Trump's finances (NO POLITICS!)

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

Getting a little too CR/political with pics like these.  We'd like this to stay business focused, so that we can expose the absolute financial fraud this family is.  It's gonna take awhile to unpack all of this as both the constitutional violations made during his term in office come to light, but also as heavy debt comes due that they were counting on being deferred during a second term.  

Fun fact---I am on campus right now to pitch my idea for a joint course between Dept. of Government and Dept. of Finance (where I am an adjunct lecturer) later today.  We won't be able to launch it for another few semesters but you gotta get the ball rolling somehow.  We have great courses on the politics of energy, the politics of tech, even the politics of manufacturing.  But we need a course on the politics of finance, or the failure thereof.  And what better case study to use than the rise and fall of the Trump "Empire"?  It'll take awhile to flesh out, but that's okay...Trump's colossal business ineptitudes and political corruption will take awhile to unpack and UT moves slowly anyway.  I just want to be the first major university in the United States to offer this course.  Already have the support of LBJ School and the Tower, not bad assets with which to start.  If I can get the Ransom Center to loan us David Mamet, this will be a legendary course with possibly movie rights:

"Remember, the mark of a great Confidence Man isn't that he earns your confidence.  He arranges it...so that you try to earn his."  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8921]

Do we even know how don jr and Eric managed it while he was gone? I’m sure he still was managing while president but I wonder how much they fucked up. Although it would be interesting if they somehow did a good job- doubtful

Those 2? Work? lol

[bolverk 29847]

Legal Pressure on Trump Increases With Judge’s Order in Fraud Inquiry
The order, answering a demand for documents by New York’s attorney general, rejected a bid to shield the records with attorney-client privilege.

A New York judge on Friday increased pressure on former President Donald J. Trump’s family business and several associates, ordering them to give state investigators documents in a civil inquiry into whether the company misstated assets to get bank loans and tax benefits.

It was the second blow that the judge, Arthur F. Engoron of State Supreme Court in Manhattan, had dealt to Mr. Trump’s company in recent weeks.

In December, he ordered the company, the Trump Organization, to produce records that its lawyers had tried to shield, including some related to a Westchester County, N.Y., property that is among those being scrutinized by the New York State attorney general, Letitia James.

On Friday, Justice Engoron went further, saying that even more documents, as well as communications with a law firm hired by the Trump Organization, had to be handed over to Ms. James’s office. In doing so, he rejected the lawyers’ claim that the documents at issue were covered by attorney-client privilege.

The ruling was a fresh reminder that Mr. Trump — who left office about a week ago under the cloud of impeachment and who is headed for a Senate trial on a charge of “incitement of insurrection” after his supporters stormed the Capitol in a violent rampage — faces significant legal jeopardy as a private citizen.

The most serious threats confronting the former president include a criminal investigation by the Manhattan district attorney and the civil inquiry by the attorney general into possible fraud in Mr. Trump’s business dealings before he was elected.

Spoiler

 

Ms. James’s investigation began in March 2019, after Michael D. Cohen, the former president’s onetime lawyer, told Congress that Mr. Trump had inflated his assets in financial statements to secure bank loans and had understated them elsewhere to reduce his tax bill.

Investigators in Ms. James’s office have focused their attention on an array of transactions, including a financial restructuring of the Trump International Hotel & Tower in Chicago in 2010 that resulted in the Fortress Credit Corporation forgiving debt worth more than $100 million.

Ms. James’s office has said in court documents that the Trump Organization — Mr. Trump’s main business vehicle — had thwarted efforts to determine how that money was reflected in its tax filings, and whether it was declared as income, as the law typically requires.

An analysis of Mr. Trump’s financial records by The New York Times found that he had avoided federal income tax on almost all of the forgiven debt.

Ms. James’s office is also examining whether the Trump Organization used inflated appraisals when it received large tax breaks after promising to conserve land where its development efforts faltered, including at its Seven Springs estate in Westchester County.

Accusing the Trump Organization of trying to stall the inquiry, lawyers with Ms. James’s office sought a judge’s order in August compelling the company to turn over documents related to the Seven Springs estate and other properties, and requiring the former president’s son Eric Trump, a company vice president, to testify in the inquiry. (Eventually, he did.)

In December, Justice Engoron ordered the Trump Organization to turn over to Ms. James’s office an engineer’s documents related to a conservation easement at the Seven Springs property.

Ms. James’s office is examining whether the easement is legitimate and whether an improper valuation of the estate allowed the Trump Organization to take a $21 million tax deduction it was not entitled to.

Lawyers for the company had tried to keep the engineer’s documents from investigators by claiming the materials were privileged because lawyers for the Trump Organization relied on them in valuing the property. Justice Engoron rejected that argument.

In the order issued on Friday, Justice Engoron again found that the Trump Organization lawyers had invoked attorney-client privilege for documents to which it did not apply.

