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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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Clearly you weren't thinking outside the box enough, Gil: "What makes this home unique is the zoning that allows for a spa, a group home, a retirement home, drug rehab....". Man, real estate listings in California are wild.

I popped in this morning to see Wulaw's reaction to the jobs report--I would have paid good money to be there when he first heard the news and exclaimed something along the lines of, "M*********er! I tried telling those Surly slapdicks it was all bulls**t!"....

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2 hours ago, smoothlonghorn said:

Clearly you weren't thinking outside the box enough, Gil: "What makes this home unique is the zoning that allows for a spa, a group home, a retirement home, drug rehab....". Man, real estate listings in California are wild.

I popped in this morning to see Wulaw's reaction to the jobs report--I would have paid good money to be there when he first heard the news and exclaimed something along the lines of, "M*********er! I tried telling those Surly slapdicks it was all bulls**t!"....

My wife got to see me do the told you so dance. 
she’s always like “well, you and Habib say it’s all bull shit but my take on the economy is…” and away she goes until I tell her to go make me a sandwich. 

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Dear @Wulaw Horn (and other SMEs):

Can pls you help me ballpark what a "competitive" closing cost/fees package would look in today's climate for a **VA IRRL** Re-Fi (with no cash-out)?  Call it a $400k loan amount for sake of discussion.

I recall rule of thumb being rate improvement of >1% usually makes sense (espec if you intend to stay in house long-term), but that VA IRRL's are often good bit cheaper to obtain....therefore the ROI/break-even can occur closer to 0.5-0.75%?  

I'm sitting at 5.625% right now, so may not have a slam-dunk opportunity for quite a while longer (or maybe ever?)...but still would be nice to have a "target range" established in case things fall my way rate-wise (and overall economy doesn't unravel in the process).  Thanks as always.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Muny_Tex said:

Dear @Wulaw Horn (and other SMEs):

Can pls you help me ballpark what a "competitive" closing cost/fees package would look in today's climate for a **VA IRRL** Re-Fi (with no cash-out)?  Call it a $400k loan amount for sake of discussion.

I recall rule of thumb being rate improvement of >1% usually makes sense (espec if you intend to stay in house long-term), but that VA IRRL's are often good bit cheaper to obtain....therefore the ROI/break-even can occur closer to 0.5-0.75%?  

I'm sitting at 5.625% right now, so may not have a slam-dunk opportunity for quite a while longer (or maybe ever?)...but still would be nice to have a "target range" established in case things fall my way rate-wise (and overall economy doesn't unravel in the process).  Thanks as always.

 

 

This is all presumptive because the rates aren’t there (and might not be for awhile), but you should have a goal of the lender paying for all of the closing costs.  It’ll reduce your rate improvement (those fees have to get paid from somewhere) but it’ll position you better for subsequent refinance if rates continue to fall.  

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3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

This is all presumptive because the rates aren’t there (and might not be for awhile), but you should have a goal of the lender paying for all of the closing costs.  It’ll reduce your rate improvement (those fees have to get paid from somewhere) but it’ll position you better for subsequent refinance if rates continue to fall.  

This is what I'm telling everyone. If the rate started with a 4 I wouldn't be saying that, but with a 5 or a 6 in the front of it you just have to figure you are going to revisit again sometime sooner rather than later.  

If not completely free then make sure the costs pay for themselves with 7 months (that's how long before you can do it again).

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7 hours ago, smoothlonghorn said:

Clearly you weren't thinking outside the box enough, Gil: "What makes this home unique is the zoning that allows for a spa, a group home, a retirement home, drug rehab....". Man, real estate listings in California are wild.

I popped in this morning to see Wulaw's reaction to the jobs report--I would have paid good money to be there when he first heard the news and exclaimed something along the lines of, "M*********er! I tried telling those Surly slapdicks it was all bulls**t!"....

Shit ton of money in rehabs

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On 8/21/2024 at 6:26 PM, Gil Bang said:

hey y'all.  check out this ugly piece of shit.  I laughed when this ugly mofo got listed, and now it's pending. 

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Bonsall/4438-Via-de-los-Cepillos-92003/home/3131260

 

That place is an abomination.  Worse yet, it was recently remodeled.  I cannot imagine how bad it looked before.

