All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Gil Bang 25651]

So, my beach listing.  

I've got buyers that think they can buy the fucker with a verbal offer.   A lowball one at that.  "Call the seller, tell him we pay 1 million cash".

"Yeah, we need to do that in writing".

"No, no, we no waste time if he not accept". 

THAT'S NOT HOW THIS WORKS!!!

[Dbeasy 14783]

1 minute ago, Gil Bang said:

So, my beach listing.  

I've got buyers that think they can buy the fucker with a verbal offer.   A lowball one at that.  "Call the seller, tell him we pay 1 million cash".

"Yeah, we need to do that in writing".

"No, no, we no waste time if he not accept". 

THAT'S NOT HOW THIS WORKS!!!

Last year I had a dipshit do the same thing. His agent would call up every few days and verbally offer. Finally just told her off. 

[UTPhil2006 3768]

15 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

So, my beach listing.  

I've got buyers that think they can buy the fucker with a verbal offer.   A lowball one at that.  "Call the seller, tell him we pay 1 million cash".

"Yeah, we need to do that in writing".

"No, no, we no waste time if he not accept". 

THAT'S NOT HOW THIS WORKS!!!

Just send this back every time 

[UTPhil2006 3768]

Also don’t accept any offers on it until I win the Mega Millions tonight 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Not great Bob

 

[UTPhil2006 3768]

10 year up about .09 or so yesterday down about .06 today. Tomorrows CPI report the real difference maker 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Inventory is a bitch right now. Lots of buyers. No houses. 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Inventory is a bitch right now. Lots of buyers. No houses. 

Which is why the “housing gonna tank 20% crowd” is off imo. 
Cmon inflation. Report though. 

[jimmyjazz 45192]

13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Which is why the “housing gonna tank 20% crowd” is off imo. 
Cmon inflation. Report though. 

I think it's pretty close to down 20% in Austin.  That said, the peak was a skyrocket that went off last spring.  Absolutely insanity.

[LCHorn 2560]

22 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Not great Bob

 

I guess-their pricing has sucked since early 2021 for me, anyway.  Maybe they were trying to tell us something…
 

 

48 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I think it's pretty close to down 20% in Austin.  That said, the peak was a skyrocket that went off last spring.  Absolutely insanity.

Just to be clear, are you referring to transactions?  I think @Wulaw Hornwas referring to year over year value depreciation (but correct me if I’m wrong).  If we lost 20% on the value side realtors would be jumping off the downtown condos balconies.

Edited January 11, 2023 by LCHorn

[jimmyjazz 45192]

15 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Just to be clear, are you referring to transactions?  I think @Wulaw Hornwas referring to year over year value depreciation (but correct me if I’m wrong).  If we lost 20% on the value side realtors would be jumping off the downtown condos balconies.

Price, but not year over year . . . yet.  According to Austin Board of Realtors, here are the median selling prices (peak and current) in the City of Austin proper:

May 2022:  $667K

November 2022:  $530K (down 20.5% from May)

 

I expect we will start seeing significant year over year declines as we roll into the spring, because even though the curent month-to-month declines have slowed, we will soon see prices well below last year's prices on a YoY basis.  Right now we're just barely down year over year.  Unless prices spike soon, those numbers are going to start looking worse.

And again, I'm a homeowner.  I care about price.  I'm not a Realtor.  I don't look at the market statistics the way a Realtor might.

 

 

Edited January 11, 2023 by jimmyjazz

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

50 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I guess-their pricing has sucked since early 2021 for me, anyway.  Maybe they were trying to tell us something…
 

 

Just to be clear, are you referring to transactions?  I think @Wulaw Hornwas referring to year over year value depreciation (but correct me if I’m wrong).  If we lost 20% on the value side realtors would be jumping off the downtown condos balconies.

Yes you are right in what I was saying by value. And just to further make my point/ I’m talking about value as in the housing market in the country, not a specific neighborhood here or there. Macro trends. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Yikes 

 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Yikes 

 

Good. Fuck Em. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

But this feels about right 

 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

But this feels about right 

 

At least we are making up for it with a robust refinance market. Right?  Right?!?

[Neonmoon 38126]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

At least we are making up for it with a robust refinance market. Right?  Right?!?

[CooterBrown 17735]

I think it's pretty close to down 20% in Austin.  That said, the peak was a skyrocket that went off last spring.  Absolutely insanity.

Anecdotal example but a house by me was originally listed for 2.25M about 4 months ago and it sold for 2.09M a week ago. So 20% is about right.

[GottaB 588]

Anecdotal example but a house by me was originally listed for 2.25M about 4 months ago and it sold for 2.09M a week ago. So 20% is about right.