Some communications that had been marked as privileged, he wrote, were “addressing business tasks and decisions, not exchanges soliciting or rendering legal advice.” He also said that communications related to public relations were not of a legal nature and that privilege was waived in some circumstances where third parties were involved in the discussions.

Justice Engoron did not specify in the order which documents were to be provided to Ms. James’s office, but he gave the Trump Organization until Feb. 4 to turn them over.

A spokesman for the attorney general declined to comment. A representative of the Trump Organization did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Seven Springs estate is also now at issue in the long-running inquiry being conducted by the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., as first reported by The Wall Street Journal. Prosecutors involved in the inquiry, the only known active criminal investigation of Mr. Trump, have subpoenaed records related to the Westchester property, according to people familiar with the matter.

Mr. Vance’s investigation has largely been stalled since last fall, when Mr. Trump sued to block a subpoena for his tax returns and other records, sending the bitter dispute to the U.S. Supreme Court for a second time. A ruling is expected soon.

 

 

[TwiceHorn 31705]

On 1/22/2021 at 11:18 AM, bolverk said:

I don't know jack about high finance, but what y'all are describing reminds me of a guy in Lubbock who was going to law school I knew back in the 1990s that would max out his credit limit on one card and then get another card to pack the debt on the previous one. I believe he did that multiple times. This was before I moved down to Austin and before Facebook, so I fell out of contact with him. I'm sure it finally caught up with him but don't know how that finally turned out. Maybe he was able to survive it long enough until he made the big bucks once he went into practice. Again, no idea. 

Friend of mine in law school did that to finance his education.  Paid them off every summer with a lucrative clerkship, rinse and repeat.

Trump's problem is that he would need an astronomical amount of cash to ever reconcile the thing.

[Aqua Buddha 14671]

On 1/22/2021 at 5:10 AM, Lobo said:

serious question---does Trump have a registered family office?  [b]I don't know of a single billionaire that doesn't have their own SFO to handle outside investments.[/b]  I've never heard anything about one and there's no mention of one in any of the directories.  There's nobody out there who purports to work for a Trump SFO.  I'm sure they "handle" everything internally, but every single billionaire (or really anybody worth over $100mm) usually deploys an MFO/SFO beyond private wealth management/private banking even if they made their fortune in the investing space to begin with. 

I know many of these types keep it close to the vest and don't advertise their family office structure, but this is not a family that shies away from talking about their money/investments/success.  Plus, we've read plenty about his business dealings, charitable foundation, taxes, trusts, net worth, etc.  It's strange that a family office proper, has never come up.  I mean "The Trump Organization" acts like it is, but it's not licensed or chartered to do what family offices do.  Just because it handles their real estate investments doesn't make it an SFO.  A fortune of that size would have a small team running global equities, fixed income, private, alts/hedge, cash equivalents, etc.  And they would do outside the family business for a dozen legal, ethical, and strategic reasons.  Plus the SFO team usually advises the charitable arm of a fortune that size, and handles treasury management as lump sums come in from say TV show royalties or property sales.  anyway, never heard of a billionaire that runs their family office through their main business for a hundred reasons of bad idea jeans. 

Who said Trump is a billionaire?

The Trump cultists will stunned to learn how little money he actually has.  (They'll say it's fake news, though.)  To your point, you ticked off things real billionaires do.  Trump does none of those.  However, he does tons of things real billionaires don't do.  He slaps his name on damn near everything (buildings, steak, etc.)  Do you see Mark Cuban doing that?  No.  Donald Trump was doing godfather pizza commercials before he became a reality show host.  On one hand he wants us to believe the Trump Org is a multi national billion dollar company but Michael Cohen was the head of all legal.  M'kay.

A family office needs very high 9 figures in assets to justify the staff of accountants, lawyers, real estate people, etc.  His small office basically just does branding.

He owns two major office buildings along with Vornado who can't sell their stake due to the shitty commercial RE market.  He also owns some golf courses but owes well over a billion dollars on them and the two high rises.  He pissed away a lot of his income potential on 1/6.  Gone are the book deals and speaking tours.  He could still get a TV show but he won't be doing the work.  That's not how he rolls.  He could slap his name on something but that's about it.  "Trump TV" is the most obvious move but it's hard to get on cable and I can't see people watching his channel on YouTube.

 

[bolverk 29847]

An investigation of the financing for Trump's golf courses in Scotland is being called for by one of their MPs and a debate is being held today on whether their parliament will start up an inquiry.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eric-donald-trump-scotland-resorts-golf-courses-scottish-parliament-investigation/

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

is Scottish Golf Course Finance Law anything like Philadelphia Bird Law?  

