All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[UTPhil2006 3767]

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Very glad I locked my dude last night. Would have been carnage if I tried to float 

Whole last week has been carnage since our great 2 days we had last Monday and Tuesday. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Me: Yes, we can do this loan as long as rates don’t go up. DTIs are incredibly tight. 

(buyer gets under contract)

(rates go up)

Me: (puts on clown shoes)

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

58 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Whole last week has been carnage since our great 2 days we had last Monday and Tuesday. 

Yeah. Last Thursday was like ok- no big deal lost w couple points. 
friday- hold my beer- lost 30

monday says- that’s cute- how about 45 now 

Tuesday and Wednesday- hey maybe we’ve stabilized we’ve gained 20 points these two days- not enough but at least the right direction. Then Thursday comes and is like- nah- bro- how about another 40 point loss. 
yuck. 

[bluto 4804]

What’s the very general relationship between mbs and actual mortgage rates, fairly certain it’s not 1:1 

[Neonmoon 38126]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

What’s the very general relationship between mbs and actual mortgage rates, fairly certain it’s not 1:1 

They are not 1:1 but are related. How general of a description do you want?

[bluto 4804]

I’m wondering what the correlation is, like 2:1 or what 

[LCHorn 2529]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

I’m wondering what the correlation is, like 2:1 or what 

There’s more of a correlation when they worsen than when they go down.  It’s the kind of thing that makes rookie LO’s go “what the fuck, I thought the market was improving?!?!”  Basically, the big banks in control of the money don’t immediately pass on the pricing improvement.  

[UTPhil2006 3767]

UWM came out with this last week, wanted to iron out the details first, but I think this new one time construction program they offer now can benefit a good amount of you since a lot of you are building or are thinking about building..

 

[Neonmoon 38126]

Please change your contact info from black lettering for the love of american jesus

[UTPhil2006 3767]

30 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Please change your contact info from black lettering for the love of american jesus

Ha told thad the same thing. I told him I’d just put that one on here just to get the info out. Figured y’all knew how to reach me 

[Neonmoon 38126]

If you didn't lock before this week, you missed the dip

Just a brutal week

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

Down 41 basis points today. Ugh. 
to answer the question- typically down 50 MBS means up (worse) 1/8 of a point in rate. Up 50 in MBS means down (good) 1/8 of a point in rate. 
so- 4:1 on the correlation. 

[UTPhil2006 3767]

15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

If you didn't lock before this week, you missed the dip

Just a brutal week

Yeah we have a younger couple put in an offer last week and lost out. They’re putting another offer in this afternoon and I informed them their rate went up .25 

[bluto 4804]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 41 basis points today. Ugh. 
to answer the question- typically down 50 MBS means up (worse) 1/8 of a point in rate. Up 50 in MBS means down (good) 1/8 of a point in rate. 
so- 4:1 on the correlation. 

Exactly what I was needing to know, thx!

[Gil Bang 25551]

9 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

UWM came out with this last week, wanted to iron out the details first, but I think this new one time construction program they offer now can benefit a good amount of you since a lot of you are building or are thinking about building..

 

So, basically the old IndyMac program

[Izhmash 552]

On 2/9/2023 at 2:28 PM, Neonmoon said:

DTIs are incredibly tight. 

What percentage of America does this describe, based on your engagements?

[Izhmash 552]

On 2/10/2023 at 8:34 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

UWM came out with this last week, wanted to iron out the details first, but I think this new one time construction program they offer now can benefit a good amount of you since a lot of you are building or are thinking about building..

 

Love the 5% down. When we went under contract, most 1-time closes required 20-25% down, which made that less interesting for our situation (we still needed to sell our current home at the time and didn't want to put that much capital at risk).

The only challenge I see in today's environment is the 11 month build time. Ours is currently at 14, and others have gone 16 in our neighborhood. What happens (to your client) if the build hits 11 and isn't complete? 

[Neonmoon 38126]

4 hours ago, Izhmash said:

What percentage of America does this describe, based on your engagements?

