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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Wow!  Now we can breathe again.  

we were at - 17 bips the minute before it was released. Will be interesting to see what the swing is between now and the end of the day.  I'm betting 30 points better to end the day (so finish plus 13). 

We shall see. 

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5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Shows what I know. 

Eh- you know a lot.  You are one of the most knowledgeable posters on things economic on this site.  I just eat, drink and sleep this particular subset of economics b/c it's my job.  The media sucks at financial reporting so most of the headline shit is utter nonsense.  

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11 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I give Habib a lot of shit but I’m listening to his podcast with Tim Braheem and he called the 50.

How you feel about Habib over the last year would be 180 degrees different if the BLS hadn't reported a fake 850k jobs and the market wouldn't have reacted to the headline number and ignored the revisions.  That really messed us up.

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And looks like the market closes down 14 for the day. It managed to briefly get into the green for like 5 minutes with a high at 7 bips up.  Lenders re-pricing for the worse. I must say- I didn't have market worsening and breaking through technical support after getting a 50 bip cut from the feds on my bingo card for the day.  Can't imagine how ugly it would have been if we only got 25 bips.  

Oh well, didn't have to happen today- but it will happen I'm sure going forward. Doesn't make any sense not to as that's where all the data, history and now government policy points to. 

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Today wasn’t gonna reflect anything but a negative reaction. We’ve been locking as they come in this week on refinances but I suspect we will get back the .04 we went up today on the 10 year and then hopefully get into the 3.5xx by week end. But long term with the potential 50bps again in Nov/Dec they mentioned in the Presser we are headed in the lower direction going into 2025 

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2 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Today wasn’t gonna reflect anything but a negative reaction. We’ve been locking as they come in this week on refinances but I suspect we will get back the .04 we went up today on the 10 year and then hopefully get into the 3.5xx by week end. But long term with the potential 50bps again in Nov/Dec they mentioned in the Presser we are headed in the lower direction going into 2025 

Yeah- you weren't wrong when you said coin flip.  100 was best case scenario between now and the end of the year and that looks like what we are going to get- that wasn't fully priced in so sort of odd- but yeah- better days ahead I highly suspect.  

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Can anyone confirm rates I'm getting are market?  I'm going to refi my construction loan with my local bank since they were the only ones that would do a construction loan for me last year.  They told me these are my options (no points on either):

 

7/1 ARM - 5.175%

30 year fixed - 6.1375%

 

Are those at least close to market?

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5 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

Can anyone confirm rates I'm getting are market?  I'm going to refi my construction loan with my local bank since they were the only ones that would do a construction loan for me last year.  They told me these are my options (no points on either):

 

7/1 ARM - 5.175%

30 year fixed - 6.1375%

 

Are those at least close to market?

Primary? And Colorado (I think?)

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coming in late, but I think I bitched a month ago that they needed  a quarter, and maybe a half a month ago.  A half was what IMHO was appropriate.  Because despite what I read Powell said about a commitment to not being late this swing.  (read my first sentence)

Of course the market went... wait... are we supposed to be scared about a recession!?!?!?!

Movement is downward.  And FORGIVE ME if my recollection is wrong here, but I thin the forward fed fund Sept 2025 future was at 2.89.  I will also say that historic rates of 6 percent on a mortgage have only been "too high" since covid. If you look at 25 years of rates, there is a lot of money to be made at anything sub 6 percent, And lets be honest, it's gonna be more like 5.35% by next spring? Unless the there is areal fucking war in the middle east.  

But up the spring should be good for all your mortgage guys. Capitulation on price from the fake listings (only for a fucking price that will never happen on the books) if they give me the right price. Are fading. The reality that the ridiculous Austin prices of 2 years ago are gone.  And folks that have to sell have been capitulating. And more capitulation is going to happen the rest of this year. IMHO.  But at the end of Feb next year?  That fun loving multiple offer scenario may again be in play.

(if no middle east wider war)

I hope that my musings are true. Because I am about to put a fair amount of time into a remodel that I hope will benefit from my musings.  It will look fucking beautiful either way, but it will look a lot more beautiful to stretch for that place on the lake for a buyer and 4.95% in April.   

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5 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

~300, >420, 780+

If non primary means second home I'd say you'd be doing well to get 6.499 if you weren't paying points

If non primary means investment 6.499 would probably cost you about $750.00

Now- if you could get your loan to value below 70% (that right there is like 71%)  then 6.125 might be on the table with no points. 

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If non primary means second home I'd say you'd be doing well to get 6.499 if you weren't paying points

If non primary means investment 6.499 would probably cost you about $750.00

Now- if you could get your loan to value below 70% (that right there is like 71%)  then 6.125 might be on the table with no points. 

Thank you.  Is that for the 7/1 or 30?  Or does it matter?

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1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.  

Arms on any loans have been pretty dicey for at least 2 years. Now that the yield curves are getting un-inverted again I would imagine that you will see those start to be better again.

 

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1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

ARM’s on conventional loans haven’t offered pricing discounts since 2007.  

Yeah when I priced it wasn’t any benefit. What @boilerhorn needs to do is get @Chewbacca’s local guy to open a branch in Indiana. I could do the 6.125 jumbo but would need a smidge of origination to make it viable. Or if we go down for a week or so it’s doable. 

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Appreciate all of the input.  There are rumblings that there will be another 50 bps drop a little later in the year and possibly another 50bps a quarter later.  Is that what y'all are hearing?  Just trying to time the market, which is often a fool's errand.

Just glad my primary residence is at 2.875% :)

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1 minute ago, boilerhorn said:

Just trying to time the market, which is often a fool's errand.

You can’t really time the market unless your choice is to get a loan in 2025 versus 2026.  
 

There’s going to be additional rate cuts, and we can be fairly positive about the overall direction, but that’s not the kind prediction that works in a smaller time frame.  You can always refinance later if the market accommodates it.

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6 minutes ago, boilerhorn said:

Appreciate all of the input.  There are rumblings that there will be another 50 bps drop a little later in the year and possibly another 50bps a quarter later.  Is that what y'all are hearing?  Just trying to time the market, which is often a fool's errand.

Just glad my primary residence is at 2.875% :)

Dec is prob the next 50 and then 100 in 2025. You can always refinance after about 6 months if it goes down significantly so while there is a little bit of guessing on the timing there’s some options in the future as well as a recourse 

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3 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

You can’t really time the market unless your choice is to get a loan in 2025 versus 2026.  
 

There’s going to be additional rate cuts, and we can be fairly positive about the overall direction, but that’s not the kind prediction that works in a smaller time frame.  You can always refinance later if the market accommodates it.

Good points about timeline.  My primary residence was purchased at a rate of around 6.875% for a 30 and I refi'd numerous times until I got it to 15-yr @ 2.875%

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