All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[StassneyHorn 6499]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

353k jons added. Completely and totally at odds (like different planet) from ADP and challenger. Habib had that one right. Expectations were 150. 
revisions were higher to previous months report. 2X now in 14 months. New trend? Or once a 7 month anamoly like Hailey’s comment (last one revised higher was last summer- so at midpoint of this stretch). 

It's January and every company has their budget for the year. Hiring should be high. Check last January. That's why I was being a haughty little bitch in the last post.

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

5 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Wulaw, FYI:

 

I literally pointed out the revision upward in my post. Like, first paragraph.

[Storm the Field 5266]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I literally pointed out the revision upward in my post. Like, first paragraph.

Tweet is about the general trend in revisions, not limited to this report.

[StassneyHorn 6499]

So we're all going to start saying 2 of the last 6 months had upwards revisions? We wouldn't want to misrepresent anything, right?

[Neonmoon 38127]

3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Whoever projected 150/180 was..

Seriously, who is the this forecaster. They are not good at their job

edit: all gains this week wiped out

Edited February 2 by Neonmoon

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

Seriously, who is the this forecaster. They are not good at their job

edit: all gains this week wiped out

You track this weekly better than me- I was thinking we were dead on 100 to start the week- is that right?  SO, if it ended where we are now it would be up like 5 bips for the week or something?

[Neonmoon 38127]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

You track this weekly better than me- I was thinking we were dead on 100 to start the week- is that right?  SO, if it ended where we are now it would be up like 5 bips for the week or something?

Basically. You could argue we are up 5 or flat depending on the starting and ending point. It was a good week. Rates dipped back to low 6s but now back to high 6s. 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Basically. You could argue we are up 5 or flat depending on the starting and ending point. It was a good week. Rates dipped back to low 6s but now back to high 6s. 

Yup on the whole it wasn’t bad from a macro week view. But the little 12 hour tease of 6 week lows to where they should be and then being wiped out in one fell swoop was the kick in the nads. 

[ChickenSandwich 9783]

22 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

It's January and every company has their budget for the year. Hiring should be high. Check last January. That's why I was being a haughty little bitch in the last post.

Per BLS

 

February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs and 27.020 million part-time jobs

January 2024 the US had 133.1 million full-time jobs and 27.890 million part-time jobs
 

 

[Storm the Field 5266]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Per BLS

 

February 2023 the US had 133.2 million full-time jobs and 27.020 million part-time jobs

January 2024 the US had 133.1 million full-time jobs and 27.890 million part-time jobs
 

 

Full-time jobs recovered much quicker than part-time post COVID. 

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

I wonder how comm real burning affects mortgage bonds this year

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bracing-commercial-real-estate-reckoning-mcgeever-2024-02-01/

Quote

According to Goldman Sachs, some $1.2 trillion of commercial mortgages are scheduled to mature this year and next. That's almost a quarter of all outstanding commercial mortgages, and the highest recorded level going back to 2008. The biggest single holder are banks with a 40% share.

 

[LCHorn 2570]

13 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I wonder how comm real burning affects mortgage bonds this year

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bracing-commercial-real-estate-reckoning-mcgeever-2024-02-01/

 

We haven’t talked about this but it’s fundamental, in my opinion, to the continuing reduction in A paper Jumbo programs in the correspondent space.  
 

[Neonmoon 38127]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

We haven’t talked about this but it’s fundamental, in my opinion, to the continuing reduction in A paper Jumbo programs in the correspondent space.  
 

Jumbo rates already blow now. No bueno 

[NoRagrets 1121]

https://www.connectcre.com/stories/mortgage-rates-expected-to-drop-to-5-5-in-2024/?utm_campaign=Connect CRE News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=292568994&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_vMgp5NNsr5CWjBp-TGewyRHGI1bLIZlDGb83xUc1eBogFwdjwI3aznsQupKyE-NcLiM16AByKki2W0iPRDog45Hs1UINo8heUdJR8OS0gjVoKvaM&utm_content=292568994&utm_source=hs_email

That didn’t embed well

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

Down 28. Worst point of the year right now I believe. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

19 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 28. Worst point of the year right now I believe. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

So I’ve literally been knocking on doors the last couple weeks asking people if they want refinance (targeted FHa and VA loans with interest rates over 6.5 and balance of at least 400k).  Got 5 people responded and no interest rates for them that makes sense right now. Good times. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

And now we are down 44 points on the day. Guess we aren’t getting the rally I was hoping for. 
Ever since ishbia came out with his 100 point incentive we are down like 100 points. 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

33 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

And now we are down 44 points on the day. Guess we aren’t getting the rally I was hoping for. 
Ever since ishbia came out with his 100 point incentive we are down like 100 points. 

I blame Devin Booker 

[Neonmoon 38127]

It even looks like a frowny face

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

My rankings this morning. Month to date first- year to date second 

 

[Neonmoon 38127]

I had my best month last month. Top 20 in company. Lost 3 loans this month so far because I’m not allowed to have nice things. Powell can suck a dick. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

11 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I had my best month last month. Top 20 in company. Lost 3 loans this month so far because I’m not allowed to have nice things. Powell can suck a dick. 

Congrats on best month ever and top 20 in your company. That’s awesome man. How long have you been at it in the industry? 

[Neonmoon 38127]

41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Congrats on best month ever and top 20 in your company. That’s awesome man. How long have you been at it in the industry? 

3 years

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

12 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

3 years

Good stuff man. Keep it up. 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

3 years

Ah so your first market crash 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

Another big jump coming this morning. 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

On 2/1/2024 at 9:42 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Down another .08 to 3.88 so far today. 

