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UTPhil2006

By UTPhil2006
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52215

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In my specific case, I did not get comps from the realtor.  I got them from the appraiser that appraised the home when we bought it. 
 

initial comps over the summer had us in the 440 range but by the time we had the house ready, and then had the hail problem in October that hat to be fixed, we asked him for an update and rates had pushed values down 10%.  

might recover for this summer and we sold at a market dip/correction but we can’t always choose when to sell.

 

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mchookem
mchookem

alrighty...i haven't wanted to jinx anything so i've been pretty quiet... but we just closed on our new home in Denver this morning so i can now officially say YEAH! 😃 in a nutshell - we sold

Esque
Esque

Thank you for this - gave me a good laugh.  But also a good reminder of how the general public does not understand what is going on in real estate and thus why so many get caught offsides when the tid

Neonmoon
Neonmoon

Realtor: You should list your house at 500K Client: But three houses down the street sold for 700K Realtor: Yeah, but those are overvalued due to pandemic Fed policy and institutional invest

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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8 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I guess the last thing I would say is if someone is willing to do that work for such a small fee, it does raise some questions about the quality of representation you are getting, and what risks you are being exposed to without realizing it.  

Just because someone is charging less, doesn’t mean the quality of representation is less 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14917

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17 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Just because someone is charging less, doesn’t mean the quality of representation is less 

That’s why I said it raises questions, rather than just saying it was less. 

I got my license originally because agents I dealt with were terrible and not worth the money being paid. So I get the general concept of trying to save money and being fed up with realtors.

I only do deals for friends or friends of friends if I’m not busy with management consulting. Having been in the business for several years now, I learned many little actions and non-actions make a huge difference in how much money actually ends up in the pocket of a seller or how much a buyer has to pay. Or what quagmire of legal trouble one can find themselves in due to a incompetent rep.

It doesn’t mean that 3% on a million dollar home is fair. It just means you have to be careful to not hire someone who ends up costing you money. It’s just like hiring a lawyer or accountant. You can go really cheap, and find yourself in trouble.

The labor market in most industries are  relatively efficient in terms of pay vs competency, notwithstanding major industry discontinuities like AI, etc.

I have no idea if Pato maxed out. He may have done fine. Just like someone hiring a cheap accountant. They may do fine. 

What raised the question for me was .5%. At 1 or 2 %, quality realtors will often do that. Heck I agree to attractive rates for a lot for people. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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20 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Core PCE comes in cooler at 2.9%

image.png.f5e019d89bb87ef09dd02d8915f89319.png

 

Edit: 10 year up 1.5 basis points. I don't get it

 

Me either. Everything was as expected to good news. I would expect 25 basis point improvement today in the mbs market. We are down 1 point. Huh. Interested to see the dig in beyond the headline numbers. 

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14917

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5 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Core PCE comes in cooler at 2.9%

image.png.f5e019d89bb87ef09dd02d8915f89319.png

 

Edit: 10 year up 1.5 basis points. I don't get it

 

I may be making this up, but I swear we’ve seen several times the bond market go the exact wrong direction from news, then reverse shortly thereafter and go the direction they should. It might be just like earnings announcements on stocks. People sell the news, or cover shorts. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3785

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7 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I may be making this up, but I swear we’ve seen several times the bond market go the exact wrong direction from news, then reverse shortly thereafter and go the direction they should. It might be just like earnings announcements on stocks. People sell the news, or cover shorts. 

Late in the week and month is finicky too

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

From weird to shitty.  Down 35 now for who knows why.  I expect to get a phone call from Habib in T minus 3, 2, 1...

 

Thankfully I locked my one guy before our reprice for the worse. I didn’t trust what was happening. 

And yeah, what the F was the 35 down minute or two there? Weird as shit 

 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Down .05 already. Feel like this is gonna be a solid week. Wouldn’t mind being below 4.00 by EOM Wednesday 

Not according to Habib this morning.  Already warning about a big and unexpected number of job reports but saying that it will ultimately be revised downward.  He had explanation for why that is specific to January with seasonally adjusted inflation and also they sort of rework all of the prior year into that January report. I wasn't really tracking and then moved on.  He seems to be predicting gas surging up with trouble in the Red Sea, blah blah blah.  but then- ended it with- go ahead and float- so who knows.  

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LCHorn

LCHorn 2570

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11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not according to Habib this morning.  Already warning about a big and unexpected number of job reports but saying that it will ultimately be revised downward.  He had explanation for why that is specific to January with seasonally adjusted inflation and also they sort of rework all of the prior year into that January report. I wasn't really tracking and then moved on.  He seems to be predicting gas surging up with trouble in the Red Sea, blah blah blah.  but then- ended it with- go ahead and float- so who knows.  

Ah yes, the first rule of fortune cookie writing is to allude to two opposite outcomes so your predictions are never wrong.  

