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UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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12 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

4.00 incoming on the 10 year treasury. Possibly today at this rate. Weren’t we just hoping to break through the 3.3 barrier like 15 days ago? Geez 

Yes.  And not just looking to break through the 3.3 barrier but like, you know, on it's way down to 2.5 or so.  maybe 2. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2749

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I’ve been consuming every macro and mortgage podcast/analysis article I can get my hands on and nothing seems to adequately explain the post jobs report results on rate pricing (aside from the obvious, it’s been shitty).  
 

I’m likely to be eating a lot of crow having sold “we’ll refinance you by June 2023” for the last six months to all our closed borrowers.  

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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51 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I’ve been consuming every macro and mortgage podcast/analysis article I can get my hands on and nothing seems to adequately explain the post jobs report results on rate pricing (aside from the obvious, it’s been shitty).  
 

I’m likely to be eating a lot of crow having sold “we’ll refinance you by June 2023” for the last six months to all our closed borrowers.  

It wasn’t just the Jan jobs report. It was hotter than expected CPI and a bond auction with weak demand. The market is now pricing in higher for longer fears, which given the strong signs of the economy, isn’t out of the questions. Most people had some late 2023 fed cuts priced in. Don’t know if that is still the case 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2749

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

It wasn’t just the Jan jobs report. It was hotter than expected CPI and a bond auction with weak demand. The market is now pricing in higher for longer fears, which given the strong signs of the economy, isn’t out of the questions. Most people had some late 2023 fed cuts priced in. Don’t know if that is still the case 

But it wasn’t hotter than expected; pretty much every major media source or macro pundit said it MET expectations.  The only really shock has been the jobs report, which Habib claims was the result of a methodology change (without corroborative support), and everyone else said “so what, it’s one report.”
 

There’s something different about market reactions in the past year that seems to result in higher volatility.  

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

But it wasn’t hotter than expected; pretty much every major media source or macro pundit said it MET expectations.  The only really shock has been the jobs report, which Habib claims was the result of a methodology change (without corroborative support), and everyone else said “so what, it’s one report.”
 

There’s something different about market reactions in the past year that seems to result in higher volatility.  

Yes it was. When the market expects 6.2% and it comes in at 6.4%. It’s hotter than expected. That difference matters. 
 

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26174

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Actions taken by the Biden administration on Wednesday are expected to save thousands of homebuyers an average of $800 annually, the White House said.

The White House said the annual mortgage insurance premium on Federal Housing Administration-insured loans will drop by .3 percentage points to .55% for most new borrowers. This premium is the fee paid by homeowners with FHA-insured mortgages.

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

Actions taken by the Biden administration on Wednesday are expected to save thousands of homebuyers an average of $800 annually, the White House said.

The White House said the annual mortgage insurance premium on Federal Housing Administration-insured loans will drop by .3 percentage points to .55% for most new borrowers. This premium is the fee paid by homeowners with FHA-insured mortgages.

They could have gone even further with the surpluses they are running. I guess we can take every little bit we get. 
Purchase apps last week came in lowest since 1995. Refinance apps are down 75% YOY (and it had already started to fall by a good bit last February). It’s brutal out there man. I’m sure the 3/10’s on fha pmi will right the ship. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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3 minutes ago, BTW said:

Reading the last two pages of this thread, it sounds like my timing is horrible, but I'm looking to do a cash-out re-fi on an investment property in Colorado.  Does anyone have someone they would recommend who is licensed in CO?

I think Phil's outfit is licensed up there. If not, I do have a guy that will do quality work up there at a pretty reasonable price. Hit me up with a PM and I can pass that along.

Thanks

Gabe

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3907

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9 minutes ago, BTW said:

Reading the last two pages of this thread, it sounds like my timing is horrible, but I'm looking to do a cash-out re-fi on an investment property in Colorado.  Does anyone have someone they would recommend who is licensed in CO?

Yeah we can do Colorado. We did mchookem’s up there. Shoot me an email and we’ll get you setup - pdubord@prodigymbo.com

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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2 hours ago, BTW said:

Reading the last two pages of this thread, it sounds like my timing is horrible, but I'm looking to do a cash-out re-fi on an investment property in Colorado.  Does anyone have someone they would recommend who is licensed in CO?

Actually bonds look like a three inside up pattern right now, so potential bullish sign, and if PCE report is good, then we might see a little relief in rates 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Actually bonds look like a three inside up pattern right now, so potential bullish sign, and if PCE report is good, then we might see a little relief in rates 

I’m going to take this as a blood oath on your part and declare jihad on you if it doesn’t immediately happen. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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9 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Some sellers are willing to offer a rate buy down. What price point home does a rate buy down outweigh a price drop?

Depends on how much the price drop is. You could price it neutral if you wanted to.  Personally- if it was me as a buyer I'd ask for that amount of money as a seller concession as opposed to a rate buy down- but a rate buy down isn't the worst thing in the world- it's just a bit gimmicky.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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10 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I’d say it’s very location specific. We’ve had easy concessions on sellers and we’ve had losses on 10-20k over. 

I don't know about location specific but for me it's been if it's listed on a Thursday and is a good house at a good price it's got offers and is done over the weekend- if it makes it to 10 days on market then the seller is going to take asking and be open to some concessions. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3907

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12 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Some sellers are willing to offer a rate buy down. What price point home does a rate buy down outweigh a price drop?

