All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread

[Gil Bang 25905]

can you do air BNB or something like that to generate some cash?  Are you anywhere near a hospital?  Travel nurses are always looking for a furnished place.  You could move all of mom's shit into the smaller bedrooms, put a lock on them, and make the master available for a tenant.  

[LCHorn 2590]

@Gil Bang has never met a problem a couple of travel nurses couldn’t fix…

[Gil Bang 25905]

59 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

@Gil Bang has never met a problem a couple of travel nurses couldn’t fix…

true.  I've got a cash cow.  I'm SERIOUSLY considering getting deeper into this...like buying a small duplex near the hospital, or buying a single-family and dividing into two or more small units. 

[Storm the Field 5279]

Avert your eyes WULAW:

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

29 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Avert your eyes WULAW:

I saw it. Why am I supposed to give this credence now with their abysmal track record the prior 2 years at getting the data right?  
ADP (you know- the guys that are boots on the ground sending out checks for small businesses) had small business growth nonexistent this month (something like net +2,000). Lets we how much of this 254k is actually verifiable and how much of it is the BLS licking their finger, sticking it up in the air to gauge the wind, and then assigning a number on the birth death model for small business that might (or might not) bear some sort of connection with reality and actual economic activity in America. Will look at summary of that data and report back here either way. 

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

This report looked less fishy than any previous report I’ve railed against for the past 2 years. 
birth death was -148,000!  Meaning/ this was (likely) actual jobs being in place that are countable and not figments of someone’s imagination. 
note/ I’m not saying you cannot and should not model for small business creation, I’m saying that the modeling they were using was abysmal, you could always tell it was abysmal, and the real world bore that out. 
Also stronger component than normal was most of the jobs were full time jobs. That hasn’t been the case lately. 
strong report. 

[UTPhil2006 3795]

10 year up to 3.95. Was 3.65 day rate cut was announced 

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

1 hour ago, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year up to 3.95. Was 3.65 day rate cut was announced 

MBS are down roughly 130 points since that day.  We got 50!  When the market was only expecting 25!  And it's been like eating a plate of shit basically every day since then.  

Tough stuff. 

[horn4life 3758]

I would have liked 1/4 Aug, 1/4 Sept simply to start the movement more when I thought they should have.  I could have argued for a June 25 points, skip july and then 25 in aug, sept, oct.  I also understand the fear of not killing inflation.  But they were late to inflation I think all would agree.  The 50 points was an admission they were late, but a shit ton of uncertainty geopolitically made me nervous enough to dump a shit ton of stock today.  I'll eat the gains and buy back in if I am wrong, but today is "perfect" if you want markets good, employment good, and rates that are falling, but not fast enough (read sentence one).  I also think being late with the 50, psychologically makes folks think... well they might drop another half next month? 

Unfortunately I think Israel is gonna go big on Iran this weekend, and that's another fly in the ointment.  If they don't then I am gonna pay some taxes on gains I should have let ride.

But for me bottom line is they are late, IMHO.   

[Sbbruin 21787]

3 minutes ago, horn4life said:

I would have liked 1/4 Aug, 1/4 Sept simply to start the movement more when I thought they should have.  I could have argued for a June 25 points, skip july and then 25 in aug, sept, oct.  I also understand the fear of not killing inflation.  But they were late to inflation I think all would agree.  The 50 points was an admission they were late, but a shit ton of uncertainty geopolitically made me nervous enough to dump a shit ton of stock today.  I'll eat the gains and buy back in if I am wrong, but today is "perfect" if you want markets good, employment good, and rates that are falling, but not fast enough (read sentence one).  I also think being late with the 50, psychologically makes folks think... well they might drop another half next month? 

Unfortunately I think Israel is gonna go big on Iran this weekend, and that's another fly in the ointment.  If they don't then I am gonna pay some taxes on gains I should have let ride.

But for me bottom line is they are late, IMHO.   

