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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
in Business and Markets

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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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47 basis point improvement.  We looked into the abyss yesterday (and did have a bad day- but much better than how it was trending) and shook it off.  Rallied today.  We busted above resistance that had slapped us down 4 or 5 times.  If we could get to the 50 day moving average (just broke above 25 day moving average) that would be a good improvement.  

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3275

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Most BLM and National Forest land is accessible to anyone.  Not sure what you're referring to.
The "public" land in northwest Florida is used by the Eglin AFB, Duke Field and HF. Only a sliver is open to the public, something like 125K square miles is public but not really.
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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7630

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14 hours ago, CooterBrown said:


We have some “public land” in Austin, the Balcones Canyonlands Preserve, that is pretty closed off to the public to protect the endangered, invasive golden cheeked warbler and black capped vireo.

Texas has almost no public lands.  But most of the public lands in CO and the west are BLM or National Forest.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7630

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26 minutes ago, Mother mopar said:
16 hours ago, Chewbacca said:
Most BLM and National Forest land is accessible to anyone.  Not sure what you're referring to.

The "public" land in northwest Florida is used by the Eglin AFB, Duke Field and HF. Only a sliver is open to the public, something like 125K square miles is public but not really.

Well, yeah, you're not going to be able to access an air force base.

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5232

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Well we’re officially homeless now.  Closed today with no issues at all and packing the stuff up for the next week.  The 78746 market is fucking bananas.  Seriously.  15 to 20 percent over asking?  That’s crazy talk.
 

The best news of the day was when I talked to the mortgage guy in Cali and he said the market is softening quickly there.  No more multiple offers and stuff sitting 30 plus days.  
 

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17302

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32 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

Well we’re officially homeless now.  Closed today with no issues at all and packing the stuff up for the next week.  The 78746 market is fucking bananas.  Seriously.  15 to 20 percent over asking?  That’s crazy talk.
 

The best news of the day was when I talked to the mortgage guy in Cali and he said the market is softening quickly there.  No more multiple offers and stuff sitting 30 plus days.  
 

Are you coming out here?  Which location?  Welcome, if so. 

 

Everything in my hood looks like it's going over ask but I haven't combed the data.  My realtor peeps in Dallas and Seattle say there's a slight slow down, meaning 3 offers instead of 13 for a property.

Edited by closetohumping
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CooterBrown

CooterBrown 17762

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Texas has almost no public lands.  But most of the public lands in CO and the west are BLM or National Forest.

I had some friends that moved down here from upstate NY and they were shocked to find out there’s no public land. The husband just about stroked out when he realized he’d have to pay to go hunting instead of just driving up in a US Forest.
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Skipper

Skipper 5969

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57 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

My realtor peeps in Dallas and Seattle say there's a slight slow down, meaning 3 offers instead of 13 for a property.

I finally listed my old rental late Thurs night in Dallas and it's been a bust so far. Only a handful of showings + 4 people showed at open house Sunday.  No offers yet.  I listed with a friend for a flat fee but offering 3% so don't think I'm being shut out by realtors (although I didn't hire any the neighborhood people and considered 1 so that might not be helping).  I listed on the high end of market but not unreasonable based on comps (on the basis that I don't need to sell and will just rent it out again if I don't get the right offer).  But pretty surprised.  One other house in my area had an open house and I went there to scout and chatted with the realtor.  It was nice, bigger and priced accordingly so wasn't really a direct comp to my property and told me they had just gotten one offer over list but market is lot different than it was a month ago when she would have already had multiple offers by then.  Kind of a bummer.  And makes me hate my old tenants even more for leaving it in such shitty state (and a few days late at that) that it took me too long to get repairs done.

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mchookem

mchookem 15576

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6 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I finally listed my old rental late Thurs night in Dallas and it's been a bust so far. Only a handful of showings + 4 people showed at open house Sunday.  No offers yet.  I listed with a friend for a flat fee but offering 3% so don't think I'm being shut out by realtors (although I didn't hire any the neighborhood people and considered 1 so that might not be helping).  I listed on the high end of market but not unreasonable based on comps (on the basis that I don't need to sell and will just rent it out again if I don't get the right offer).  But pretty surprised.  One other house in my area had an open house and I went there to scout and chatted with the realtor.  It was nice, bigger and priced accordingly so wasn't really a direct comp to my property and told me they had just gotten one offer over list but market is lot different than it was a month ago when she would have already had multiple offers by then.  Kind of a bummer.  And makes me hate my old tenants even more for leaving it in such shitty state (and a few days late at that) that it took me too long to get repairs done.

similar, though it's been a month for us...we listed far above what we even thought a year ago, but well in line with comps. re-thinking our strategy now 🤔🤨

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29796

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On 5/9/2022 at 11:39 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

TL/DR- Pay most attention to MBS, next most attention to 10 year treasury, good day for stock market typically make interest rates worse- bad days for the stock market typically make them better and when the world seems like it's burning (non inflation wise) that's when you typically see your mortgage guy smiling. 

 

On 5/9/2022 at 11:57 AM, Wulaw Horn said:

 TL/DR- buy now instead of later if you think prices are going up- don't worry about interest rates b/c you can refinance in the future- arms are good near an interest rate market top and bad at a bottom- pay attention to your time horizon for both the home and the loan. 

Just great fucking info Wulaw, and I’m sure it will be of aid to lots of Surly assholes.    Thanks, and kudos!