All I know is if a UWO (Unexplained Wealth Order) has been ordered on an overseas property of mine that could potentially be seized, I would do three things.  I would make sure all my financing of the project, the entire capital stack including excruciating detail on foreign LP's, was audited and scrubbed within an inch of its life.  And I would make it a point to use the same international auditing firms the very people about to investigate me use for their own deals.  That's private finance 101.  The second thing I would do is make sure I did NOT allow a member of my organization and/or family to make comments like this about the people investigating my real assets:

"Patrick Harvie is nothing more than a national embarrassment with his pathetic antics that only serve himself"  That's EVP, Eric Trump making comments about the MP bringing this financial inquiry to Parliament.  Harvie may well be a dipshit, but when dealing with another's country's finance laws...you can always hit them back later when you have better footing...but you don't open by insulting one of their elective officials in public, hours before he brings your real asset's capitalization structure before a governing body with serious teeth in the matter.  That's finance 102.  

Finance 103 is notice the party bringing this challenge is a small, but influential portion of the Parliament.  So whatever you do with Scottish Greens MP's...do not assume they are involved in the golf business as their party name suggests.  And for fuck's sakes...do not host a press conference discussing the results of your financial audits proving the UWO call as harmful and libelous at the Scottish Greens Landscaping in Coatesville, PA.  

 

Edited February 3, 2021 by Lobo

[Armybrat 41038]

“The Art of Fucking Up” would be an interesting read, particularly if ghost-written by Rudy Giuliani. 😄

[Wally Fairway 5610]

On 2/1/2021 at 5:53 PM, Aqua Buddha said:

Who said Trump is a billionaire?

The Trump cultists will stunned to learn how little money he actually has.  (They'll say it's fake news, though.)  To your point, you ticked off things real billionaires do.  Trump does none of those.  However, he does tons of things real billionaires don't do.  He slaps his name on damn near everything (buildings, steak, etc.)  Do you see Mark Cuban doing that?  No.  Donald Trump was doing godfather pizza commercials before he became a reality show host.  On one hand he wants us to believe the Trump Org is a multi national billion dollar company but Michael Cohen was the head of all legal.  M'kay.

A family office needs very high 9 figures in assets to justify the staff of accountants, lawyers, real estate people, etc.  His small office basically just does branding.

He owns two major office buildings along with Vornado who can't sell their stake due to the shitty commercial RE market.  He also owns some golf courses but owes well over a billion dollars on them and the two high rises.  He pissed away a lot of his income potential on 1/6.  Gone are the book deals and speaking tours.  He could still get a TV show but he won't be doing the work.  That's not how he rolls.  He could slap his name on something but that's about it.  "Trump TV" is the most obvious move but it's hard to get on cable and I can't see people watching his channel on YouTube.

 

I'm not gonna say that he is a flim flam man or a carnival barker, but I'm not going to say he isn't either or both of those

[Guest Lobo]

So you're saying what a lot of people are saying?  Or aren't saying?  I haven't heard anything on that, we should look into it.

Some good news for Trump's finances.  Parliament declines to open an investigation into his Scottish golf courses under UWO laws.  So that matter should be closed.  However they merely indicated it's an issue for investigators, not elected officials (and he's mostly right).  However, the choice to formally investigate is in the hands of the Lord Advocate which is far less chummy with the Trump Organization than Boris Johnson's led Parliament.  Likely nothing comes of this but it is just the opening salvo into several international holdings around the world.  All eyes should be on Albany anyway.  When only $10mm of your recently-raised $175mm legal defense fund goes to pay legal/filing fees...not a great financial look.  

[NeverMarryAStripper 22055]

I'm still terribly vexed that he could snap his fingers and raise $175 million for something that was complete bullshit.  That's a shit load of used jacked up trucks hitting the market.

 

[Guest Lobo]

I’ve always thought it unwise to doubt his salesmanship/marketing prowess.  
 

Although it’ll be studied in business ethics courses for decades, he wasn’t raising a legal defense/election challenge fund.  He was raising a Freedom Fund.  I’d be really curious to know what he invests the corpus of that fund in.  They’re not just gonna park in a savings account. You can lever the hell out it and borrowing 6x against it. 

[bolverk 29847]

Today, we learn his long-time banker from DB was forced to resign in December.

[Guest Lobo]

You wouldn’t get shitcanned just six weeks after toothless FINRA says you missed a duty to disclose point.  
 

Unless she had some Insanely long list of priors going back to NASD, this is about something else.  Even corrupt derivatives traders who traded their own margin accounts alongside the bank’s proprietary desk  for years don’t get canned over one failed duty to disclose.  They would appeal for months, maybe years.  
 

well having said all that, my thoughts and prayers are with the Vrabalic family over her pending, and mysterious, suicide.  

Edited February 4, 2021 by Lobo

[Neonmoon 38130]

She was fired. They found a reason to do it. The real reason was to purge connections to Trump. The money laundering will be pursued now. 