It’s not 2008. There are rules in place to prevent that, and I don’t approve people for things they can’t afford. Every client is different, and there are tons of scenarios where one can push ratios hard and not be a sleezebag. The main one is a couple where one persons income can’t be counted because they don’t fit the standard guidelines. So even though with one income, the ratios are tight, they can afford the payment because they have the spouses income, but just because there isn’t a 2 year history, it can’t be counted

[Izhmash 552]

18 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s not 2008. There are rules in place to prevent that, and I don’t approve people for things they can’t afford. Every client is different, and there are tons of scenarios where one can push ratios hard and not be a sleezebag. The main one is a couple where one persons income can’t be counted because they don’t fit the standard guidelines. So even though with one income, the ratios are tight, they can afford the payment because they have the spouses income, but just because there isn’t a 2 year history, it can’t be counted

 

Sorry if my question was without context, but I wasn't trying to compare to previous years or suggest anything otherwise....just honestly trying to get a sense of how many people fit into this bucket. I see a lot of folks in my income range that leverage debt much differently than we do, and I was genuinely curious. I tend to be a bit more risk adverse re: debt as our family had the opportunity to experience tech layoffs early in our career and ended up designing a pretty safe approach to how we treat real estate as a portion of our overall portfolio.

 

Another naive question: Is the 2 year history requirement for business owners, or is that for "any job"?

 

FWIW: I'm not in this industry, only a buyer. I am interested in the human behavior elements behind the financial choices they make though...which spurred my original question. Appreciate the insight that all of you guys provide in this (and other) threads. Good stuff.

[Neonmoon 38126]

3 hours ago, Izhmash said:

 

Sorry if my question was without context, but I wasn't trying to compare to previous years or suggest anything otherwise....just honestly trying to get a sense of how many people fit into this bucket. I see a lot of folks in my income range that leverage debt much differently than we do, and I was genuinely curious. I tend to be a bit more risk adverse re: debt as our family had the opportunity to experience tech layoffs early in our career and ended up designing a pretty safe approach to how we treat real estate as a portion of our overall portfolio.

 

Another naive question: Is the 2 year history requirement for business owners, or is that for "any job"?

 

FWIW: I'm not in this industry, only a buyer. I am interested in the human behavior elements behind the financial choices they make though...which spurred my original question. Appreciate the insight that all of you guys provide in this (and other) threads. Good stuff.

It’s really hard to give a percentage of people that are more risk adverse vs not, because every single person is different. Additionally, different macroeconomic environments influence people differently and push them towards one direction or another. Generally speaking, most people are in the middle bucket of risk. Most don’t want to push boundaries, take on too much debt, or overextend themselves. Do I see the extremes? Absolutely. This last week alone, I had a doctor who makes 27K/month put down over 50% and only utilise 15% DTI. Super conservative. On the flip side, I had a realtor contact me asking if they could convert their primary home to an investment property and buy another home on only 20K/year salary. 

The 2 year requirement is generally required, but but you can get away with 1 year in specific situations. Self employed, which the person was in my previous example, requires 2 years, but this person had less than 6 months self employed in a new line of work, so just couldn’t use it, even though the bank statements show good income being made in the career. Seems unfair, but the GSE want to see history of income and stability for self employed people. 

As to the human element. I will say some younger people have to make harder financial decisions because of macro forces. Wage growth has not kept up with inflation the past 50 years, but specifically the Covid real estate 40% hike really fucked them, pretty much priced them out of my market, not to mention all the BiggerPocket assholes that bought an AirBnB in my area. Anything below 300K is a double wide. That being said, there are signs the AirBnB market is not doing well, so maybe that will help supply 

 

[Neonmoon 38126]

CPI comes in hot. No bueno 

[LTtxfan 48713]

8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

CPI comes in hot. No bueno 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

This is going to be ugly. Very ugly today. 
CNN trying to put lipstick on the pig as we speak. Don’t think that’s going to work. 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

Not too bad right now. Opened up down 27 

[Neonmoon 38126]

19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not too bad right now. Opened up down 27 

It’s fighting back. Only down 3. 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

22 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

It’s fighting back. Only down 3. 

