All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[LCHorn 2751]

3 hours ago, Esque said:

LO comes up with 2 points.

That's about all we can gross right now (on QM loans) in Austin and the LO gets half that, tops (on the mortgage bank side--the brokers make more but have to cover expenses on their end).  Frankly it's not unusual for us to have to cheaper from there, too.  In other words, the banking part of the equation isn't generating revenue sufficient to pay for those discounts. 

 

3 hours ago, Esque said:

More specifically, seeing home builders buying down rates and being told LO are contributing to those rate buydowns.

That's either been misunderstood or someone is communicating it dishonestly (either is likely, builders typically hire the incompetent or out to pasture for their internal lending, although perhaps I shouldn't be critical as that's the only piece of the market that's really moving). 

[Neonmoon 38130]

Realtors found liable for $1.8 billion in damages in conspiracy to keep commissions high | CNN Business

I really doubt anything changes. 

Until the tik tok videos start

 

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Realtors found liable for $1.8 billion in damages in conspiracy to keep commissions high | CNN Business

I really doubt anything changes. 

Until the tik tok videos start

 

Booooooooo.  Buyers paying their own commissions is going to ruin us all.  I mean, it was fun how easy it was to buy a house right now.  We shall refer to this as "the good old days"

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Booooooooo.  Buyers paying their own commissions is going to ruin us all.  I mean, it was fun how easy it was to buy a house right now.  We shall refer to this as "the good old days"

I don't think anything is going to change. Most buyers don't have 3% extra out of pocket. Maybe in the million plus market, but who gives a fuck about them. Maybe the listing agents will try to steal some buyer side business but that's about it. 

[Captainant 28539]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Realtors found liable for $1.8 billion in damages in conspiracy to keep commissions high | CNN Business

I really doubt anything changes. 

Until the tik tok videos start

I do wonder when there will be antitrust action and not just civil suits on the movement towards central algorithmic pricing for rentals, as that's been a major driver of increasing rents and profit taking

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I don't think anything is going to change. Most buyers don't have 3% extra out of pocket. Maybe in the million plus market, but who gives a fuck about them. Maybe the listing agents will try to steal some buyer side business but that's about it. 

This is my point. Buyers don’t have that money. And seller will think- oh- we don’t have to pay the buyers agent now. And shit will grind to a halt. This isn’t great. It’s not like everyone will go full regard but enough will to further grind shit to a halt. 

[Pato del Muerto 53506]

Buyers that can’t afford an agent will shop unrepresented.  
 

which does present its own set of issues for the ignorant and naive buyer, but the property shopping part is so online search now that that won’t be the issue. 
 

I think a fair number of folks got one on the buyers’ side just because it was free to them. 

[Neonmoon 38130]

18 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is my point. Buyers don’t have that money. And seller will think- oh- we don’t have to pay the buyers agent now. And shit will grind to a halt. This isn’t great. It’s not like everyone will go full regard but enough will to further grind shit to a halt. 

Nothing is grinding to a halt. Americans are too lazy, ignorant, stubborn, and entitled to make offers on houses without a buyer’s agent. Nothing is changing. Someday, some smart mortgage company will build writing contract offers into their business model. The fee will just be another line item on the LE. You think LOs will have a problem getting a RE license? I don‘t. Maybe hire a person and pay them low wage to show people houses. Don’t see that popping up anytime soon. 

Now, luxury real estate. Those cash buyer assholes can afford to pay 

[LCHorn 2751]

13 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Someday, some smart mortgage company will build writing contract offers into their business model.

We’ve (at the company level, not me personally), explored this on the compliance side and think it can be done.  Our main objection is our referrals are 60% realtor based and it doesn’t make us look good if we’re in competition with them.  

[Neonmoon 38130]

23 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

We’ve (at the company level, not me personally), explored this on the compliance side and think it can be done.  Our main objection is our referrals are 60% realtor based and it doesn’t make us look good if we’re in competition with them.  

Ha, I think this the ONLY reason it hasn't been done yet. 

But at some point, some company desperate enough, bold enough, or rich enough will say fuck it, and give it a go. 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

We offer both (as many of you have used) but they companies are two completely separate entities. 