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13385

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SIAP. Late to the party but interesting CNN article on how the capital gains tax amounts on house sales, set in the 90s, is a factor in people not selling.

I dislike how Congress continually sets amount or rates but refuses to tie them to CPI or something to account for the future value of money.

I'm single and have lived in my home for 20 years. Luckily I would realize a fairly nice profit if I sold but since I've surpassed 250K in profit, I would have to share my profit with the govt. It's ridiculous that this threshold was set in the 90s and hasn't changed. No CR since this is on both sides. 

While I would love to see zero capital gains tax on primary homes, I can live with capital gains tax. 250K or 500K is just too low today.

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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40 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Estimated Q1 what?  What are you saying here- I'm apparently super dense today...

Treasury quarterly refunding announcement 

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2054

Quote
  • During the January – March 2024 quarter, Treasury expects to borrow $760 billion in privately-held net marketable debt, assuming an end-of-March cash balance of $750 billion.[2] The borrowing estimate is $55 billion lower than announced in October 2023, largely due to projections of higher net fiscal flows and a higher beginning of quarter cash balance.[3]

Less borrowing by treasury than previous estimate. Which is good news for stocks and MBS

Edited by Neonmoon
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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3785

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On 1/29/2024 at 9:22 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Down .05 already. Feel like this is gonna be a solid week. Wouldn’t mind being below 4.00 by EOM Wednesday 

Another .03 down but .05 since yesterday to 4.05. Tomorrow is the big day with Powell talking 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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Mbs market up 35 points right now. Lousy ADP jobs report (not the usual market mover but whatever) but Fed talking today. It could get even better or it could disappear this afternoon. 
Also- have a refi inducement with my biggest lender1 100 basis point improvement on anyone doing a rate term. 

If you bought in the last 18 months call me- or check out the website at www.mortgagesbygabe.com. Or PM. Or call me at 832-557-1095. 

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UTPhil2006

UTPhil2006 3785

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26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:


Also- have a refi inducement with my biggest lender1 100 basis point improvement on anyone doing a rate term. 

Yep had a feeling UWM was coming out with this. No waiting if you weren’t with UWM. One year if you were for those wondering. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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50 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Weird

Rate cut was pushed back to May in past week, but looked this morning, and it's back to March today. Everyone is still placing their bets

image.png.2e76c9576a46b9fdfd4e1888ab4ece42.png

 

 

That sort of scares me. I don’t think we are getting one in March and I think there’s going to be a temper tantrum over that. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Just had a huge loan bail thanks to today’s good news. Fuck my life 

 

I always root for the market not to improve until after the closings are in. Doesn't stay that way often.  Sucks to hear man- sorry about that.  Anyone you can return the favor to and hit up someone that might have gone with someone else?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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Welp- 

Looks like the market didn't like what ole Bernake had to say?  From 33 up before he started talking to up 14.  Still- that's in the green every day this week so far. We aren't running away and hiding, we are still 6/10ths below this time last year, but it certainly has been worse and not all that long ago. 

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hornian

hornian 5182

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34 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Welp- 

Looks like the market didn't like what ole Bernake had to say?  From 33 up before he started talking to up 14.  Still- that's in the green every day this week so far. We aren't running away and hiding, we are still 6/10ths below this time last year, but it certainly has been worse and not all that long ago. 

Freudian slip or joke I don't get?

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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Habib says lock in front of the jobs report. He says the job market is soft and that’s why everyone is expecting a low and shitty number, but they are going to fuck with the number and make shit up because January is rife for fuckery. He used more technical language but that’s what he said basically- they are expecting a big number above expectations and it to be nonsense basically. 
all other signs point toward an improving MBS Market. 
Also will be interesting to see if we get downward revision to the numbers for like the 14th out of last 15th, or if we get a double shot of bigger number than expected plus positive revisions. 
keep in mind the ADP report came in very soft, challenger job report is way up (like 100k layoffs when they expected 40k) so anything calling for a jobs number to be big tomorrow is superstition or believe the numbers (especially as they pertain to January) can’t be trusted. 
yes- it’s the $9.95 of the financial world. 

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Wulaw Horn

Wulaw Horn 18921

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353k jons added. Completely and totally at odds (like different planet) from ADP and challenger. Habib had that one right. Expectations were 150. 
revisions were higher to previous months report. 2X now in 14 months. New trend? Or once a 7 month anamoly like Hailey’s comment (last one revised higher was last summer- so at midpoint of this stretch). 

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Neonmoon

Neonmoon 38127

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

353k jons added. Completely and totally at odds (like different planet) from ADP and challenger. Habib had that one right. Expectations were 150. 
revisions were higher to previous months report. 2X now in 14 months. New trend? Or once a 7 month anamoly like Hailey’s comment (last one revised higher was last summer- so at midpoint of this stretch). 

They just wanted to tamper the good week. assholes. 

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