Some other yellow (or red) flags: no closeups of any of the exterior amenities (pool, tennis court?) and that two of its major selling features: zoned agriculture and $3.7mm worth of macadamia trees.  Regardless: sold :)

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2 hours ago, boilerhorn said:

That place is an abomination.  Worse yet, it was recently remodeled.  I cannot imagine how bad it looked before.

Some other yellow (or red) flags: no closeups of any of the exterior amenities (pool, tennis court?) and that two of its major selling features: zoned agriculture and $3.7mm worth of macadamia trees.  Regardless: sold :)

Well  after glancing at the design, it is missing one thing I expected to see.

spacer.png

 

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Wasn't sure if better for inflation thread or real estate. 

Quote

 

 The Justice Department and attorneys general from eight states filed a lawsuit Friday alleging a Dallas company, RealPage, collected sensitive information from landlords nationwide that allegedly made it easier for them to coordinate and raise prices for millions of renters nationwide.

RealPage provides software to landlords to help manage 16 million rental units nationwide, largely in the Sun Belt and South. The federal lawsuit filed in North Carolina alleges RealPage holds a monopoly in what is called "revenue management software" for landlords because the company controls 80% of the market nationwide.

The lawsuit contends that by sharing sensitive information from landlords about rents, leases and vacancy rates, RealPage helps them collude to avoid competition and raise prices. Without RealPage’s information and recommendations about the rents that competitors are charging and the vacancies that are available, landlords are able to charge higher prices or avoid offering concessions such as a month without rent, according to the lawsuit.

 

In today's lesson of "things you definitely should not put in writing"

Quote

The lawsuit also quoted a landlord describing RealPage’s software. “I always liked this product because your algorithm uses proprietary data from other subscribers to suggests rent and term,” the landlord said. “That’s classic price fixing.”

Oops.

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3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Mauna Loa better watchout

 

here comes Surly Nuts.  Who’s with me?!

image.jpeg.582654f11ee47d08bc79b6179c4eca8d.jpeg

 

Blazing Saddles GIF by WTEDRadio

My College GF's dormmate was a member of the Mauna Loa family.  She had an eating disorder.  Girl was kinda cute, but really fucked up.  From Hilo HI

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PSA - remind your customers that when moving, they should always double check their previous residence’s insurance policies are cancelled.

I know it’s obvious but I apparently I did not follow up, and now I’m waiting for USAA and TWIA to issue refund checks back to my closing date.

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On 8/8/2024 at 6:12 PM, StassneyHorn said:


“Do I look like I could fit in at a billionaire’s party?”

I’ve made a few friends in San Diego who are boat captains (nbd, highly recommend) and one is currently at Anthony Hsieh’s (Loan Depot founder/Bad Company yachtsman) Newport Beach house for a big ass party.

You think he has a better chance of actually talking to him by saying he’s a charter captain or pretend to know shit about mortgages? 

 

Talk fishing is how you get to him, I would guess.  He seems like mortgages are something he does so he can have his fishing fleet and fish all over the world. I would take @justhookit with me to this party if I really wanted to talk to Anthony.

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43 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Talk fishing is how you get to him, I would guess.  He seems like mortgages are something he does so he can have his fishing fleet and fish all over the world. I would take @justhookit with me to this party if I really wanted to talk to Anthony.

Yup, dude is fixated on fishing, particularly very large marlin and fishing for surface swordfish. Buddy of mine fished with him a few months ago. ESPN is filming an E60 show on them next month. Hopefully it’s interesting because the content that Bad Comaony is putting out right now on their social media is unwatchably boring even for me. And that’s coming from a guy that can stare at baits and teasers for hours on end even if there is no action.

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21 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Mom moving to assisted living. Decent 3/2 in a good neighborhood in Austin area. Rent probably $2800 on maybe $1000 taxes/insurance. Sale would net her $500k (maybe as low as $450k). Sell or rent, and hope prices go back up another $100k?

What's her assisted living monthly cost, and do you anticipate her level of care increasing significantly soon? We faced the same decision for my grandmother last year (although her neighborhood near Lamar and Rundberg wouldnt entice the best renters) and decided to sell, because we didn't have enough cash on hand to feel comfortable with rolling the dice on renting and the tenant uncertainty. In a past life my grandma owned a long-gone apartment complex near Airport and Lamar and she had ZERO interest in dealing with that in any sort of way lol. 