[bolverk 29847]

SCOTUS ordered Trump's accountants to release all relevant financial records to allow the investigation to continue.

Supreme Court Denies Trump’s Final Bid to Block Release of Financial Records
The former president’s accountants will give the records he has spent years trying to shield to New York prosecutors.

WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Monday rejected a last-ditch attempt by former President Donald J. Trump to shield his financial records, issuing a brief, unsigned order requiring Mr. Trump’s accountants to turn over his tax and other records to prosecutors in New York.

The court’s order was a decisive defeat for Mr. Trump, who had gone to extraordinary lengths to keep his tax returns and related documents secret. There were no dissents noted.

The case concerned a subpoena to Mr. Trump’s accountants, Mazars USA, by the office of the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., a Democrat. The firm has said it will comply with the final ruling of the courts, meaning that the grand jury should receive the documents in short order.

Mr. Vance issued a three-word statement in response to the court’s order: “The work continues.”

Spoiler

 

Under grand jury secrecy rules, it would ordinarily be unclear when, if ever, the public would see the information. But The New York Times has obtained more than two decades of tax return data of Mr. Trump and his companies, and it recently published a series of articles about them.

Mr. Trump, the articles said, has sustained significant losses, owes enormous debts that he is personally obligated to repay, has avoided paying federal income taxes in 11 of the 18 years The Times examined and paid just $750 in both 2016 and 2017.

The scope of Mr. Vance’s inquiry is not known. It arose partly from an investigation by his office into hush-money payments to two women who said they had affairs with Mr. Trump, relationships the president has denied. But court filings by prosecutors suggested that they are also investigating potential crimes like tax and insurance fraud.

The subpoena sought Mr. Trump’s tax records and financial statements since 2011, the engagement agreements with the accountants who prepared them, the underlying raw financial data and information about how the data were analyzed.

As a candidate in 2016, Mr. Trump promised to disclose his tax returns, but he never did. Instead, he fought hard to shield the returns from scrutiny, for reasons that have been the subject of much speculation. In 2019, the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, in New York, ruled that state prosecutors may require third parties to turn over a sitting president’s financial records for use in a grand jury investigation.

In a footnote to the decision, Judge Robert A. Katzmann said that Mr. Trump’s break with his predecessors’ practice was significant.

“We note that the past six presidents, dating back to President Carter, all voluntarily released their tax returns to the public,” Judge Katzmann wrote. “While we do not place dispositive weight on this fact, it reinforces our conclusion that the disclosure of personal financial information, standing alone, is unlikely to impair the president in performing the duties of his office.”

Mr. Trump appealed to the Supreme Court. In July, the justices soundly rejected Mr. Trump’s central constitutional argument against the subpoena — that state prosecutors are powerless to investigate a sitting president.

“No citizen, not even the president, is categorically above the common duty to produce evidence when called upon in a criminal proceeding,” Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. wrote for the majority in that decision.

Though Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. dissented from other aspects of the decision, all nine justices agreed with that proposition. But the court gave Mr. Trump another opportunity to challenge the subpoena, on narrower grounds.

“A president may avail himself of the same protections available to every other citizen,” Chief Justice Roberts wrote. “These include the right to challenge the subpoena on any grounds permitted by state law, which usually include bad faith and undue burden or breadth.”

Mr. Trump did just that, but his arguments were rejected by a trial judge and a unanimous three-judge panel of the federal appeals court in New York.

“Any documents produced under the Mazars subpoena would be protected from public disclosure by grand jury secrecy rules,” the panel said in an unsigned opinion, “which greatly reduces the plausibility of the allegation that the district attorney is acting out of a desire to embarrass the president.”

“There is nothing to suggest,” the panel added of the information sought, “that these are anything but run-of-the-mill documents typically relevant to a grand jury investigation into possible financial or corporate misconduct.”

Mr. Trump’s lawyers then filed an “emergency application” asking the Supreme Court to intercede. It urged the court to block the appeals court’s ruling while it decided whether to hear another appeal from Mr. Trump.

“Even if the disclosure of his papers is limited to prosecutors and grand jurors, the status quo can never be restored once confidentiality is destroyed,” the brief said. “But the harm will be more than irreparable if the records are publicly disclosed. It will be case-mooting — the strongest possible basis for a stay.”

In response, Mr. Vance’s lawyers — including Carey R. Dunne, who argued the case the first time around; Walter E. Dellinger III, a former acting United States solicitor general in the Clinton administration; and Michael R. Dreeben, a former longtime deputy solicitor general and a member of the team that assisted Robert S. Mueller III in investigating Russian interference in the 2016 election — pointed to the Times articles. The cat, they said, was out of the bag.

“The New York Times has obtained his tax-return data and described that data in depth in a series of articles,” Mr. Vance’s brief said. “With the details of his tax returns now public, applicant’s asserted confidentiality interests have become highly attenuated if they survive at all. And even assuming any remain, they cannot justify extraordinary relief from this court that would deprive the grand jury alone of facts available to anyone who reads the press.”