I never try to time the markets.  Just good funds and let it ride.

[horn4life 3758]

6 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

I never try to time the markets.  Just good funds and let it ride.

I've gotten into some risky shit in this account, and had a great year..  I've got options enough to recover the positions, but my downside is comparatively minimal.  And only reason I am doing this is I was going to do the same thing before the Labor Day weekend, and instead cussed myself for a month.  I am betting on Israel doing something this weekend.  And if I am right I will feast on options next week.

And yes funds are great in spreading the risk, as well as limiting the gains.  You aren't going double your money in a year either.  And YES, dumb to try and time the market.  But I am looking at a specific event.  

[UTPhil2006 3795]

On 10/4/2024 at 9:54 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

10 year up to 3.95. Was 3.65 day rate cut was announced 

Back over 4.00 🙄

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Back over 4.00 🙄

Been a brutal beat down ever since the fed cut by 1/2. That… wasn’t what we were looking for. 

[LCHorn 2590]

Is this the new Halloween/horror thread?

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

51 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Is this the new Halloween/horror thread?

Yes. 
rates going up 1/2 a point after the fed lowered half a point is a horror show. 

Edited October 7 by Wulaw Horn

[horn4life 3758]

It's because the dumbasses WERE late.  Not matter what "staying ahead" spin they want to pretend.  They need to go 1/4, and 1/4.  Then if they want to pause I am all for it, but the only way NOT to be behind is to actually be ahead...  Sorry guys.  

If they skip, then they induce more unpredictability into the market. IMHO.  IF the go ahead and cut the 1/4 then they simply keep on course, and it's not as confusing.  For both the mortgage rate and the stock market.

[horn4life 3758]

What if any weight do you guys think the Fed puts on the housing industry beyond employment numbers?  

[UTPhil2006 3795]

 

18 hours ago, horn4life said:

What if any weight do you guys think the Fed puts on the housing industry beyond employment numbers?  

Some? They have to go a broader picture, but builders numbers, etc do factor but I gotta think minimally *at this point in time*

[LCHorn 2590]

21 hours ago, horn4life said:

What if any weight do you guys think the Fed puts on the housing industry beyond employment numbers?  

It’s only relevant to the degree in which it impacts full employment and stable prices (in other words, housing isn’t getting singled out for special treatment just because it’s very sensitive to rate swings). 

[Trey3216 15325]

On 10/7/2024 at 6:52 PM, horn4life said:

It's because the dumbasses WERE late.  Not matter what "staying ahead" spin they want to pretend.  They need to go 1/4, and 1/4.  Then if they want to pause I am all for it, but the only way NOT to be behind is to actually be ahead...  Sorry guys.  

If they skip, then they induce more unpredictability into the market. IMHO.  IF the go ahead and cut the 1/4 then they simply keep on course, and it's not as confusing.  For both the mortgage rate and the stock market.

They may be late, but the bond market doesn't think inflation is under control either...that's the problem here.  

[jdhorn92 1544]

On 9/27/2024 at 9:26 PM, Gil Bang said:

true.  I've got a cash cow.  I'm SERIOUSLY considering getting deeper into this...like buying a small duplex near the hospital, or buying a single-family and dividing into two or more small units. 

This is the way.

You and I may have traded posts on this.  Wife bought a 3-1 with the idea of fixing it up and flipping.  $160K cash in it after new roof, paint, bathroom remodel.  Then she found it was sitting in a medical overlay district.  She did a 180 and decided to rent it to nurses. 

Furnished Finder (sp) was recommender to her from a colleague who was doing the same thing, with great success...but Furnished Finders was a dog for her and it sat for 60 days.  Pivoted to AirBNB and she's booked until next May 1st at $2,450 per mo. Had to turn one nurse away who wanted it for the year at $2k.  Might should have taken that, but she didnt want to cancel the bookings.

