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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
in Business and Markets

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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Luckily haven't personally been impacted yet but it's getting ugly out there.

Usually not completely caught off guard by the 'who' when it comes to layoffs but even some good ones are getting caught up in the mess now.

Yep. That’s when you know it’s bad when they actually cut competent people that know their job and not just use last quarter to get rid of underperforming people. 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7629

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The Fed won’t admit it but they are trying to create a recession, because it’s the only way to get wage growth under control and get real estate supply higher. Both of those are needed to fix the wonky economic environment. 

They also need a recession to tamp down demand for consumer goods.  

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4633

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Luckily haven't personally been impacted yet but it's getting ugly out there.

Usually not completely caught off guard by the 'who' when it comes to layoffs but even some good ones are getting caught up in the mess now.

That’s the worst. I went thru 6 or 7 at one company as it slowly died. After the second, it’s no longer just fat trimming. 

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gurt

gurt 736

Posted
Posted
On 9/24/2022 at 9:56 AM, Neonmoon said:

It sucks for first time homebuyers. Although I’m super impressed with this generation trying to get a home. When I was 24, I could barely afford rent as most of my salary went to booze. This kids are like, I have 20K in savings. 

Yes, to expand on this thought, this is something I have been noticing as someone involved with UT students in a regular way.  The kids that are serious are serious in a way that my cohort (late aughts-early tens) were not.  I think the competitiveness of high schools and college admissions, combined with the economic situation they will be thrust into has caused them to really think about their future and plan out how they are going to be successful.  No more just going with the flow and figuring it out as you go.  

Of course this has created an environment where only the strong survive.  If you don't have everything figured out by the time you are 21 you are behind the 8 ball and might never get yourself to a point where you can own a home or have financial independence.  No more finding yourself in your 20s and still getting a decent paying career and buying a home in your 30s.  I think my generation was the last to be able to do that.

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bluto

bluto 4819

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gurt said:

Yes, to expand on this thought, this is something I have been noticing as someone involved with UT students in a regular way.  The kids that are serious are serious in a way that my cohort (late aughts-early tens) were not.  I think the competitiveness of high schools and college admissions, combined with the economic situation they will be thrust into has caused them to really think about their future and plan out how they are going to be successful.  No more just going with the flow and figuring it out as you go.  

Of course this has created an environment where only the strong survive.  If you don't have everything figured out by the time you are 21 you are behind the 8 ball and might never get yourself to a point where you can own a home or have financial independence.  No more finding yourself in your 20s and still getting a decent paying career and buying a home in your 30s.  I think my generation was the last to be able to do that.

Damn that’s dark and depressing, largely agree though. ‘Needing’ to enter the rat race in full sprint before late 20s… invest in Zoloft I suppose. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, gurt said:

Yes, to expand on this thought, this is something I have been noticing as someone involved with UT students in a regular way.  The kids that are serious are serious in a way that my cohort (late aughts-early tens) were not.  I think the competitiveness of high schools and college admissions, combined with the economic situation they will be thrust into has caused them to really think about their future and plan out how they are going to be successful.  No more just going with the flow and figuring it out as you go.  

Of course this has created an environment where only the strong survive.  If you don't have everything figured out by the time you are 21 you are behind the 8 ball and might never get yourself to a point where you can own a home or have financial independence.  No more finding yourself in your 20s and still getting a decent paying career and buying a home in your 30s.  I think my generation was the last to be able to do that.

All of this is true, but I'd say you have to figure it out by the time you are 17 as opposed to 21.  School is so fucking expensive right now, and if you don't go to the school that makes financial sense for you in light of what your career and earnings are going to be you are stuck behind the 8 ball. You make that decision at 17.  My daughter is 11 and yammering about wanting to go to UCLA. I'm like- that's 250k to do that- you aren't getting that from your mom and I (we are planning on 50k per kid, maybe as much as 100k total). So, if she goes to UCLA she will get out with 150k or 200k in debt.  Better not be an art history major sweetheart.  She's 6 years away from making that decision. It's really really really wild to think about.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted

Same as always- this doesn't mean this will be your loan. This isn't a guarantee to lend.  This is just what it is- the averages for mortgages on Friday.  We are down 77 basis points today- that's about 1/4 of a point worse than what you are looking at on this chart.  I'm going to go suck my thumb in the corner right now and cry.

30-YR. CONFORMING

6.511% +0.112

30-YR. JUMBO

6.204% +0.031

30-YR. FHA

6.226% +0.074

30-YR. VA

6.190% +0.105

30-YR. USDA

6.204% +0.072

15-YR. CONFORMING

5.585% +0.032

 

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Hefeweizen

Hefeweizen 5229

Posted
Posted
Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Except there isn’t much inventory at all. Rates are pushing buyers out of the market but the number of sellers is tiny and shrinking. 

Some people don’t have the luxury of picking when to sell.  The other thought I had is how many variable rate / ARM instruments are there still in the market?  Those are about to bite a giant shit sandwich.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

Some people don’t have the luxury of picking when to sell.  The other thought I had is how many variable rate / ARM instruments are there still in the market?  Those are about to bite a giant shit sandwich.

There’s shouldn’t be many close to expiring. Most took care of that the last couple years. 

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NotActuallyALonghorn

NotActuallyALonghorn 4962

Posted
Posted

There are still a lot of people who bought as much as they could possibly afford when prices were at their highest and interest rates were at their lowest. So unless they have suddenly started making a lot more, they are probably struggling to pay the note with inflation now. It won't take much to break that dam.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Me and @Wulaw Horn will be mowing lawns for the foreseeable future if you need to know where to find us 

I told my wife if she ever wanted to teach school now would be a good time for it.  They need teachers in the schools and, well, that insurance and shit isn't free and doesn't pay for itself.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45211

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I told my wife if she ever wanted to teach school now would be a good time for it.  They need teachers in the schools and, well, that insurance and shit isn't free and doesn't pay for itself.

My wife "teaches" private preschool.  She and I were having the "where do we go from here" talk the other night and I was shocked to find out that AISD substitute teachers are apparently making roughly as much (per day) as full-time teachers are.  That used to not be the case, and I'm not sure it isn't wishful thinking on her part, but still, if true, substitute teaching here we come, 'cause that's about a 40% raise for her.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My wife "teaches" private preschool.  She and I were having the "where do we go from here" talk the other night and I was shocked to find out that AISD substitute teachers are apparently making roughly as much (per day) as full-time teachers are.  That used to not be the case, and I'm not sure it isn't wishful thinking on her part, but still, if true, substitute teaching here we come, 'cause that's about a 40% raise for her.

That's not how it is in our ISD.  It's $85.00 per day for a college degreed person.  Way less than a normal teacher makes. 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45211

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That's not how it is in our ISD.  It's $85.00 per day for a college degreed person.  Way less than a normal teacher makes. 

Like I said, could be wishful thinking on her part, or some random breakroom chatter that she believed.

EDIT:  looked it up for AISD, max amount is $225/day, some of which she wouldn't qualify for (retired AISD, special ed, etc.).  It would probably be a net raise for her if she worked 20 days/month, but she'd surely not do that, because reasons.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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