[Catpfish 618]

Just curious, but who will help with inspections and other issues that come with an offer?  It seems like you might be opening yourself up to a conflict of interest accusation if the deal goes sideways and the buyers gets pissed, especially if something happens post-closing.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 minute ago, Catpfish said:

Just curious, but who will help with inspections and other issues that come with an offer?  It seems like you might be opening yourself up to a conflict of interest accusation if the deal goes sideways and the buyers gets pissed, especially if something happens post-closing.

In the theoretical company that offers loans and contract writing services? Whoever said company assigns to do that task. Why would there be a conflict of interest? This theoretical company would basically combine the LO & RE roles. Or have two people do it. I don’t know. This is America, I’m sure there are many ways entrepreneurs will figure out how to skin the cat. 

My overall point is there are certain tasks that need to be completed to purchase a home. Businesses will continue to figure out how to complete said tasks efficiently and offer value to their customers. Will some mortgage companies that don’t rely on realtor referrals offer real estate services for very cheap? Will some real estate companies focus on listings and offer buyer agency for free for anyone that wants to offer? Who the fuck knows 

I personally don’t think shit will change. But I wouldn’t be surprised if someone tries to gain market share in the future by offering buyer agent services in their business model for reduced fees  

[Catpfish 618]

I'm not saying it's a certain conflict of interest, but surely you can see where someone that controls 2/3s of the real estate transaction (lending and buying) could benefit from questionable practices to get a closing.  Theoretically, you have a kind of checks and balances right now, where each side should be able to keep things on the up and up (even though things get screwed up all the time anyways). 

Edited November 1, 2023 by Catpfish

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

If a buyer would pay their agent directly, couldn’t that still be rolled into the mortgage.

say someone buys a house for 500k. Their mortgage is now 515k (let’s assume no down payment for simplicity) with the 15k going to the buyer agent. Then the sell agent gets 15k and the home owner gets 485k.

of course I realize that if the buyer wants their mortgage to be 500k max or that is the mortgage limit, the both the agents will earn slightly less and the home owner receives less. Tough. Find another buyer then.

[Neonmoon 38130]

40 minutes ago, Catpfish said:

I'm not saying it's a certain conflict of interest, but surely you can see where someone that controls 2/3s of the real estate transaction (lending and buying) could benefit from questionable practices to get a closing.  Theoretically, you have a kind of checks and balances right now, where each side should be able to keep things on the up and up (even though things get screwed up all the time anyways). 

I certainly can see how someone that is incentivized monetarily to close the deal could benefit from questionable practices to get the closing. That is the current atmosphere. The realtor and loan officer are both monetarily incentivized to close the deal. I don't believe it matters if they are employed under the same shingle or not. There are already numerous companies that house both these roles under the same shingle. They are too numerous to list. 

The main hurdles to shenanigans are the Dodd-Frank laws, and more specifically, the GSE's actually enforcing their guidelines, and requiring buybacks to any loan that doesn't meet their guidelines. 

 

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

9 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If a buyer would pay their agent directly, couldn’t that still be rolled into the mortgage.

say someone buys a house for 500k. Their mortgage is now 515k (let’s assume no down payment for simplicity) with the 15k going to the buyer agent. Then the sell agent gets 15k and the home owner gets 485k.

of course I realize that if the buyer wants their mortgage to be 500k max or that is the mortgage limit, the both the agents will earn slightly less and the home owner receives less. Tough. Find another buyer then.

Yes, that is possible but the home would have to appraise for 515K for it to work. You can only lend on what the home appraises for

 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

42 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I certainly can see how someone that is incentivized monetarily to close the deal could benefit from questionable practices to get the closing. That is the current atmosphere. The realtor and loan officer are both monetarily incentivized to close the deal. I don't believe it matters if they are employed under the same shingle or not. There are already numerous companies that house both these roles under the same shingle. They are too numerous to list. 

The main hurdles to shenanigans are the Dodd-Frank laws, and more specifically, the GSE's actually enforcing their guidelines, and requiring buybacks to any loan that doesn't meet their guidelines. 

 

 

This and this. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13731]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Yes, that is possible but the home would have to appraise for 515K for it to work. You can only lend on what the home appraises for

 

Makes sense. So with this concept, the buyer would need to bring more cash to the table to buy a house or put down a smaller down payment.

[Pato del Muerto 53506]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Yes, that is possible but the home would have to appraise for 515K for it to work. You can only lend on what the home appraises for

 

I think there are some states where ltv over 100% are allowed, and lenders offer them at their discretion. I feel like CA and GA are two of them.  Historically predictable appreciation seems like it would drive those geographically, but I’m sure it’s for fairly highly qualified bortowers.  If it still exists, laws may have been amended since 2008. 
 

or is this generally a Texas specific discussion and stuff like the above irrelevant unless asked about?