10% 20% Whatever.

[Neonmoon 38126]

CPI at 6.5%, core at 5.7% as expected 

good news 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Neonmoon

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

That should be good. That’s a little lower than the numbers Habib et al said they were expecting. 

[txduck87 975]

Anecdotal example but a house by me was originally listed for 2.25M about 4 months ago and it sold for 2.09M a week ago. So 20% is about right.

[Incredulity 11189]

[Neonmoon 38126]

51 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That should be good. That’s a little lower than the numbers Habib et al said they were expecting. 

I think the first negative month on month reading ( -0.1%) since May 2020 is very good. 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

10 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think the first negative month on month reading ( -0.1%) since May 2020 is very good. 

Market is treating it like a non-event. We are up 9 Bips for the day.  Wasn’t better than expectations so no movement. Which beats losing to expectations and world is on fire of course. 

[UTPhil2006 3768]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Market is treating it like a non-event. We are up 9 Bips for the day.  Wasn’t better than expectations so no movement. Which beats losing to expectations and world is on fire of course. 

Still early. 

[jimmyjazz 45192]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

CPI at 6.5%, core at 5.7% as expected 

good news 

You need to read the inflation thread.  It's littered with Nobel-winning economists, all who agree this is bad news.

[LCHorn 2560]

13 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Anecdotal example but a house by me was originally listed for 2.25M about 4 months ago and it sold for 2.09M a week ago. So 20% is about right.

I think what @jimmyjazzis getting is is “what is my house worth today.”  List prices vs final sale price on an individual house aren’t particularly illustrative. 
 

I was looking at the data to rebut Jimmy’s 20% drop figure yesterday and only got halfway there.  I do think that overstates things but he’s right, last spring it appears values were frothier than even I was aware.  Fwiw, I think TAMU’s housing index is a better source for analysis than Abor or wherever you (Jimmy) are pulling it.  Year over year appreciation based on 3rd quarter 2022 data is about 9%, which is still higher than the five year average of 2014-2019 before Covid disrupted things.  

[jimmyjazz 45192]

2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I think what @jimmyjazzis getting is is “what is my house worth today.”  List prices vs final sale price on an individual house aren’t particularly illustrative. 
 

I was looking at the data to rebut Jimmy’s 20% drop figure yesterday and only got halfway there.  I do think that overstates things but he’s right, last spring it appears values were frothier than even I was aware.  Fwiw, I think TAMU’s housing index is a better source for analysis than Abor or wherever you (Jimmy) are pulling it.  Year over year appreciation based on 3rd quarter 2022 data is about 9%, which is still higher than the five year average of 2014-2019 before Covid disrupted things.  

Definitely, I pay attention to whatever metrics assess Austin proper.  I don't know if TAMU breaks it down that fine.  "All real estate is local" -- ABOR is a number, I'm not sure if it's very accurate, but it's something.  (Median price dropping from $667K to $530K = 20.5% drop.  It doesn't necessarily mean all houses across all price points have seen that kind of drop, and I hope nobody thought I was saying that.)

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

28 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Definitely, I pay attention to whatever metrics assess Austin proper.  I don't know if TAMU breaks it down that fine.  "All real estate is local" -- ABOR is a number, I'm not sure if it's very accurate, but it's something.  (Median price dropping from $667K to $530K = 20.5% drop.  It doesn't necessarily mean all houses across all price points have seen that kind of drop, and I hope nobody thought I was saying that.)

Median house price is a shitty shitty metric imo.  I know you how you were using it and am not criticizing that or you, I just don't think it's all the illustrative of really anything worth knowing.  

[jimmyjazz 45192]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Median house price is a shitty shitty metric imo.  I know you how you were using it and am not criticizing that or you, I just don't think it's all the illustrative of really anything worth knowing.  

Shitty because you think the data should be broken down into selling price bands?

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

23 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Shitty because you think the data should be broken down into selling price bands?

Shitty because it isn’t instructive on what’s going on. Not large enough on the numbers and doesn’t tell us what was for sale, how long it’s on the market, what it’s doing relative to prior sales or expectations or the like. 

[jimmyjazz 45192]

14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Shitty because it isn’t instructive on what’s going on. Not large enough on the numbers and doesn’t tell us what was for sale, how long it’s on the market, what it’s doing relative to prior sales or expectations or the like. 

OK, so what metric do you support using when asserting that (for instance) "residential real estate prices have fallen 20%"?

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

46 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

OK, so what metric do you support using when asserting that (for instance) "residential real estate prices have fallen 20%"?

I would need to see that on some actual houses themselves, or similar to almost identical houses in the same neighborhood to feel comfortable saying something like that. 