Rough math 5-5.5 years until the initial investment is made whole give or take.  The non-monetary value was her mom got to help her with a lot of the staging, furniture acquisition etc..and her dad is the super on the deal, so its keeping them engaged at their advanced age, which is nice.

[LCHorn 2590]

That sounds like a lot of money upfront for $2450/month.  I’m presuming that the $160k was purchase plus remodel and not omitting a chunk that was financed?

[Trey3216 15325]

1 minute ago, LCHorn said:

That sounds like a lot of money upfront for $2450/month.  I’m presuming that the $160k was purchase plus remodel and not omitting a chunk that was financed?

Is this a house for nurse ants??  

[UTPhil2006 3795]

May not impact a lot of you, but UWM will let you go up to 90% (89.99) LTV now with no MI. 

[UTPhil2006 3795]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

May not impact a lot of you, but UWM will let you go up to 90% (89.99) LTV now with no MI. 

Nm not eligible in Texas. Those of you we've helped in Colorado, Florida, Okie, etc still eligible 

[jimmyjazz 45686]

Here's ABOR (Austin Board of Realtors) data on median home prices going back to Jan 2019.  Make of it what you will, some say the Texas A&M data is better.  Austin proper is down ~ 13% from its all-time price peak in May 2022. I sketched in a horizontal line that shows current pricing is roughly equal to the 2021 and 2023 peaks.

The article on KXAN has a lot of other information (days on market, supply, etc.) so click through if you're interested.

Austin-Round Rock Metro residential real estate data

 

[horn4life 3758]

On 10/15/2024 at 1:07 PM, jdhorn92 said:

This is the way.

You and I may have traded posts on this.  Wife bought a 3-1 with the idea of fixing it up and flipping.  $160K cash in it after new roof, paint, bathroom remodel.  Then she found it was sitting in a medical overlay district.  She did a 180 and decided to rent it to nurses. 

Furnished Finder (sp) was recommender to her from a colleague who was doing the same thing, with great success...but Furnished Finders was a dog for her and it sat for 60 days.  Pivoted to AirBNB and she's booked until next May 1st at $2,450 per mo. Had to turn one nurse away who wanted it for the year at $2k.  Might should have taken that, but she didnt want to cancel the bookings.

Rough math 5-5.5 years until the initial investment is made whole give or take.  The non-monetary value was her mom got to help her with a lot of the staging, furniture acquisition etc..and her dad is the super on the deal, so its keeping them engaged at their advanced age, which is nice.

Did you restrict the rental on AirBnB to 30 days or more?  After having our house flood and seeing what shitty 30 day furnished rentals go for, I have become convinced that if you can swing it, 30 day furnished rentals are the way to go.  There is also no hotel motel tax nor reporting necessary on the 30 day+ rentals.  As they are considered long term.

Really nice to have her folks involved in the process. 

[jdhorn92 1544]

On 10/16/2024 at 1:58 PM, horn4life said:

Did you restrict the rental on AirBnB to 30 days or more?  After having our house flood and seeing what shitty 30 day furnished rentals go for, I have become convinced that if you can swing it, 30 day furnished rentals are the way to go.  There is also no hotel motel tax nor reporting necessary on the 30 day+ rentals.  As they are considered long term.

Really nice to have her folks involved in the process. 

That’s a good question, I don’t think so.  I need to find out , but it’s her deal so I pick my spots on the advice side.  
 

When she switched to ABNB from Furnished Finders, she got a nurse/tenant almost immediately who emailed asking how long could she have it and what discount she could get for 90 days.  Interestingly she forgot to add the cleaning fee, as she was new to that site. Anyway , I don’t think she really had time to tinker with the settings b/c she’s got people booked for the next 5 mos.  And yes the collaboration has been so good for them.  

[UTPhil2006 3795]

On 10/7/2024 at 11:56 AM, UTPhil2006 said:

Back over 4.00 🙄

Up to 4.13 already this morning, 3 month highs. 