I don’t understand anything. That wasn’t priced in. Would have expected us to lose 100 today. Shouldn’t have lost any the last week. Whatever. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I don’t understand anything. That wasn’t priced in. Would have expected us to lose 100 today. Shouldn’t have lost any the last week. Whatever. 

The market is conflicted. Inflation came down from last month, but barely. Shelter costs, which lag in being calculated, are still skewing the numbers too negative. The bulls are fighting the bears. I would think this gives the Fed cover to raise rates higher for longer but maybe the bulls know what’s coming in the next couples month 

this is why I’m not a day trader 

 

 

 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

The market is conflicted. Inflation came down from last month, but barely. Shelter costs, which lag in being calculated, are still skewing the numbers too negative. The bulls are fighting the bears. I would think this gives the Fed cover to raise rates higher for longer but maybe the bulls know what’s coming in the next couples month 

this is why I’m not a day trader 

 

 

 

Yep.  This is what I tell all my buyers- Hey- I've got a decent idea with confidence I know where we will be in 6 months, a sort of vague notion on 30 days, and absolutely no shot at telling you what's going to happen tomorrow.  

[Neonmoon 38126]

Bears are winning now. Down 30

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

5 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Bears are winning now. Down 30

Yep- just got my alert to lock ahead of reprice for the worse.  That's 5 or 6 reprice for the worse in the last 7 or 8 business days.  Feeling pretty 2022ish up in here right now.  Down 36 as I type. 

[UTPhil2006 3767]

Yep another brutal day and UWM is starting one of their LLPA pricing adjustments on locks starting tomorrow so a double kick in the junk

[Neonmoon 38126]

Already down 16 basis points today. No relief in sight

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

17 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Already down 16 basis points today. No relief in sight

Nope. Purchases were only down 12% last week. Looking good man, looking good. 

[UTPhil2006 3767]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Already down 16 basis points today. No relief in sight

[Neonmoon 38126]

My hopes for a good spring may have been premature. I think the Fed goes higher for longer now. The bulls keep wanting to run. PPI number came in way too hot

Edited February 16, 2023 by Neonmoon

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

My hopes for a good spring may have been premature. I think the Fed goes higher for longer now. The bulls keep wanting to run. PPI number came in way too hot

False start in January wiped away by this shitty February. Still think it’s easing down but yeah- running out of time for traditional buying season. 

[closetohumping 17287]

AS I mentioned to WUlaw, we are back to over ask land here in Socal

[Gil Bang 25551]

On 2/16/2023 at 8:40 AM, closetohumping said:

AS I mentioned to WUlaw, we are back to over ask land here in Socal

Yeah no

 

So, I thought about this for a minute, and thought maybe it was your hood that's acting up.  So, I pulled up the closed in Irvine for the last 30 days.  128 properties.  Ain't nobody got time for that, so I looked at the first 20.  3 closed over asking.   

Edited February 20, 2023 by Gil Bang

[Hefeweizen 5221]

28 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Yeah no

 

So, I thought about this for a minute, and thought maybe it was your hood that's acting up.  So, I pulled up the closed in Irvine for the last 30 days.  128 properties.  Ain't nobody got time for that, so I looked at the first 20.  3 closed over asking.   

I think it is all down to location, but in my hood prices have continued to climb from when I bought.  That was about 7 months ago.  Meanwhile the house I sold in Austin is worth about 400k less than what I sold it for.  Ouch…

[Gil Bang 25551]

Well, my oceanfront condo (that I talked about up thread) will close next week, and it is a record high price for the building.

[Hornbeliever 704]

Suggestions on best place to market a rental home in Austin (near Rollingwood)?  Going to self-manage but wondering where people who have enough money to pay high rents but not enough money to own said home go looking for a rental nowadays.

Last time I rented this house, I rented to a family with a Kindergartener who wanted A-rated Eanes schools and I said "how great would it be for them to stay here until she graduates"....and that little girl is now graduating so they are finally moving out in May.

Let's run this no-churn bitch back.

