All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[mchookem 15576]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Good luck. Anecdotally I think it has cooled off some.  You might only compete with 10 offers instead of 30, and might only have to pay 50k over instead of 100k.  Good luck!  I've actually had 3 people get under contract in the last week and a half in the greater Austin area- it can be done!

uh we're selling and blowing town, not buying 😄

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

25 minutes ago, mchookem said:

uh we're selling and blowing town, not buying 😄

I knew you were selling- thought you were also buying around town as well.  If you are moving to a lower cost area congrats on colleting your bag!  If you aren't then, well, may the force be with you on buying wherever you are headed...

[mchookem 15576]

yeah, we couldn't afford anything remotely like what we have now in Austin...we're cashing out. Denver suburbs are also hot but don't seem quite as insane...we should be in a good position if the numbers shake out as planned! 😊

 

[closetohumping 17303]

12 hours ago, mchookem said:

yeah, we couldn't afford anything remotely like what we have now in Austin...we're cashing out. Denver suburbs are also hot but don't seem quite as insane...we should be in a good position if the numbers shake out as planned! 😊

 

Congrats!  Love denver.  Which suburb? Denver used to be more expensive than Austin 

[CooterBrown 17764]

Is your house the one on Treadwell that just listed? If so, you’ll get multiple offers in a day or two. Sit on them for a week. Don’t give any concessions and after a week of letting the buyers stress, have everyone submit final and best offers by 5pm the next day.

[tokamak 6324]

This thread when a surlyite buys (especially first time):

Spoiler

Oh, you dear, sweet thing. My heart breaks for you. Stay strong, we'll get through this together. My children will be praying for your soul three times a day.

This thread when a surlyite sells:

Spoiler

Fuck them buyers. Inspection waiver, a sack full of loose diamonds, and prima nocta with the buyer's wife after closing at minimum or walk.

 

[Neonmoon 38126]

I feel like this has become a thing

MBS falls 50 points = reprice for the worse

MBS gains 100 points = (crickets)

 

[UTPhil2006 3775]

39 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I feel like this has become a thing

MBS falls 50 points = reprice for the worse

MBS gains 100 points = (crickets)

 

Yup.  

[UTPhil2006 3775]

2 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Is your house the one on Treadwell that just listed? If so, you’ll get multiple offers in a day or two. Sit on them for a week. Don’t give any concessions and after a week of letting the buyers stress, have everyone submit final and best offers by 5pm the next day.

It's not that one.  We're going live with hers on Saturday.

[Gil Bang 25690]

anybody selling in this market: make sure that the buyer's pre-approval is RECENT.  Somebody that qualified at 4.5% interest may not qualify at 5%.

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I feel like this has become a thing

MBS falls 50 points = reprice for the worse

MBS gains 100 points = (crickets)

 

That's funny, right?  

I guess the only good thing is my emails haven't been inundated with repricing for the worse with this little dip back down.  Why bother when you didn't ever better rates after strong moves Monday and Tuesday.  Fun times.  

[Gil Bang 25690]

Fuck me.  I've got a listing appointment tomorrow.  A referral from a previous client. Subject property is about 30 miles north of me.  Seller has been using it as a rental, seller lives with her elderly mother.  She wants to sell this older home, buy something newer that she would like to live in when mom dies and she and her brother inherit mom's house. Neither can afford to buy each other out, so Mom's house will be sold, brother and my client split the proceeds, my client moves into her newer rental.

Looks great for me, right?  I get to list one house, and represent the woman on the purchase of another house (1031 exchange).  Here's the rub...I spoke to this woman, and she's crazy as a shithouse rat, and surrounded in drama.  It takes 20 minutes to have a 30 second conversation.  And...she doesn't do email.  Doesn't have an email address, and won't consider getting one.  

In this day and age, I'm going to have to do two fucking paper transactions, with wet signatures, with a crazy lady 30 miles away.

Fuck me. 

But, I need the business.  This market has sucked for me, and if things don't pick up, I'm going to have my worst earnings year of the last 5.  

[UTPhil2006 3775]

I’m laughing with you not at you. But you’re right business is business right now. 