Edited November 1, 2023 by Pato del Muerto

[Neonmoon 38130]

35 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Makes sense. So with this concept, the buyer would need to bring more cash to the table to buy a house or put down a smaller down payment.

Correct. That is how an appraisal gap is currently handled. Or the seller can cover it. However, the buyer bringing more cash to the table defeats the purpose. The whole point in this theoretical scenario is the buyer financing the buyer agent commission. 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

On 10/18/2023 at 10:14 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

5.0% on the 10Y by Friday close prob 

Back into the 4.7xx’s, a roughly 2 week low, on the 10 year at the end of today 

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Makes sense. So with this concept, the buyer would need to bring more cash to the table to buy a house or put down a smaller down payment.

Yes.  And what's the first problem most people have when buying?  Not enough money to make a deal work.  
This is stupid and terrible, this idea.  Maybe it's just because I hate change.  And, as a general rule, I don't even like real estate agents. 

Edit- that wasn't directed at you with the stupid and terrible, more conceptually with this change.  You get it as a lay person pretty quickly obviously.  

Edited November 1, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[LCHorn 2751]

2 favorable mornings in a row?  Maybe the tide is turning…

[Sam Lin 3599]

Oh how the turntables?

[UTPhil2006 3930]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

2 favorable mornings in a row?  Maybe the tide is turning…

I wouldn’t mind getting in the 4.5xx

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

33 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I wouldn’t mind getting in the 4.5xx

I wouldn't mind the spread narrowing from 3 to 2 (it's historical spread) and getting to 3.0 or 3.5. I guess my real dream is we get into the low 4's again at some point in time between now and 2026 or so.  A point a year would be pretty good.  Mid 6's next winter, mid 5's in 2025 and mid 4's in 2026.  That seems doable at some point in time in the future with normal economic cycles.

Couple questions:

1) Anyone believe the Fed when they say the economy is "strong". I see the GDP growth but that's based upon government spending and consumers going massively into debt on credit cards for essentials and lets just say I'm highly dubious

2) when's your bet for the next time you lock a rate at 5.99% or lower?  I've got 9/1/2024 on my bingo card.

[UTPhil2006 3930]

I’ll go 5/1

[Neonmoon 38130]

48 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Couple questions:

1) Anyone believe the Fed when they say the economy is "strong". I see the GDP growth but that's based upon government spending and consumers going massively into debt on credit cards for essentials and lets just say I'm highly dubious

2) when's your bet for the next time you lock a rate at 5.99% or lower?  I've got 9/1/2024 on my bingo card.

1) This is a super complicated question. But fuck it, I'll take a swing. The economy is strong if you look at just the numbers. GDP 4.9% , Unemployment 3.8%, Core PCE 3.7%, and low jobless claims. Besides the slightly high PCE, these are hall of fame numbers. Of course, if you look behind the curtain, you can see Gov Spending and Credit Card debt is propping up GDP. That's doesn't mean the number isn't real, it just means US makes bad financial decisions. Same with job numbers. Service industry jobs are propping up those numbers. 

Why does it feel like the economy is bad? If you remove the CR and Social Media negative feedback loops, for regular Americans, it feels like the economy is fucked because the two biggest expenses, housing & automobile are incredibly unaffordable due to higher interest rates, comparable to wages. People can't afford housing or automobiles. 

At the same time, if you are a boomer or Gen X, you are probably feeling pretty awesome. You have a 3% interest rate on the home that increased 40% in value in the past couple year, hopefully a steady job, and the S&P return is around 11% YTD. While everyone is bitching about the economy, I still see many people older people buying houses no problem, mostly with cash. 

Housing has been in a recession since summer 2022, but at least some realtors are doing okay because there are still rich cash buyers and they make 3% when the median house has increased to $450,000 (many realtors are not surviving though), but it feels super extra shitty for loan officers since we are seeing the lowest loan application data in 30 years. 

2) I will take 12/2024 because I touch myself at night

 

 

[Storm the Field 5366]

27 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Why does it feel like the economy is bad? If you remove the CR and Social Media negative feedback loops, for regular Americans, it feels like the economy is fucked because the two biggest expenses, housing & automobile are incredibly unaffordable due to higher interest rates, comparable to wages. People can't afford housing or automobiles. 