[jimmyjazz 45192]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I would need to see that on some actual houses themselves, or similar to almost identical houses in the same neighborhood to feel comfortable saying something like that. 

OK, so things like Case-Shiller index mean nothing to you.  I'm sorry, but this seems like just another Realtor trying to obfuscate.

Price statistics have value, regardless of what you say.  Some more than others?  Sure.

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

12 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

OK, so things like Case-Shiller index mean nothing to you.  I'm sorry, but this seems like just another Realtor trying to obfuscate.

Price statistics have value, regardless of what you say.  Some more than others?  Sure.

No that’s not at all what I’m saying. I’m saying that anyone saying “my house went down 20% in value over X period of time and I know this because the median house price in Austin sent down 20% is a brain dead moron. YMMV. 
And you can talk all the shit you want about a realtor but a decent realtor or appraiser is going to be able to tell you a billion times more valuable shit than some macro austin median price point survey. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Shiller is what? Down 10% YoY?

[jimmyjazz 45192]

50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No that’s not at all what I’m saying. I’m saying that anyone saying “my house went down 20% in value over X period of time and I know this because the median house price in Austin sent down 20% is a brain dead moron. YMMV. 

Well, I never said anything of the sort, but you're apparently too emotional about the issue to actually discuss it rationally.

 

Quote

And you can talk all the shit you want about a realtor but a decent realtor or appraiser is going to be able to tell you a billion times more valuable shit than some macro austin median price point survey. 

I'm not "talking shit" about Realtors.  They have fundamentally different motivations than I do and I recognize that.  It appears plenty of Realtors don't.  I've been lambasted on this thread and had my motivations entirely misrepresented because those motivations are different, yet ironically, the thread isn't limited to those who sell or facilitate the sale of houses for a living.  Don't act like you haven't seen me called out for exactly zero good reasons.  Pardon  me for trying to be an informed homeowner.

If I wanted to know the exact depreciation of my house between May 2022 and now, I'd have to have had appraisals done in May 2022 and now.  I haven't.  I'm talking about general market trends.  (And, let's not overestimate the accuracy of those appraisals, either.)

[babysdaddy 2708]

Where are jumbo rates currently?  7 and 10 year ARMs.  Thanks

[Gil Bang 25651]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No that’s not at all what I’m saying. I’m saying that anyone saying “my house went down 20% in value over X period of time and I know this because the median house price in Austin sent down 20% is a brain dead moron. YMMV. 
And you can talk all the shit you want about a realtor but a decent realtor or appraiser is going to be able to tell you a billion times more valuable shit than some macro austin median price point survey. 

Assuming one can find a decent realtor.

 

 

Anyway, I like price/square foot as a barometer.   Take a given neighborhood, compare PSF over time, you'll get an idea.

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

4 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Assuming one can find a decent realtor.

 

 

Anyway, I like price/square foot as a barometer.   Take a given neighborhood, compare PSF over time, you'll get an idea.

Much better metric than median sales price

for an MSA. 

[LCHorn 2560]

2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

If I wanted to know the exact depreciation of my house between May 2022 and now, I'd have to have had appraisals done in May 2022 and now.  I haven't.  I'm talking about general market trends.  (And, let's not overestimate the accuracy of those appraisals, either.)

To be fair, you’d have to sell it if you want to know the exact depreciation.  I had appointments all day but was going to add earlier (in reference to your “what’s a better measure than median?” question) that I think there’s sample size distortions (which @Wulaw Horn mentioned already) and flaws in the data.  If you talk to agents, A LOT of the Austin purchase market in the last six months have been dominated by cash purchases.  I don’t know that you’ve quoted your data source but I don’t know how any of them would pick those up. 

[UTPhil2006 3768]

2 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

Where are jumbo rates currently?  7 and 10 year ARMs.  Thanks

Low 6’s on those arms based on the normal credit and down payment particulars.  
 

Also learned looking at this that Caliber/NewRez got out of the jumbo game at least temporarily 

[jimmyjazz 45192]

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

To be fair, you’d have to sell it if you want to know the exact depreciation.  I had appointments all day but was going to add earlier (in reference to your “what’s a better measure than median?” question) that I think there’s sample size distortions (which @Wulaw Horn mentioned already) and flaws in the data.  If you talk to agents, A LOT of the Austin purchase market in the last six months have been dominated by cash purchases.  I don’t know that you’ve quoted your data source but I don’t know how any of them would pick those up. 

I've quoted my data source multiple times -- Austin Board of Realtors.  Cash sales that fly under the radar might distort perceived values, for sure.  

