All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[jimmyjazz 47127]

Thanks, appreciate it.  Depending on where we end up (smaller house, purchase or rental, Austin, elsewhere) I guess we'll decide whether to buy a nice model and take it or a lesser model and convey it.

Edited August 31 by jimmyjazz

[UTPhil2006 3930]

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

We're making a list of crap we need to fix before downsizing, most likely next year.  Our refrigerator has a leak, which is either a true leak from the water line or periodic condensation.  We have not been able to get anyone to actually fix the problem and the warranty is long expired.  I'm quite sure there is damage to the baseboards behind the refrigerator.

Once we pull it and fix the baseboards I'm not about to put it back in the kitchen, I want it gone.  So, we'll need a new one.  My question:  does a refrigerator typically convey to the buyer when the house sells?  I don't really want to buy someone else a super nice refrigerator.

If it’s nice take it with you. But then in the new place the one may convey as well. But as noted above just notate that appliances are negotiable and such. 

[BearSchlong 8238]

That’s how people end up with garage fridges. When I sold my last house, the buyer ended up with a kitchen fridge and a garage fridge and I only took my chest freezer.

[UTPhil2006 3930]

18 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

That’s how people end up with garage fridges. When I sold my last house, the buyer ended up with a kitchen fridge and a garage fridge and I only took my chest freezer.

Which IMO is never a bad thing.  I will gladly stock any and all garage fridges as a closing gift.  

[Dbeasy 15561]

@Gil Bang is the market in Soruhwrn California slowing? I saw a video saying it has finally. That is what I’ve been waiting to hear. If so, buckle up on stock holdings. 

[Incredulity 11874]

2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

is the market in Soruhwrn California slowing

do you smell burning hair?

[Gil Bang 26230]

11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

@Gil Bang is the market in Soruhwrn California slowing? I saw a video saying it has finally. That is what I’ve been waiting to hear. If so, buckle up on stock holdings. 

yes, sales are slowing, but prices haven't followed.  Inventory is up a bit, pendings are down a bit.  

[Gravy Train 975]

Homebuyers' deflationary mindset not going away, 50bps FFR discount isn't moving the needle when -25bps is already priced in. 

Who can write me a 30-year conventional in Colorado, or at least talk to me about bridge options?  I'm starting to explore my exit from Texas.

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

6 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Homebuyers' deflationary mindset not going away, 50bps FFR discount isn't moving the needle when -25bps is already priced in. 

Who can write me a 30-year conventional in Colorado, or at least talk to me about bridge options?  I'm starting to explore my exit from Texas.

Be happy to help you on that.

[UTPhil2006 3930]

Down .04 today, down .06 yesterday, down .04 Tuesday so a very good week thus far, currently sitting at 3.72 which is right at a 15 month low (June '23).  Also anyone who has bought in the last 18-24 months we have another incentive going on refinances (FHA and VA getting close to/doable at 4.xx).. can DM/email (pdubord@prodigymbo.com) or text/call if you wanna see some numbers

[G650 14437]

On 8/31/2024 at 10:21 AM, jimmyjazz said:

My question:  does a refrigerator typically convey to the buyer when the house sells?  I don't really want to buy someone else a super nice refrigerator.

Just do what we did and buy an average one. As mentioned fridges convey probably half the time? The one in the house we are buying is staying so we got a Samsung on Labor Day sale to replace our built in which is on it's last legs.

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

Just Locked someone on a free loan where we pay all their closing costs on a conventional at 5.875.  He wanted that over lowest rate which would have been 5.5. National average is at 6.38% right now. That's the lowest it's been in a couple years- I believe.  My two favorite seasons are Football season and refinance season.  Pretty sure they are both here now. 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

Lower loan amount? Seems a little high 

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

6 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Lower loan amount? Seems a little high 

On a standard conventional loan (national average- 6.38%) with $7000 going to cover all closing costs including interest?  Not high at all.  We making 95 bips on that deal.  

[UTPhil2006 3930]

41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

On a standard conventional loan (national average- 6.38%) with $7000 going to cover all closing costs including interest?  Not high at all.  We making 95 bips on that deal.  

I see what you’re saying. Youre eating closing costs  

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

17 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

I see what you’re saying. Youre eating closing costs  

Yessir.  Was pretty excited to see I can do that on a conventional with a 5 as the front handle.  It's finally working!
 

[Incredulity 11874]

4 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

free loan

 

 

 

just being surly

[Storm the Field 5366]

Mixed bag on August jobs report. Neither bulls nor bears happy. Headline number slightly below expectations (142K vs. 165K). July revised down to only 79K. However, U3 down from 4.3% to 4.2% and wage growth stronger than expected at 0.4%. 

Coin flip odds between 25 bps or 50 bps cut in in 2 weeks. 

10-year was down immediately after release, but now flat.

[UTPhil2006 3930]

13 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Mixed bag on August jobs report. Neither bulls nor bears happy. Headline number slightly below expectations (142K vs. 165K). July revised down to only 79K. However, U3 down from 4.3% to 4.2% and wage growth stronger than expected at 0.4%. 