“This litigation has already substantially hampered the grand jury’s investigation,” the brief said. “No legal basis exists for the extraordinary relief that applicant requests — or remotely justifies the further delay it entails.”

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

What y'all fail to see is definitive, Dept. of Treasury information does not prove or disprove that someone is a billionaire.  

What proves a successful businessman's status as a billionaire is whether or not A Lot of People are Saying that person is a billionaire.  

I'm sure he'll contest that some mysteriously lost-to-time K-1 out there has some lump payment to him of hundreds of millions of dollars, and that alone proves he's worth 10 figures.  Meanwhile his vanilla returns will prove he's maybe worth in the tens of millions/maybe $100mm when the debt side of the ledger is taken into account.  

I'd bet 95% of his supporters think he's a billionaire and 95% of his supporters couldn't identify what kind of a corporation flow-thru "The Trump Organization" is.  And even if they did 95% of them couldn't read his balance sheet with a gun to their heads.  

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

I wonder how much pure cash he'd get if he asked everyone to sell whatever they have and give him whatever they can.  Just outright ask.

[Guest Lobo]

You mean, ask his supporters to liquidate and mail it to him or ask the divisions of his company to firesale assets?  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19246]

14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

What y'all fail to see is definitive, Dept. of Treasury information does not prove or disprove that someone is a billionaire.  

What proves a successful businessman's status as a billionaire is whether or not A Lot of People are Saying that person is a billionaire.  

I'm sure he'll contest that some mysteriously lost-to-time K-1 out there has some lump payment to him of hundreds of millions of dollars, and that alone proves he's worth 10 figures.  Meanwhile his vanilla returns will prove he's maybe worth in the tens of millions/maybe $100mm when the debt side of the ledger is taken into account.  

I'd bet 95% of his supporters think he's a billionaire and 95% of his supporters couldn't identify what kind of a corporation flow-thru "The Trump Organization" is.  And even if they did 95% of them couldn't read his balance sheet with a gun to their heads.  

That lost K-1, if not filed with the IRS, would be tax fraud.  Big time.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, the guy seems real worried about getting in tax trouble.  

(I didn't mean a literal lost K-1.  I'm saying he'll tell his supporters who don't understand complex flow-thru taxes like his that 'sure the regular return makes it look like I'm just worth $50mm, but there's these other private deals that I'm in on and really boost my balance sheet into the 10 figures.  I can't disclose them right now because they're private deals and one of the conditions of all the money I make on them is I can't disclose it publicly you see'). 

To his supporters, I ask.............All this tax/finances talk once again begs the question.....why don't the Trumps have a registered Single Family Office (term of art, not in the sense they all work together in an office building)?  A three-generation family supposedly worth in the billions.  We know most of the banks/lenders with whom he's dealt that have in-house wealth management/private client services don't work with the family in that capacity.  That would mean hundreds of millions invested in global equities and not one leak in decades from a drunken private client specialist about what positions they held.  Tens of millions, likely hundreds of millions, in private equity/private credit and not one investment consultant in the New York area knows of one single LP/co-invest/direct-deal they are in besides their own Trump Organization stuff. 

Now, a lot of wealthy families play this stuff very close to the vest for a number of obvious reasons.  But with their family being so in the limelight for 40 years, it's literally impossible that not one iota of information has leaked out about the existence, or the investment dealings, of a Trump Family Office.  I'm guessing it's because they don't meet the threshold for one and don't want anyone to know what they are like on paper.  They are certainly in the bandwidth of a Multi-Family Office but again, that would require that other wealthy people know what the Trumps are really working with and that would get out as well.  

Seriously, somebody explain to me how a 3-generation family with money in the billions doesn't have a family office.  They'd be the first one in the history of Planet Earth.  Or is that the feature, not the bug?  He's such an outsider/game-changer...he can do it all himself?  I'll accept that, because if that's the case, that's massive, criminal fraud.  If Ivanka or Donald made one family investment decision as official government employees, that's a whole 'nother ball of wax.  Maybe they didn't have one prior to January 2017, but if there was a time to incept and deploy a SFO...2017-2021 would have been it.  And again, no sign of one.  Anywhere.  In any way.  Who was watching the billions?  

Edited February 22, 2021 by Lobo

[Samson's Wig 3202]

8 hours ago, Lobo said:

I'd bet 95% of his supporters think he's a billionaire and 95% of his supporters couldn't identify what kind of a corporation flow-thru "The Trump Organization" is.  And even if they did 95% of them couldn't read his balance sheet with a gun to their heads.  

To be fair, neither could 95% of his detractors.

