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UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
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mchookem
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alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
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Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

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Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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7 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I absolutely figure at some point intents right borrower will be getting a rate that starts with a 4 sometime in 24 and strongly suspect something that starts with a 3 between now and 2026 EOY. 

Promise 4 and see how that goes. And I’m on your side of fours 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Promise 4 and see how that goes. And I’m on your side of fours 

Not a promise, but I think that happens. Maybe we dodge a recession )that would be against al the historical numbers) in which case no cuts and probably not, but I think we get at least a mild one and that should be enough to drop a point or so which is all we need for “the right borrower and deal” to get into 4’s. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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8 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Williams speaks up in an attempt to ruin the party. Trying to talk down the bulls. 

image.png.c2e2c99db9147fe301c68728ade01b7a.png

Was wondering what happened- thanks.  Twas a wild ride.  At 7:30 Central we were up 10 basis points in the mbs market.  Then, at 8:01 we were down 40.  now, at 8:14 we are back to zero on the day.  Looks like maybe the bulls shrugged him off?

Be interesting to see what the cap markets do with pricing in an hour- are they going to view that as the down 40 we were early or go with level to start the day.  Lots going on right now market wise for no reports being published today...

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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1 minute ago, Neonmoon said:

You know they're going to keep as much back as they can just in case

That's my supposition.  Also it's Friday- pricing is generally soft on Friday it seems like.  They don't want a ton of exposure going into the weekend without being able to course correct/lay off risk with options I suppose. 

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Gil Bang

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On 12/14/2023 at 5:47 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

I absolutely figure at some point intents right borrower will be getting a rate that starts with a 4 sometime in 24 and strongly suspect something that starts with a 3 between now and 2026 EOY. 

 

On 12/14/2023 at 7:09 PM, Neonmoon said:

5s is a very healthy market. Make it so 

 

Yeah, the 5s is where I want to end up.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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10 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I feel like the 10 year is mostly gonna coast through these next two weeks. Keep it at or below 4.000 come Jan 2 and I’m a happy camper 

PCE is out Friday. That’s the last market mover (potentially) of the year. Flat to up 1/10th would be good as it would bring inflation under 3, which should send the markets off and running in a positive direction.  
selfishly, I’d like to see MbS up 50 basis points in the next couple weeks and then have it chill out there for about 3 months and see if we can catch our breath from some of this roller coaster and begin a graduated retreat. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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On 12/14/2023 at 9:10 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Only thing about this program is they could have gone a little lower with the preset percentages. They’re lower than current but comparative to 210 days ago they’re not. 

Talking to other LO and such starting to think this was more of a marketing ploy by UWM than anything as most of anyone would who have a high enough rate doesn’t qualify. Most everyone in our pipeline was at or below the lowest rate they’re offering and certainly not .5 below. They basically put out a program knowing very few will be able to utilize and get a good bit of free publication. Not the dumbest idea. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Talking to other LO and such starting to think this was more of a marketing ploy by UWM than anything as most of anyone would who have a high enough rate doesn’t qualify. Most everyone in our pipeline was at or below the lowest rate they’re offering and certainly not .5 below. They basically put out a program knowing very few will be able to utilize and get a good bit of free publication. Not the dumbest idea. 

So, I looked at all the stuff and here is where it boils down to...

Most likely FHA and VA's closed between 11/15/22 and 1/2/23, plus VA's in April of 23 and FHA's in March, April and May of 23, more or less.  Now- once you get into July all the VA's and FHA's are going to make sense between July and december 1 or so- but they have to be 210 days away on the payment.  So- that's the sweet spot in your pipeline that's going to make sense. I had 4 or 5 people hit those parameters.  If you can get a mailing list of people that closed with those loans you are good.  Also- keep in mind that retail branches especially load up rate on FHA and VA- and the idea they have is not necessarily to refinance your pipeline but the asshole down the streets pipeline.  

Hope that helps.  I have a way of figuring out everything except rate on someone else's pipeline- so I can bust out a list of 1000 people almost overnight that closed during those times (I'm just using the ST. Louis fed average interest rate database) but I can't mico target for actual rate- but rather have to deal with date as a proxy for someone who it "probably" makes sense for. I want to buy that list with rate and contact but can't find that out there, so I guess I'm just going to old school send some mailings out and see what happens.  

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 19069

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2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Talking to other LO and such starting to think this was more of a marketing ploy by UWM than anything as most of anyone would who have a high enough rate doesn’t qualify. Most everyone in our pipeline was at or below the lowest rate they’re offering and certainly not .5 below. They basically put out a program knowing very few will be able to utilize and get a good bit of free publication. Not the dumbest idea. 

Their turn times are behind right now.  I think it was a way for them to narrowly stress test their system so that when we go into full on refinance mode they know what kind of staff they are going to need to keep the railroad running on time.  

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UT_OB1

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On 12/7/2023 at 6:57 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

This. It’s by far the most annoying and horrid thing about our job. And as mentioned above you guys I’ve been working with for 15+ years now (all the way back to Hornfans) so for it to just absolute annihilate you guys every single time when I run your credit makes me feel like a horses patoot 

12 calls in the last hour. Thanks Phil!  
 

*messing with you. I know it’s not your fault. 

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2616

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On 12/7/2023 at 10:39 AM, UT_OB1 said:

Your link may be 100% OK, but it is amusing that it takes you to a somewhat random appearing site (not a .gov or anything) and says you’ll need to give your name, address, DOB, and SSN.  Lol hard pass

 

3 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

12 calls in the last hour. Thanks Phil!  
 

*messing with you. I know it’s not your fault. 

 

Maybe you should try that link I provided 😉

 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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On 12/14/2023 at 9:10 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Only thing about this program is they could have gone a little lower with the preset percentages. They’re lower than current but comparative to 210 days ago they’re not. 

They opened up the 5.499 option on FHA and VA but are kind of still on the same scale of the 5.75 costs x etc so while it’s an option it’s not overly a great one. Maybe they’ll keep reading my bitching on here and shift the whole subset of the offer and actually make everyone a good deal 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Inflation came in cooler than expected. Mbs prices are… down.  Hmmmm. Thought that might be springboard to go higher but certainly no complaint about the run we’ve been on the last month or so.  

I’m liking the odds of keeping the 10 year under 4.00 by EOY

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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46 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Zaaaamnnn I see you 10 year 

 

On 12/20/2023 at 3:21 PM, UTPhil2006 said:

I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.7xx. Nice little 2 day run has us at 5 month lows at 3.87 at the end of today. 

I wouldn’t mind going into the 3.6xx

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3591

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2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Earlier Fidelity and Mr. Cooper/  They're making the rounds

I have friends still at Mr. Cooper and they were shutdown for almost 2 full weeks. And that's a 100% shutdown, not a single employee (except for some IT who were in charge of thge rebuild), not a single closer, not a single funder, no payoff statements issued for the largest non-banking servicer in the country. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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16 hours ago, shnsajax said:

I have friends still at Mr. Cooper and they were shutdown for almost 2 full weeks. And that's a 100% shutdown, not a single employee (except for some IT who were in charge of thge rebuild), not a single closer, not a single funder, no payoff statements issued for the largest non-banking servicer in the country. 

Damn. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3807

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2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Live look at MBS in 2024

anigif_original-grid-image-27915-1424054799-4.gif.f5cdf20c7eb9053ef9d9bb2110f86187.gif

Still below 4.00 on the 10 year and a lot of the the damage was done yesterday.. gotta think this is a little leveling off from the week we had between Christmas and NYE drop. 

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