 

The majority of poll respondents indicate that their personal financial situation is good and that their local economy is doing well, but they think the national economy is the worst in history. 

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

29 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

1) This is a super complicated question. But fuck it, I'll take a swing. The economy is strong if you look at just the numbers. GDP 4.9% , Unemployment 3.8%, Core PCE 3.7%, and low jobless claims. Besides the slightly high PCE, these are hall of fame numbers. Of course, if you look behind the curtain, you can see Gov Spending and Credit Card debt is propping up GDP. That's doesn't mean the number isn't real, it just means US makes bad financial decisions. Same with job numbers. Service industry jobs are propping up those numbers. 

Why does it feel like the economy is bad? If you remove the CR and Social Media negative feedback loops, for regular Americans, it feels like the economy is fucked because the two biggest expenses, housing & automobile are incredibly unaffordable due to higher interest rates, comparable to wages. People can't afford housing or automobiles. 

At the same time, if you are a boomer or Gen X, you are probably feeling pretty awesome. You have a 3% interest rate on the home that increased 40% in value in the past couple year, hopefully a steady job, and the S&P return is around 11% YTD. While everyone is bitching about the economy, I still see many people older people buying houses no problem, mostly with cash. 

Housing has been in a recession since summer 2022, but at least some realtors are doing okay because there are still rich cash buyers and they make 3% when the median house has increased to $450,000 (many realtors are not surviving though), but it feels super extra shitty for loan officers since we are seeing the lowest loan application data in 30 years. 

2) I will take 12/2024 because I touch myself at night

 

 

That is a really good answer on #1.  I also think that inflation on every day goods and services and food and gas is kneecapping the average family as well and that really hurts.  I paid $6.00 a gallon out in California and went to a restaurant (not all that nice- mexican food joint) and nothing was below $18.00 on the menu and I was like- how do people do this (was at my cousins wedding by myself).  

Yeah- many people in our industry aren't surviving, that's for sure.  Was talking to a realtor who isn't bad and she's getting a job. She told me she is tracking like 40k this year.  She ain't alone I don't think. And she's a working agent that actually you know, buys and sells homes.

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

4 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

The majority of poll respondents indicate that their personal financial situation is good and that their local economy is doing well, but they think the national economy is the worst in history. 

I'm skeptical on that polling when I see the macro numbers.  Feels like they talked to a bunch of boomers.  

[Esque 135]

21 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yes.  And what's the first problem most people have when buying?  Not enough money to make a deal work.  
This is stupid and terrible, this idea.  Maybe it's just because I hate change.  And, as a general rule, I don't even like real estate agents. 

Edit- that wasn't directed at you with the stupid and terrible, more conceptually with this change.  You get it as a lay person pretty quickly obviously.  

The other side of the argument could be that agents have artificially increased asset values in residential.  If you purchased a home a year ago, you needed a minimum of a 6.5%+ asset appreciation just to break even on your capital value as commissions were 6% off the top.  Now that each side has to pay for their own representation, I expect agents will get squeezed in their fees.

Honestly, the $35k in commissions we paid is an absolute joke relative to the work the agent/s did.  Contracts are so standardized today in Texas.  I'm sure some attorney out there would be willing to offer a service such as $500 / contract.  Takes all of 10 minutes to write it up.  Most of the sales and marketing today is really done online.  So likewise, I'm sure over time there will be a service to manage showings / open houses.

I truly believe to date there's been a lack of this because the agents have operated more as a cartel and have blocked efficient market participants out of the process.  That's from inspections, loans originators, title companies, and so forth.  A more open and transparent process is probably a net win for consumers long-term and a loss for agents.  Which means less agents as fewer survive.  Nothing wrong with that, imo.

[Catpfish 618]

Talked to an escrow officer a couple of days ago and a good month for them now is 40% less than average (smaller satellite office).  They've had a couple of months with 60-70% less.  Obviously, no refi's to take up the slack.  The parent company is looking at 20% layoffs across the board.

[Mother mopar 3386]

That is a really good answer on #1.  I also think that inflation on every day goods and services and food and gas is kneecapping the average family as well and that really hurts.  I paid $6.00 a gallon out in California and went to a restaurant (not all that nice- mexican food joint) and nothing was below $18.00 on the menu and I was like- how do people do this (was at my cousins wedding by myself).  
Yeah- many people in our industry aren't surviving, that's for sure.  Was talking to a realtor who isn't bad and she's getting a job. She told me she is tracking like 40k this year.  She ain't alone I don't think. And she's a working agent that actually you know, buys and sells homes.