When it all comes to light, those who hate him will laugh and point.  Those (hopefully shrinking by the day) who love him will find a way to convince themselves he's always been successful and has been treated unfairly.  

[Guest Lobo]

29 minutes ago, Samson's Wig said:

To be fair, neither could 95% of his detractors.

When it all comes to light, those who hate him will laugh and point.  Those (hopefully shrinking by the day) who love him will find a way to convince themselves he's always been successful and has been treated unfairly.  

to be fair, that's absolutely true.  There will be laughing, pointing, and self-convincing him.  But remember, we are talking about tax law.  Unlike criminal trials or most civil trials, tax law is without any sense of humor or dignity.  A tax fraud case makes his Senate trial look like "Caddyshack" by comparison.  There won't be much to read into.  

[NeverMarryAStripper 22055]

It was good enough for Capone

[Guest Lobo]

36 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

It was good enough for Capone

What was good enough for Capone, Syphilis?  A lot of people are saying Al Capone died of Syphilis.  I dunno, that's just what I'm hearing, lot of top people saying that.  Of course he didn't pay his taxes, wasn't all that successful of a businessman.  People who are successful and do things in business that are tremendous and legal and pay their taxes, they can't get STD's no matter what human cum dumpsters they surround themselves with.  It's just a rule of nature, lot of people are saying that's true.  I dunno, just saying.  

[El Diablo 4232]

On 1/26/2021 at 9:00 AM, Lobo said:

 

"Remember, the mark of a great Confidence Man isn't that he earns your confidence.  He arranges it...so that you try to earn his."  

"Give 'em love and promise them the world".  - O.A.H. III

Guy I knew who sold "black boxes" back in the 70's. Little gizmo that seemed to endlessly print $20 bills. 

[TexasEd 8163]

On 2/22/2021 at 11:19 AM, Liquor and Poker said:

I wonder how much pure cash he'd get if he asked everyone to sell whatever they have and give him whatever they can.  Just outright ask.

 

On 2/22/2021 at 11:22 AM, Lobo said:

You mean, ask his supporters to liquidate and mail it to him or ask the divisions of his company to firesale assets?  

He'll need to file for tax exempt religious organization status first.  Go on OANN and then spread the gospel of Don to the people first.  I can't wait to hear him butcher the pronunciation of Hallelujah. 

[Guest Lobo]

Wow, it would be the literal definition of the Prosperity Gospel, no?  The more you send him, the more likely he is to defeat his legal/financial demons, which means the more likely he is to re-assume the Oval Office in 2025, which means the more money will come back to you in the form of booming economy/tax cuts?  

[Samson's Wig 3202]

9 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Wow, it would be the literal definition of the Prosperity Gospel, no?  The more you send him, the more likely he is to defeat his legal/financial demons, which means the more likely he is to re-assume the Oval Office in 2025, which means the more money will come back to you in the form of booming economy/tax cuts?  

God damnit so many people would actually fall for that.  Throw in the promise of even more pro-lifers in the judiciary and bingo bango he's back!

[Guest Lobo]

Now that I look back on it, I think I just realized that the Prosperity Gospel and Campaign Finance are one in the same.  Dammit, I could kick myself for the money I've thrown at these guys.  

Anyway, Trump's would be more financially viable though because he doesn't have a PAC or an FEC declared campaign "war-chest" yet.  The donations could be for election contesting, for legal fees, for a new exploratory committee for 2024, a "think tank", his Presidential Library.  You could dress it up a number of ways to keep it away from 501c4/FEC oversight.  But the concept is the same.  Donate $5,000 now for these myriad missions/purposes and in 2025, $25,000 will come back to you somehow.  

"$25k in 2025"     

I'll start on the hats.  

[TexasEd 8163]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Now that I look back on it, I think I just realized that the Prosperity Gospel and Campaign Finance are one in the same.  Dammit, I could kick myself for the money I've thrown at these guys.  

Anyway, Trump's would be more financially viable though because he doesn't have a PAC or an FEC declared campaign "war-chest" yet.  The donations could be for election contesting, for legal fees, for a new exploratory committee for 2024, a "think tank", his Presidential Library.  You could dress it up a number of ways to keep it away from 501c4/FEC oversight.  But the concept is the same.  Donate $5,000 now for these myriad missions/purposes and in 2025, $25,000 will come back to you somehow.  

"$25k in 2025"     

I'll start on the hats.  

24K Magic but you get the gist

 

[Guest Lobo]

Okay, let's change it to donate $4k today, get $24k back in 2024.  And this'll be the theme song.  You handle music, I'm getting started on the hats and flags.  

Remember America, check your brain at the entrance and exit through the gift shop.  Throw in a TV show to accompany this fundraising campaign, it's a can't miss. 

[TexasEd 8163]

I think Trump should stick with YMCA.  I think Bruno Mars is too "hip" for his constituents.

