All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Current numbers, preferably in terms of 30 year rates for conforming & jumbo?

6.50 exactly average 30 year mortgage conforming (which is now up to 720 more or less).

Jumbo 5.65% more or less. it should be noted that doesn't include points. I strongly suspect most Jumbo's come with at least a 50 bip origination fee and many with 100 bips.  So, that matters, obviously.  

If you shop hard and have the right kind of loan you might be able to get 3/8 or maybe 1/2 a point knocked off.  Maybe.  That would require short time period, good credit and larger than average loan. 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Wulaw Horn

[UTPhil2006 3773]

Slightly up on the day to end the year. Started the year at 1.51. Will end somewhere between 3.85-3.90 on the 10 year treasury. Brutal year all the way around but I gotta think going forward it should get better. 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

50 basis points off on MBS. That’s 1/8 of a point. Started the year awful. Ended it awful, not much good in between. 

I don’t believe I will ever look back fondly on 2022. 
Happy New Years.  

[UTPhil2006 3773]

Yeah 2022 will be left in the rear view. At least the second half of it. Good thing is I think we’re heading in the right direction, and it seems Real Estate is starting to pick up lately, especially with the younger crowd. About half our clients are under 28. I think they realize the window of buying a home without competition is closing as buying season approaches and a lot are moving on that aspect. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

9 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah 2022 will be left in the rear view. At least the second half of it. Good thing is I think we’re heading in the right direction, and it seems Real Estate is starting to pick up lately, especially with the younger crowd. About half our clients are under 28. I think they realize the window of buying a home without competition is closing as buying season approaches and a lot are moving on that aspect. 

I think rates will get better but inventory will keep the fuckery around. Here’s hoping for a normal year 

[drewlaws 126]

Yeah 2022 will be left in the rear view. At least the second half of it. Good thing is I think we’re heading in the right direction, and it seems Real Estate is starting to pick up lately, especially with the younger crowd. About half our clients are under 28. I think they realize the window of buying a home without competition is closing as buying season approaches and a lot are moving on that aspect. 

Very small sample size but half of the homes FS in my hood went pending in December after months of stale inventory. Most everything left are renovation projects.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the buying season this spring. We haven’t experienced one at the current rate levels yet. Will buyers come back in a meaningful way? If not, inventory will continue rising and maybe we see more downward price pressure.

[bluto 4819]

2 hours ago, drewlaws said:

Very small sample size but half of the homes FS in my hood went pending in December after months of stale inventory. Most everything left are renovation projects.

It will be interesting to see what happens in the buying season this spring. We haven’t experienced one at the current rate levels yet. Will buyers come back in a meaningful way? If not, inventory will continue rising and maybe we see more downward price pressure.

Noticed same thing in my area where tgiving time frame everything appealing went pending or sold. Flash sale in a weeks time 

[Trey3216 15308]

On 1/1/2023 at 8:17 AM, bluto said:

Noticed same thing in my area where tgiving time frame everything appealing went pending or sold. Flash sale in a weeks time 

It's that cotdamn BlackRock again!!!! 

[Neonmoon 38126]

[UTPhil2006 3773]

Solid start for the first work day of the year. 10 year down .14 so far today. 

[fluff 87]

Any thoughts on where to put some 1031 funds that would generate some cash flow in the Central Texas area? $1MM+

[UTPhil2006 3773]

2 hours ago, fluff said:

Any thoughts on where to put some 1031 funds that would generate some cash flow in the Central Texas area? $1MM+

Any particular part?  Just kind of depends where you wanna dip your toe in the water.  Fredericksburg AirBnB, or Lake Travis investment prop or AirBnB, or a Downtown (Zilker, Rainey, etc) AirBnB are all solid options in your price range.

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

First chart of 2023 (which is based upon Friday 12/30/2022- last day of the market and locking.  As always this is not an offer to lend.  This is a national average. This doesn't show points paid.  This is in my locking software so it's probably slightly sharper pricing because it's mostly brokers etc on this. We can do better. We do do better for people, maybe we can't even get you a loan, not a solicitation for business blah blah blah.  

30-YR. CONFORMING

6.518% -0.010

30-YR. JUMBO

6.707% +0.124

30-YR. FHA

6.418% +0.021

30-YR. VA

6.250% +0.011

30-YR. USDA

6.179% -0.308

15-YR. CONFORMING

5.772% -0.099

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

Mortgage backed security market is 14 points better today with about 19 minutes to go. If we close around there that should make the national average fall ever so slightly below 6.50- like 6.49 or something.  