California is a bit different on gas as it has to switch blends during summer/winter. During that annual switch, refineries have to go offline for said switch which increases the cost combined w/special emission additives in the fuel. I believe...they are one of the only states that do that and combined w/high prices to begin w/you end up at $6G gas.

Then again why is diesel (raw fuel) more expensive than gas when it's a lot less refined therefore utilizing resources but it's more expensive? I don't understand it. Side note, I'm here for some 5% rates.

[LCHorn 2751]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

2) when's your bet for the next time you lock a rate at 5.99% or lower?  I've got 9/1/2024 on my bingo card.

I'm putting my money on the 5/24; Habib will write that his predictions for May 2023 was actually for May 2024. 

[ChickenSandwich 9959]

I think this is the biggest issue for most working and lower middle class families.

Also, inflation has been a real challenge for small business to navigate increased costs across the board, price increases for customers and wage increases for labor.  They simply can't absorb that level of change is such a short time frame easily.

 

• The typical American household spent $709 more in July than it did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics.
• Compared to one year ago, the typical household spent $202 more this July.

Families are spending about $700 more per month than two years ago thanks to inflation (linkedin.com)

[victory88 5765]

56 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

I think this is the biggest issue for most working and lower middle class families.

Also, inflation has been a real challenge for small business to navigate increased costs across the board, price increases for customers and wage increases for labor.  They simply can't absorb that level of change is such a short time frame easily.

 

• The typical American household spent $709 more in July than it did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics.
• Compared to one year ago, the typical household spent $202 more this July.

Families are spending about $700 more per month than two years ago thanks to inflation (linkedin.com)

My monthly cost at my office has gone up from 35k a month to 45k a month during the last 2 years.  All of it has to do with wages, cost for supplies, utilities, fees, etc.  I've had to raise my fees but most of my patients have been understanding as it's everything.  It truly is a fucked situation.  I do pretty well and I feel it.  I cannot imagine the stress people are feeling that live paycheck to paycheck.  My 25 yo sister is a CPA and her fiance a CFA.  They are both struggling to save with their student loans, cost of living, etc.  They're stressed about paying for their wedding and also saving for a house.  

[UTPhil2006 3930]

2 hours ago, Catpfish said:

Talked to an escrow officer a couple of days ago and a good month for them now is 40% less than average (smaller satellite office).  They've had a couple of months with 60-70% less.  Obviously, no refi's to take up the slack.  The parent company is looking at 20% layoffs across the board.

 

11 minutes ago, victory88 said:

My monthly cost at my office has gone up from 35k a month to 45k a month during the last 2 years.  All of it has to do with wages, cost for supplies, utilities, fees, etc.  I've had to raise my fees but most of my patients have been understanding as it's everything.  It truly is a fucked situation.  I do pretty well and I feel it.  I cannot imagine the stress people are feeling that live paycheck to paycheck.  My 25 yo sister is a CPA and her fiance a CFA.  They are both struggling to save with their student loans, cost of living, etc.  They're stressed about paying for their wedding and also saving for a house.  

At this point it’s basically 

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

I think this is the biggest issue for most working and lower middle class families.

Also, inflation has been a real challenge for small business to navigate increased costs across the board, price increases for customers and wage increases for labor.  They simply can't absorb that level of change is such a short time frame easily.

 

• The typical American household spent $709 more in July than it did two years ago to buy the same goods and services, according to Moody’s Analytics.
• Compared to one year ago, the typical household spent $202 more this July.

Families are spending about $700 more per month than two years ago thanks to inflation (linkedin.com)

 

21 minutes ago, victory88 said:

My monthly cost at my office has gone up from 35k a month to 45k a month during the last 2 years.  All of it has to do with wages, cost for supplies, utilities, fees, etc.  I've had to raise my fees but most of my patients have been understanding as it's everything.  It truly is a fucked situation.  I do pretty well and I feel it.  I cannot imagine the stress people are feeling that live paycheck to paycheck.  My 25 yo sister is a CPA and her fiance a CFA.  They are both struggling to save with their student loans, cost of living, etc.  They're stressed about paying for their wedding and also saving for a house.  

