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Posted
1 hour ago, LTtxfan said:

⬆Please explain @Wulaw Horn like I'm a 5yr old.

Just curious how mortgage market and real estate market are currently doing??

10 year was at 3.88 Friday morning. It is at 4.45 today. Anything above say .05/day is not crazy bad but bad. .57 in basically 3 mornings is horribad. We were basically in here in mid February so not all is lost, but there was a massive potential for a crapton of people to refi that went poof (for now). 

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Posted

well spreads are spiking up to and maybe past 163 basis points on top of a 10-year treasury hitting 4.43%. So might stick above 7%. So... not good. Oh, and steel, lumber, copper, and aluminum are tariffed fubar'd so builders are gonna be pinched. At least oil might hit $40 and tens of thousands of unemployed can learn how to hang cheap Chinese drywall.... oh wait. 

But my selling mom's house and closes 4/30 (under contract) so maybe it's all good.

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Posted
1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

Is Habib saying anything positive?

Nope. 

Nothing positive to say beyond- of this all gets wrapped up one way or another we should snap right back. But nobody knows what the end game is so who knows? 

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Posted
2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year was at 3.88 Friday morning. It is at 4.45 today. Anything above say .05/day is not crazy bad but bad. .57 in basically 3 mornings is horribad. We were basically in here in mid February so not all is lost, but there was a massive potential for a crapton of people to refi that went poof (for now). 

Thx to you and Wulaw for explanations... crazy that rates have moved up that much... 😬

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Posted
4 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Thx to you and Wulaw for explanations... crazy that rates have moved up that much... 😬

It's not normal stuff for sure. The world is super volatile right now. It's hard and frustrating operating in that market environment. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

It's not normal stuff for sure. The world is super volatile right now. It's hard and frustrating operating in that market environment. 

Some builders likely in a bind with volatility of materials prices 

Posted

within an hour of each other, two of my investor clients called me and told me to stop searching for them; they are holding off any further investments and hoarding cash.

4 million worth of cash buyers gone in a poof. 

 

Thanks, Obama?

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gil Bang said:

within an hour of each other, two of my investor clients called me and told me to stop searching for them; they are holding off any further investments and hoarding cash.

4 million worth of cash buyers gone in a poof. 

 

Thanks, Obama?

My Austin realtor buddy (so damn tight we had the same blood type) said he had some clients from Denver cancel on him when Donald won the election

Posted
20 minutes ago, westexhorn said:

The US bond market is behaving in a very scary way... US dollar drop, stocks drop, US bonds drop... 

So…what you’re saying is that, considering the future, we should all invest in the cannabis industry?   

Posted
30 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?

sheeet go in the water, water go in the cup, water go in the stomach, sheet come out your butt

sheet go in the water, water go in the cup, sheeet go in the stomach, blood come out your butt

Posted
2 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

Can you explain this to me like I'm 5?

Everything US getting sold which could mean decreased confidence in the US by the market (including foreign funds).  Usually see this type of behavior in 3rd world country markets.  US (particularly US treasuries) could be losing its impression as safe haven.  Anyways, just plenty to think about and monitor.

Posted

Predicting the direction of 10 year rates right now is impossible. We have multiple competing data points. Inflation is down, but has the potential to sky rocket because of US debt levels and tariff policies. 

Interest rates could drop like a rock as we tumble into a self-induced recession. Or, they could stay relatively the same as the yield curve normalizes. 

I’ve just been laddering bonds. Screw predicting. It’s impossible. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I'll explain it to y'all like you're 5. 

We're turbo fucked.    Fucking morons are in charge.   Prepare your anus.  

I actually think it goes down the next 10 days but I'm not Habib and I think the Astros are hosed this year 

Posted

I was convinced we were going to see +25 to +30 on the MBS 5.5 coupon yesterday.  Instead it opened at like -3 and just kept dropping from there.  
 

Usually when there’s this much volatility there’s some move towards an equilibrium in which we recover maybe half of what we lost, but I don’t think we’re done yet with the price deterioration.  

Posted
12 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I was convinced we were going to see +25 to +30 on the MBS 5.5 coupon yesterday.  Instead it opened at like -3 and just kept dropping from there.  
 

Usually when there’s this much volatility there’s some move towards an equilibrium in which we recover maybe half of what we lost, but I don’t think we’re done yet with the price deterioration.  

Good inflation report the other day.  Apparently everyone is hoarding gold! 

Posted

PPI came in way lower than expectations, so, that’s interesting. 
I don’t fully understand tariffs being a 1 time inflation event and not a big shock to the final number- but I do know that’s a prevailing school of thought. I guess it will kill demand either way price hikes and not lead to more money chasing fewer goods on one hand, but on the other prices all will go up, so I don’t understand the balance point or the measurement aspect of it. 
if we can dodge stagflation that’s obviously positive  as compared to worst case possibilities with however this shakes out. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

PPI came in way lower than expectations, so, that’s interesting. 
I don’t fully understand tariffs being a 1 time inflation event and not a big shock to the final number- but I do know that’s a prevailing school of thought. I guess it will kill demand either way price hikes and not lead to more money chasing fewer goods on one hand, but on the other prices all will go up, so I don’t understand the balance point or the measurement aspect of it. 
if we can dodge stagflation that’s obviously positive  as compared to worst case possibilities with however this shakes out. 

The Eurodollar podcast guy thinks a recession is imminent.  Granted, I mostly stopped listening to that one because he’s been saying that since 2022.  

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Posted
59 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

The Eurodollar podcast guy thinks a recession is imminent.  Granted, I mostly stopped listening to that one because he’s been saying that since 2022.  

Recession should push 10 year lower and MBs higher and be good for interest rates, unless we go thermo nuclear in the bond market with active fuxjery feom all parts of the globe. Which, is obviously on the table right now. 
i tend to think that won’t happen but I’m just a wild eyed optimist!  

Posted
8 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Bout landing where I thought. You wanna take odds on Texas vs Kentucky?

Don’t call it a comeback!  Reprice for the better- now down “only” 23 on the day. 
texas 2/3 over Kentucky. 

Posted
On 4/10/2025 at 6:02 PM, jimmyjazz said:

Up 12%.  Doesn't surprise me, our last appraisal dropped 31% in one year, which seemed absurd.

Up 11%.  Makes sense when you think about how sales prices are still down in the metro.  /s

Posted
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year down .09 but basically just getting back to Thursdays levels 

Will take it! 
MBS up 33 right now. If we stay there should close the day below 7 after that ugliness was brought back into our life. 

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