My predictions for 30 year average on this chart for the year.

High- 6.72%

Low- 4.98%

End of Year- 5.25%

Feel free for anyone in the industry to chime in with their own (or anyone not in the industry).  Whoever is closest at the end of the year gets a free refinance on their 7.28% rate when they bought at the worst point in time of 2022! 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

And we end the day up 28 basis points in the MBS market.  1st day of the year is positive- that means it's going to be a great year, right?  
The first day of 2022 I believe we lost 100 basis points on the day and rates got 1/4 of a point worse (maybe a full 1/2 point) in the first 10 days of the year.  So, lets just hope this year is the inverse of that and that the good days keep piling up.  

[UTPhil2006 3773]

We don’t speak of 22 anymore. Good first day. Onward and upward. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Mortgage backed security market is 14 points better today with about 19 minutes to go. If we close around there that should make the national average fall ever so slightly below 6.50- like 6.49 or something.  

My predictions for 30 year average on this chart for the year.

High- 6.72%

Low- 4.98%

End of Year- 5.25%

Feel free for anyone in the industry to chime in with their own (or anyone not in the industry).  Whoever is closest at the end of the year gets a free refinance on their 7.28% rate when they bought at the worst point in time of 2022! 

High - 6.99

Low -  4.75

End of Year - 5.375

I agree with you mostly, just see more volatility in the swings because people be crazy 

[Dbeasy 14790]

High 6.75

Low 6.00

Close 6.25

[KYHorn 16720]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

High 6.75

Low 6.00

Close 6.25

 

[UTPhil2006 3773]

On 1/3/2023 at 9:07 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Solid start for the first work day of the year. 10 year down .14 so far today. 

Another .09 today so far. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

I just locked at 5.875 on a 30 year conforming with the opportunity to courtesy adjust one time lower. How did I do? Any input on a one month outlook? Buying in Alabama for those interested parties. 

Edited January 5, 2023 by Johnny Chimpo

[UTPhil2006 3773]

10 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

I just locked at 5.875 on a 30 year conforming with the opportunity to courtesy adjust one time lower. How did I do? Any input on a one month outlook? Buying in Alabama for those interested parties. 

Assuming excellent credit. Loan size? Points? Assuming 20% down as well. Either way all things considered that’s solid for today. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

13 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Assuming excellent credit. Loan size? Points? Assuming 20% down as well. Either way all things considered that’s solid for today. 

Yea, 760-800+ depending on the report. Loan size is 480k (goes a long way in Alabama compared to Denver which we are leaving, corporate relo.) 20% down. No points paid. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

Any thoughts on rolling equity from current home into new home and putting down greater than 20% and reducing the loan size, given todays higher rates. I know at 3% the thinking was you’ll be able to do better in the markets. At 6% after tax, does it change the math materially? I wasn’t planning to but it’s an option, and I am open to the collective surlythink opinions of our great unwashed masses here. 

[KYHorn 16720]

35 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Any thoughts on rolling equity from current home into new home and putting down greater than 20% and reducing the loan size, given todays higher rates. I know at 3% the thinking was you’ll be able to do better in the markets. At 6% after tax, does it change the math materially? I wasn’t planning to but it’s an option, and I am open to the collective surlythink opinions of our great unwashed masses here. 

Wouldn't you have to get a HELOC, which you'd presumably be paying higher interest on?

[Neonmoon 38126]

36 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Any thoughts on rolling equity from current home into new home and putting down greater than 20% and reducing the loan size, given todays higher rates. I know at 3% the thinking was you’ll be able to do better in the markets. At 6% after tax, does it change the math materially? I wasn’t planning to but it’s an option, and I am open to the collective surlythink opinions of our great unwashed masses here. 

Borrowing more at 3% made sense because it's cheap money. With rates at 6%, and the stock market down 19% in 2022, and possible down more this year, putting more of your money into a home isn't a bad idea. Homes are still appreciating higher than normal, so better to invest that money in real estate. Once rates go down and the stock market isn't crashing. Refinance that equity out of the home and put it in the stock market. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

57 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Wouldn't you have to get a HELOC, which you'd presumably be paying higher interest on?

Sorry, I am selling my current residence, to be clear. 

[KYHorn 16720]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Sorry, I am selling my current residence, to be clear. 

Got it. I was blinded by my current circumstances. 

In addition to neon's points, if cashflow is at all a consideration, it would help with that as well, while locking in that 6%+ return (compounding) on the down payment. 

