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UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted

Someone asked for this upthread.  I was on vacation and then Thanksgiving holidays so it's been a minute.  As always- this is not an offer to lend.  This is not me saying this is what you'd get from us (many people do significantly better than this- some worse.  This is just the average of all deals locked in the biggest mortgage software companies yesterday.  Also, doesn't account for points paid...

 

30-YR. CONFORMING

6.524% -0.036

30-YR. JUMBO

6.482% -0.290

30-YR. FHA

6.511% +0.037

30-YR. VA

6.310% -0.157

30-YR. USDA

6.524% +0.099

15-YR. CONFORMING

5.850% +0.025
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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah yall's is like 1.09MM or close to it.

Also, another Fed briefing at 1230 CT today that could move markets depending on what Powell says.

My guys are saying carefully float, the inflation number is going to come in low on Thursday and we are going to have a good week overall in the market.  They've been saying this since Monday morning and we are down about 40 basis points right now.  I locked one (refinance) and am floating another one (sale for 12/28/22) after laying out the information and him saying float until Friday morning.

Starting to get a bit jittery, especially as the markets seem to get worse every time Powell speaks, so... not sure if I'm doing the right think with the one float out there right now. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38126

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5 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Jeez.  It was just something like $460K in 2019.  

Home Appreciation since 2019 is like 40%

18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My guys are saying carefully float, the inflation number is going to come in low on Thursday and we are going to have a good week overall in the market.  They've been saying this since Monday morning and we are down about 40 basis points right now.  I locked one (refinance) and am floating another one (sale for 12/28/22) after laying out the information and him saying float until Friday morning.

Starting to get a bit jittery, especially as the markets seem to get worse every time Powell speaks, so... not sure if I'm doing the right think with the one float out there right now. 

You locked a refi? Are you a magician?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Home Appreciation since 2019 is like 40%

You locked a refi? Are you a magician?

He needed 100k. He has a current Equity loan on his house so he can't get a 2nd lien.  he went from 18 years left to 30 so his interest rate going up from 3 to 6% and getting the extra 100k didn't move the needle much in payment.  In a year we will convert the Texas 50A 6 for 30 years probably back into a 15 year loan at around 4% and he won't be much worse off than he is today.  If it works out.  

I've actually done 3 refinances in the last 3 months.  It's not a real booming business but refinances are "only" down 86% YOY.  Last year I did 8 refinances in December.  Based upon the numbers that means I should be doing 1 this month, which is how it worked out.  Cast a wide enough net and you will run into someone who needs the money/service that it makes sense for.  Once you get past the psychological kick in the balls. 
 

As I tell everyone regardless of rate- you don't spend interest rate at the grocery store or the gas pump. You spend dollars and cents.  Focus on that in determining whether a deal makes sense for you today.  

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Mother mopar

Mother mopar 3275

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Met with builders this wknd at our property in East Tx. Found a builder we really like, who is also VA-approved and has done VA construction loan builds before too. Going to nail down house plans/drawings in the spring and then I'll be hitting the Surly Morgage Mafia up.

The plan is to build on top of this bluff which has phenomenal sunset views.7cdbb590ee0b56ca4571f7f22a5b5699.jpg

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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Job report comes out tomorrow and if that's bad (good for the market) my guys say that we have another 150 basis points to run before we get to our next resistence.  Could be seeing 5.5 here in a few days/week if we get just a little luck. Note- I don't mean 5.5 as the average mortgage price- but I mean good borrowers getting a rate like that from a mortgage broker who can survey the market and work for less than 250-300 basis points.  National average maybe down to 6.  

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bluto

bluto 4819

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16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Job report comes out tomorrow and if that's bad (good for the market) my guys say that we have another 150 basis points to run before we get to our next resistence.  Could be seeing 5.5 here in a few days/week if we get just a little luck. Note- I don't mean 5.5 as the average mortgage price- but I mean good borrowers getting a rate like that from a mortgage broker who can survey the market and work for less than 250-300 basis points.  National average maybe down to 6.  

You jinxed it… I think. But I’ll be honest, I don’t really know what’s good/bad these days

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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53 minutes ago, bluto said:

You jinxed it… I think. But I’ll be honest, I don’t really know what’s good/bad these days

I got what I wanted even if e wry one else in the industry is probably pissed…

Good jobs report today. Bad for the market. MBS opened down 75 basis points (meaning interest rates got about 2/10’s higher at that point than last time around. 
Why was I ok with that?  Because I locked my whole board Thursday afternoon (they all listened to me and got in a locked position), because we’ve had a pretty good month, and because it’s not good for the industry or consumers (in totality) to have rates just pogo stick around. I’m hoping for a nice orderly decent in rates back lower so we can get people out of their shot in the 7’s in an orderly basis,  not the ups and down of half a point or a point in a week like what was going on last time the markets got super riled. That leads to uncertainty. All markets want certainty. 
My guess is we get the 75 points we lost this morning back by the end of next week and a decent inflation report in mid December pushes us down to national average below 6 by end of the year. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Hell, with the volatility lately we might get 50 or 60 bps back by this afternoon.  I miss the good old days when + or - 15 seemed good or bad. 

Absolutely this. That was sort of the greater point I was trying to make about volatility in general. I too miss the days where you could be like “wow that crazy market today- moved 24 points!”  

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25683

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Posted

been a long drought, but it looks like I'm getting a nice listing in the next few days.