[UTPhil2006 3775]

Be curious what Barry said today @Wulaw Horn I wanna see if it lines up with what we’re hearing 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

Above long term falling lines. Room to get better for MBS. 
predicting peak inflation at September report and getting better from there. 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

Also told us to lock at 10:36 today. They probably jumped the gun a hair. Only got a couple reprice for worse. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Only got a couple reprice for worse.

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

27 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Didn’t say it was unnecessary just jumped the gun. Tried to rally and then, yeah, not good. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

If your house wasn’t expected to be finished until November. Would you lock in a 6% right now?

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If your house wasn’t expected to be finished until November. Would you lock in a 6% right now?

Sure. Set the floor. Then if things are better 60/45 days out have your broker send you to a different lender or bail yourself and find a different lender. It always makes sense to set a floor imo, as a customer. 

[jimmyjazz 45214]

12 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Sure. Set the floor. Then if things are better 60/45 days out have your broker send you to a different lender or bail yourself and find a different lender. It always makes sense to set a floor imo, as a customer. 

I've never locked on a build -- is that the way it works?  The rate gets padded the longer the lock?  Makes sense, I just never thought about it.

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I've never locked on a build -- is that the way it works?  The rate gets padded the longer the lock?  Makes sense, I just never thought about it.

Yes. Yes it does.  The longer you lock for the more expensive the money for obvious reasons. 

[TKthunder2 4959]

You guys do Home Equity Loans or just mortgages?

Doing a full add on renovation and will need about $200k before it’s all through, and I have plenty of equity.

Mortgage is 2.75% so I don’t think I’ll be doing a cash out refi unless it’s a last resort.

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

19 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

You guys do Home Equity Loans or just mortgages?

Doing a full add on renovation and will need about $200k before it’s all through, and I have plenty of equity.

Mortgage is 2.75% so I don’t think I’ll be doing a cash out refi unless it’s a last resort.

Ufcu. Heloc. 
If for some reason that doesn’t work we could do a home equity for 3.75% or so on an arm and that wouldn’t be awful, but if you ca. get 200k in a heloc from UFCU that’s your best bet. 

Edited April 30, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Hefeweizen 5239]

Serial question:

I'm closing in 3 weeks and will be sitting on cash but I also think the RE market where I'm buying is slowly cooling off.  What does the Surly real estate contingent think of renting for 6 months while waiting?  Or do you jump on something when it pops up and then just refinance a year or two down the road when rates moderate?  I think we're in a tightening cycle for at  least 12 months, right?  I plan to put between 50 and 65 percent down on the purchase but it'll still be a jumbo.  

[UT_OB1 2197]

8 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Serial question:

I'm closing in 3 weeks and will be sitting on cash but I also think the RE market where I'm buying is slowly cooling off.  What does the Surly real estate contingent think of renting for 6 months while waiting?  Or do you jump on something when it pops up and then just refinance a year or two down the road when rates moderate?  I think we're in a tightening cycle for at  least 12 months, right?  I plan to put between 50 and 65 percent down on the purchase but it'll still be a jumbo.  

You’re talking about the place you’re going to live?  Get what you want when it is available. Unless it is just going to blow your budget, rate doesn’t make the list to consider.  It’s the place you’re going to live, not your retirement investment portfolio. If you see your perfect home, don’t pass it up just to try to squeeze an extra .5% out of the rate in 6 months. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Never worry about rates. Get the house you want and start building equity. When rates fall, refinance. Waiting just means burning money 

[closetohumping 17303]

17 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

You’re talking about the place you’re going to live?  Get what you want when it is available. Unless it is just going to blow your budget, rate doesn’t make the list to consider.  It’s the place you’re going to live, not your retirement investment portfolio. If you see your perfect home, don’t pass it up just to try to squeeze an extra .5% out of the rate in 6 months. 

This.  6 months of rent is likely 15k of money that only buys you time.  Cooling off period means homes won’t appreciate as rapidly.  I don’t think prices drop.    I am not a real estate agent and I did not stay at a holiday inn express

[closetohumping 17303]

32 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Serial question:

I'm closing in 3 weeks and will be sitting on cash but I also think the RE market where I'm buying is slowly cooling off.  What does the Surly real estate contingent think of renting for 6 months while waiting?  Or do you jump on something when it pops up and then just refinance a year or two down the road when rates moderate?  I think we're in a tightening cycle for at  least 12 months, right?  I plan to put between 50 and 65 percent down on the purchase but it'll still be a jumbo.  