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We are seeing more appraisals come in low. Signs of cooling. 

I’ve hit number or higher on my last 13 out of 15. Have one that came in low bc the neighborhood is geographically small and hasn’t seen much recent activity and the other one bc the place was a piece of shit. Advised one client to buy and the other client to walk bc of the reasons behind the appraisals coming in low being the difference. 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5232

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2 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Are you coming out here?  Which location?  Welcome, if so. 

 

Everything in my hood looks like it's going over ask but I haven't combed the data.  My realtor peeps in Dallas and Seattle say there's a slight slow down, meaning 3 offers instead of 13 for a property.

93950.  Monterey Bay peninsula.  Not a hot market except when COVID hit and the techies from SF Bay area decided that was a cool place to work remotely.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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4 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

93950.  Monterey Bay peninsula.  Not a hot market except when COVID hit and the techies from SF Bay area decided that was a cool place to work remotely.

Monterey Bay isn’t hot?  I grew up in the Bay Area and that’s where summer camp was. Just fucking beautiful. Can’t believe that place isn’t massively expensive. Just too far out?

I was a kid (11) when we left so my perception might be messed up. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38126

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45 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’ve hit number or higher on my last 13 out of 15. Have one that came in low bc the neighborhood is geographically small and hasn’t seen much recent activity and the other one bc the place was a piece of shit. Advised one client to buy and the other client to walk bc of the reasons behind the appraisals coming in low being the difference. 

13 out of 15? I hope your betting ponies on the side

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

13 out of 15? I hope your betting ponies on the side

Just not as much run up in houston as elsewhere. We are as on fire as I’ve ever seen a market, but within parameters that make sense. Don’t have lots of offers going 15 or 20% over so not as much appraisal trouble. 

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milkman

milkman 428

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I'm in Centex and the market has cooled off a little. We listed the house pretty high for the neighborhood but thought that it was a reasonable asking price. Put my house on the market on a Friday and had 5 showings over the weekend. We called for offers on Monday by 5pm and received two offers, both cash. I thought we would have had twice the showings and offers but I think interest rates have people looking in lesser expensive homes at this point.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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17 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Interest rates have definitely changed things and tightened up. Also people are waiting to see what interest rates are going to do (ie think they may go back down) so it’s delaying decisions. 

I know this is true but it’s so bizarre to me. If interest rates go up you will be happy you bought now. If interest rates trade sideways then it doesn’t matter. If interest rates go down you refinance. It’s just odd consumer behavior imo.  

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closetohumping

closetohumping 17302

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12 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just not as much run up in houston as elsewhere. We are as on fire as I’ve ever seen a market, but within parameters that make sense. Don’t have lots of offers going 15 or 20% over so not as much appraisal trouble. 

IF you're willing to ignore the weather, to me, Houston has the best value of any major city.

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3774

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53 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

We thinking rates stay flat at 5% for now before going up into 6s over the summer?

Or do we think rates will fall back into 4s over the summer?

I would *hope* they hover at or around 5 so it doesn't stifle the buying summer season.  If it doesn't we could be in for more trouble til the end of the year

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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42 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

IF you're willing to ignore the weather, to me, Houston has the best value of any major city.

I love everything about Houston except for the weather/physical geography. The weather is really hard to get over and becomes harder by the day as I get older, and it’s just ugly as fuck around here.  I love the culture, the people, the opportunities, the economy, the grift and politics are on an acceptable level, the food and maybe most of all the living costs. It’s perfect other than being an ugly ass swamp located in the devils asshole. 

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Storm the Field

Storm the Field 5256

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1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I love everything about Houston except for the weather/physical geography. The weather is really hard to get over and becomes harder by the day as I get older, and it’s just ugly as fuck around here.  I love the culture, the people, the opportunities, the economy, the grift and politics are on an acceptable level, the food and maybe most of all the living costs. It’s perfect other than being an ugly ass swamp located in the devils asshole. 

Bingo. Houston's two biggest handicaps are the gross weather (May-October) and the almost complete lack of outdoor attractions.

There's not a hill to climb or river or lake to enjoy. If you want to go for a run, ride a bike or walk your dogs, you get to do so in your own neighborhood or on a trail that runs alongside one or more muddy disgusting "bayous" that are really just massive drainage ditches. That's assuming you don't mind trudging through 98 degrees with 100% humidity. 

When people come to town and ask about stuff to do, it's "here's a list of 9000 different places you can eat and drink, some museums to check out, or you can go to a baseball game. If you want to do something outdoorsy, you'll need to leave town." 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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4 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Hey uh who let the houston chamber of commerce in?

 

 

no lakes in Houston but you’re a short drive to Conroe or Galveston right?

 

Yes. Galveston was correctly nicknamed the gulf of Yoo Hoo by my brother. Lake Conroe is nice. I lived there for 4 years. Mom and dad another 7 after I graduated high school. It’s a great place to live. Good schools.  Now has restaurants and grocery stores less than 30 Minutes away. All the lake fun and plenty of golf. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Broker, smaller shops are where things are headed. Basically similar to about 10 years ago 

Was talking to a guy yesterday that was entering the business. Giving him a low down on how it works, comp structures, different kind of set ups as far as direct lenders, brokers, correspondent lenders, etc.  I don't think I'd want to be running a branch at a direct operation right now.  No thank you.  

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