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Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

353k jons added. Completely and totally at odds (like different planet) from ADP and challenger. Habib had that one right. Expectations were 150. 
revisions were higher to previous months report. 2X now in 14 months. New trend? Or once a 7 month anamoly like Hailey’s comment (last one revised higher was last summer- so at midpoint of this stretch). 

It's January and every company has their budget for the year. Hiring should be high. Check last January. That's why I was being a haughty little bitch in the last post.

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Whoever projected 150/180 was..

image.gif.0082bb417bc53b835f0cf51bcebddc68.gif

Seriously, who is the this forecaster. They are not good at their job

edit: all gains this week wiped out

Edited by Neonmoon
Posted
3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Seriously, who is the this forecaster. They are not good at their job

edit: all gains this week wiped out

You track this weekly better than me- I was thinking we were dead on 100 to start the week- is that right?  SO, if it ended where we are now it would be up like 5 bips for the week or something?

Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You track this weekly better than me- I was thinking we were dead on 100 to start the week- is that right?  SO, if it ended where we are now it would be up like 5 bips for the week or something?

Basically. You could argue we are up 5 or flat depending on the starting and ending point. It was a good week. Rates dipped back to low 6s but now back to high 6s. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Basically. You could argue we are up 5 or flat depending on the starting and ending point. It was a good week. Rates dipped back to low 6s but now back to high 6s. 

Yup on the whole it wasn’t bad from a macro week view. But the little 12 hour tease of 6 week lows to where they should be and then being wiped out in one fell swoop was the kick in the nads. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
22 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

It's January and every company has their budget for the year. Hiring should be high. Check last January. That's why I was being a haughty little bitch in the last post.

Per BLS

 

February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs and 27.020 million part-time jobs

January 2024 the US had 133.1 million full-time jobs and 27.890 million part-time jobs
 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Per BLS

 

February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs and 27.020 million part-time jobs

January 2024 the US had 133.1 million full-time jobs and 27.890 million part-time jobs
 

 

Full-time jobs recovered much quicker than part-time post COVID. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted

I wonder how comm real burning affects mortgage bonds this year

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bracing-commercial-real-estate-reckoning-mcgeever-2024-02-01/

Quote

According to Goldman Sachs, some $1.2 trillion of commercial mortgages are scheduled to mature this year and next. That's almost a quarter of all outstanding commercial mortgages, and the highest recorded level going back to 2008. The biggest single holder are banks with a 40% share.

 

Posted
1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

We haven’t talked about this but it’s fundamental, in my opinion, to the continuing reduction in A paper Jumbo programs in the correspondent space.  
 

Jumbo rates already blow now. No bueno 

Posted

So I’ve literally been knocking on doors the last couple weeks asking people if they want refinance (targeted FHa and VA loans with interest rates over 6.5 and balance of at least 400k).  Got 5 people responded and no interest rates for them that makes sense right now. Good times. 

  • Rage+1 2
Posted
33 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And now we are down 44 points on the day. Guess we aren’t getting the rally I was hoping for. 
Ever since ishbia came out with his 100 point incentive we are down like 100 points. 

I blame Devin Booker 

  • Haha 1
Posted
11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I had my best month last month. Top 20 in company. Lost 3 loans this month so far because I’m not allowed to have nice things. Powell can suck a dick. 

Congrats on best month ever and top 20 in your company. That’s awesome man. How long have you been at it in the industry? 

Posted
26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Will open about 4.27

Not freaking great. Inflation came in hotter than expectations. Ugh. Nothing positive going on. We are down like 150 bips since Ishbia did his refi 100 program. 
boooooooooo. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not freaking great. Inflation came in hotter than expectations. Ugh. Nothing positive going on. We are down like 150 bips since Ishbia did his refi 100 program. 
boooooooooo. 

Ha literally texted that to Thad saying UWMs 100bps program had effectively been wiped out. Yeah it still exists but now it’s just where we were a week ago 

Posted
15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Client: Yay I got under contract!!

Me: Things you could have brought to my attention YESTERDAY

I just hope it gets better in next week or so, or my advice to float will fuck me 

Posted
1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I just hope it gets better in next week or so, or my advice to float will fuck me 

 

50 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I think it’s the right advice 

 

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

I suggested to someone we float this morning so at least we'll all be impoverished together. 

Checking in with 5 clients floating right now. Also- I had 11 guys lined up to refinance after knocking on doors and the like when the market got there (it was there for one day after Ishbia came out with the Refi 100 program.  So, uh, yeah, feels like I'm never closing another one again. 

I'd have locked them all but we had over 45 days on 4 of the 5 and a 60 day lock is just such a beatdown.  As long as it doesn't run directly away from you and never get better you are better letting it ride. It will get better, right?

The 5th one is within a dollar of qualifying if they take the worst case look at the file so he needs a certain rate- but that's gonna cost him more than he wants. If they take a best case look at the file I can move him up 2 or 3/8ths of a point, he won't owe any points and we will just be half way to the refinance we were already planning for first of next year, so- it's not all bad, but it's got the potential to be really fucking bad if we keep getting reprices and losing 60 points in a day or 70 over a 2 day period.  

Fuck everything associated with this last 10 days. Such a tease. Looked like things were going to get markedly better. It's not as bleak as last fall, but it's certainly not what you want going into the selling season. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

As long as it doesn't run directly away from you and never get better you are better letting it ride. It will get better, right?

That's the hope and a prayer

And yes, contract was over 45 days. Might as well pin a shopping tag on the fucking thing. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Haha 1
Posted
58 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

That's the hope and a prayer

And yes, contract was over 45 days. Might as well pin a shopping tag on the fucking thing. 

Yep. As soon as you lock it they are talking to everyone else every time the market improves even a hair. 

Posted
5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 50 now.  2nd reprice for the worse, same song, different verse, a little bit louder and a little bit worse.  

Haha, when I opened up my computer this morning and saw we were only down by 25 I exhaled a little.  This later reprice was the point at which I started cursing.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Haha, when I opened up my computer this morning and saw we were only down by 25 I exhaled a little.  This later reprice was the point at which I started cursing.  

Got 3 reprices at UwM for the worse today. 
there was a brief moment (for like 10 minutes) where mbs was reporting -5 for the day. This was after we opened up like 28 or 36 points down.  I was like- wow- maybe the headline numbers were bullshit and the market digested the reports and it wasn’t that bad. Then- as I was thinking that thought- it bounced to down 40. I was like- my bet is reporting glitch. 

Posted

Actual conversation with my 8 year old today on the way to school. 
text- ding- 8:01

Her- daddy where is the market 

me- up one

her- that’s a lot better than down 63 yesterday. 
me- yeah- I guess

her thinking thinking thinking- well, I guess in 9 weeks we will get it all back. 
me- thanks darling. 

  • Like 1
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Get her into sabremetrics or something way less heartbreaking. 

Indeed. 
my son went out door knocking with me on Saturday. We knocked on 25 doors. He told me “dad- I think when I get a job I want to get paid for sure if I go to work- not only if things go well.”

I told him thats probably a fair point depending upon personality type and other stuff. 

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Posted
7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

PPI came in hot as fucK

we going back up fast

I hate you. You ruined my surprise I would have gotten 6 minutes from now when I got my text. 
MBS down 33 bips so far. 6% coupon at 100.16. Was at almost 102 only a couple short weeks ago. 
10 year (shout out to Phil) at 4.31. Twas at 3.8 not long ago. 
Not great Bob, not great. 
Consumer spending down, credit cards at all time highs, more likely than not inflation has to come down I would think, but who the fuck knows. 

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