Will open about 4.27

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Will open about 4.27

Not freaking great. Inflation came in hotter than expectations. Ugh. Nothing positive going on. We are down like 150 bips since Ishbia did his refi 100 program. 
boooooooooo. 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not freaking great. Inflation came in hotter than expectations. Ugh. Nothing positive going on. We are down like 150 bips since Ishbia did his refi 100 program. 
boooooooooo. 

Ha literally texted that to Thad saying UWMs 100bps program had effectively been wiped out. Yeah it still exists but now it’s just where we were a week ago 

[Neonmoon 38127]

Higher for longer

we are fucked

[Neonmoon 38127]

Client: Yay I got under contract!!

Me: Things you could have brought to my attention YESTERDAY

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

Down 50 now.  2nd reprice for the worse, same song, different verse, a little bit louder and a little bit worse.  

Edited February 13 by Wulaw Horn

[Neonmoon 38127]

15 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Client: Yay I got under contract!!

Me: Things you could have brought to my attention YESTERDAY

I just hope it gets better in next week or so, or my advice to float will fuck me 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

14 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I just hope it gets better in next week or so, or my advice to float will fuck me 

I think it’s the right advice 

[LCHorn 2570]

I suggested to someone we float this morning so at least we'll all be impoverished together. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

I just hope it gets better in next week or so, or my advice to float will fuck me 

 

50 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I think it’s the right advice 

 

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

I suggested to someone we float this morning so at least we'll all be impoverished together. 

Checking in with 5 clients floating right now. Also- I had 11 guys lined up to refinance after knocking on doors and the like when the market got there (it was there for one day after Ishbia came out with the Refi 100 program.  So, uh, yeah, feels like I'm never closing another one again. 

I'd have locked them all but we had over 45 days on 4 of the 5 and a 60 day lock is just such a beatdown.  As long as it doesn't run directly away from you and never get better you are better letting it ride. It will get better, right?

The 5th one is within a dollar of qualifying if they take the worst case look at the file so he needs a certain rate- but that's gonna cost him more than he wants. If they take a best case look at the file I can move him up 2 or 3/8ths of a point, he won't owe any points and we will just be half way to the refinance we were already planning for first of next year, so- it's not all bad, but it's got the potential to be really fucking bad if we keep getting reprices and losing 60 points in a day or 70 over a 2 day period.  

Fuck everything associated with this last 10 days. Such a tease. Looked like things were going to get markedly better. It's not as bleak as last fall, but it's certainly not what you want going into the selling season. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

As long as it doesn't run directly away from you and never get better you are better letting it ride. It will get better, right?

That's the hope and a prayer

And yes, contract was over 45 days. Might as well pin a shopping tag on the fucking thing. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

58 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

That's the hope and a prayer

And yes, contract was over 45 days. Might as well pin a shopping tag on the fucking thing. 

Yep. As soon as you lock it they are talking to everyone else every time the market improves even a hair. 

[LCHorn 2570]

5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Down 50 now.  2nd reprice for the worse, same song, different verse, a little bit louder and a little bit worse.  

Haha, when I opened up my computer this morning and saw we were only down by 25 I exhaled a little.  This later reprice was the point at which I started cursing.  

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Haha, when I opened up my computer this morning and saw we were only down by 25 I exhaled a little.  This later reprice was the point at which I started cursing.  

Got 3 reprices at UwM for the worse today. 
there was a brief moment (for like 10 minutes) where mbs was reporting -5 for the day. This was after we opened up like 28 or 36 points down.  I was like- wow- maybe the headline numbers were bullshit and the market digested the reports and it wasn’t that bad. Then- as I was thinking that thought- it bounced to down 40. I was like- my bet is reporting glitch. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

Actual conversation with my 8 year old today on the way to school. 
text- ding- 8:01

Her- daddy where is the market 

me- up one

her- that’s a lot better than down 63 yesterday. 
me- yeah- I guess

her thinking thinking thinking- well, I guess in 9 weeks we will get it all back. 
me- thanks darling. 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

Get her into sabremetrics or something way less heartbreaking. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Get her into sabremetrics or something way less heartbreaking. 

Indeed. 
my son went out door knocking with me on Saturday. We knocked on 25 doors. He told me “dad- I think when I get a job I want to get paid for sure if I go to work- not only if things go well.”

I told him thats probably a fair point depending upon personality type and other stuff. 

Edited February 14 by Wulaw Horn

[Neonmoon 38127]

Any realtors using this?

Seems like a cool new platform to make the offer situation more transparent

https://www.finaloffer.com/how-it-works

 

 

[UTPhil2006 3785]

Retail sales with a big miss, down .05 to start. Baby steps. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

Now down only 22 bips on the week!  Only 115 or something like that since we got the jobs report that crushed 2 weeks ago tomorrow. 
Baby steps is right. 

[Neonmoon 38127]

PPI came in hot as fucK

we going back up fast

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

7 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

PPI came in hot as fucK

we going back up fast

I hate you. You ruined my surprise I would have gotten 6 minutes from now when I got my text. 
MBS down 33 bips so far. 6% coupon at 100.16. Was at almost 102 only a couple short weeks ago. 
10 year (shout out to Phil) at 4.31. Twas at 3.8 not long ago. 
Not great Bob, not great. 
Consumer spending down, credit cards at all time highs, more likely than not inflation has to come down I would think, but who the fuck knows. 

[Wulaw Horn 18921]

Interesting- 0.6% increase in services against a 0.2% drop in price of goods. I have a couple theories on that which I might flesh out later. Really just WAG’s.