If you've got the flexibility and stomach to wait, then it's really just a question if you think home prices will jump 20% in the next year in her area

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18 hours ago, CleverNickname said:

Mom moving to assisted living. Decent 3/2 in a good neighborhood in Austin area. Rent probably $2800 on maybe $1000 taxes/insurance. Sale would net her $500k (maybe as low as $450k). Sell or rent, and hope prices go back up another $100k?

I am in a similar situation, and going to try a 30+ day furnished rental, and see how that works.  Or sell. It flooded and remodel is underway which will really update the place.

1) Are you the sole decision maker?  Siblings can make decisions tougher/complicated.

2) Would you be interesting in continuing to rent it after you Mom passes?

3) How much cash into the place to get it ready to rent?

4) Would you, or a family member ever want to live there?

5) Does the potential $1800 in income, matter extending the financial solvency of her estate/ contributing to her Assisted Living Bill?

6) How much time will it rob from your life?

That's sort of where my list is.  For me if we can make the 30+ day furnished work, then I my sister and I, can also use the Lakehouse occasionally. OR that's the thought at least right now.  

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@CleverNickname I think you are overlooking the pummelfucking you will receive from TCAD in exchange for turning a homestead + over-65 exempted property into a rental....and if the market starts to surge up again, that's only going to worsen.

That said, I don't think you can justify any expectation of ~20% price recovery in foreseeable future given Austin is one of the softest markets in the country right now.  I believe there has been a substantial downward pressure on the rental market as well.  Yes interest rates will likely improve, but the corresponding increase in supply does not bode well for incumbent owners.

The pitfalls of land-lording are also well-documented on this thread; and even "good tenants" do not make anyone immune to plumbing, HVAC, or other maintenance issues that are most common on older homes.  Not to mention ANY vacancy period beyond 1 month is going to rapidly diminish your margins relative to the alternatives.

Conversely, you can still get close to 5% risk-free in many treasury/CD funds...which generates close to $2k/mo in perpetuity if you throw $450K+ in there...which is far superior to the downside risks IMO.

If the home was in an up-and-coming market (appreciation play) or you had a personal longterm use-case (e.g. give to kids as starter home, or to retire there) then it's a very different calculus.  But that doesn't seem to be the case, and transitioning grammy into assisted living is probably gonna be no small endeavor on its own....seems ill-advised to add more complexity/asspain to that equation that may not even provide any incremental $$.

 

 

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4 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Austin home rents haven't seemed to keep up with home purchase prices

Yup.  None of the 3/2 ranches in NW austin selling for $500k are garnering $5k/mo rents (using the fairly common 1% rent rule).

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40 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Yup.  None of the 3/2 ranches in NW austin selling for $500k are garnering $5k/mo rents (using the fairly common 1% rent rule).

That silly rule hasn’t been applicable in Austin since the 90’s.  

 

5 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Austin home rents haven't seemed to keep up with home purchase prices

Obviously anecdotal, but we increased rent on our properties (all SFR) in 22 and maintained it on 23 and 24 renewals (despite slack demand in the resale market and LOTS of apartments coming available).  

 

5 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

That said, I don't think you can justify any expectation of ~20% price recovery in foreseeable future given Austin is one of the softest markets in the country right now. 

Let’s not confuse Austin’s balanced market for one of the softest in the country.  If you believe that then I have a couple of neighborhoods in Detroit to sell you….

 

Realtors are all in mourning because transactions are way down and their job has gotten a lot harder.  That said, good ones are still making lots of money.  

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50 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

wrote my first offer under the new rules yesterday.  It's a small deal, but the client didn't balk when I asked her to sign the rep agreement paying me 2.5%

Yeah we’ve had little to no pushback on anything so far. We generally have a solid discussion on it in the initial conversation and the who/what/why of it all as well. Each situation is different though 

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Mr. Cooper can eat a dick. I would put everything they send me into spam except I need to know if there is an important issue with my mortgage account.

While we’re at it, ULM can eat a dick for selling my paper to Mr. Cooper.

Interestingly, they are also one of my team’s biggest customers - and I’ve enjoyed telling my teammates about what I was told about the name Mr. Cooper being a focus-group name that would prevent people from being angry at a corporation.

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Here is how I would suggest anyone think about the rental market in Austin. Home prices are off their peak by quite a bit, but we haven’t even entered a recession since 2009. The Austin market could get hit hard by a recession because it is a tech driven market these days and a lot of the employment here is as a secondary location to another location. In recessions, secondary locations get hit first and hard.