Also 5-6% seems high now but historically I’m not sure that’s the case

[Hefeweizen 5239]

13 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Also 5-6% seems high now but historically I’m not sure that’s the case

My first purchase was at 6 percent back around 2001.  So I think that is somewhat high but as the previous posters said it’s probably dumb to base a purchase on rates.  
 

Thanks surly.  My marriage thanks you too because my wife ain’t gonna be denied when she finds the right house.  

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

On 4/28/2022 at 2:34 PM, Gil Bang said:

But, I need the business.  This market has sucked for me, and if things don't pick up, I'm going to have my worst earnings year of the last 5.  

Why has it been bad? I would have assumed it would have been the best...what's making it bad?

[hornian 5168]

8 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

You guys do Home Equity Loans or just mortgages?

Doing a full add on renovation and will need about $200k before it’s all through, and I have plenty of equity.

Mortgage is 2.75% so I don’t think I’ll be doing a cash out refi unless it’s a last resort.

Look at Frost. I have a HELOC through them. Knowing roughly what you paid and roughly what your home is valued at, you'll be golden. The only hiccup when I did mine last December - the house appraised for TOO much and if I took out the most amount of HELOC I could I would have had to pay for title insurance. I asked what's the most I can get without title insurance. The answer was $500K. So that's what I have now, and I am only using a small portion of it for the remodel. 

Edit to add: This put me in the Frost Private Bank. too, which is nice.

Edited April 30, 2022 by hornian

[Pato del Muerto 52120]

So just recently I found that this is a thing, based on neighbors’ experiences. People are trolling garage sales to ask the home owners if they are doing it in advance of selling their home, and trying to make an unsolicited offer on their house. 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So just recently I found that this is a thing, based on neighbors’ experiences. People are trolling garage sales to ask the home owners if they are doing it in advance of selling their home, and trying to make an unsolicited offer on their house. 

Know some realtors that do that looking for listings. First time I heard it I thought, genius. 

[closetohumping 17303]

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

My first purchase was at 6 percent back around 2001.  So I think that is somewhat high but as the previous posters said it’s probably dumb to base a purchase on rates.  
 

Thanks surly.  My marriage thanks you too because my wife ain’t gonna be denied when she finds the right house.  

Yep. But as someone who bought pretty low interest rate definitely bothered me when I’ve been looking.   But now, we good. 

[Gil Bang 25690]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Why has it been bad? I would have assumed it would have been the best...what's making it bad?

not enough inventory.  Too many buyers, not enough sellers. 

Multiple offers on every house.  If you're repping a buyer, plan on showing dozens of homes, and writing dozens of offers, and not getting them accepted. 

[Esque 135]

This market is just silly.  Here are some metrics for a small town home development (about 125 homes) we have been keeping an eye on.  These are all very vanilla, down the fairway homes from Darling Homes built in either 2013 or 2017.  So they are newer (relatively speaking) and are all 2,500 sq. ft., 3/2.5 with a study.

 

[Muny_Tex 285]

not enough inventory.  Too many buyers, not enough sellers. 
Multiple offers on every house.  If you're repping a buyer, plan on showing dozens of homes, and writing dozens of offers, and not getting them accepted. 

I would imagine this is an issue for agents in majority of hot markets/key metros.

I’d also guess that the surge in cash deals, institutions, and savvy investors is frequently by-passing buyers agents altogether to sweeten deal for Sellers.

If this trend continues, do you foresee any changes to the comp/commission structure to try and adjust to the new paradigm?

You obviously can’t work for free, but it’s hard to see buyers agreeing to up-front fees and/or additional costs at closing. But something’s gotta give?

[Neonmoon 38126]

1 hour ago, Muny_Tex said:

I would imagine this is an issue for agents in majority of hot markets/key metros everyone in the real estate and lending industry 

Hard to make money on real estate if there ain’t no real estate 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

31 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Hard to make money on real estate if there ain’t no real estate 

Yep. Pimping ain’t easy as the man says. 