Coin flip odds between 25 bps or 50 bps cut in in 2 weeks. 

10-year was down immediately after release, but now flat.

Was hoping to get to around 3.65 on the 10 year 

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

That jobs report wasn't a mixed bag is was putrid. The expectation was low and missed by double digit percentage and the last two months were revised down by 89k. That brings total revisions for the year through 8 months to 365,000  which means that over 20% of the jobs originally reported NEVER happened.  There is something fundamentally broken (either through intentions or incompetence) going on with the BLS and it's all coming through the birth/death model in small business.  Which you can see as it's constantly at odds with ADP.

JOLTS on Wednesday was revised down and at lowest level since 2009 (excluding covid b/c it's insane not to).  Quit rate is lowest since 2014. Hire rate is low. To the extent that unemployment went down from 4.3% to 4.2% it is nothing more than people giving up working.

I took a strong position at polymarket on 50 bip rate cut when it was trading at 16% (like 2 weeks ago).  It's now at 35%.  5 of the last 6 initial cuts were 50 bips. I don't see any particular reason why this is different. I'm selling everything over my initial investment so that's all I have at play right now so I'm in the black already and can't lose, but I expect to ride this all the way to 100 or 0. I think it's 50 but who knows. 

I'd also buy futures at 3, 4 & 5 rate cuts for the year which you can get at 28, 25 and 21 respectively right now.  If any of those hit that's a profit.  Gun to my head I'd be on 4, but I think 5 is more likely than 3.  They call every 25 bips a rate cut in the market- so if it goes 50 bips on 9/18 they will call that 2 rate cuts.  
Put another way- they have 3 meetings left- I absolutely believe they will cut at all 3 of them.  My guess would be 2, 1, 1 for 4, but I could see 1,1,1 or 2,1,2 if the bottom really falls out between here and there. 

my bet is 10-12 cuts between here and the end of this economic cycle, but I don't think you can actually bet on that.  

[UTPhil2006 3930]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Was hoping to get to around 3.65 on the 10 year 

Cmon keep going..

[Incredulity 11874]

47 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Cmon keep going..

I’m fearful you are rooting for the wrong thing here?

[UTPhil2006 3930]

35 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I’m fearful you are rooting for the wrong thing here?

It was down to 3.66 at the time. Lower 10 year = lower rates 

[ChickenSandwich 9953]

https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgage-refinance-rates-today-friday-september-6-2024-100035352.html

 

Mortgage and refinance rates today, September 6, 2024: Rates drop 77 basis points in a year

[Incredulity 11874]

11 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

It was down to 3.66 at the time. Lower 10 year = lower rates 

My point is:

It's going lower because economic issues are increasing.  If the issues get bad enough the rate won't matter.

 

Fingers crossed

[hornmpa96 2661]

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 

my bet is 10-12 cuts between here and the end of this economic cycle, but I don't think you can actually bet on that.  

You bet on that by buying into a long-term bond fund.

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

1 hour ago, hornmpa96 said:

You bet on that by buying into a long-term bond fund.

I meant actual gambling, but yeah that works too. 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

On 9/6/2024 at 8:33 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Was hoping to get to around 3.65 on the 10 year 

We’re basically here this morning  hitting 16 month lows. Got a ways to go to get to 17 month lows (3.33 in April ‘23) 

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

26 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

We’re basically here this morning  hitting 16 month lows. Got a ways to go to get to 17 month lows (3.33 in April ‘23) 

Some interesting numbers from Habib today.

Average distance between the top of the 10 year and the point it's at when the first rate cut happens is 1.40 points.  10 year topped out in this cycle at 5.0.  So, if this is where it's at next week it's basically dead bang on the average.

If the rate cuts continue to happen as they have on average in the past cycles we would expect the 10 year to bottom out (probably in 12-18 months) at about 2.2%.

Typically, mortgage rates have about a 2 point spread on the 10 year (this has grown greater during rates going up but will probably get back to normal spread as they go down).  Thus- if this happens the bottom should see national average (I'm guessing 18-24 months from now after about 250 basis points in cuts by the fed) bottom out about 4.25 for the national average. Work with a good broker and that means you should be in the high 3's at the trough of this mortgage cycle.  Maybe low 4's. 

This strikes me as likely and intuitively right- as in 2019 we were at low 4's for the national average and mid to high 3's for my clients before Covid came and distorted the entire market.  

If the 10 year performs less than average during this rate cutting cycle that would means national rates between 4.5 and 4.75 so a sharply priced buyer would be low 4's.

 

 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

Yep right around 4 long term is the sweet spot. Refi to 5 this year refi to 4 a year or so after that. Bingo bango 

[jimmyjazz 47127]

Please be true.  We want to sell in the next 8-24 months.

[LCHorn 2750]

This is from my network and not me directly, but I’m hearing stories of 30-40 trigger lead derived phone calls to a borrower in the first two days after credit pull.  Someone also claimed upwards of 50 and they had previously signed up on the  opt out pre-screen website.

