bond market actually did react by now to stated policies, then the ten year would probably be at 5% and rising. Why hasn’t it? They aren’t sure what the policies really are because this administration has a history of saying one thing and doing another, often as a negotiating tactic.  The bond market is taking that into account at this point and as a result rates have been bouncing around.

And on the topic of jobs, early reported job numbers have always been way off, and often too optimistic. It’s been that way forever. It’s a difficult metric to get accurate data early. It’s is not unusual at all to see them revised downward, a lot. 

If people are mocking you (I’m not), maybe it’s because you are assuming the Fed doesn’t understand that and as a result have kept rates too high for too long. That is a bit naive. Like I said, these revised job numbers surprise no one, including the Fed. They have more data in front of them than we could ever imagine. Sometimes they get it wrong. Sometimes they get it right. You boasting that you are the only one to get it right is not only premature, it’s a fifty fifty coin flip anyway. 

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23 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I can’t comment on the other poster’s post because I didn’t read it. I was only referencing your inference that the inauguration was responsible for an improvement in rates.  

There is virtually no correlation at all at this point because no one in the bond market understands the policies and impact of those policies. So my point is that the current sample size is zero, not small. 

In fact, if the bond market actually did react by now to stated policies, then the ten year would probably be at 5% and rising. Why hasn’t it? They aren’t sure what the policies really are because this administration has a history of saying one thing and doing another, often as a negotiating tactic.  The bond market is taking that into account at this point and as a result rates have been bouncing around.

And on the topic of jobs, early reported job numbers have always been way off, and often too optimistic. It’s been that way forever. It’s a difficult metric to get accurate data early. It’s is not unusual at all to see them revised downward, a lot. 

If people are mocking you (I’m not), maybe it’s because you are assuming the Fed doesn’t understand that and as a result have kept rates too high for too long. That is a bit naive. Like I said, these revised job numbers surprise no one, including the Fed. They have more data in front of them than we could ever imagine. Sometimes they get it wrong. Sometimes they get it right. You boasting that you are the only one to get it right is not only premature, it’s a fifty fifty coin flip anyway. 

They overstated by double and that’s after they revised downward 2X.  Its absurd. 

I have no idea why you persist in talking about my post about the mbs market since inauguration. As should have been obvious when I started the sentence with incredibly small sample size and then further obvious when I had a follow up post saying I wasn’t making any definitive statement other than Mr marching band isn’t even a half wit and should probably let the grown ups talk, it’s odd that you are making substantive long cat posts responding back to me mocking Mr matching band- after Phil also slightly more delicately told him he was a window licking moron with his post as well. 

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8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

They overstated by double and that’s after they revised downward 2X.  Its absurd. 

I have no idea why you persist in talking about my post about the mbs market since inauguration. As should have been obvious when I started the sentence with incredibly small sample size and then further obvious when I had a follow up post saying I wasn’t making any definitive statement other than Mr marching band isn’t even a half wit and should probably let the grown ups talk, it’s odd that you are making substantive long cat posts responding back to me mocking Mr matching band- after Phil also slightly more delicately told him he was a window licking moron with his post as well. 

Shocked Girl GIF by AsmodeeGames

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I don't think focusing on the nuances of employment reporting hoping for pressure on the fed is much but wishful thinking.  It's the same in every administration.  Or is the hope that the incoming administration will start reporting big drops in employment? In the name of greater accuracy and transparency? 

The big dog in the room is inflation right now, and tariffs will make prices rise. And once prices rise?  They tend to stay very sticky even if the tariff is temporary.  Inflation is where the focus should be.  At least for now.  Most every person within the administration when asked about prices going up, has mentioned temporary pain.  When the administration is telling us on the Sunday morning shows that yes, tariffs are going to cause inflation at least temporarily, I believe them.  

Basically the Fed has a dual mandate for controlling inflation without destroying employment. Or helping employment at the cost of inflation.  Both move as a result of momentum. Momentum which causes the fed to forecast where that momentum is going. BUT right now, the Fed is not driving the Bus!  Inflation and additional bloating of gov't debt that is unavoidable. Is where the bond market if focused, and that is ultimately where rates get set.  Best bet right now for lower rates is stock market collapse.  Then WTF does that do? 

I can imagine how frustrating it is to have rates settling in as such a high point, even if temporary, for you guys in the industry.  High inflation means, higher rates, which means stock valuations are too fucking lofty, which means stock market retreat.  All in varying levels of degrees in the short term (3-6 months). We are in a fragile place IMHO.  So you may get that rate cut you are wanting, but at a price that is also largely distasteful...