[atomheartbevo 90143]

3 hours ago, TexasEd said:

I think Trump should stick with YMCA.  I think Bruno Mars is too "hip" for his constituents.

You mean they will throw their hips out and/or require replacement hips if they try to dance to Bruno?

[Guest Lobo]

They won’t listen to Bruno because he’s a Puerto Rican Jew born in Hawaii, which isn’t a real state.  And because he’s probably worth more than Trump Is at this point if you count the NPV of his royalty streams.  
 

Speaking of Finances, Banon has been ordered to open up the books on the campaign/wall finance scam (ordered by the Manhattan DA).  You can argue his Pardon protects him from these crimes, but pardons don’t cover subpoenaing tax and banking records.  It’s gonna show who siphoned off what.  

but gladly dance to the music of six flaming homosexuals in the gayest outfits imaginable whilst they sing about dicks?  Goddamn right!  

[Beau Vine 55028]

On 1/26/2021 at 11:00 AM, Lobo said:

Fun fact---I am on campus right now to pitch my idea for a joint course between Dept. of Government and Dept. of Finance (where I am an adjunct lecturer) later today.  We won't be able to launch it for another few semesters but you gotta get the ball rolling somehow.  We have great courses on the politics of energy, the politics of tech, even the politics of manufacturing.  But we need a course on the politics of finance, or the failure thereof.  And what better case study to use than the rise and fall of the Trump "Empire"?  It'll take awhile to flesh out, but that's okay...Trump's colossal business ineptitudes and political corruption will take awhile to unpack and UT moves slowly anyway.  I just want to be the first major university in the United States to offer this course.  Already have the support of LBJ School and the Tower, not bad assets with which to start.  If I can get the Ransom Center to loan us David Mamet, this will be a legendary course with possibly movie rights:

"Remember, the mark of a great Confidence Man isn't that he earns your confidence.  He arranges it...so that you try to earn his."

I'm stealing this idea and teaching it as a Special Topics course next fall.  Thanks.

[Guest Lobo]

Please do.  Where do you teach by the way?  
We are starting with the premise that you have to give him massive kudos.  I have worked on complex workouts—-refinancing, debt restructuring, hedged asset sales, private credit, PE recapitalization, etc.  all time consuming, all pricey, and all very painful.  But to stave off the impeding credit crunch to his company, Trump pulled off the most difficult workout of all—-he got elected President of the United States and he made it look easy and fun.  And now he has a base, a cause, and a contribution infrastructure from which he and his Family Can draW for years and years.  

nothing like this has ever been conceived of in finance, Let alone pulled off. 

[safe sex 11813]

Mamet turned into a psycho right-winger after 9/11. 😔

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

On 2/22/2021 at 11:22 AM, Lobo said:

You mean, ask his supporters to liquidate and mail it to him or ask the divisions of his company to firesale assets?  

The former.  He could ask them to just send everything to his Protect America fund or something with amorphous goals to Keep America Great.  
I’m just curious how many would anything vs. how many would send enough $$ to financially harm themselves. 

[TexasEd 8163]

1 hour ago, Liquor and Poker said:

The former.  He could ask them to just send everything to his Protect America fund or something with amorphous goals to Keep America Great.  
I’m just curious how many would anything vs. how many would send enough $$ to financially harm themselves. 

It's a cult.  You know how those things work.

Edited February 25, 2021 by TexasEd

[Guest Lobo]

10 hours ago, trauma babe said:

Mamet turned into a psycho right-winger after 9/11. 😔

I don't know that I'd call him a psycho right-winger back then.  You've probably read his book "The Secret Knowledge", for his first decade or so on the right, I get the sense it was more borne from a frustration with the idiocy of Hollywood politics (he was an early condemner of Weinstein).  The actors and studio heads lecture the rest of the country on politics and behaviors, and they themselves are horrible people with no sense of true progressivism, they treat women like shit, and keep all the money to themselves to use on lifestyles from which they can lecture us about certain issues.  I suspect his hatred is also enhanced by the fact that Hollywood continues to marginalize writers.  He spoke about all this at length on a number of occasions when he brought his archives and papers to UT's Ransom Center about 10 years ago.  He was approaching it more from a pro-liberty, economics standpoint as well, following Hayek, et. al.  And then the left's continued betrayal of Israel, of which Mamet is iron-clad about.  So mix in all that, and you get a disenfranchised writer with a big reputation in Hollywood.  He's a man with no country, so he attaches to the libertarian-right wing of the party.  Other than his adamant fans, I don't think anyone knew or cared about this for the 15 years between 2001-2016.  I certainly didn't.  I agree with a good deal of his skepticism, his search for responsible liberty, and his exhaustion with being condescended to by pretty people who talk to one another on camera for a living.  