We also appear to be about to lose an approved refi because the servicer made an offer better than ours after we ordered the payoff (of course theirs is capturing a couple of weeks of pricing improvements).  
 

TL:DR-prep your borrowers for a deluge of sales calls and don’t order the payoff until right before closing.  

[UTPhil2006 3930]

53 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

This is from my network and not me directly, but I’m hearing stories of 30-40 trigger lead derived phone calls to a borrower in the first two days after credit pull.  Someone also claimed upwards of 50 and they had previously signed up on the  opt out pre-screen website.

We also appear to be about to lose an approved refi because the servicer made an offer better than ours after we ordered the payoff (of course theirs is capturing a couple of weeks of pricing improvements).  
 

TL:DR-prep your borrowers for a deluge of sales calls and don’t order the payoff until right before closing.  

Yeah that’s the first thing I explain, especially to new borrowers nowadays. It’s ridic. Also surprised the picked up and then beat your offer. I believe Wulaw lobby’s or something against it. Not sure what treadway has been made though 

[We’reTexas 1477]

This is from my network and not me directly, but I’m hearing stories of 30-40 trigger lead derived phone calls to a borrower in the first two days after credit pull.  Someone also claimed upwards of 50 and they had previously signed up on the  opt out pre-screen website.
We also appear to be about to lose an approved refi because the servicer made an offer better than ours after we ordered the payoff (of course theirs is capturing a couple of weeks of pricing improvements).  
 
TL:DR-prep your borrowers for a deluge of sales calls and don’t order the payoff until right before closing.  

Can confirm (and it was well more than 50).

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

44 minutes ago, We’reTexas said:

Can confirm (and it was well more than 50).

Soft pull, opt out, hard pull, order payoff right before closing.  It is so lousy for the borrower.

Yes- I've spent $5,000 of my own money plus 2 weeks over the last 2 years (plus an hour a month additional) lobbying to get this cleaned up. It's gross and disgusting.

[UT_OB1 2266]

My ReFi was…3-4 months ago?  And I’m still getting multiple calls and texts every day. 

[Gravy Train 975]

Who are the databrokers selling borrower details upon their credit pull?  If it's coming from the credit bureaus themselves, I'll rage.  Might as well use a Google Voice number for all contact from consult to closing.

[LCHorn 2750]

3 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

If it's coming from the credit bureaus themselves, I'll rage

Rage on, it’s the bureaus.  

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

13 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Who are the databrokers selling borrower details upon their credit pull?  If it's coming from the credit bureaus themselves, I'll rage.  Might as well use a Google Voice number for all contact from consult to closing.

Bureaus. It’s really really really deserving of getting them fire bombed. It’s awful and I can’t even comprehend why it’s ok. 
We’ve ceded way too much control of our financial lives to the credit bureaus and they are shit heads. 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

[UT_OB1 2266]

🚀🚀🌕💎💎?

[Dbeasy 15561]

Just spent an hour trying to reach a live person at Experian. It’s impossible. These people need to be crucified. 

[Captainant 28509]

36 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Just spent an hour trying to reach a live person at Experian. It’s impossible. These people need to be crucified. 

How about they leak your PII and then give you a year of credit monitoring and call it even stevens?

[UTPhil2006 3930]

New conventional loan limit for ‘25 803,500

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

Market down 10 points this morning in mbs.  After everyone got groggy and 67% of the market started pricing in a 50 basis point cut looks like they are getting scared and selling before the announcement today. 
I was telling people to buy futures in 50 basis point cut when it was trading at 17% on poly maker and sell when it was at like 38%, take your profit and leave your initial stake in investment in. It hit 74% the other day. Yesterday was down to 54%. This morning it’s at 48%. Interesting. 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Market down 10 points this morning in mbs.  After everyone got groggy and 67% of the market started pricing in a 50 basis point cut looks like they are getting scared and selling before the announcement today. 
I was telling people to buy futures in 50 basis point cut when it was trading at 17% on poly maker and sell when it was at like 38%, take your profit and leave your initial stake in investment in. It hit 74% the other day. Yesterday was down to 54%. This morning it’s at 48%. Interesting. 

Could go either way at this point. 

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Could go either way at this point. 

Yep. But more sellers than buyers this morning- as people taking profits from good move higher the last couple weeks/month. 

[Wulaw Horn 19579]

Anyone else feel like throwing up now with 11 minutes to go before the fed announcement?  This is like me watching Texas v OU but if I had about a $50k bet on the game right now.  I don't know if I'm going to make it....

I'm in a glass cage of emotions. 

Edited September 18 by Wulaw Horn

[UTPhil2006 3930]

4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Anyone else feel like throwing up now with 11 minutes to go before the fed announcement?  This is like me watching Texas v OU but if I had about a $50k bet on the game right now.  I don't know if I'm going to make it....

I'm in a glass cage of emotions. 

[LCHorn 2750]

Wow!  Now we can breathe again.