 

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check out this bullshit email I got on a house I arranged to show

 

Dear agent:
 
You have scheduled a showing to view 5166 STREET NAME HERE for tomorrow, 2/1, form 11-1.
 
Sellers' Specific Showing Instructions and Restrictions:
  • Your name must be in the appointment list from showingtime to be able to view the home with your client(s). Please share all showing instructions with your clients.
  • Buyer(s) are not allowed to view the house without their agent. No exceptions.
  • The Listing agent may accompany every party throughout the house during the showing.
  • We ask you to tour the house as quickly as possible and have your discussions with your clients outside the house to allow time for everyone to view the property. Depending on the group side we may allow 2-3 groups at the time.
  • The house is packed with the seller's personal property and boxes, we advise to exercise caution when touring the house.
  •  One of the sellers may be in a video call at the entrance of the house checking everyone coming in and out of the house. 
  • VIDEO RECORDING is strictly prohibited
  • VIDEO STREAMING is strictly prohibited, including facetime.
  • PHOTO TAKING is strictly prohibited
  • Buyers and agents are LIMITED to VIEWING ONLY and must NOT:
    • Open drawers, closets or built-in storage
    • Open any doors
    • Touch or examine personal items
    • Test appliances
    • Open water faucets
    • Use bathrooms 
I'm sharing interior pictures before the showing for you and your buyers to view. These pictures are NOT AUTHORIZED to be downloaded, shared, published or streamed online.
 
 
Important information:
We have received multiple offers. The 2nd and 3rd lender will require short sale approval. We are expecting offers in the low to mid 800s from the first group showing at this moment. 
 
Guidance for your offer:
 
- RPA, or (use NODPA if investor)
- POF and/or Approval letter if conventional or hard money
- 3 sold comparables
- Estimate supporting your price
- Title and Escrow by Lawyer Title (already pre-opened) 
- SOLD AS IS (no seller's credit, no termite clearance, no request for repair)
- Short Sale Addendum (C.A.R. Form SSA)
- Short Sale Information Advisory (C.A.R. SSIA)
- Zero days for assignments
- COE 30-45 days preferred
- Buyer to assume Solar Panel Lease agreement 
- This is a Short Sale so  Final Purchase Price to be contingent upon Short Sale lender's consent.
- Items to convey: 1 refrigerator and 1 dishwasher (working condition unknown). Stove, washer and dryer, 2nd refrigerator will not convey.
 
I know this is a lot of information to process, but I want to make sure everyone is clear. Please let me know if you have any questions before the showing.
 
 
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2 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

check out this bullshit email I got on a house I arranged to show

 

Dear agent:
 
You have scheduled a showing to view 5166 STREET NAME HERE for tomorrow, 2/1, form 11-1.
 
Sellers' Specific Showing Instructions and Restrictions:
  • Your name must be in the appointment list from showingtime to be able to view the home with your client(s). Please share all showing instructions with your clients.
  • Buyer(s) are not allowed to view the house without their agent. No exceptions.
  • The Listing agent may accompany every party throughout the house during the showing.
  • We ask you to tour the house as quickly as possible and have your discussions with your clients outside the house to allow time for everyone to view the property. Depending on the group side we may allow 2-3 groups at the time.
  • The house is packed with the seller's personal property and boxes, we advise to exercise caution when touring the house.
  •  One of the sellers may be in a video call at the entrance of the house checking everyone coming in and out of the house. 
  • VIDEO RECORDING is strictly prohibited
  • VIDEO STREAMING is strictly prohibited, including facetime.
  • PHOTO TAKING is strictly prohibited
  • Buyers and agents are LIMITED to VIEWING ONLY and must NOT:
    • Open drawers, closets or built-in storage
    • Open any doors
    • Touch or examine personal items
    • Test appliances
    • Open water faucets
    • Use bathrooms 
I'm sharing interior pictures before the showing for you and your buyers to view. These pictures are NOT AUTHORIZED to be downloaded, shared, published or streamed online.
 
 
Important information:
We have received multiple offers. The 2nd and 3rd lender will require short sale approval. We are expecting offers in the low to mid 800s from the first group showing at this moment. 
 
Guidance for your offer:
 
- RPA, or (use NODPA if investor)
- POF and/or Approval letter if conventional or hard money
- 3 sold comparables
- Estimate supporting your price
- Title and Escrow by Lawyer Title (already pre-opened) 
- SOLD AS IS (no seller's credit, no termite clearance, no request for repair)
- Short Sale Addendum (C.A.R. Form SSA)
- Short Sale Information Advisory (C.A.R. SSIA)
- Zero days for assignments
- COE 30-45 days preferred
- Buyer to assume Solar Panel Lease agreement 
- This is a Short Sale so  Final Purchase Price to be contingent upon Short Sale lender's consent.
- Items to convey: 1 refrigerator and 1 dishwasher (working condition unknown). Stove, washer and dryer, 2nd refrigerator will not convey.
 