On the other hand, I bet you can get a pretty penny to rent your old place out in Denver and pay someone to manage it. 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

Typically what I walk through with my borrowers is the idea of being intentional when you sell the house and buy a new one. 
what do I mean?  Well/ you might have had 250k in equity in your old hime- 14k in credit cards, a 22k car Loan and be behind on your kids college or your 401K. If you are, clean that shit up. 
ideally after your sale and purchase of the new place you should be debt free but for the house- have 6 months cash liquid for a rainy day, and have your kids education funded iF you are doing that and have your 401k where you want it to be. Once you’ve hit those metrics it’s all play money. Put the extra down if you want. Invest it if you want. Whatever. 
but reset financially so your new plan makes sense. 
 

and yes- you got a very good interest rate if you weren’t paying points or anything like that. National average today is like 6.5%. Getting a rate 5/8 below that is very very very (almost impossible) to do. You are correct in that having a large loan amount for that area you are buying undoubtedly helped you out. 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

Mortgage backed securities up 69 dude!  That’s up pretty close to 80 or 90 for the week. Finish the day hot and we will be back down to where we were going into Xmas before China getting rid of zero Covid and the 1.7T spending bill. 

[UTPhil2006 3773]

On 1/4/2023 at 1:40 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

Another .09 today so far. 

Another .13 so far. .30 for the week. Excellent start to the year 

[Chewbacca 7625]

On 1/5/2023 at 10:16 AM, Johnny Chimpo said:

Yea, 760-800+ depending on the report. Loan size is 480k (goes a long way in Alabama compared to Denver which we are leaving, corporate relo.) 20% down. No points paid. 

Oof.  Leaving Denver for Alabama?  No way I could even consider that move.

[Neonmoon 38126]

In the north, Huntsville is on the very last edge of the Appalachian Mountains chain. It’s not a bad little town. But yeah, Southern Alabama is scary 

[mchookem 15568]

so anybody know about real estate AND taxes? in Colorado?? lol

i have what i thought was a pretty simple question, but i can't seem to find a simple answer, either online or direct from a CPA...

we sold our home in Austin in June. we did end up with some capital gains.

we bought a home in Denver in August, establishing residence. 

do we have to pay Colorado capital gains taxes on the sale of our home in Texas?

[Neonmoon 38126]

34 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so anybody know about real estate AND taxes? in Colorado?? lol

i have what i thought was a pretty simple question, but i can't seem to find a simple answer, either online or direct from a CPA...

we sold our home in Austin in June. we did end up with some capital gains.

we bought a home in Denver in August, establishing residence. 

do we have to pay Colorado capital gains taxes on the sale of our home in Texas?

Consult a CPA

but my google says yes

The resident state (generally - sometimes it's the nonresident state) has a credit for some or all of the tax on the nonresident state's return to prevent double taxation..

 

 

[DalTxHornFan 3071]

47 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so anybody know about real estate AND taxes? in Colorado?? lol

i have what i thought was a pretty simple question, but i can't seem to find a simple answer, either online or direct from a CPA...

we sold our home in Austin in June. we did end up with some capital gains.

we bought a home in Denver in August, establishing residence. 

do we have to pay Colorado capital gains taxes on the sale of our home in Texas?

Muledick.  Fuck that.

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

Oof.  Leaving Denver for Alabama?  No way I could even consider that move.

I’m an oil man. I always knew I would be leaving Denver. 

[mchookem 15568]

1 hour ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Muledick.  Fuck that.

yeah, i mean...that seems shady, and not in a normal 'taxes suck but oh well, pay the piper' way. 

we were not residents of Colorado when we earned the cap gains. we didn't establish residency until two months later. 

we are consulting a CPA...but like i said, this is not getting explained sufficiently.

OR...i guess maybe it is and the answer is too shitty to be believable 😕 lol 

i mean...why would anybody that sells a home (in a state w/o state CG tax) re-establish residency in a new state (that has CG tax) before the next earnings year?? better to rent for the rest of that year i guess...we should have just lived in our friends' basement until now/January and not bought a new home so fast! expensive lesson learned! 😝

hindsight is 20/20, shame on us for not knowing this beforehand. i suppose the tradeoff is we got a great home at a great price, buying when we did.

but it seems like that little loophole would make January/February a pretty active RE season, at least for buyers, in states with cap gains taxes. weird that it doesn't. 

 

ETA to be clear, im only referring to state CG tax. fed we were braced for. 