 

9 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

 

At this point it’s basically 

Yeah man, I really want to see the people @Storm the Field is talking about who are saying their personal financial situation is great and never been better. I just am not running into anyone like that and I obviously have dozens of conversations with people about their personal finances every month.  

[StassneyHorn 6775]

My personal financial situation is great and has never been better. Ask me anything.

[Incredulity 11876]

[Storm the Field 5366]

41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 

 

Yeah man, I really want to see the people @Storm the Field is talking about who are saying their personal financial situation is great and never been better. I just am not running into anyone like that and I obviously have dozens of conversations with people about their personal finances every month.  

1. You're tacking on additional shit I didn't say. I didn't say "great" or "never been better"

2. The Fed tracks this data every year in its annual Economic Well-Being Surveys. Most recent data was from 2022, when 73% of respondents said their personal financial situation was "okay", "good", or "great". That's down from 78% in 2021, but in line with the average of 74% since 2017. (By comparison that number was below 70% for the the entire period between 2012-16).

Digging through the data, most of the decline came from lower income folks with a HS diploma or less. College Grads were at 88%, near all-time highs.

The big "wow" is that 50% of respondents rated the national economy as "good or excellent" in 2019. That dropped to 26% in 2020, and all the way down to 18% in 2022.  

I don't see any way of interpreting the data other than that people's assessment of their personal financial situation has not changed all that much in the past 4 years, while their assessment of the national economy has fallen off a cliff. People by and large think they're doing at least OK, but that the country as a whole is worse off than even 2007.

3. Not to be a dick, but it's pretty apparent from this thread you're inclined to discount any economic data that doesn't vibe with your ongoing personal experience of "it sucks to be in the mortgage business in 2023." I try not to do the opposite and ignore negative data because I work in O&G. 

Edited November 2, 2023 by Storm the Field

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

1. You're tacking on additional shit I didn't say. I didn't say "great" or "never been better"

2. The Fed tracks this data every year in its annual Economic Well-Being Surveys. Most recent data was from 2022, when 73% of respondents said their personal financial situation was "okay", "good", or "great". That's down from 78% in 2021, but in line with the average of 74% since 2017. (By comparison that number was below 70% for the the entire period between 2012-16).

Digging through the data, most of the decline came from lower income folks with a HS diploma or less. College Grads were at 88%, near all-time highs.

The big "wow" is that 50% of respondents rated the national economy as "good or excellent" in 2019. That dropped to 26% in 2020, and all the way down to 18% in 2022.  

I don't see any way of interpreting the data other than that people's assessment of their personal financial situation has not changed all that much in the past 4 years, while their assessment of the national economy has fallen off a cliff. People by and large think they're doing at least OK, but that the country as a whole is worse off than even 2007.

3. Not to be a dick, but it's pretty apparent from this thread you're inclined to discount any economic data that doesn't vibe with your ongoing personal experience of "it sucks to be in the mortgage business in 2023." I try not to do the opposite and ignore negative data because I work in O&G. 

sorry- was truly not trying to put words in your mouth on that.  I was responding without going back up and reading (and hadn't quoted so it wasn't in front of me).

I'm not ignoring positive economic data b/c I'm in the mortgage business and it sucks to be in the mortgage business in 2023.  Sure. It does. I'm making a living. I was on the top 25 brokers in Texas at UWM last month. I missed the Scottsman top 150 brokers last year by 200k in loan value (less than 1 loan- grrrrr).  This isn't me  personally in a death spiral.  This is me paying attention to lots of economic numbers and actually diving down into stuff below the surface and looking at them and analyzing them and forming my own opinion.  Maybe I'm wrong.  

Edited November 2, 2023 by Wulaw Horn

[ChickenSandwich 9959]

Credit Card debt is at 1.031 Trillion

2023 Credit Card Debt Statistics | LendingTree

Car Repos up 20.4% (July 23)

Car Repossessions Are On The Rise (yahoo.com)

Foreclosures up 18.4%

Foreclosure Rates for All 50 States in September 2023 | SoFi

 

Last jobs report shows a loss of 77,000 fulltime jobs, with almost all new jobs being part time, second/ multi or government.