Probably worth 1.3 or so.  Oceanfront condo on the 6th floor, with spectacular views of the beach and harbor, and Catalina on a good day.  Nothing else like it in the area, and nothing else for sale in the building. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25683

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On 12/5/2022 at 8:21 PM, Gil Bang said:

been a long drought, but it looks like I'm getting a nice listing in the next few days.

Probably worth 1.3 or so.  Oceanfront condo on the 6th floor, with spectacular views of the beach and harbor, and Catalina on a good day.  Nothing else like it in the area, and nothing else for sale in the building. 

So the owner called and wants to go forward.  He asked me to fax him the listing agreement (he's in another state). Fax.  I told him that e-sign was really easy.  Nope.  Fax. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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On 12/7/2022 at 5:55 PM, Gil Bang said:

So the owner called and wants to go forward.  He asked me to fax him the listing agreement (he's in another state). Fax.  I told him that e-sign was really easy.  Nope.  Fax. 

Someone asked me the other day if they could fax me something. I told them as it was no longer 1998 that was a hard pass for me. Wasn’t a client, was someone wanting a favor. 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25683

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Someone asked me the other day if they could fax me something. I told them as it was no longer 1998 that was a hard pass for me. Wasn’t a client, was someone wanting a favor. 

Actually, I convinced this guy to try to e-sign the documents.  He called me and said "I'm sure I did it wrong because there is no way it can be that easy".

Narrator:  it was that easy

Edited by Gil Bang
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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3773

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On 12/7/2022 at 4:41 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Down another .105 today to 3.40. We can haz 3.3xx next?

Went back up to about 3.60 over the course of last week/yesterday but with the CPI numbers coming in it's down .14 to the mid 3.4's today so got most of it back.  The fed will announce tomorrow which is also important to rates, but the prevailing thought now is that it will be a .50 hike.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Went back up to about 3.60 over the course of last week/yesterday but with the CPI numbers coming in it's down .14 to the mid 3.4's today so got most of it back.  The fed will announce tomorrow which is also important to rates, but the prevailing thought now is that it will be a .50 hike.

At one time we were up 80 basis points in the MBS market but now we are merely up 40. 
beyond just the 50 basis point hike instead of the 75 Bp hike we will be watching mostly for what the big boss says and what the notes say. Everyone thinks it is going to be dovish and send rates down. 

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smoothlonghorn

smoothlonghorn 83

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Posted

It's been a while and since I know we're all at our computers based on how great of a day it's been, I've got another...

Has your experience/lenders allowed you to count the cost of Title Policy outside of the IPC rule (i.e., 3% + Owner's Title Policy on an O/O 5% down or 2% + OTP on an investment)? If so, what is that dollar amount you would anticipate utilizing? My current lender is utilizing the "Closing Disclosure Formulated Cost of Owners" which is about 25% of the total policy.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills...

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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59 minutes ago, smoothlonghorn said:

It's been a while and since I know we're all at our computers based on how great of a day it's been, I've got another...

Has your experience/lenders allowed you to count the cost of Title Policy outside of the IPC rule (i.e., 3% + Owner's Title Policy on an O/O 5% down or 2% + OTP on an investment)? If so, what is that dollar amount you would anticipate utilizing? My current lender is utilizing the "Closing Disclosure Formulated Cost of Owners" which is about 25% of the total policy.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills...

None of this has anything to do with mortgages and definitely isn’t English, right?  
Hope you are killing it man. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18919

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Posted
18 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Unanimously 50 bps 

Yeah, but I guess the market didn't like the notes or what Powell was saying. Immediately MBS went from flat to up 3 or 5 on the day to down 50.  We are down 42 right now.  Was sort of floating a couple deals in front of this hoping it would get better and we'd break through ceiling/resistence that we were up against after the great morning yesterday but no such luck.  

Basically back to where we started the week in the MBS market- while I was looking/hoping for a 100-150 movement our way this week.  Drats.  This is shocking that the market didn't give me what I wanted in 2022.  The entire rest of the year has been so awesome.  

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2564

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Posted
22 hours ago, smoothlonghorn said:

It's been a while and since I know we're all at our computers based on how great of a day it's been, I've got another...

Has your experience/lenders allowed you to count the cost of Title Policy outside of the IPC rule (i.e., 3% + Owner's Title Policy on an O/O 5% down or 2% + OTP on an investment)? If so, what is that dollar amount you would anticipate utilizing? My current lender is utilizing the "Closing Disclosure Formulated Cost of Owners" which is about 25% of the total policy.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills...

It’s been a while but every time we’ve shifted banks or regional offices and I’m dealing with a compliance team somewhat new to Texas loans we have to make clear that the owner’s title policy isn’t an IPC when paid by the seller.  
 

This is also a good reason to have a relationship with some at Black, Mann and Graham or Robertson-Anschutz so you can pull in a legal opinion.  

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3773

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56 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah, but I guess the market didn't like the notes or what Powell was saying. Immediately MBS went from flat to up 3 or 5 on the day to down 50.  We are down 42 right now.  Was sort of floating a couple deals in front of this hoping it would get better and we'd break through ceiling/resistence that we were up against after the great morning yesterday but no such luck.  

Basically back to where we started the week in the MBS market- while I was looking/hoping for a 100-150 movement our way this week.  Drats.  This is shocking that the market didn't give me what I wanted in 2022.  The entire rest of the year has been so awesome.  

Yep. Basically his press conference and their opinions weren’t good news and that target rate would need to go up etc so the market soured. 

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