However, long-term Austin will be a winning real estate market. That tech presence will drive significant growth. 

Markets that don’t have good rental cash flow must rely on home appreciation for the long term gains. And right now most rentals are not covering costs+the value of embedded equity. That means as prices drop, the negative or lower cash flow gets worse, and owners must tough out a time period of poor cash flow.  Eventually, prices will turn and money can be made on the appreciation. One thing that will help on prices in the near term are the rate cuts. So there is some upside potential too.

TLDR: There is more downside home price risk right now due to potential recession than upside benefit from a rate cut. So rental decisions should be made in the context of holding for at least 5 if not 10 years. If you are just thinking about doing it for 1-2 years, your expected value is likely negative due to the recession risk. 

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22 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

Mr. Cooper can eat a dick. I would put everything they send me into spam except I need to know if there is an important issue with my mortgage account.

While we’re at it, ULM can eat a dick for selling my paper to Mr. Cooper.

Interestingly, they are also one of my team’s biggest customers - and I’ve enjoyed telling my teammates about what I was told about the name Mr. Cooper being a focus-group name that would prevent people from being angry at a corporation.

They are truly awful.  
So- we can pay an extra 30 basis points and they will promise not to sell your loan for 5 years when we hit it again in December in all likelihood.  That's 30 to the fee not the rate- so works out to 1/8 or so in all likelihood on the rate. 

New-ish program.  Almost nobody wants that, you have to well and truly hate servicers to choose that option...but, it's now there. 

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28 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:

Mr. Cooper can eat a dick. I would put everything they send me into spam except I need to know if there is an important issue with my mortgage account.

While we’re at it, ULM can eat a dick for selling my paper to Mr. Cooper.

Interestingly, they are also one of my team’s biggest customers - and I’ve enjoyed telling my teammates about what I was told about the name Mr. Cooper being a focus-group name that would prevent people from being angry at a corporation.

What did Louisiana Monroe do to you?

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Mr. Cooper bought my brothers mortgage.  Couldn’t process a payment for months and then sent threats about foreclosure due to lack of payment.  Complete clusterfuck that actually caused him a bunch of stress in no small part due to his wife opening the foreclosure letter first.

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3 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Yeah we’ve had little to no pushback on anything so far. We generally have a solid discussion on it in the initial conversation and the who/what/why of it all as well. Each situation is different though 

Forgive me is these have been answered above.

 

Are buyers agent fees being added to loan amount?  
 

Are sellers agents reducing rates, or making out in the short term?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Here is how I would suggest anyone think about the rental market in Austin. Home prices are off their peak by quite a bit, but we haven’t even entered a recession since 2009. The Austin market could get hit hard by a recession because it is a tech driven market these days and a lot of the employment here is as a secondary location to another location. In recessions, secondary locations get hit first and hard.

I'm going to pick some nits with this, but I don't personally feel comfortable making market predictions using historical norms as my basis, particularly for the technology companies and their employees. 

That said, let me play devil's advocate.  The fact that central Texas (and the state) has made commitments to manufacturing might mean that even a short national recession doesn't significantly impact local employment (in other words, the momentum to staff up these facilities and the smaller firms supplying them will continue to generate new jobs).  Obviously most of this is east of Austin so it's not helping Lakeway homeowner's sell the Lake Travis living experience. 

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Markets that don’t have good rental cash flow must rely on home appreciation for the long term gains. And right now most rentals are not covering costs+the value of embedded equity. That means as prices drop, the negative or lower cash flow gets worse, and owners must tough out a time period of poor cash flow.  Eventually, prices will turn and money can be made on the appreciation.

I'm not entirely sure of your point in regards to rental cash flow.  Are you saying that new investment buyers in this market aren't cash-flowing?  Pretty much all of the investment portfolios I've reviewed in which the purchase was made pre-'21 are cash-flowing, sometimes a lot.  As far as price drops, I'm just not seeing it in anything under $400K and I think there's sufficient demand from owner-occupants in the $400K-$600K range that prices have been sticky.  Anything more expensive than that purchased for pure investment has been mostly confined to short-term rentals. 

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8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Forgive me is these have been answered above.

 

Are buyers agent fees being added to loan amount?  
 

Are sellers agents reducing rates, or making out in the short term?