I know this is a lot of information to process, but I want to make sure everyone is clear. Please let me know if you have any questions before the showing.
 
 

Lotta rules for a damn short sale.  And what market is this where somebody is upside down enough to be doing a short sale?  Those are exceedingly rare these days.

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7 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Lotta rules for a damn short sale.  And what market is this where somebody is upside down enough to be doing a short sale?  Those are exceedingly rare these days.

This one is in Oceanside, CA, in a market that's been on the upswing for several years. 

The house is fucking trashed, which is why it's upside-down. 

and this dumb cunt thinks she's going to negotiate a short sale with two different lenders in 30-45 days?  Hahaha.  sure Jan. 

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1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

This one is in Oceanside, CA, in a market that's been on the upswing for several years. 

The house is fucking trashed, which is why it's upside-down. 

and this dumb cunt thinks she's going to negotiate a short sale with two different lenders in 30-45 days?  Hahaha.  sure Jan. 

Yall don't have wholesale buyers there? We get like 10 emails a day from them fucks 

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From this past week:

 

 

Hi Gil, hope you and your loved ones are safe from the crazy fires that have gone on recently. Wanted to quickly check in again, any new off-market fixers available or coming up sometime in the next few weeks that you can share more details on?

 

Hi Gil happy New Year! Do you have any off-market fixers available? I'd love to check them out before they hit the market! -John

 

Hi, Gill! This is Louise from Silver Bay Homes. How are you? Do you currently have any fixers or multi-units in San Diego or LA that you can represent us on?

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

From this past week:

 

 

Hi Gil, hope you and your loved ones are safe from the crazy fires that have gone on recently. Wanted to quickly check in again, any new off-market fixers available or coming up sometime in the next few weeks that you can share more details on?

 

Hi Gil happy New Year! Do you have any off-market fixers available? I'd love to check them out before they hit the market! -John

 

Hi, Gill! This is Louise from Silver Bay Homes. How are you? Do you currently have any fixers or multi-units in San Diego or LA that you can represent us on?

 

 

Hey Gil... Wanna bang? 

 

 

 

woulda been a lot cooler...

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2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Ever have family or friends not use your services?  That would piss me off but most of my realtor friends say more often than not their SOI will use other people.  
 

what is the #1 reason or excuse they use?

As a mortgage guy I have no problem with it. I know all your finances if you do a mortgage with me and that can be awkward for a friend.  I imagine the argument is somewhat the same for an agent.  That's actually sort of dumb b/c everyone knows what you bought or sold your house for (more or less) without knowing your financial stance, but that's a distinction not many probably make.

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2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Ever have family or friends not use your services?

 

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

As a mortgage guy I have no problem with it

I used to get super butt-hurt about it when I was originating about 3 loans a month back in the early 2010’s.  Once my production increased to more like 10 a month in 2017 (before it went really bonkers), I stopped caring.  In other words, the resentment was more about scarcity, and that’s kind of a burden to put on a friendship (and selfish of me).  
 

I do really appreciate when friends come to me for a loan but @Wulaw Horn is right, maintaining privacy and the ability to fire me for poor performance are very valid reasons (and I tell people that because it’s pretty unusual for someone to not have a friend that’s a lender and sometimes borrowers feel obligated to use the friend).  

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From the customer side, I agree with both of you.  I am not interested in sharing my personal finances with a friend, nor am I going to want my actions to be muted by our friendship in the event I feel I need to move on to a different Realtor.  I've explained this to a few in the business when I've listed a house and they have all understood completely.

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Thank you for everyone here who let me help them last year. I truly appreciate it. 
 
IMG_1610.thumb.jpeg.3fb69f25dfe66afe75ce5b6881ba0145.jpeg

You won't remember this but we almost delayed closing by a day due to my idiocy and an HOA document snafu that got worked out.

First thing they did when I moved in was hand me the HOA job (it’s one street with 9 houses). Guess who is now an expert at getting liftmaster gate operators replaced?

Now I want to raise rates and hire a landscape architect. A sober drunk with power.
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1 hour ago, BearSchlong said:


You won't remember this but we almost delayed closing by a day due to my idiocy and an HOA document snafu that got worked out.

First thing they did when I moved in was hand me the HOA job (it’s one street with 9 houses). Guess who is now an expert at getting liftmaster gate operators replaced?

Now I want to raise rates and hire a landscape architect. A sober drunk with power.

That’s awesome!  

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