 

The wealthiest 10% of Americans own a record 89% of all U.S. stocks
 

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/10/18/the-wealthiest-10percent-of-americans-own-a-record-89percent-of-all-us-stocks.html

Edited November 2, 2023 by ChickenSandwich

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Credit Card debt is at 1.031 Trillion

2023 Credit Card Debt Statistics | LendingTree

Car Repos up 20.4% (July 23)

Car Repossessions Are On The Rise (yahoo.com)

Foreclosures up 18.4%

Foreclosure Rates for All 50 States in September 2023 | SoFi

 

Last jobs report shows a loss of 77,000 fulltime jobs, with almost all new jobs being part time, second/ multi or government.

Yeah, this is the kind of stuff I'm talking about when I say I look beyond the headline numbers.  Also- something like 2.1M service jobs added in the last 12-18 months, which I believe (and this is directionally accurate if not precisely accurate on the numbers) represents more than the total jobs added economically over the same time. If it's not all of them it's most of them.  People are working 2 and 3 jobs in shitty sectors and piling up massive credit card debt and having their rides repo'd.  The foreclosure stuff is sort of bullshit on the up 18.4% b/c it's basically from all time lows. We have enough appreciation in the sector that it's really not an issue. If that goes away things get super grim and bleak- but because of the supply and demand issues we've talked about so often on here I don't see a big drop in prices, and actual appreciation is up 3 or so % YOY which is pretty much what you'd want.  

[StassneyHorn 6775]

Homeowners are typically dual income and 92% of them currently have a rate under 6%. 82.5% have a rate under 5%. 62% are under 4%. And they probably bought all before the last 3 years when the huge spike in prices maxed out, which explains the rates they got.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-7-mortgage-rates-are-so-much-worse-for-buyers-now-than-20-years-ago-182203029.html#:~:text=In fact%2C 91.8% of US,have a rate below 4%.

It’s cheaper to rent now if you are single income under 35 or in retirement age. 92% of homeowners bought before the huge runup in prices and have the interest rate to prove it. The conditions in your industry are not reflective of the country. You have kids you have to feed. You have  multiple car notes you need to pay. You have multiple mortgages, if I’m not mistaken. That’s a much bigger spending problem than someone who has a couple grand in credit card debt because all of those are long term.

[Wulaw Horn 19596]

3 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Homeowners are typically dual income and 92% of them currently have a rate under 6%. 82.5% have a rate under 5%. 62% are under 4%. And they probably bought all before the last 3 years when the huge spike in prices maxed out, which explains the rates they got.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heres-why-7-mortgage-rates-are-so-much-worse-for-buyers-now-than-20-years-ago-182203029.html#:~:text=In fact%2C 91.8% of US,have a rate below 4%.

It’s cheaper to rent now if you are single income under 35 or in retirement age. 92% of homeowners bought before the huge runup in prices and have the interest rate to prove it. The conditions in your industry are not reflective of the country. You have kids you have to feed. You have  multiple car notes you need to pay. You have multiple mortgages, if I’m not mistaken. That’s a much bigger spending problem than someone who has a couple grand in credit card debt because all of those are long term.

No car notes. one mortgage note. Kids to feed.  

Cool- there are plenty of people who have equity in their house and low interest rate. Absolutely. Which is why I said- we talking to a bunch of boomers here? Or people who already got theirs.  It's a really shitty time to be someone that's treated like part of the scenery or infrastructure in this country. It's a super shitty time to be young. People are being priced out. That's part of what explains the migration we are seeing where places like California and NY are hemoraging people, is trying to get their piece of the American Dream and have been locked out.  But, it's even becoming less affordable in lower COL places as well.  I'm fine with making the standard gentlemans wager that this is a house of cards that all comes tumbling down economically before the close of 2024.  Like I said- I may well be wrong, but I'm not projecting my personal financial situation onto the broader general economy.  

[Storm the Field 5366]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

People are working 2 and 3 jobs in shitty sectors and piling up massive credit card debt and having their rides repo'd. 

As of September 2023, 5.0% of employed persons are classified as a "multiple job holder." Basically right at the average for past 15 years. A higher % of people were working a 2nd job in the Fall of 2019 than the Fall of 2023.

 

 

[StassneyHorn 6775]

You’ve already been wrong for a year, why would I agree to an extension?

This was a heavily telegraphed runup in interest rates and acting surprised with how work has dried up, is weird to me. Were you not telling everyone for years these are record lows and to take advantage now? Did you not mean it when you were telling clients then? 

 

Edited November 2, 2023 by StassneyHorn