 

 

Just depends what the agreement is in place between the parties. Everything has been going chalk so far for us so hasn’t been an issue yet. But in your situation the borrower/buyer would be on the boom for the difference in pay if there is a discrepancy. However there are ways to go about that. So hasn’t really been an issue quite yet. 

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26 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Mr. Cooper bought my brothers mortgage.  Couldn’t process a payment for months and then sent threats about foreclosure due to lack of payment.  Complete clusterfuck that actually caused him a bunch of stress in no small part due to his wife opening the foreclosure letter first.

They just bought mine as well. I had no idea, just got a random letter in the mail. I called to ask questions and they said "Your account doesn't officially transfer over until 9-1, so call back then." WTF, my payment is due that day. They said don't worry about it. Fucking hell.

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34 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Just depends what the agreement is in place between the parties. Everything has been going chalk so far for us so hasn’t been an issue yet. But in your situation the borrower/buyer would be on the boom for the difference in pay if there is a discrepancy. However there are ways to go about that. So hasn’t really been an issue quite yet. 

So are you saying BA and SA are still splitting commission but now the BA just has to have a payment agreement with buyer vs. it being assumed previously?

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11 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

So are you saying BA and SA are still splitting commission but now the BA just has to have a payment agreement with buyer vs. it being assumed previously?

Correct. Seller is still paying it it just needs to be in written form. HAR and ABOR (or maybe one of the two) won’t let you view properties without it now. So it’s still a lot of the same just in writing 

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They just bought mine as well. I had no idea, just got a random letter in the mail. I called to ask questions and they said "Your account doesn't officially transfer over until 9-1, so call back then." WTF, my payment is due that day. They said don't worry about it. Fucking hell.

And you can’t process a payment via the previous servicer?
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6 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

wrote my first offer under the new rules yesterday.  It's a small deal, but the client didn't balk when I asked her to sign the rep agreement paying me 2.5%

That's good to hear for my Realtor friends.  Did the client understand the changes?

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1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

I'm going to pick some nits with this, but I don't personally feel comfortable making market predictions using historical norms as my basis, particularly for the technology companies and their employees. 

That said, let me play devil's advocate.  The fact that central Texas (and the state) has made commitments to manufacturing might mean that even a short national recession doesn't significantly impact local employment (in other words, the momentum to staff up these facilities and the smaller firms supplying them will continue to generate new jobs).  Obviously most of this is east of Austin so it's not helping Lakeway homeowner's sell the Lake Travis living experience. 

I'm not entirely sure of your point in regards to rental cash flow.  Are you saying that new investment buyers in this market aren't cash-flowing?  Pretty much all of the investment portfolios I've reviewed in which the purchase was made pre-'21 are cash-flowing, sometimes a lot.  As far as price drops, I'm just not seeing it in anything under $400K and I think there's sufficient demand from owner-occupants in the $400K-$600K range that prices have been sticky.  Anything more expensive than that purchased for pure investment has been mostly confined to short-term rentals. 

On the recession impact, that is why I said there is upside potential and downside risk.  It could be a brief non impacting recession. 

However, I’m in real estate and also ran tech companies and have the opinion that the Austin area has not seen a real downturn for a long time and conditions are looking to have more downside risk than any year since 2009-2010. 

So far this year, I’ve saved a few clients a lot of money by getting their properties sold at good prices before the declines of the last few months hit their areas.  

On the cash flowing, I was responding to the thoughts expressed earlier about starting to rent out now. I’m sure anything from pre 2021 is fine.

Again, I look at the situation in probabilities and expected returns, so that it’s not just guessing about the future.  

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We're making a list of crap we need to fix before downsizing, most likely next year.  Our refrigerator has a leak, which is either a true leak from the water line or periodic condensation.  We have not been able to get anyone to actually fix the problem and the warranty is long expired.  I'm quite sure there is damage to the baseboards behind the refrigerator.

Once we pull it and fix the baseboards I'm not about to put it back in the kitchen, I want it gone.  So, we'll need a new one.  My question:  does a refrigerator typically convey to the buyer when the house sells?  I don't really want to buy someone else a super nice refrigerator.

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There isn’t an expectation of refrigerators conveying. A lot of times people don’t want to take a fridge with them, and I’ll use the fridge as a potential deal negotiating point. Or, just tell people it conveys in the realtor notes. 

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