[Gatorubet 29797]

7 hours ago, hornian said:

Look at Frost. I have a HELOC through them. Knowing roughly what you paid and roughly what your home is valued at, you'll be golden. The only hiccup when I did mine last December - the house appraised for TOO much and if I took out the most amount of HELOC I could I would have had to pay for title insurance. I asked what's the most I can get without title insurance. The answer was $500K. So that's what I have now, and I am only using a small portion of it for the remodel. 

Edit to add: This put me in the Frost Private Bank. too, which is nice.

Maybe I should post this on Surly..?

[bluto 4829]

Any experts wanna dig into this and shoot it down/take heed?

 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

Any experts wanna dig into this and shoot it down/take heed?

 

Nope.  Not going to be a problem in residential. We have a fundamental problem with lack of supply as has been exacerbated over the last 14 or 15 years. 
we have, since the last collapse, essentially been making loans more or less only to people who should have a loan. 
we are at the lowest delinquencies in forever. 
Equity is at an all time high. 
That is fake news. 
 

is Commercial real estate fucked?  Maybe. 

Edited May 2, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[Neonmoon 38126]

I can’t speak to his prediction on the commercial property market crashing. Covid kind of changed the game in that arena. Probably fucked. 

His predicts there is another residential bubble because all the cash buyers in the past 2 years we’re not cash buyers, but got the cash by getting HELOCS and home equity loans on existing inflated residential assets. So when the Fed Funds rate keeps going up, those adjustable rates will go up, and those people will have to sell their investment properties, creating too much supply, decreasing property values, and crashing the market. Do I have that right?

Correlation doesn’t equal causation. He does a lot of that in the article. He assumes all the equity loans were used to buy real estate without evidence. He also ignores the current very large supply issue we have right now. 

So let’s assume he’s right, and investment homes will start being shed. Wouldn’t that be help the supply issue? Yes, it would. 

[Incredulity 11204]

First comment is perfect 

Quote

Proof the housing market is about to collapse: I bought a house 2 months ago and every major financial decision I’ve ever made turns to shit.

There was a lot of chatter about a pending commercial RE bomb right after ‘08. 
 

No doubt the pandemic/work from home has lit a fuse on urban core commercial RE.  Who fucking knows if its a fizzle or explosion.

[closetohumping 17303]

4 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

First comment is perfect 

There was a lot of chatter about a pending commercial RE bomb right after ‘08. 
 

No doubt the pandemic/work from home has lit a fuse on urban core commercial RE.  Who fucking knows if its a fizzle or explosion.

I actually think work from office will make a comeback at some point.  These kids are driving us crazy.

[Incredulity 11204]

1 minute ago, closetohumping said:

I actually think work from office will make a comeback at some point.  These kids are driving us crazy.

Over time I agree.  Most the people I deal with at work and know personally  who are still working from home are pretty adamant they won’t ever go back. 

[CooterBrown 17764]

Over time I agree.  Most the people I deal with at work and know personally  who are still working from home are pretty adamant they won’t ever go back. 

I talked to one of our HR recruiters and since we went back to the office twice a week on April 1, we’ve had 800% more retirement submittals this month than our normal monthly average. Basically, no one who’s eligible to retire is staying on if they have to go back to the office.

Our IT department also had to ask for a waiver in the back-to-the-office policy because no one will even accept an interview unless it’s full time WFH.

[Pato del Muerto 52120]

37 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

First comment is perfect 

There was a lot of chatter about a pending commercial RE bomb right after ‘08. 
 

No doubt the pandemic/work from home has lit a fuse on urban core commercial RE.  Who fucking knows if its a fizzle or explosion.

If the WFH increase is here to stay, that should allow the workforce to spread out. Hopefully that moves some demand to where there is more supply, balance things out a little. 

[bluto 4829]

Generally agree with the premise of residential being pretty solid, especially sun belt and the insane number of fixed rate mortgages locked in the last 3-4 yrs. 

commercial side, I don’t know the mechanisms of CMBS and all the unwinding he alludes to. I also don’t know how much shit retail got flushed out by covid/how much is still looming. Office is the only other sector I see being potential Oh shit, as discussed above.