[Trey3216 15325]

39 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Up to 4.13 already this morning, 3 month highs. 

Yep.  30 yr sitting at 4.46.  54 bips higher than when they announced the cut.  Great

[UTPhil2006 3795]

14 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  30 yr sitting at 4.46.  54 bips higher than when they announced the cut.  Great

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

This is so much fun. Good times. Good times. 

[Dbeasy 15012]

A long time bond investor for two years has been telling me the 10 year will top out around 5.5-6%. When it hit 5% he said it was fine to load up on some bonds, but cautioned that government borrowing would eventually require 5.5% or higher. We should know in six months whether he’s right. Either the whole economy will break before then, or government budget deficit talks will produce a message. 

[UTPhil2006 3795]

31 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

A long time bond investor for two years has been telling me the 10 year will top out around 5.5-6%. When it hit 5% he said it was fine to load up on some bonds, but cautioned that government borrowing would eventually require 5.5% or higher. We should know in six months whether he’s right. Either the whole economy will break before then, or government budget deficit talks will produce a message. 

We hit 4.997 at the peak last year (right around this date in '23). 5.5-6% would be pretty disastrous 

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

A long time bond investor for two years has been telling me the 10 year will top out around 5.5-6%. When it hit 5% he said it was fine to load up on some bonds, but cautioned that government borrowing would eventually require 5.5% or higher. We should know in six months whether he’s right. Either the whole economy will break before then, or government budget deficit talks will produce a message. 

No way.  

[LCHorn 2590]

5 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is so much fun. Good times. Good times. 

On the bright side, if you’re like me you have eight hours of continuing education to spend contemplating how the rest of 2024 is going to go.  

[Dbeasy 15012]

2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No way.  

I’m a bit skeptical as well. I went ahead and built my bond ladder when rates were at 5%. However, the budget deficits are so bad, no one really knows where this is headed over the next 24 months. 

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

On the bright side, if you’re like me you have eight hours of continuing education to spend contemplating how the rest of 2024 is going to go.  

I’ve got 19 hours of CE to get done this week.   Yay 

[Trey3216 15325]

19 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is so much fun. Good times. Good times. 

 

[UTPhil2006 3795]

Came off of that at least. And the DJI doesn't like it either so maybe we can get a reprieve on this upward trend 

[gurt 744]

so what explains this upward movement?

[UTPhil2006 3795]

11 minutes ago, gurt said:

so what explains this upward movement?

You'll get several different opinions and ensuing arguments but basically the concept that we're headed towards a "soft landing" with where we are with jobs, inflation, earnings reports, etc and moreso that when the Fed announces Nov 7 it's going to be a 25 bps cut if not less 

[Trey3216 15325]

25 minutes ago, gurt said:

so what explains this upward movement?

Mostly that the bond market doesn't believe inflation is under control.  i.e.  the FED waited too long to raise rates and the economy hasn't cooled off enough.  By cutting rates, the economy may reheat to the point where the FED has to maintain or raise rates in order to stifle inflation/economy.   The low point on the pic I sent was basically the day they cut rates.  So either some economic numbers are going to have to come back soft, or inflation is going to have to show much lower readings than it is, or the bond market is going to continue to disagree with FED machinations.  

[LCHorn 2590]

48 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Mostly that the bond market doesn't believe inflation is under control.  i.e.  the FED waited too long to raise rates and the economy hasn't cooled off enough.  By cutting rates, the economy may reheat to the point where the FED has to maintain or raise rates in order to stifle inflation/economy.   The low point on the pic I sent was basically the day they cut rates.  So either some economic numbers are going to have to come back soft, or inflation is going to have to show much lower readings than it is, or the bond market is going to continue to disagree with FED machinations.  

That’s one reading of it.  I think there’s more chaos in the markets at present than one explanation can account for, i.e., there’s little consensus about what comes next.  
 