Edited January 7, 2023 by mchookem

[Gil Bang 25681]

On 1/3/2023 at 8:37 AM, fluff said:

Any thoughts on where to put some 1031 funds that would generate some cash flow in the Central Texas area? $1MM+

I'd advise looking at a triple-net lease-back deal.  Like purchasing the dirt under an established fast food place, McD's, JITB, etc.   They can throw nice income. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

I live in a touristy town. Not a week goes by that I don't get a call from someone wanting to buy a second home or investment property. Each time, I get to listen to the person's dreams slowly die as I explain how high interest rates are for these properties, including needing to put down more than the minimum down payment just to get the loan priced. 

FML

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

10 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I live in a touristy town. Not a week goes by that I don't get a call from someone wanting to buy a second home or investment property. Each time, I get to listen to the person's dreams slowly die as I explain how high interest rates are for these properties, including needing to put down more than the minimum down payment just to get the loan priced. 

FML

I assume you know this and do this, but do you have discussions about their equity position in main houses and the like?  I’m working with a couple people right now with paid for 1sts that are cashing out to buy second homes. Because they can get in with zero out of pocket money plus the significantly lower interest rate. 

Also- what is your typical price point on that loan and do you have the ability to broker?  I can knock down 2nd homes for people all day long at like 5.5% but the catch is it has to be $1.00 more than max conforming loan. So- if someone is buying a 915k or more home I can price irrespective of the second home. In the right resort community that could be table stakes to buy a second home. 
 

even if you are at a direct lender most of them will let you broker for product but not price. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I assume you know this and do this, but do you have discussions about their equity position in main houses and the like?  I’m working with a couple people right now with paid for 1sts that are cashing out to buy second homes. Because they can get in with zero out of pocket money plus the significantly lower interest rate. 

Also- what is your typical price point on that loan and do you have the ability to broker?  I can knock down 2nd homes for people all day long at like 5.5% but the catch is it has to be $1.00 more than max conforming loan. So- if someone is buying a 915k or more home I can price irrespective of the second home. In the right resort community that could be table stakes to buy a second home. 
 

even if you are at a direct lender most of them will let you broker for product but not price. 

I’m also working with someone doing a cash out refi to buy a second home. That’s fine. Those work because of the money down. 

No, these aren’t jumbo price points. The dreamcrusher calls are “we have a primary home with a Mortage and we can afford a second home at 10% down, and we’re looking in the 300-600k range.” If someone has 70K to burn and wants a second/home investment property. The numbers don’t look great. 

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

If they have 10% down and want to buy a 700k second home they really must not have done their homework. 

[Catpfish 618]

18 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

If they have 10% down and want to buy a 700k second home they really must not have done their homework. 

This happens a whole lot more than you think.  I used to get at least a call a week from California people wanting to buy an investment home with 20% down (and this is when rates were lower).  They were absolutely dumbfounded when I told them the numbers don't come close to working out since the rents at the time would barely cover principal and interest...forget about taxes (and taxes were just beginning to take off) on investment properties), insurance, repairs, etc.  

I think people read something that says some area is the place to be and they just assume that the numbers will work.

 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Catpfish

[Incredulity 11197]

Cliffs:

people really are the worst

[RMac5 1547]

23 hours ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

If they have 10% down and want to buy a 700k second home they really must not have done their homework. 

What do you mean by this? I’m not buying a second home, and this doesn’t apply to me, just not sure what you are saying.

[Johnny Chimpo 478]

2 hours ago, RMac5 said:

What do you mean by this? I’m not buying a second home, and this doesn’t apply to me, just not sure what you are saying.

Typically the banks want 25%+ down for a second home, plus the payments are pretty steep if you only put 10% down. Will be tough to make any money on a cash flow basis. 
 

Catpfish covered it well. 

[Wulaw Horn 18919]

46 minutes ago, Johnny Chimpo said:

Typically the banks want 25%+ down for a second home, plus the payments are pretty steep if you only put 10% down. Will be tough to make any money on a cash flow basis. 
 

Catpfish covered it well. 

With the new pricing structure a 10% loan on a second is rough if you can even find it. 

Edited January 8, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[RMac5 1547]

That makes perfect sense, thanks for the follow up.

[UTPhil2006 3773]

On 1/6/2023 at 11:03 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Another .13 so far. .30 for the week. Excellent start to the year 

Another .05 today down to 3.51. Getting back to mid December lows. Keep stacking the small wins.