Again, I am NOT trying to put forth the idea that a % change in median price speaks to the price change in every house in a market.  I'm not an idiot.  It's a metric.  It's what the public has to go on.  If you have a better metric to assess the market as a whole, I'd love to hear it.  We all get that broad metrics don't necessarily mean much on an individual property.

[LCHorn 2560]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

If you have a better metric to assess the market as a whole, I'd love to hear it.

I mentioned it upthread but will highlight it again-the TAMU data is what the former chief economist for the Austin CoC will cite if you hear him speak.*  Bear in mind there’s a big seasonality component involved, too.  

*fwiw, also what I use when I give presentations to agents.  

[jimmyjazz 45192]

5 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I mentioned it upthread but will highlight it again-the TAMU data is what the former chief economist for the Austin CoC will cite if you hear him speak.*  Bear in mind there’s a big seasonality component involved, too.  

*fwiw, also what I use when I give presentations to agents.  

. . . and I asked if the TAMU data includes metro breakdowns.  At least I think I did.  Moving thread.

Because I'm not necessarily all that more interested in statewide snapshots that don't reflect Austin proper, even if "Austin proper" analysis (ABOR) might miss some sales.  I mean, if there's a better reason to look at TAMU data for my house in west Austin, then I'm all ears.  I just feel like Realtors in general want to make things as fuzzy as possible to preserve their value.

Edited January 13, 2023 by jimmyjazz

[NoRagrets 1121]

22 hours ago, CooterBrown said:

Anecdotal example but a house by me was originally listed for 2.25M about 4 months ago and it sold for 2.09M a week ago. So 20% is about right.

Nice humble brag

[Gil Bang 25651]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

. . . and I asked if the TAMU data includes metro breakdowns.  At least I think I did.  Moving thread.

Because I'm not necessarily all that more interested in statewide snapshots that don't reflect Austin proper, even if "Austin proper" analysis (ABOR) might miss some sales.  I mean, if there's a better reason to look at TAMU data for my house in west Austin, then I'm all ears.  I just feel like Realtors in general want to make things as fuzzy as possible to preserve their value.

I feel that my value is "un-fuzzying" shit. 

So I've got a view property listed.  It's beachfront/harbor.  Fantastic views of both.  For you texas boys that aren't familiar, ocean views ain't so great after sunset, shit is dark.  But, the harbor component of my listing is tits; the lights of the boats coming in and docking, the restaurants, etc. 

I had a buyer that thinks he's a fucking expert.  Whatever he does for a living, it isn't real estate.  He "checked the internet, because everything is online now".   My listing is on the 5th floor.  He used a comp on the 1st floor, with a shit view.   This property is all about the view.  He's justifying his offer based on the 1st floor comp.   I'm well prepared to inform him that is "comp" isn't a comp, and I have an encyclopedic knowledge of this shit.  

He wouldn't listen to any of my points.  Not at all.  

As far as I'm concerned, he's still fuzzy, because I couldn't un-fuzzy him.   I do this shit all day, every day.

I don't go down to the massage parlor and assume that I can give a handjob as well as Cici, regardless of how much handjob porn I watch on my phone. Because I'm not actually GIVING THE HANDJOBS.

But any asshole with an internet connection thinks that they know as much as I do about my fucking job.

 

 

 

[Anastasis 23214]

4 hours ago, NoRagrets said:

Nice humble brag

Not really if you are holding in Austin. 

[Anastasis 23214]

2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

I feel that my value is "un-fuzzying" shit. 

So I've got a view property listed.  It's beachfront/harbor.  Fantastic views of both.  For you texas boys that aren't familiar, ocean views ain't so great after sunset, shit is dark.  But, the harbor component of my listing is tits; the lights of the boats coming in and docking, the restaurants, etc. 

I had a buyer that thinks he's a fucking expert.  Whatever he does for a living, it isn't real estate.  He "checked the internet, because everything is online now".   My listing is on the 5th floor.  He used a comp on the 1st floor, with a shit view.   This property is all about the view.  He's justifying his offer based on the 1st floor comp.   I'm well prepared to inform him that is "comp" isn't a comp, and I have an encyclopedic knowledge of this shit.  

He wouldn't listen to any of my points.  Not at all.  

As far as I'm concerned, he's still fuzzy, because I couldn't un-fuzzy him.   I do this shit all day, every day.

I don't go down to the massage parlor and assume that I can give a handjob as well as Cici, regardless of how much handjob porn I watch on my phone. Because I'm not actually GIVING THE HANDJOBS.

But any asshole with an internet connection thinks that they know as much as I do about my fucking job.

 

 

 

Sorry. The internet informed me that hand jobs and more were baked into the real estate business.