The immediate, post 9/18 deterioration in bond pricing wasn’t due to inflation concerns, it was reassurance the the Fed would be more accommodative and that the  risk/reward balance favored equities (which depressed bond demand).  War in the Middle East, oil price shock risk, the election, inflation coming down globally, seasonal adjustments are all in the strew pot, I just don’t know how you tease one out from another.  
 

My old boss wrote a blog post a couple of days ago and he thinks the rates will fall after the election*, but it might be later in Q1 before we get back to where we were 9/12-9/17.  
 

*he actually didn’t write this part, but I bet he’s counting on the Dems losing the Senate, House and President both go Dem, and a divided Congress reassures markets that fiscal policy will be restrained.  

[Trey3216 15325]

6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

That’s one reading of it.  I think there’s more chaos in the markets at present than one explanation can account for, i.e., there’s little consensus about what comes next.  
 

The immediate, post 9/18 deterioration in bond pricing wasn’t due to inflation concerns, it was reassurance the the Fed would be more accommodative and that the  risk/reward balance favored equities (which depressed bond demand).  War in the Middle East, oil price shock risk, the election, inflation coming down globally, seasonal adjustments are all in the strew pot, I just don’t know how you tease one out from another.  
 

My old boss wrote a blog post a couple of days ago and he thinks the rates will fall after the election*, but it might be later in Q1 before we get back to where we were 9/12-9/17.  
 

*he actually didn’t write this part, but I bet he’s counting on the Dems losing the Senate, House and President both go Dem, and a divided Congress reassures markets that fiscal policy will be restrained.  

There's definitely more chaos in the markets than currently showing.  I think the stock market sells off regardless who gets elected to be honest.  I just think there's a lot of things working against one another right now.  

Inflation has come down, but prices are still constraining  budgets in a bad way.  Rates are still very high for non-prime lending for vehicles, equipment, etc.  Home prices have cooled, but not precipitously in many markets.  Lot of factors.  Lot of data that markets move on flipping back and forth bringing further uncertainty....and we know markets dislike uncertainty.   

[UTPhil2006 3795]

2 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Came off of that at least. And the DJI doesn't like it either so maybe we can get a reprieve on this upward trend 

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

35 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

That’s one reading of it.  I think there’s more chaos in the markets at present than one explanation can account for, i.e., there’s little consensus about what comes next.  
 

The immediate, post 9/18 deterioration in bond pricing wasn’t due to inflation concerns, it was reassurance the the Fed would be more accommodative and that the  risk/reward balance favored equities (which depressed bond demand).  War in the Middle East, oil price shock risk, the election, inflation coming down globally, seasonal adjustments are all in the strew pot, I just don’t know how you tease one out from another.  
 

My old boss wrote a blog post a couple of days ago and he thinks the rates will fall after the election*, but it might be later in Q1 before we get back to where we were 9/12-9/17.  
 

*he actually didn’t write this part, but I bet he’s counting on the Dems losing the Senate, House and President both go Dem, and a divided Congress reassures markets that fiscal policy will be restrained.  

Your boss is exceedingly bad at handicapping (in my opinion) and I will line up as much as he wants to put money on the other side of what he thinks is going to happen on the election. That being said- I think that sort of points toward the point you are making about how little consensus there is on what comes next.  We will see in 2 weeks the start of a consensus building one way or another I'm sure as to what's next.  

[LCHorn 2590]

29 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Your boss is exceedingly bad at handicapping (in my opinion) and I will line up as much as he wants to put money on the other side of what he thinks is going to happen on the election.

Well, it might be better to say that MY presumption about his handicapping is suspect 😉

So what’s your prediction?

[Wulaw Horn 19042]

39 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Well, it might be better to say that MY presumption about his handicapping is suspect 😉

So what’s your prediction?

Trump 312 or so to 226- 53 GOP Senate- who the fuck knows in the house. That's my prognostication.  Go look at my Georgia prediction for that game to see how well I can see the future

  

[UTPhil2006 3795]

10 year already this morning