[MAUFRAIS 6557]

Suggestions on best place to market a rental home in Austin (near Rollingwood)?  Going to self-manage but wondering where people who have enough money to pay high rents but not enough money to own said home go looking for a rental nowadays.
Last time I rented this house, I rented to a family with a Kindergartener who wanted A-rated Eanes schools and I said "how great would it be for them to stay here until she graduates"....and that little girl is now graduating so they are finally moving out in May.
Let's run this no-churn bitch back.

Those poor bastards thought you were gonna sell it to them.

[LCHorn 2529]

2 hours ago, Hornbeliever said:

Suggestions on best place to market a rental home in Austin (near Rollingwood)?  Going to self-manage but wondering where people who have enough money to pay high rents but not enough money to own said home go looking for a rental nowadays.

Last time I rented this house, I rented to a family with a Kindergartener who wanted A-rated Eanes schools and I said "how great would it be for them to stay here until she graduates"....and that little girl is now graduating so they are finally moving out in May.

Let's run this no-churn bitch back.

We've had very good luck finding tenants using Zillow (plus the website can incorporate background checks if you prefer not to fool with it separately). 

Best piece of advice I would give you is pay for a good photographer.  If you're looking through self-published rental listings you'll note a vast difference in quality and you're presumably looking for a tenant that is looking for signals that you're not a cheapass landlord. 

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

Down 47 bips today in the MBS market meaning rates are looking like they will be up another 1/8 or so. 
we are making a very real run at 7% for national average on a 30 year fixed. 
Worst of the bad old times of 2022 is back again. Awesome. 

[KYHorn 16707]

10 hours ago, LCHorn said:

We've had very good luck finding tenants using Zillow (plus the website can incorporate background checks if you prefer not to fool with it separately). 

Best piece of advice I would give you is pay for a good photographer.  If you're looking through self-published rental listings you'll note a vast difference in quality and you're presumably looking for a tenant that is looking for signals that you're not a cheapass landlord. 

It always amazes me when I come across a realtor-backed listing and the pictures look like they were taken on a flip phone. How do they not realize that this is the most public aspect of the entire listing. It's like the new "curb appeal", except it determines whether people will actually want to go see the house in the first place.

[UTPhil2006 3767]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 47 bips today in the MBS market meaning rates are looking like they will be up another 1/8 or so. 
we are making a very real run at 7% for national average on a 30 year fixed. 
Worst of the bad old times of 2022 is back again. Awesome. 

The beatings will continue til morale improves dot gif 🤬

[Wulaw Horn 18918]

Just now, UTPhil2006 said:

The beatings will continue til morale improves dot gif 🤬

Yep.  January went so well.  It was basically everything we expected from the markets and eased down to where even the schmucks were able to give a rate of 5.99 out. We closed a guy at 5.375 I want to say on a run of the mill conventional.  Now- that was extremely competitive pricing, obviously, but yeah- it was like the world made sense.  Now it's like bring back the nightmare fuel.  

[Gil Bang 25551]

2 hours ago, KYHorn said:

It always amazes me when I come across a realtor-backed listing and the pictures look like they were taken on a flip phone. How do they not realize that this is the most public aspect of the entire listing. It's like the new "curb appeal", except it determines whether people will actually want to go see the house in the first place.

I'm trying to get an expired that another agent had.   It's a tightrope to walk; we aren't supposed to "disparage" fellow agents, but this guy did a dogshit job working the listing, and he took the photos himself with an iphone.   

"High-resolution professional photos with a 3-D virtual tour" is what I'm promising her.  Hopefully she gets the message. 

[Neonmoon 38126]

14 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

we aren't supposed to "disparage" fellow agents, 

[Neonmoon 38126]

41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep.  January went so well.  It was basically everything we expected from the markets and eased down to where even the schmucks were able to give a rate of 5.99 out. We closed a guy at 5.375 I want to say on a run of the mill conventional.  Now- that was extremely competitive pricing, obviously, but yeah- it was like the world made sense.  Now it's like bring back the nightmare fuel.  

Going from offering 5.99% to 6.99% in less than 30 days is why I drink