But he fucking lost me in 2016.  Just another example of somebody I consider to be extremely intelligent who fell for the financial con.  Then he started giving a shit about all these bullshit cultural issues that were just cosmetic like the National Anthem and embassy movements.  the guy who always told us his stories were about substance, not style...suddenly only cares about style.  His idolization is just beyond puzzling to me.  The guy has made his career seeing through the bullshit of people and cutting right to their core motives, and then adding a layer of language (what the industry lauds as "Mamet Speak") to those characters with which they work towards those motives.  There is not one wasted scene or line of dialogue in a Mamet script, he is praised by fan and critic alike for that feat.  And then he goes and worships at the feet of a guy who uses maybe 400 words in a good day?  It will never make any sense to me.  I doubt I'll ever to get hear him talk about it again since I doubt UT ever invites him back to speak except maybe to private donors.  

Okay, back to finances.  Last of Trump's tax returns were turned over to the DA's office this morning.  Names to watch in the coming weeks from Ladder Capital (lowest hanging fruit since they did the most recent credit due diligence on Trump/Trump Org.) are Peter Harris and Michael Scarola.  I'm assuming this 17-month fight to obfuscate these financial records is because they'll prove that Trump is so wealthy, in the tens of billions, that it'll make him seem out of touch with the rest of us?  

Also, why don't you ever hear from Alan Garten?  Trump Organization's General Counsel/CLO.  Trump keeps wheeling out one shitty lawyer after another when it comes to his tax returns, campaign finances, new legal/election fraud fund, etc.  Meanwhile Garten has keeps the wheels humming at Trump Org. for well over a decade, presumably very familiar with the legal and financial dealings of the Trump family.  Why not get him in the mix?  

[52-80 19287]

On 1/26/2021 at 6:00 PM, Lobo said:

 

Fun fact---I am on campus right now to pitch my idea for a joint course between Dept. of Government and Dept. of Finance (where I am an adjunct lecturer)

learning this kinda scares me

[horn4life 3819]

Trump cheats.  If you are going to routinely cheat at playing golf with friends, as has been very widely reported. Then you will cheat at anything, IMHO.  

Trump learned from his father how not to pay his fair share and cheat on his taxes.  Now there are VERY creative and complicated accounting in Real Estate that make depreciation based on the property value key in commercial real estate.   Simply because that depreciation is what keeps you from paying income tax on those incoming flows that are offset by the depreciation and other expenses.  To put the money into more real estate or in your pocket. It's also the basis for your net worth, and is especially important if using a potentially inflated value as the basis for banks making decisions on your credit worthiness.

The exact opposite is true of course from the property taxation side, where the lower value is preferred to reduce the tax bill.  

I would assume that the desire to maximize the value for depreciation, and the temptation to provide a different lesser value for taxation purposes was likely too tempting for a golf cheat.  Interesting if The Trump organization was not a small and very closely held family corporation it would be nearly impossible to not get caught if you were using one value for bank loans and depreciation, and that smaller value for the tax rolls.  Simply as some former employee would eventually see what was going on and blow the whistle.  

What may be the most interesting part of the poking and prodding of the Trump organization is how much it may or may not bleed over to his children.  In such a closely held organization , that convictions for Trump could also very well mean convictions for children.  

 

ps- I believe that in Texas for example the local appraisal districts are prohibited from using the MLS sales of Commercial Real Estate to establish value.. Correct me if I am wrong.  But it was so weird it stuck in my head.

Edited February 25, 2021 by horn4life

[Guest Lobo]

18 months since Trump became a resident of Florida.  4 months since he moved there full-time.  No record in Florida or with the SEC of him moving his single-family office from New York to Florida.  This has to be done for form 13 purposes (E thru G).  No record of any family office in New York either, for that matter.  Making him the only multi-billionaire in the United States to not be materially engaged with an SFO, MFO, or endowment.  I suppose he has some less than 5% pool in a collaborative RIA vehicle somewhere that can remain discrete but such a small and silent position seems to go against his business and investment ethos.  

Extraordinarily rare that someone with a $2.5bn net worth does not file the same stuff as every other person with just 10% of that net worth.  

No judging, just a curious lack of developments from a financial/investment perspective 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

[Guest Lobo]

Actually, only reason I found out is an RIA I know in SE Florida was trying to pitch them on handling a chunk of the family investable assets and he did all this legwork.  He also tried to do the same thing with Obama after his massive book advance, and I know tried to pitch something to the Clintons.  I told my friend that he's America's most distinguished ambulance chaser, he considers the moniker to be an honor.  /csb

[Armybrat 41038]

He should be looking in the Caymans.

[Pato del Muerto 52974]

26 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

He should be looking in the Caymans.

And Germany and China 

[Guest Lobo]

I found some Germans in the Caymans once.  They had this weird way about them, like they were upset somebody knew they were German.  I dunno, I got the vibe they didn't want people to know they were there.  Strange. 

[LABEVO 928]