It’s really a case by case. For my VA young buyer he ain’t going anywhere anytime soon so that 2/1 buydown was a good use of his 10k concession. Bought it down to 3.375 the first year 4.375 second year and still had 3k left over for closing costs coverage. 
 

Now my FHA young buyers it doesn’t make a lick of sense to mess with the rate knowing our goal is to get them into conventional in the next couple years when rate drops. Don’t wanna throw bad money at it. 
 

So each situation and moreso each price point determines if it’s a good use or not 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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3 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It’s really a case by case. For my VA young buyer he ain’t going anywhere anytime soon so that 2/1 buydown was a good use of his 10k concession. Bought it down to 3.375 the first year 4.375 second year and still had 3k left over for closing costs coverage. 
 

Now my FHA young buyers it doesn’t make a lick of sense to mess with the rate knowing our goal is to get them into conventional in the next couple years when rate drops. Don’t wanna throw bad money at it. 
 

So each situation and moreso each price point determines if it’s a good use or not 

He's asking from the seller POV though- how does that change the calculus in your mind?  Do yall see people advertising in their listings and/or on MLS the availability of buy downs? 

It's not really much of a thing in Houston near as I can tell. I get the sense Austin is more of a market for that from speaking with a couple agents out there- people seem to be out there pushing the idea anyway such that agents are more educated about their existence and what they are. 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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18 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Some sellers are willing to offer a rate buy down. What price point home does a rate buy down outweigh a price drop?

Unique to every person. A rate buydown is just a seller concession. So let’s say it’s 10K. What would benefit your specific situation more? Less closings costs? (Cash out of pocket) lower monthly payment ( save a couple hundred each month with 2-1 buydown and refinance in 2 years or lower your rate a little bit with a permanent buydown), or reducing the purchase price of house. Price reduction only makes sense if it’s a larger one 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3907

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5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

He's asking from the seller POV though- how does that change the calculus in your mind?  Do yall see people advertising in their listings and/or on MLS the availability of buy downs? 

It's not really much of a thing in Houston near as I can tell. I get the sense Austin is more of a market for that from speaking with a couple agents out there- people seem to be out there pushing the idea anyway such that agents are more educated about their existence and what they are. 

Ah yeah I misread that. I’d say the price reduction would gain more traction for a seller than the concession marketing 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19560

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2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Ah yeah I misread that. I’d say the price reduction would gain more traction for a seller than the concession marketing 

I think so too.  But, probably depends on the price range. If I'm in the 300k range (that's first time buyer territory in HTown suburbs) I'd probably rather my clients had 10k in closing costs than 10k less house.  Probably. It would be nice to know if seller was open to that anyway (with a full price offer)

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LebongJames

LebongJames 1900

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I appreciate the responses. It’s a weird situation to have plenty of money for a 20% down payment and still feeling that it’s not financially smart. We have owned 3 homes but never lived in them longer than 3 years because I have moved for jobs.
 

Current house is listed for $620k in SA. We have an offer but it’s a contingent with appraisal. Which I have no idea what to think in this market. It’s 100% worth $620 but there are absolutely no comps in the last 6 months in our neighborhood.

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WBT

WBT 20879

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On 2/24/2023 at 2:27 PM, LebongJames said:

Some sellers are willing to offer a rate buy down. What price point home does a rate buy down outweigh a price drop?

81Cqj-4hf5L._AC_SL1500_.jpg

I mean, you can calculate the PV of the rate reduction.  I don't know why the seller wouldn't offer equivalent PV in whatever form the buyer wants.  But people seem to get hung up on weird stuff buying and selling houses, so what do I know?

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38130

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9 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

To be a mortgage broker like what you guys do, is a license or certification required in every state? I have a friend doing it in another state and I don’t think he has a license. 

Yes, but you don’t have to be licensed if your work for a depository institution. Your friend either works for a bank, or someone else is signing the loans for a kickback (super illegal)

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26174

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So, I moved to a different brokerage about 5 years ago.  The new place was great, the people super cool, just a great vibe.


Then, about 3 years ago, he sold to a really big company and we became part of that.  It has some advantages (in-house counsel, marketing staff, and tech support) but also has the disadvantages that come with big companies, like management churn. 

So, the broker that sold had a 3 year non-compete. The 3 years is up, so he's starting back up again, and has invited a large handful of the originals to join him.   I think I'm going to make the move.  He's offering to cover all costs (signs, business cards, etc), and he'll sweeten my split a couple of points. 

Meanwhile, I closed on that beach condo today, so tomorrow is payday!

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 26174

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California Realtor here:

It's possible that the seller was not aware of the asbestos, however, depending on the age of the home, your inspector should have noted the likelyhood of the presence of asbestos and should have advised asbestos testing.  Old homes are going to have some asbestos and some  lead-based paints.  

From a practical standpoint, if the asbestos is covered, it is "non-friable" and only poses a risk when it's disturbed. 

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RMac5

RMac5 1551

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On 2/23/2023 at 10:18 AM, BTW said:

Reading the last two pages of this thread, it sounds like my timing is horrible, but I'm looking to do a cash-out re-fi on an investment property in Colorado.  Does anyone have someone they would recommend who is licensed in CO?

Where in Co. If you don’t mind, just curious, wanted to buy something there but the COVID real estate price increase kicked me out. Sucks to be poor!

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